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[MrDaravon]

Domestic I can see, WW probably won't beat Avatar unless it winds up being a phenomenal film and it gets people going back just because of that or something.

Have a very old friend who has worked as a manager at a movie theater chain for almost 20 years at some of the biggest theaters in the country, and he keeps saying the advance sales for this are unlike anything he's ever seen by orders of magnitude. I suppose the question becomes is that what almost everyone is doing and then it's just going to dry up fairly quickly after that or will it keep going?

 

[BronsonLee]

"Ok" is better than avatar

From a tech side, Avatar is undeniably best in class though. Still is. It's more about the quality of the 3D vs the quality of the movie

 

[Vire]

It's going to have to with the amount of marketing they spent on this movie.

I bet you they spent more on marketing than the production of the movie.

 

[shortsFortallPeople]

Plenty did.

well i mean yeah the trailers werent very good but I want to say that most went into Ultron being optimistic about it. Otherwise, why would you go see it in the theater if you thought you were in for a turd?

 

[pestul]

I guess it's possible, but the film has to be at least good. If it falls between prequels and originals.. it won't make it. If it's better than RotJ, then I could see it.

 

[Oersted]

We never had so many Box Office Prediction threads like we have(and will have)about Force Awakens, didn't we?

 

[BronsonLee]

It's going to have to with the amount of marketing they spent on this movie.

I bet you they spent more on marketing than the production of the movie.

That's not as uncommon as you might think, you know. Especially for big blockbusters.

 

[Sorcerer]

I think if you don't have your tickets bought by now you aren't seeing it opening weekend. Certainly not twice. There is a finite limit on screen availability.

I think day time shows are readily available at least during the week.

I purchased tickets yesterday for Friday Morning, Dec 18th. But my area is weird, it seems to resist the hype on so many things.

 

[BronsonLee]

We never had so many Box Office Prediction threads like we have(and will have)about Force Awakens, didn't we?

It's almost like they make a damn thread for every single article about the box office tracking for Star Wars

 

[wachie]

We never had so many Box Office Prediction threads like we have(and will have)about Force Awakens, didn't we?

Don't worry, Avatar 2 will warrant more threads.

Spoiler

in 2019

 

[gdt]

It's going to have to with the amount of marketing they spent on this movie.

I bet you they spent more on marketing than the production of the movie.

Not uncommon at all.

We never had so many Box Office Prediction threads like we have(and will have)about Force Awakens, didn't we?

Avatar's all went into one crazy Sculli thread for years I think. That was before the "new news, new thread" policy.

Actually there was a point where Sculli posted every fart Cameron pushed through his cheeks but then people forced him into 1 thread where Gaf talked about Avatar for years.

 

[cacildo]

One question about advance tickets...

"Advance tickets already in 50 million"
Then
"Advance tickets may reach 100million!!"

And then... nothing
And this was some two weeks ago, wasnt it? What happened? Did it simply stop?

 

[AtomnayaKlubnika]

Why is there so many pessemistic guys about TFA bo estimate? I mean I wish I was JJ right now, this guy is gonna be more loaded than ever.
lol at people thinking TFA will be okay. It will be good. It'll bring the OT feels with new and more relevant elements(and I don't even think OT is less relevant today). Hell, it'll be the Star Wars movie we all waited for. Guys, we're home.

 

[God Dayumm]

"Ok" is better than avatar

And Avatar is better than most movies, including those of Marvel

 

[Skellig Gra]

Why is there so many pessemistic guys about TFA bo estimate? I mean I wish I was JJ right now, this guy is gonna be more loaded than ever.
lol at people thinking TFA will be okay. It will be good. It'll bring the OT feels with new and more relevant elements(and I don't even think OT is less relevant today). Hell, it'll be the Star Wars movie we all waited for. Guys, we're home.

Some of us are way too old and cynical to take things on blind faith.

 

[IamMattFox]

This is going to be our generations' 'Star Wars,' you guys.

 

[Shepard]

Why is there so many pessemistic guys about TFA bo estimate? I mean I wish I was JJ right now, this guy is gonna be more loaded than ever.
lol at people thinking TFA will be okay. It will be good. It'll bring the OT feels with new and more relevant elements(and I don't even think OT is less relevant today). Hell, it'll be Star Wars movie we all waited for. Guys, we're home.

I don't think most people are being pessimistic, more like realistic. When we talk about beating Avatar and Jurassic World, we're Basically saying this will tread a path the none of the prequels did; hell, we're talking about it being the highest grossing movie of all time, so of course these opinions will be received with some scepticism.

 

[darkwing]

only 220M? isn't that a bit too low

 

[shortsFortallPeople]

only 220M? isn't that a bit too low

compared to what?

 

[BronsonLee]

only 220M? isn't that a bit too low

What the fuck, no
That's the highest opening weekend in history by a comfortable margin

 

[Sorcerer]

only 220M? isn't that a bit too low

For a total domestic run, perhaps, but through the roof for a single weekend.

 

[Surfinn]

Haha. I think there's going to be a lot of people here surprised at both the movie's quality and success (in a good way). I'd personally love to see this movie blow away JW and Avatar, especially if it turns out to be as good as it could be.

One week left.. time to get hyped.

 

[ryan299]

One question about advance tickets...

"Advance tickets already in 50 million"
Then
"Advance tickets may reach 100million!!"

And then... nothing
And this was some two weeks ago, wasnt it? What happened? Did it simply stop?

People realized that unless you live in a major city you don't need to buy advanced tickets lol. I live in a populated area and not one of the 4 theaters around me is sold out on Thursday night. Most people will probably wait until early next week to buy theirs.

Domestically the film will probably end in the 500-600 range and won't be close to Avatar ww. It's not the same type of event film as Avatar was. Avatar was marketed as the next big thing in filmmaking. An evolution to it bc of it's visual effects, mo-cap, etc. This is why it has such strong world of mouth, bc it certainly wasn't the story, which was the same as Dances with Wolves, that attracted people.

TFA isn't any of that and that's why unless it's the greatest film ever made, it won't come close. 1.7-1.8 billion worldwide.

 

[Busty]

Who can say for certain what will come to pass but if I had to put my money on it...,

I doubt it will outgross Jurassic World (US)

This is the bet I would make.

 

[OnPoint]

Anecdotally, I didn't see Avatar or Jurassic World in theatres. But I may go see this multiple times.

 

[BronsonLee]

Who can say for certain what will come to pass but if I had to put my money on it...,

This is the bet I would make.

Busty don't
This is how people die

 

[Busty]

Busty don't
This is how people die

Sooner or later, every man got to make a stand.

Looks like I'm makin' mine today.

*takes draw on cigarette*

Anecdotally, I didn't see Avatar or Jurassic World in theatres. But I may go see this multiple times.

I may fuck Jennifer Lawrence but I wouldn't put down any money on it.

 

[Senoculum]

I'm betting my coworkers that it gets about 158 million - and not beating Jurassic World. Damn. My lunch money is on the line, so... I hope Star Wars isn't as popular as it appears to be

(I already have my tickets for IMAX on Friday and Saturday...)

 

[ryutaro's mama]

It's going to have to with the amount of marketing they spent on this movie.

I bet you they spent more on marketing than the production of the movie.

The cross marketing promotions heavily offset the cost, methinks.

 

[Abounder]

Marathon tickets and having IMAX on lockdown will help beat JW domestically.

Box office might as well be just sweet gravy at this point anyway, Lucasfilm is swimming in money from plastic crack merch ala Scrooge McDuck. Party like its 1999, y2khai

 

[Vire]

The cross marketing promotions heavily offset the cost, methinks.

That's true, I'm sure all these car companies and whatnot are paying them a small fortune to use the Star Wars license.

 

[Shuggananas]

Haha. I think there's going to be a lot of people here surprised at both the movie's quality and success (in a good way). I'd personally love to see this movie blow away JW and Avatar, especially if it turns out to be as good as it could be.

One week left.. time to get hyped.

How would you know about its quality ?

 

[Nibel]

Why are domestic sales seen as the biggest success? Isn't WW always much more important?

 

[Busty]

I'm betting my coworkers that it gets about 158 million - and not beating Jurassic World. Damn. My lunch money is on the line, so... I hope Star Wars isn't as popular as it appears to be

(I already have my tickets for IMAX on Friday and Saturday...)

Disney literally be taking the food out of this poor boy's mouth.

*shakes head*

 

[PeskyToaster]

They'll definitely give it a second run if it has a shot at beating Avatar.

 

[Gonzalez]

No big deal... Avatar 2 is around the corner. "The King of The World" will take back his crown once again like always.

 

[gdt]

Why are domestic sales seen as the biggest success? Isn't WW always much more important?

They make less on the dollar in foreign territories.

So it's about equal really, given that OS is usually way more these days.

 

[injurai]

Say goodbye to the thrown James Cameron.

 

[Surfinn]

How would you know about its quality ?

I was trying to say that I THINK the quality and success are going to be great, not that they automatically will be. And that I think people will be positively surprised with both.

 

[Senoculum]

Why are domestic sales seen as the biggest success? Isn't WW always much more important?

Domestic is much more accountable, the margins are better, and is taxed differently. WW has exchange rates, and special theatres have private equity firms that get paid first (and are sometimes shady). WW only became a heavyweight in the past 5-6 years, when the USD plummeted and China saw huge growth. It now accounts for 60% of the box office intake, which is pretty damn impressive. You're not wrong, but historically, WW was always an afterthought.

 

[FoneBone]

I think if you don't have your tickets bought by now you aren't seeing it opening weekend. Certainly not twice. There is a finite limit on screen availability.

This is not true at all... maybe by next week it will be, maybe, but right now (looking at Fandango in cities like NYC) availability is still plentiful.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Problem will probably be China. The other movies aren't famous here. So who knows how well it will end up selling here.

 

[bigosc2k]

I'm betting my coworkers that it gets about 158 million - and not beating Jurassic World. Damn. My lunch money is on the line, so... I hope Star Wars isn't as popular as it appears to be

(I already have my tickets for IMAX on Friday and Saturday...)

You already lost your lunch.

 

[Nibel]

They make less on the dollar in foreign territories.

So it's about equal really, given that OS is usually way more these days.

Domestic is much more accountable, the margins are better, and is taxed differently. WW has exchange rates, and special theatres have private equity firms that get paid first (and are sometimes shady). WW only became a heavyweight in the past 5-6 years, when the USD plummeted and China saw huge growth. It now accounts for 60% of the box office intake, which is pretty damn impressive. You're not wrong, but historically, WW was always an afterthought.

Oh, that makes totally sense. Thanks for clearing that up guys!

 

[CassSept]

Domestically the film will probably end in the 500-600 range and won't be close to Avatar ww.

Come on son, 500 would put it only slightly ahead of TPM, and that was over 15 years ago with some toxic wom. It should easily clear 600, question is how far beyond it'll go.

 

[gdt]

Let's rustle some jimmies....



Avatar has had better word of mouth than all your favs.

Avatar will have better word of mouth than The Force Awakens.

 

[Dead]

Come on son, 500 would put it only slightly ahead of TPM, and that was over 15 years ago with some toxic wom. It should easily clear 600, question is how far beyond it'll go.

People still went to see TPM over and over, I dont think it was really affected by toxic word of mouth.

TPM was still immensely successful in the US, but its not a surprise it couldn't reach Titanic.

 

[BronsonLee]

Let's rustle some jimmies....

Avatar has had better word of mouth than all your favs.

Avatar will have better word of mouth than The Force Awakens.

Avatar's word of mouth was so good that I think it actually had a weekend that did better than the previous one.

That NEVER happens.

 

[Dead]

Avatar's BO legend will never be outdone.

The first weekend it made ~77Mil and people were already claiming it was underperforming, that Cameron was nuts, etc, etc.

Then came the Weekdays

Then came the ~75Mil 2nd weekend

lol

 

[Anth0ny]

Let's rustle some jimmies....



Avatar has had better word of mouth than all your favs.

Avatar will have better word of mouth than The Force Awakens.

yeah no shit but from my experience the positive wom entirely consisted of "Did you see Avatar? It was AMAZING. The 3D was AMAZING" and no mention of the plot, characters, memorable scenes or anything else that would actually make a movie good other than pretty visuals