Trump says he will 'most likely' not take part in Fox debate

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120v said:
i'm getting McCain "suspending my campaign" vibes from all this. if Trump loses Iowa (and it's looking like he will, narrowly) the narrative is going to be "when Trump blinked" and i could see things going downhill from there.

but nothing yet has stopped the cray train so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Why does it look like he will? The latest Iowa polls have him ahead.
 
120v said:
i'm getting McCain "suspending my campaign" vibes from all this. if Trump loses Iowa (and it's looking like he will, narrowly) the narrative is going to be "when Trump blinked" and i could see things going downhill from there.

but nothing yet has stopped the cray train so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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I think this is a net mistake. I think he still gets the nom, but this is a pretty big gamble on his part.
 
numble said:
Why does it look like he will? The latest Iowa polls have him ahead.
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And this will make him go up even more. By the time next Tuesday hits I wouldn't be shocked to see him so far ahead that it may not even be too terribly close in the voting.
 
This will come off as cowardly. Palin once ran from her governorship and it hurt her image badly. Trump is making the same mistake. Americans don't like quitters.
 
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Made this last year for the first debate and it continues to remain relevant.
 
The debates are bullshit anyways, I respect him for not showing up and letting moderators mess with him differently than others. Whether people agree with Trump's views or not, I think this is a pretty smart move.
 
Wow, there really is no hype for this debate anymore. Debate thread about to fall off first page with no replies.
 
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:
This will come off as cowardly. Palin once ran from her governorship and it hurt her image badly. Trump is making the same mistake. Americans don't like quitters.
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Palin is like the anti Trump. Her not being able to name the newspaper she reads was a gaf they talked-about about for weeks. Trump's poll numbers go up there mire crazy he is.
 
numble said:
Why does it look like he will? The latest Iowa polls have him ahead.
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poll aggregators have had cruz ahead for awhile now. i don't know how recent polls will factor in though. FiveThiryEight has Cruz with a 49% chance to win, for what it's worth (Trump at 42%)
 
120v said:
poll aggregators have had cruz ahead for awhile now. i don't know how recent polls will factor in though. FiveThiryEight has Cruz with a 49% chance to win, for what it's worth (Trump at 42%)
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Now look at FiveThirtyEight's polls-only forecast, which puts Trump ahead by a lot. That polls-plus forecast includes endorsements by federal congressmen and governors. Even then its flawed because it doesn't take into account anti-endorsements like the Iowa governor and Senators opposing Cruz, or Sarah Palin endorsing Trump. Many would argue that endorsements by federal congressmen and governors don't really matter anyway (Jeb leads that race).
 
Rubenov said:
I think this is a net mistake. I think he still gets the nom, but this is a pretty big gamble on his part.
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I think it would have been a major blunder, but Fox got cute and released a moronic press release. They basically gave him a good reason to go on the attack. Plus you have Megyn inviting on Michael Moore of all people on her show tonight which probably isn't endearing her to conservatives. For the last several weeks, the Megyn show has been basically attack Trump. She had the big National Review show and has brought on Glenn Beck several times to go after Trump. She does bring on a Trump representative for a couple minutes at times, but she clearly seems to have an agenda.

Trump doesn't like Megyn but he would have done the debate. The Fox press release ignited the firestorm.

In a way I'm not sure I blame him. It does appear Fox would try to use this last chance to take him out. Especially since they are determined to have Megyn moderate.

I doubt Hillary Clinton would want someone like Rush Limbaugh, or Sean Hannity moderating a debate since they clearly can't stand her.
 
I think Trump realizes now that people are only going to watch a debate because he's there. He doesn't like Fox atm so why should he give them ratings and hence cash in the bank?

If he creates some kind of rival news program like Trump News to compete with Fox News, taht would be oh so hilarious.
 
OuterLimits said:
I think it would have been a major blunder, but Fox got cute and released a moronic press release. They basically gave him a good reason to go on the attack. Plus you have Megyn inviting on Michael Moore of all people on her show tonight which probably isn't endearing her to conservatives. For the last several weeks, the Megyn show has been basically attack Trump. She had the big National Review show and has brought on Glenn Beck several times to go after Trump. She does bring on a Trump representative for a couple minutes at times, but she clearly seems to have an agenda.

Trump doesn't like Megyn but he would have done the debate. The Fox press release ignited the firestorm.

In a way I'm not sure I blame him. It does appear Fox would try to use this last chance to take him out. Especially since they are determined to have Megyn moderate.

I doubt Hillary Clinton would want someone like Rush Limbaugh, or Sean Hannity moderating a debate since they clearly can't stand her.
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It's right before the primary, though! This seems like an insane move for a frontrunner.
 
I don't think you can rationally not be biased against Trump. He treated Kelly poorly so why not just flip the bird at him?
 
hydragonwarrior said:
I think Trump realizes now that people are only going to watch a debate because he's there. He doesn't like Fox atm so why should he give them ratings and hence cash in the bank?

If he creates some kind of rival news program like Trump News to compete with Fox News, taht would be oh so hilarious.
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The Trump Stump
 
Opto said:
I don't think you can rationally not be biased against Trump. He treated Kelly poorly so why not just flip the bird at him?
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I watched that first debate... first question was a bazooka at Trump, and it just got worse form there. Trump is an ass, but they were absolutely looking to take him out.
 
Makai said:
It's right before the primary, though! This seems like an insane move for a frontrunner.
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Boycotting the debate to host an event in Iowa for veterans does seem risky, but it's strategic too.. not insane... just a gamble really. It's Iowa... Could pay off, honestly.
 
Rubenov said:
I watched that first debate... first question was a bazooka at Trump, and it just got worse form there. Trump is an ass, but they were absolutely looking to take him out.
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Those muscles had atrophied. Usually when Fox wants to tear someone down they have the advantage of them being left of centre and their audience usually believes them implicitly. They don't even really have to try.

But Trump was different and they forgot that.
 
20 million plus will watch the debate no matter if trump comes or not. It is a fact even if it was the highest rated program, Trump would say if he was there, it would've been alot bigger.
 
Dante316 said:
It is a fact even if it was the highest rated program, Trump would say if he was there, it would've been alot bigger.
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And he would've been correct. These primaries have been exciting because of him. Otherwise they would've been a conservative circle jerk.
 
I think he's 'negotiating' with this move. He's trying to get Kelly out, and in exchange will give her an exclusive post-nom interview, or something like that.
 
sprsk said:
This is the tactic though. He's holding all the chips so either they comply or the ratings suffer. Its sinister shit, but it works. You want access to the Donald you play by his rules. Its what dictators do.
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Certainly, I know why it appeals to him. I'm not sure why his supporters are okay with it, however, since this tactic would completely fall apart on a global stage.
 
The RNC stripped NBC of a debate because they were unhappy with how CNBC ran theirs but they are perfectly happy with a conservative news network that books guests daily that do nothing but say how awful Trump is and have the first question of the first debate be about Trump's tweets and the War on Women, something that conservatives don't believe exists in the first place.

While i think this does look bad for Trump initially, it all depends on how big of a counter-event he has and if the ratings of a Trump-less debate do drop.
 
SaviourMK2 said:
Haha, you a member of Chump Change?
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He's a bonafide Trump supporter as I recall. There are dozens of them on GAF.

People are really giving his supporters too much credit. They won't see this as him being a coward or being a crybaby, they will see it as him being a hero, challenging the establishment as he has always done. His numbers will likely go up.
 
I can't believe I am saying this, but that was an amazing response by Fox.

Like, I actually clapped at how amazing it was. Too bad they aren't that smart when it comes to everything else.
 
sillymonkey321 said:
The RNC stripped NBC of a debate because they were unhappy with how CNBC ran theirs but they are perfectly happy with a conservative news network that books guests daily that do nothing but say how awful Trump is and have the first question of the first debate be about Trump's tweets and the War on Women, something that conservatives don't believe exists in the first place.

While i think this does look bad for Trump initially, it all depends on how big of a counter-event he has and if the ratings of a Trump-less debate do drop.
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Wasn't that the second question? I thought the first was their raise your hand if you're not trump stunt
 
Trump's not going to be affected by this. His entire campaign is masterfully constructed in that he can do basically anything and justify it on some kind of loosely internally consistent basis. If he doesn't show up, it's because he knows Fox News and Megyn Kelly are just going to smear him, and he's not going to bump their ratings only for them to treat him like shit, and don't we want a president who'll refuse to deal with opportunistic assholes like Iran? If he gets Fox to take Kelly off the debate and agrees to show up, then he proved what a great negotiator he is, and oh, don't we want someone that crafty dealing with Russia?

Say what you will of Trump, but the reason he's done so well is that he's perfectly in-tune with what his potential voters think of him and manipulates it absolutely perfectly. I don't see any reason to think he has erred in this case.
 
1) Groom a base to not trust the media when it levies attacks on the Republicans.

2) blatantly be an establishment proxy and levy attacks against the candidate of choice for the base that you've groomed to mistrust "the media!"

3) ????
 
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