Xbox One at 18 million (activated units)
- Thread starter Sweep14
- Start date
So 18m are the Xbox One which are active, and have been turned on and connected to the internet at least once a month, so i assume that the overall Xbox One sales could even be 20m, since we can't know for sure how many of the Xbox One consoles sold are still active
What 20? 22 million, man!
darkinstinct
...lacks reading comprehension.
I think the fool is the one that doesn't bother reading what he see. The article explains excplicitly that figure 7 shows it would take Microsoft until 2024 to overtake Sony if you're going by yoy growth rates. They even go as far as to write
"It's important to note that console sales patterns decidedly do not work in this way, and it's a bit ridiculous to expect annual sales to continue increasing in this kind of parabolic curve. Still, it's interesting to see that based on current trends, the Xbox One wouldn't start to outsell the PS4 on an annual basis until 2024."
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
Are you really defending such a useless article? We all read that part. That doesn't make it any less fucking stupid, especially given their history.
Luckydog
Member
Do you work for Arstechnica?
Wait, Was this a real graph!?!?!
As said, whatever the context, this graph is stupid.
The only thing that should have been said about the then-data (now irrelevant after this Holiday where the gap actually increased faster according to what we know) was "even if the Xbox One were to continue diminish the increase growth in sales gap, and was to find a Kinect like moment to reverse the gap trend, it would be extremely unlikely to catch up to the PS4 in the expected lifetime of either console".
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Hahahaha!
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
How credible are they?
B/c they're saying "quite a bit higher" which could mean anything from 1-2 million to 4-5, and it's virtually impossible for XBO to be any further than 18.5-19 million sold through with everything we know from more credible sources.
That assumes there is no XBO-2 or PS5, and ignores whatever Nintendo does like the NX. It's a pretty useless prediction no matter how you cut it, b/c these systems will be officially backended well earlier than 2024, on secondary status by their respective companies if not discontinued outright.
I think most people should be able to think for themselves & see that these are not actual Xbox One sales numbers but more of a breakdown of the 200 million active Windows 10 users.
chances are that maybe over 2 or 3 million of the Xbox Ones wasn't even active in the last 28 but they was still used in the 18 million estimation. but people will look at the 18 million estimation then add the 2 or 3 million that they guess hasn't been active in the last 28 days to the 18 million & say 20 million sold.
chances are that maybe over 2 or 3 million of the Xbox Ones wasn't even active in the last 28 but they was still used in the 18 million estimation. but people will look at the 18 million estimation then add the 2 or 3 million that they guess hasn't been active in the last 28 days to the 18 million & say 20 million sold.
Pathfinder
Member
The 18 million number was not an estimation though, as far as I can tell. It was a for sure number of activated units at the time the data point was taken.
Therefore, it's still perfectly acceptable to say between 18-20 million Xbox One's have been sold to consumers. And it appears that's as accurate as we're going to get for now.
If you listen to the interview, she Mary Jo Foley said her source told her around 18 million. Around means estimation to me.
Pathfinder
Member
Still doesn't change the general 18-20 mil estimation. It's bound to be somewhere in between there.
Sucks when companies aren't forthcoming with their numbers, but not much we can do about it.
But it was.
Hockeymac18
Member
So 17.5-19.5?
Honestly, I think the biggest question here is how many XB1's were not active at any point the month prior to when the data point was taken? If you don't know, you have no idea how much above 17.5/18/18.4 million (whatever the true number is). I do agree it's probably above the estimated number because there were some inactive consoles during that period - but I have no idea how to even begin to estimate that number.
Pathfinder
Member
No one does, but that isn't stopping people from coming up with and claiming a ratio anyway.
It was stated previously, but Sony said that 90% of there's are online. That's double the data, which means its safe to assume the same here, which led to the 20mil number.
All in all, since the 18mil was 'around' and we're applying similar data, its still all calculated guesses essentially.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
The its over 11 and 2, so including present jan sales that can add to about 14 million. you dont think rotw sold over 4 million?
Tivor Tontomo
Member
lol what?
4.5 mil. And you?
AmaterasuOni
Banned
I like how many juniors have joined this thread now. It's a trend from where we can build a mighty graph!
Birgitte2004
Member
I still see this as something like a statement "Around 200 million Windows 10 devices are active, of which about 90% are PCs. Of the remaining 10%, around 90% of those are Xbox Ones." being turned into "18 million Xbox ones". IE: Not even a single estimate, but multiples.
The numbers are just way too nice and round, across the board.
Not doubting Foley's source said 18 million, but the above is why I wouldn't claim any more accurate than the 15 to 20 million I suggested earlier.
Feel free to disagree.
therealbigrich
Member
I honestly wish MS would just come out and say a number. Your not #1 and everyone knows it and it would stop ppl from saying estimates like facts
Tivor Tontomo
Member
you dont think rotw sold over 4.5 mill? us and uk are around 14 million, its not 90-1 in those countries favor either. seems easy to see sales over 18.5. i can see 20 as the ceiling.
With the power of the cloud, maybe 10 mil ROTW.
You forgot to mention Japan like in one of your previous posts.
Primethius
Banned
It's better to try and estimate the amount sold through via other data like people have previously done. IIRC, most pegged the XB1 to be in the 17-19 million range prior to this "source".
I personally think it's at 18 million because it lines up with most data we've had so far. But I suppose that number depends in part on the consoles December performance.
14? You mean 13. It's likely going to hit 11 mil in the US by December's numbers. And it's around 2 in the UK.
Microsoft Chad deja vu???
Where do you get 14 from? We haven't gotten confirmation that UK has hit 2 million xbox ones yet,although it probably is. I don't expect the US to be over 11,250 at the end of December. It was 9760k at the end of November.
Hockeymac18
Member
What would MS have to gain from this? Sure we want to know - but they don't care if people on NeoGAF don't know.
The only thing it'll do is show just how far behind they are from the PS4, and that will spur a rush of bad news/articles. I don't see any positives really on MS's side.
Chobel
Member
Not sure how you could infer anything from "double" here. PS4 has very different demographic than XBO.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Neuromancer
Member
Who said that? Congratulate them all you want. Personally I think it would be pretty impressive (if true).
Tivor Tontomo
Member
The issue is thinking rotw outside us and uk isnt over 4.5 million.Surely its more than that? That seems too low.
What are you talking about? I asked where you got your number 14 for the US and UK from.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
You answered that very question in your post, and I did before as well. im assuming up till present including december, as you say it may be wrong but it seems probable.
Now, can you answer the other question for me if you can? As that will determine if over 18 is realistic or not.
My post said it was much closer to 13 then 14. 14 seems unrealistically high which is why I questioned it. And I don't have numbers for the rest of the world.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Well without rotw it couldb be tricky. Though i thought we had france and germany. must be software only then.
When some of the biggest RotW markets look like the below data, then over 4.5 million for Xbox One in RotW seems very unlikely.
Germany: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1039840
Spain: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=912200
Italy: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1045420
France: http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=143858593&postcount=15
slavesnyder
Member
For France and Spain the data is from 2014 so not sure useful this data is. Also Germany is from March.
Read my post again.
Sorry slave, then I'll just get a sea of quotes like sam's. The exact numbers are not what's important
Primethius
Banned
Germany (March, 2015):
Spain (Oct, 2014):
360,000 PS4's sold. PS4 7:1 XB1
Italy (May, 2015):
PS4 has 70% marketshare of current gen consoles (PS4/XB1/Wii U).
France (Dec, 2014):
ethomaz
Banned
That didn't change that 4.5m in 40 low sales countries is unrealistic.
slavesnyder
Member
Thank you.
Okay, numbers are not fresh, but ratio should have stayed in the ballparks.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
From the looks of it from the above posts, we dont even have current numbers for europe. that makes things complicated. hopefully since its the new year we may get some new #s.