The Force Awakens OW tracking @ 170-220M, BO.com predicting to outgross Avatar

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Vire said:
It's going to have to with the amount of marketing they spent on this movie.

I bet you they spent more on marketing than the production of the movie.
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Actually, it seems like Disney is being pretty smart with money when it comes to marketing the movie.

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/daddys-home-top-commercial-ad-spend-1201656759/

The latest installment in the beloved saga saw an estimated $5.5 million spent, bringing its lifetime total as of Dec. 6 to $16.9 million. (The figures count only for the 11 official trailers the studio had in national TV ad rotation last week).
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Why so low? “Star Wars” is gaining TV exposure in the form of show integrations across Disney-owned networks and is setting a new high mark for co-branded promotions, with 16 brands creating 34 unique ads promoting the film for an additional spend of over $40 million to date.
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220 isn't low but I kind of expected it to track higher


Maybe this is a dumb question but with the fact that theatres having to add 24/7 showings at like 3 and 5 am to accommodate demand, shouldn't we expect this to gross significantly more than JW based on that alone? I mean if they're adding those shorties then the rest of them must have been nearly sold out.
 
bananafactory said:
220 isn't low but I kind of expected it to track higher


Maybe this is a dumb question but with the fact that theatres having to add 24/7 showings at like 3 and 5 am to accommodate demand, shouldn't we expect this to gross significantly more than JW based on that alone? I mean if they're adding those shorties then the rest of them must have been nearly sold out.
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220 is ludicrous if you ask me. Crazy.
 
They probably don't have to spend much money on marketing because people are paying them to get Star Wars on their products. It's everybody else hitching their wagon to the hype train.
 
bananafactory said:
220 isn't low but I kind of expected it to track higher


Maybe this is a dumb question but with the fact that theatres having to add 24/7 showings at like 3 and 5 am to accommodate demand, shouldn't we expect this to gross significantly more than JW based on that alone? I mean if they're adding those shorties then the rest of them must have been nearly sold out.
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220 is significantly more than what JW opened with. That's basically the pipe dream openings of TDKR and AOU come to reality.
 
Anth0ny said:
I'd honestly be surprised if Avatar 2 even cracked a billion, let alone came anywhere close to Avatar 1.


same shit happened with Empire Strikes Back. Star Wars, like Avatar, was the event film that everyone went to check out. The sequel didn't have the same pull, even though it was coming off the highest grossing film of all time.
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Avatar 2 won't crack a billion?



Lol wut
 
CassSept said:
Read the op. Domestic.

It has a shot at domestic cumulative gross, no way it outgrosses Avatar OS though.
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It definitely has a shot at outgrossing Avatar OS.

SCULLIBUNDO said:
History.

This is 1999 all over again.

"You better watch out, Cameron! Titanic is going down! STAR WARS is BACK! Ain't nothing going to stop it!"
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It's only 1999 all over again if you think Force Awakens will be as bad as Episode 1. It's not likely to beat Avatar, but it could if it lives up to the hype.
 
TheKaeptain said:
I don't think people understand how much Avatar made.

Star Wars is getting that #2 spot though.
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Not sure why people are saying there's no possibility, because there isn't any real evidence to suggest it. I'm sure there were a plethora of people who said JW wouldn't be close to achieving 208. I understand those aren't worldwide, all-time numbers, but the point is that it's ridiculous to deal in absolutes, especially considering sources that are projecting insanely high numbers for this movie (insert Sith gif).
 
Surfinn said:
Not sure why people are saying there's no possibility, because there isn't any real evidence to suggest it. I'm sure there were a plethora of people who said JW wouldn't be close to achieving 208. I understand those aren't worldwide, all-time numbers, but the point is that it's ridiculous to deal in absolutes, especially considering sources that are projecting insanely high numbers for this movie (insert Sith gif).
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$2,787,965,087
 
BronsonLee said:
Avatar's word of mouth was so good that I think it actually had a weekend that did better than the previous one.

That NEVER happens.
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Titanic's highest weekend take was in its sixth week.

JimJamJones said:
But when you look at the reaction then, and the reaction today, it's quite different. The allure of the technology and CG made it a huge film, whereas today - when you wipe that away - it does not have the same impression. In fact, the story itself is a retelling of 2 or 3 other films.
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Just like The Force Awakens.
 
My guess it won't even beat Titanic. Big opening, weak legs imo. (And by weak it will probably stay number 1 for at least a month with decent drops starting after xmas)
 
I really wish box offices used ticket sales instead of money made to track movie success. It's basically impossible to compare older movies to modern ones because of it.
 
Neoxon said:
It wouldn't be impossible. As stated earlier, Star Wars is one of the biggest IPs in the world. If Episode VII get a 2nd run in theaters, it might have a shot.
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Nah. Ep 1 was hyped to the moon and it blew out its tires before it even got to the same city as Titanic.

You don't get to JC numbers off hype. TFW will hit big, and I mean big. But it'll phase out. That's what all hyped sequel films do.
 
HenryGale said:
Wut? What about JW then?
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JW did exceptionally well despite the dollar. The Avengers underperforming was all domestic. I did the calcs in another thread but I think Avengers 2 would have outgrossed the first if the dollar had remained the same value.

As for Avatar, compare the euro to dollar then and now.
 
milanbaros said:
JW did exceptionally well despite the dollar. The Avengers underperforming was all domestic. I did the calcs in another thread but I think Avengers 2 would have outgrossed the first if the dollar had remained the same value.

As for Avatar, compare the euro to dollar then and now.
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Of course. It's deflation of the euro dollar that made Avatar gross more than a billion worldwide over the next non-Cameron film.
 
Wanna say there were rumblings from some writers that Critic Screening are Next Tuesday (15th) Embargo is up on the (16th) and the move starts showing on the (17th)

However, There are a few sites that got invited to the Premiere Monday night. and I wouldn't be shocked to see reviews coming from them Monday night.
 
Ohwiseone said:
Wanna say there were rumblings from some writers that Critic Screening are Next Tuesday (15th) Embargo is up on the (16th) and the move starts showing on the (17th)

However, There are a few sites that got invited to the Premiere Monday night. and I wouldn't be shocked to see reviews coming from them Monday night.
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The trades will be at the screening on the 14th.
 
Anth0ny said:
I'd honestly be surprised if Avatar 2 even cracked a billion, let alone came anywhere close to Avatar 1.
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Quoting this post in a few years is going to be fun.

The amount of mental contortion that some posters here perform in attempting to explain Avatar's BO numbers is comical.
 
I remember that when I bought Avatar on BluRay a few years ago, never having watched it, the guy behind me in line and the cashier started telling me how great the movie was.
Don't fool yourself, the movie was received very well by mainstream audiences.
 
El Topo said:
I remember that when I bought Avatar on BluRay a few years ago, never having watched it, the guy behind me in line and the cashier started telling me how great the movie was.
Don't fool yourself, the movie was received very well by mainstream audiences.
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Naw, people the internet told me everyone hated it so I guess I will believe that over facts to the contrary.
 
ryutaro's mama said:
Naw, people the internet told me everyone hated it so I guess I will believe that over facts to the contrary.
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As a story it's definitely flawed, but Cameron's unrivaled at this point in terms of making movies that absolutely need to be experienced in the theater. From a technical aspect, there's really nobody crazier. The fucker will try anything.
 
gdt said:
Let's rustle some jimmies....



Avatar has had better word of mouth than all your favs.

Avatar will have better word of mouth than The Force Awakens.
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It still amazes me that, despite how successful the movie was, no one talks about Avatar outside of box office. No one gives two shits about it.
 
BronsonLee said:
As a story it's definitely flawed, but Cameron's unrivaled at this point in terms of making movies that absolutely need to be experienced in the theater. From a technical aspect, there's really nobody crazier. The fucker will try anything.
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He also knows how to tell a palatable story that gets said asses in seats. It's not an easy thing that he pulls off. The lazy approach is to say, "Hurr, hurr, it's just Pocahontas/Dances With Wolves/Ferngully In Space" to make oneself feel like that "saw through it all".

Congrats, you identified the basis for the movie but the execution is what people liked. I have always said this and I maintain it even till this day:

James had to get you to accept the risk of making 9 foot tall smurf believable for 2 hours and 40 minutes. I understand why he went with a timeless story of man goes native for a culture and woman he falls for. Any major risks in that movie narratively and the entire thing possibly falls apart.

It's like calling out George Lucas for using the Hero's Journey template for ANH. :|
 
Lebron said:
Nah. Ep 1 was hyped to the moon and it blew out its tires before it even got to the same city as Titanic.

You don't get to JC numbers off hype. TFW will hit big, and I mean big. But it'll phase out. That's what all hyped sequel films do.
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EP 1 had a lot of hype followed by instant backlash

See where the numbers are... imagine if the movie was well received? It would have destroyed Titanic.

JW got its number due to tugging on nostalgia strings even though it was a pretty eh movie. TFA, if it gets good impressions, should handily trump JW. If it has great impressions? Avatar is done.

Word of mouth is incredibly powerful in the movie industry. The movie also has massive appeal across many generations. Kids that were 10 when the originals came out are almost 50 now. So they basically have all age groups locked in if it's considered a good movie. This movie appeals to more audiences than the prequels ever did.
 
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