Star Wars: The Force Awakens On Track For A Record-Breaking Opening Weekend
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Most definitely. Revenge of the Sith was over 80% fresh on RT.
Come to Butt-Head
Banned
I've seen your posts in the movie threads previously, and I know that you're knowledgeable when it comes to this sort of thing. Has anything that's been revealed recently changed your opinion on how successful TFA will be?
For myself, I didn't know that TFA would be playing straight through from Thursday to Monday. Surely that would increase your predictions, no?
You realize that a $110M third weekend would mean that your bottom end gross would be like $1.1B domestic right?
Also, I Am Legend opened to $77M, so it's first weekend percentage was over 30%. Some of the other films you listed opened on Wednesday.
I'm not sure what you mean by recently. My prediction back at the beginning of October for the GAF winter game before we had any preorder data was already pretty high ($180M OW/$680M DOM). I think I mentioned in the preorder thread that I wouldn't be that surprised to see the OW record fall if Thursday/Friday is big enough. Likewise, if the WOM is there, and Star Wars sets an opening weekend record, I wouldn't be completely shocked to see the domestic record fall. I just don't think those things are a lock yet.
It's really hard to make anything resembling an accurate prediction before a film actually launches, even if you are knowledgeable about Box Office trends. I don't think my predictions are any better than most other people here who at least have some passing knowledge of domestic box office. There are too many factors to consider. Once I have some data to look at, then sure, I am usually pretty good at extrapolating forward. We'll know whether The Force Awakens has any shot at Avatar after 10 days (unless OW ends up being the ridiculous $250-300M that some of the more insanely optimistic posters are expecting. Obviously we would know much sooner in that case).
Surprise Blu-Ray release.
nope. that was the first indication that the wii u wasn't even going to come close to the wii. I showed up at 7AM to my local future shop and was first in line. with wii launch, I showed up 7PM the night before and was 30th in line.
I don't recall presales for a movie ever crashing a ticket sale website/app. the hype is very real with this film.
Mengy
wishes it were bannable to say mean things about Marvel
I love both Titanic and Avatar, but if any movie has a chance to top them both earning's wise, SW7 is it.
It's extremely improbable that The Force Awakens will top Avatar Worldwide. Even topping Titanic worldwide will be very difficult.
Come to Butt-Head
Banned
It honestly feels like if TFA can't do it, no movie will.
It's kind of depressing, really.
sixteen-bit
Member
Mengy
wishes it were bannable to say mean things about Marvel
I agree it's improbable but I do think it has a chance to do it. If JJ really hits this one out of the park, I mean really captures the essence of what made the first trilogy great, then I think it will come very close and might actually take the top spot of all time worldwide.
If SW7 doesn't do it then it's going to be a long, loonngggg time before any movie does.
The problem with The Force Awakens taking the #1 spot worldwide, is that it ignores the fact that the US dollar is very strong vs global currencies at the moment (especially compared to 2010), and it makes the assumption that Star Wars is as big worldwide as it is domestically.
The Force Awakens needs to make around $2B overseas to have a shot at toppling Avatar, even if it matches or exceeds it domestically. Age of Ultron and Jurassic World combined were under $2B.
The Force Awakens needs to make around $2B overseas to have a shot at toppling Avatar, even if it matches or exceeds it domestically. Age of Ultron and Jurassic World combined were under $2B.
Come to Butt-Head
Banned
I hear what you're saying, but isn't China a much bigger factor now then how it was in 2010?
CadetMahoney
Member
ouch.
It's not a bigger factor than it was earlier this year for Jurassic World and Age of Ultron.
I think you misquoted that, but I should have said Avatar
Titanic still requires a hefty overseas gross to topple, but it's not $2B
Come to Butt-Head
Banned
If it's well-received in China, I meant. Can't a movie live or die just from the performance in China?
Skellig Gra
Member
No doubt the hype is huge but how broad of an appeal is the hype? Yes us nerds are frothing at the mouth for this shit but the general public? We'll see.
To put it into even better perspective. The MOST that any Star Wars movie has ever done as a % of total box office internationally is Revenge of the Sith at 55.2%. Even if TFA somehow blows apart box office records domestically and makes it to 1 billion and it manages to increase the international % of the series to 60% making over 1.5 billion internationally, it still falls over 100 million short of Avatar.
i mean
star wars is pretty huge
if the "general public" isn't frothing at the mouth for this film they probably aren't frothing at the mouth for any film
Skellig Gra
Member
Put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised if it blew away box office records but I think its hard (for me) to delineate what is reality with this unprecedented marketing blitz they are doing right now.
Discotheque
Banned
I still don't think it will beat jurassic's opening weekend but I think it will topple fast 7 and both avengers movies in the box office overall. Possibly even be the biggest movie of the year
Normally, yes, but when you start getting into the $2-3B range worldwide, I don't think China is as important as it might be in the $500M-1B range where you usually get those live or die cases. A crazy run for Star Wars in China would be $400M. It would still have to gross close to $1.6B elsewhere overseas to hit that $2B mark.
No film other than Avatar and Titanic has even grossed $1B overseas outside of China. Jurassic World was about $800M. Furious 7 a little over $750M. Age of Ultron was just over $700M. The closest to the $1B mark overseas minus China is still Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt 2 at around $900M. Harry Potter was much bigger than Star Wars overseas when the two were concurrent during the prequel trilogy. Conversely, Star Wars was much bigger than Harry Potter domestically during that period.
John Dunbar
correct about everything
edit: okay, sorry.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
That hasn't gone over super well the last two times someone let it fly.
Simo
Member
Just saw this posted for you folks: Wall Street Journal: Star Wars has sold more than $50 Million in advance tickets, breaking all-time pre-sales records 4 WEEKS before it opens
Sadly you need a subscription to read the full article.
Sadly you need a subscription to read the full article.
ReturnOfTheRAT
Member
I remember this and enjoyed it quite a bit.
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