It'll probably end up as the 3rd highest grossing film overseas of all time which makes the discussion of why Star Wars isn't catching on outside of America pretty amusing and confusing.
Wkd Box Office 1225-2715 - Star Wars never changes. 1B+ global BO for new record
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It'll probably end up as the 3rd highest grossing film overseas of all time which makes the discussion of why Star Wars isn't catching on outside of America pretty amusing and confusing.
All the more ironic that Jurassic World is used to prove how it is not popular overseas when it is on track to gross more than JW overseas. I really don't get it at all.
Angelus Errare
Banned
I dunno man, I think Aang could take a Jedi. Movie Aang probably couldn't though.
It's already been proven to have more appeal! It's been doing better and been having better legs so far overseas as well as domestically. What in the world are you basing this on other than "people like dinosaurs"? The numbers do not back ANY of your wild claims.
But that's the thing, at least theoretically, most of Europe should have enjoyed the same exposure. The only difference I can think of, or rather two differnces, but both probably shouldn't matter too much:
1) TV is lacking behind to some degree. As in: Most of Europe had no privatized TV Station until the early 1980s.
2) (Late night) Talkshows. Obviously even if we had them to some capacity getting Americans to appear here is more difficult and a rarer occurence.
But I have a hard time thinking that this really influences things all that much. Because much of the same could be said for Transformers or any of the super hero movies, which have a realtively to the USA have bigger world wide following than Star Wars. And they too would have enjoyed much of the same benefits as Star Wars did, no?
Zuko is so much better than Kylo Ren.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
Hopefully it drops like a rock so Cameron can maintain dominance domestically and abroad.
We're at 544 million right now, do you really believe that SW will nearly double that, especially now that we're in a post-holiday period?
Abroad, Cameron will easily hold his lead.
Domestic will be interesting to see.
BronsonLee
Member
Uppercuts for you both, dammit
Your subversive tactics will not save you!
More relevant is where it ends up by the end of next week, which will probably be somewhere around $750 million. $850 million is probably the bare minimum finish if it completely collapses. Over $900 million is far more likely. $2 billion+ worldwide is pretty much a lock.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
lol @ people who still don't understand how much this film is crushing domestic. "Domestic will be interesting."
It's like watching somebody hand-dig a little moat around their sandcastle on the shore while Tea Leoni clutches her daddy 2ft away.
It's like watching somebody hand-dig a little moat around their sandcastle on the shore while Tea Leoni clutches her daddy 2ft away.
If you add up it's remaining weekends alone it would still go over $750M by the time it's all over. It's a stone cold lock to surpass Avatar at this point.
Every week day this week will behave a bit like a normal Friday, since schools are out. Avatar made $70m from Monday-Thursday in this same week during its run, and TFA is coming off a weekend that was 2x as high as Avatar's. $100m is probably the floor for the weekdays this week, with another $100m likely this weekend. That's another $200m, which brings the total to ~$740m as a conservative estimate in three weeks.
After that you can apply a normal tail with ~35% drops and end up with another $200m. That's how it tracks to $900m. If has slightly better legs once school is back in, then it could hit $1b.
Somehow, I actually understood that reference.
People seem to be expecting it to do better than JW in China. It will probably do enough overseas that, when combined with domestic, it will overtake Titanic as the #2 movie worldwide.
Avatar was buoyed by 3D sales which ensured minimal week-over-week drops in sales, but what does SW have that will ensure an additional 100 million this week, and 200 million by the end of the weekend?
I suppose I just don't see nostalgia pulling in that many fans again for another week.
-It's coming off a $150m weekend
-The weekend drop (excluding Thursday previews) was 22%
-It made $140m last week from Monday-Thursday
-The entire history of how this week plays out points to a small drop
What it has is massive awareness, word of mouth, and momentum in at the box office. Movies don't have that kind of a hold and then crater 60% in week 3, while school is still out. Ever.
I've been on GAF for 15 years and I've never seen someone double down on such a bad prediction in the face of so much data like this before.
I don't think that better than Jurassic World in China is anywhere near a lock at the moment.
Tons of Hollywood films have been overestimated in China since Furious 7 blew away expectations.
It already had an insanely small drop coming off of a historic opening week. It's not going to just completely collapse and disappear from all theaters.
Also, 3D sales don't have anything to do with drops.
Weren't you saying people were expecting a $175 million opening in China?
Seems like even a significant overestimation there would be enough to beat Jurassic World.
-It's coming off a $150m weekend
-The weekend drop (excluding Thursday previews) was 22%
-It made $140m last week from Monday-Thursday
-The entire history of how this week plays out points to a small drop
What it has is massive awareness, word of mouth, and momentum in at the box office. Movies don't have that kind of a hold and then crater 60% in week 3, while school is still out. Ever.
I've been on GAF for 15 years and I've never seen someone double down on such a bad prediction in the face of so much data like this before.
Fair enough.
We shall see how this coming week(end) plays out.
Starsailor
Banned
You let zuko having three seasons but not Kylo having three movie story development?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Anyone who thinks TFA isn't beating Avatar domestically is delusional or has an agenda. The end.
$1 Billion isn't a lock anymore, but I think it's still happening. Assuming a $720M total and a $95M weekend on Jan 3rd, Sherlock Holmes' legs gets it to $900M. That's the floor, IMO.
$1 Billion isn't a lock anymore, but I think it's still happening. Assuming a $720M total and a $95M weekend on Jan 3rd, Sherlock Holmes' legs gets it to $900M. That's the floor, IMO.
CopperPuppy
Member
Is this a meme or are people actually stanning for Cameron to hold on to the all-time box office records?
I mean, I like it when a movie I enjoyed resonates with others and is accordingly successful, but I really don't see how the record holder matters one way or the other.
BronsonLee
Member
The reaction to Hateful Eight + how goddamn long it is is strongly making me consider using my Fandango credit I got from the Creed pre-screening on Star Wars in IMAX 3D
LOOK WHAT YOU DID TARANTINO, YOU FUCKER
I WAS THE CHOSEN ONE
LOOK WHAT YOU DID TARANTINO, YOU FUCKER
I WAS THE CHOSEN ONE
ryutaro's mama
Member
What's the WW take tracking to be at the end?
Pretty close to Titanic I think. Too close to call at the moment.
Star Wars will be in the lower spectrum of this older chart.
Avatar got to 1st place because it was supposed to be a revolutionary film that changed movies forever and made 3D king. Star Wars fans are not spending as much to see the film as Avatar audiences did.
If you throw in IMAX and Large format, premiums were collected on 66% of Star Wars tickets that first weekend. Pretty comparable to Avatar.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Thanks, K-Swiss!
Noooooo! That goes against the narrative that AHBUHDAR only made a ton of money because of the premium pricing. SW7 couldn't have had the benefit AHBUHDAR had.
LIES!!!
What is the percentage of premiums (including 3D, IMAX and Large format) for Avatar? What are the percentage of premiums for Star Wars after the first weekend?
This BOM article said that over 80% of Avatar's domestic gross came from 3D:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2667&p=.htm
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
As far as I'm aware, 3D percentages that are reported (in the case of Star Wars, 48%) include IMAX and other PLF screens that are in 3D, so I don't think that's accurate. Unless you know something I don't, which is certainly possible.
As far as I'm aware, 3D percentages that are reported (in the case of Star Wars, 48%) include IMAX and other PLF screens that are in 3D, so I don't think that's accurate. Unless you know something I don't, which is certainly possible.
According to Hollywood Reporter, you are right and kswiston is double-counting IMAX:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-box-office-star-850340
As far as I'm aware, 3D percentages that are reported (in the case of Star Wars, 48%) include IMAX and other PLF screens that are in 3D, so I don't think that's accurate. Unless you know something I don't, which is certainly possible.
Yeah, I think you are right. I just went back to last week's Variety article for my previous post, and the way the sentence was worded made them seem separate. However numbers I am seeing for IMAX ($30M) plus Real3D ($78M) make more sense if they were part of a cumulative 48% along with the other Large Format screens.
My mistake.
It definitely peaked, but Episodes VIII & IX are still gonna be mega-blockbusters.
Ninja Scooter
Member
It will make a shit ton of money, but not as much as Ep 7.
I have the same question with Avatar 2 though. Like, normally you'd expect it to make far less than 1, but I am done doubting Cameron and his black magic.
He's talking about the soft reboot episode 2.
But it could be a remake, so these numbers might still tell us something.
First entry of the last two trilogies was the highest grossing by a good margin. I don't really see a reason why that won't be repeated again here.
However, we are working with absurdly high numbers here. Even a Jurassic Park -> Lost World type drop would likely mean $575-600M domestic for Episode 8 given where TFA is headed.
However, we are working with absurdly high numbers here. Even a Jurassic Park -> Lost World type drop would likely mean $575-600M domestic for Episode 8 given where TFA is headed.
BronsonLee
Member
I either want a ridiculous drop or a ridiculous spike in numbers for Ep 8
Anything else is just boring, dammit
1 dollar domestic or TWO BILLION
Anything else is just boring, dammit
1 dollar domestic or TWO BILLION
I'm interested in the influence of annual releases over Star Wars power.
For A2? I'm expecting an optimistic half.
So either Jurassic Park 3 to Jurassic World or Basic Instinct to Basic Instinct 2?
BronsonLee
Member
Exactly. I want blood, and I don't care who it's from!
BronsonLee
Member
It'll prove once and for all that Donnie Yen is the hero that China deserves
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Then Disney really does have the power of Scrooge McDuck. swimmingInGold.gif
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