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[GoldenEye 007]

Don't you think Obama likely had an easier time swaying black voters? I don't think black voters are sealed to Clinton or anything, but expecting an Obama-level turnaround is unlikely in my eyes.

And I am wondering how he can communicate his history, because its not like that's new data he happened to miss in his campaign. That message just hasn't been swaying voters, and I'm not convinced its just a communication issue.

Yeah, I'm not saying that if he becomes viable that you will see a swing that CNN just broadcasted. Something like 24% support to nearly 80% support overnight in 2008. Not saying that at all. But just wondering if he can make a swing large enough to no longer make it a shoe-in for Clinton.

As for the communication thing, I thought people have been saying part of the issue is that people don't know Sanders at all by and large. He's still somewhat unknown. Everyone knows Clinton and is familiar with her. It's largely why it was assumed for the longest she would sleepwalk through 2008. But yes, I have no clue how he will convey anything relating to black political issues to the masses to capture that demographic. I'm just along for the ride at this point to see how it unfolds.

I'm going to support the Democratic nominee no matter what. Just haven't decided who that will be just yet.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Get your shit together Cruz, I'm cheering for you to win on the Republican side.

....what?

 

[Sickboy007]

A third place in NH is pretty good for him actually.

Good to hear.

 

[danm999]

Mathematically is there even a path for Sanders?

Cruz and Bush now tied for third...

Yes those superdelegates can shift if he performs better than Hillary during the nomination.

 

[Prodigal Son]

Which makes people who were on the fence (like me) lean away from him when it comes time to vote.

Here's a stealth attack: It's highly questionable that you won't show your support for a candidate because his supporters are sizeable, young and passionate. No shit there will be bad eggs and people whose passion yields anger. You find the same of all large groups of people. Saw the same shit with 'obama boys' in 08.

 

[eyeball_kid]

Mathematically is there even a path for Sanders?

The superdelegates comprise about 15% of the Democratic delegates. So sure, Sanders still has a good shot. The remaining superdelegates can pledge to anyone. Of course Clinton has deep ties in the party and Sanders doesn't, but if Sanders starts breaking away in the popular vote I'm sure we'll see some superdelegates announce support.

I personally think the superdelegate system is corrupt and undemocratic though, but it's what we're stuck with in both parties for now.

 

[Princess Carl]

Get your shit together Cruz, I'm cheering for you to win on the Republican side.

Why not just his dad and then we can skip the dog whistling before the gay extermination.

 

[Izuna]

Think this is before New Hampshire.

What a stupid system.

 

[maabus1999]

The super delegates will move if he can start peeling off states, if she wins SC, NV and wins most of super Tuesday Bernie's ride is over

Lol...no they won't unless Hillary concedes. And due to the demographics of SC, NV, and Super Tuesday, Hillary has very, very pro-demographics as it is heavy on moderate democrats and minorities.

The superdelegates comprise about 15% of the Democratic delegates. So sure, Sanders still has a good shot. The remaining superdelegates can pledge to anyone. Of course Clinton has deep ties in the party and Sanders doesn't, but if Sanders starts breaking away in the popular vote I'm sure we'll see some superdelegates announce support.

I personally think the superdelegate system is corrupt and undemocratic though, but it's what we're stuck with in both parties for now.

Sanders would have to break way higher than Obama to get a switch. Most super delegates are deeply established in the party and are actually FEARFUL of Bernie being the candidate due to the GOP attack ads that would just never stop over his views that would hurt other Dems running for Congress. Just like the GOP is FEARFUL of Trump and Cruz. It is the exact same situation for both parties, and also why Bloomberg has stated he will run for President if Sanders and either Trump/Cruz are the two nominees because in his mind they do not represent America.

 

[Amir0x]

Think this is before New Hampshire.

I'm just viewing it like this: I prefer Bernie's policies despite pragmatically supporting Hillary as the more likely to win GE candidate, and his supporters are good Democrats and Americans. But I simultaneously hope that this entire primary season functions as a very tough lesson for these same idealists, because idealism really doesn't get you much. Even on the occasion a perfect storm brews and that idealism sweeps someone into office (not gonna happen here), you have to figure out how to pass legislation. You have to compromise your values somewhere to get something passed, first. Second, before that even happens, you have to fix the gerrymandered system, something that can't even begin to happen until after 2020 earliest. Then we're back to the illusion of these political figures and if any of them could actually even be the transformational figures these campaigns keep claiming.

American politics for many many many many generations has been the story of slow, incremental change adding up to big things, and seizing on opportunities when they arise to best advance your agenda. Now was the wrong time for Bernie for numerous reasons. But it's a good time for people to understand that merely hoping for something isn't likely to make it occur. You also need to understand how to work the system in your favor.

 

[neurosisxeno]

The superdelegates comprise about 15% of the Democratic delegates. So sure, Sanders still has a good shot. The remaining superdelegates can pledge to anyone. Of course Clinton has deep ties in the party and Sanders doesn't, but if Sanders starts breaking away in the popular vote I'm sure we'll see some superdelegates announce support.

This is exactly what happened with Obama. He ended up stealing a good portion of Hillary's Superdelegates once he started trading blows with her in 2008, then I think got all of Edwards support and won some big states leading to a slight edge before factoring in the superdelegates, and a slight win when considering them.

American politics for many many many many generations has been the story of slow, incremental change adding up to big things, and seizing on opportunities when they arise to best advance your agenda. Now was the wrong time for Bernie for numerous reasons. But it's a good time for people to understand that merely hoping for something isn't likely to make it occur. You also need to understand how to work the system in your favor.

And as of recent we are slowly dropping down the list in various quality of life categories. Obviously this isn't a tortoise-friendly race.

 

[ProfessorMoran]

Super delegates aren't tied to a candidate, they can move. Bernie needs to give them a reason to move

Bernie probably won't get African American support to do this, unless there's an indictment for the email scandal.

 

[injurai]

Kasich has done an excellent job of making people believe this. :lol

Kasich is anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, anti-union... his type of Republicanism is not that much different from Rubio, and probably a little less extreme than Jeb.

trust me, I know the type of person he is

 

[Izuna]

Marco Rubio on being President of the United States: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pv61yEcOqpw

 

[royalan]

As for the communication thing, I thought people have been saying part of the issue is that people don't know Sanders at all by and large. He's still somewhat unknown. Everyone knows Clinton and is familiar with her. It's largely why it was assumed for the longest she would sleepwalk through 2008. But yes, I have no clue how he will convey anything relating to black political issues to the masses to capture that demographic. I'm just along for the ride at this point to see how it unfolds.

Now, if Bernie is smart he'll avoid this argument like the plague as he moves into states with larger black populations, because there are a lot of black people who ARE following this primary season and are aware of Bernie Sanders, and are getting increasingly pissed off by this patronizing line of thinking. And these are the black folk that are informing the ones who may not be paying attention.

Also, might get some flack for this, but the single biggest thing Bernie could do to turn a few black heads, is more directly come out against his more rabid supporters. Bernie Twitter is really killing it for campaign right now with black voters.

 

[Amir0x]

And as of recent we are slowly dropping down the list in various quality of life categories. Obviously this isn't a tortoise-friendly race.

It has to be, because American politics isn't going to work another way no matter how many Bernie supporters get together and sing about it. That's not how the system works. It simply is not set up that way, and 99% of the time it does not work that way. So if you want to ever do much beyond have a "conversation" and ever have good odds of getting a candidate you like and who can also get his initiatives passed, you need to come up with a pragmatic solution to fixing the system that is something beyond a fairy tale. Since no one has come up with a way to do this prior to the 2020 Census at earliest failing a meteor coming down and selectively destroying all Republican mid-term voters, we either work like tortoises or we don't work at all and never even leave the starting line.

 

[Concept17]

Democrats
Voting percentage reported 80%

Bernie Sanders 60%
Hillary Clinton 38%

Republicans
Voting percentage reported 78%

Donald Trump 34%
John Kasich 16%
Ted Cruz 12%
Jeb (John E. Bush) 11%
Marco Rubio 10%
Chris Christie 8%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Ben Carson 2%

The race for third place continues with Cruz in the lead. Bernie is now 22% over Hillary.

Wait... all this time his name has been John? I legit thought his first name was Jeb.

We've been saying his initials all this time? How did I not know this?

holy shit

 

[Kid Kamikaze10]

Now, if Bernie is smart he'll avoid this argument like the plague as he moves into states with larger black populations, because there are a lot of black people who ARE following this primary season and are aware of Bernie Sanders, and are getting increasingly pissed off by this patronizing line of thinking. And these are the black folk that are informing the ones who may not be paying attention.

Also, might get some flack for this, but the single biggest thing Bernie could do to turn a few black heads, is more directly come out against his more rabid supporters. Bernie Twitter is really killing it for campaign right now with black voters.

Yeah, the previous attempt to do that was seriously half assed.

He really needs the black vote. And if he doesn't know that now, South Carolina, which has WAY more non-whites than NH, will teach him.

 

[Indicate]

Wait... all this time his name has been John? I legit thought his first name was Jeb.

We've been saying his initials all this time? How did I not know this?

holy shit

lol

 

[Arkeband]

Now, if Bernie is smart he'll avoid this argument like the plague as he moves into states with larger black populations, because there are a lot of black people who ARE following this primary season and are aware of Bernie Sanders, and are getting increasingly pissed off by this patronizing line of thinking. And these are the black folk that are informing the ones who may not be paying attention.

Also, might get some flack for this, but the single biggest thing Bernie could do to turn a few black heads, is more directly come out against his more rabid supporters. Bernie Twitter is really killing it for campaign right now with black voters.

This whole "I vote based on who their followers are" thing is so ridiculous. Forget Bernie bros, you might as well vote based on who the First Lady is, it's so irrelevant.

Get off Twitter. Problem solved.

 

[prag16]

Even though I cringe whenever I read someone in the Clinton camp saying Bernie is running the most negative Democratic campaign ever, it is it kind of ridiculous how easily he gets away with stealth attacks. And shit like the voter file data breach especially exposes that double standard -- if someone on Clinton's team were caught doing that, she'd be savaged in the press over it.

Clinton supporters can't complain about perceived teflon for Bernie, in light of the Hilldawg email scandal, and how it's almost at this point been entirely handwaved by both supporters and even the media. Double standard my ass.

(I have no horse in this race. I'm a Rand Paul guy who now has nobody and I mean nobody to turn to.)

He ain't wrong. Bernie's beet hitting her with stealth attacks for a while now and no one's called him out on it yet. He's been getting away with shit that would have sunk her 12 times over.

Right, but rampant and repeated ethics violations don't matter apparently. The cognitive dissonance is strong among team Hilldawg.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Bernie needs to figure out how to talk about issues that black and Latino folks face in a way other than simply framing them in economic terms. Hillary is no dummy; she's going to beat him to the punch going into these states with higher populations of black folks.

 

[injurai]

Wait... all this time his name has been John? I legit thought his first name was Jeb.

We've been saying his initials all this time? How did I not know this?

holy shit

news to me too

Marco Rubio on being President of the United States: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pv61yEcOqpw

lmao

 

[ratcliffja]

Clinton's speech tonight sounded more like a Sanders speech anything she's said in the past, talking about Wall St. regulation and Citizens United. It's obviously she's trying to capture youth vote by pivoting towards his positions, but I think it's going to just make her look inconsistent. I mean, Bernie's positions are pretty well-known already, it's not like she can sneak in the back door at this point and co-opt it.


edit: also, Jim Gilmore with 118 votes. Might be time for ole Jim to rethink his campaign.

I think that's probably more her assuming that she'll win anyway and letting younger voters know that she hears their issues and will fight for them if she wins the presidency. She just doesn't want to lose anybody who's currently rooting for Sanders. With that said, I don't think young voters are going to matter much in the general election anyway, so she'd be better off doubling down on older voters and appealing to those who remember the Bill Clinton years. Bernie supporters aren't suddenly going to vote for Trump any more than her supporters voted for McCain 8 years ago. Appeal to your strengths and work on your weaknesses after you've sealed the nomination. She can't afford to lose a lot of older or minority voters at this point. I think she is still the heavy favorite to win the nomination, but she has to know that this is far from over.

 

[maabus1999]

Now, if Bernie is smart he'll avoid this argument like the plague as he moves into states with larger black populations, because there are a lot of black people who ARE following this primary season and are aware of Bernie Sanders, and are getting increasingly pissed off by this patronizing line of thinking. And these are the black folk that are informing the ones who may not be paying attention.

Also, might get some flack for this, but the single biggest thing Bernie could do to turn a few black heads, is more directly come out against his more rabid supporters. Bernie Twitter is really killing it for campaign right now with black voters.

Jeff Weaver, Bernie's Campaign Manager, repeated this same line tonight so no change so far. Their strategy is to try and get endorsements from Black leaders (Bernie is meeting with Al Sharpton for example) who will help tell his story.

I think that strategy is about to be a failure but that's just me.

 

[RobotHaus]

Wait... all this time his name has been John? I legit thought his first name was Jeb.

We've been saying his initials all this time? How did I not know this?

holy shit

Yeah, I always thought it was short for Jebidiah or something, but he's the GOB of the Bush family.

 

[Nickle]

This whole "I vote based on who their followers are" thing is so ridiculous. Forget Bernie bros, you might as well vote based on who the First Lady is, it's so irrelevant.

Get off Twitter. Problem solved.

Potential Bernie voters aren't going to get off Twitter. You have to base your campaign marketing off of what does happen, not what should happen.

 

[Sickboy007]

....what?

Why not just his dad and then we can skip the dog whistling before the gay extermination.

Even if the polls don't support it now, I believe Cruz would be a safer win for Democrats. He's basically the caricature of a conservative Republican, it would be the sort of conventional campaign Dems know how to win.

Trump is too unpredictable, he could pull out a "I don't give a shit about gay marriage/abortion" in the general and actually gain supporters.

And even if he doesn't win the election, his nomination could lead the Republicans to some very, very dark places before they fade away. And as a European, I'm also scared about the potential resonance of his electoral strategy on the continent.

 

[B-Dubs]

Clinton supporters can't complain about perceived teflon for Bernie, in light of the Hilldawg email scandal, and how it's almost at this point been entirely handwaved by both supporters and even the media. Double standard my ass.

(I have no horse in this race. I'm a Rand Paul guy who now has nobody and I mean nobody to turn to.)



Right, but rampant and repeated ethics violations don't matter apparently. The cognitive dissonance is strong among team Hilldawg.

The e-mail thing? Really? You mean that thing where every few weeks we find out she did nothing wrong but that they're gonna keep looking into it just in case?

 

[royalan]

This whole "I vote based on who their followers are" thing is so ridiculous. Forget Bernie bros, you might as well vote based on who the First Lady is, it's so irrelevant.

Get off Twitter. Problem solved.

You don't have to like it. You can think it's ridiculous all you want. But that doesn't change the fact that it's becoming a problem.

 

[noshten]

So is Clinton going to have a Nevada problem?

 

[Merc_]

This whole "I vote based on who their followers are" thing is so ridiculous. Forget Bernie bros, you might as well vote based on who the First Lady is, it's so irrelevant.

Get off Twitter. Problem solved.

Yeah, keep dismissing what black folks are saying. This is really going to help Bernie.

 

[Chaotic-Strike]

Good jobs for Sanders, but it seems my state is the real trial.

I'll be sure to do my part on the 27th.

 

[Izuna]

Okay I've tried to do some research. Can someone breakdown why Bernie is supposed to do shitty with black voters?

 

[Tingle]

Okay I've tried to do some research. Can someone breakdown why Bernie is supposed to do shitty with black voters?

Polls have strongly indicated it. That and the Clinton's are known for being very well-liked by minority populations. I imagine you've heard the whole, "Bill Clinton was the first black president" thing? That's basically what it means.

 

[And_Gignac]

You don't have to like it. You can think it's ridiculous all you want. But that doesn't change the fact that it's becoming a problem.

Nah. Only millenials could be affected by this, and their support Sanders by lots. The Bernie Bros are nothing compared to the blood and drama of Obama and Clinton in 08.

Source? For like... the entire post?

Himself, probably.

 

[maabus1999]

Bernie needs to figure out how to talk about issues that black and Latino folks face in a way other than simply framing them in economic terms. Hillary is no dummy; she's going to beat him to the punch going into these states with higher populations of black folks.

Bernie needs to figure out a real team beyond economic issues. After there was that NBC interview ( I think NBC) where he basically said he has no one advising him about Foreign Policy, which he is VERY weak on. It really goes to show he is not thinking about growing into the shoes required to be President outside of his economic vision (which is inspirational), which he must do if by chance he wins the nomination or the GOP will SLAUGHTER him.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Now, if Bernie is smart he'll avoid this argument like the plague as he moves into states with larger black populations, because there are a lot of black people who ARE following this primary season and are aware of Bernie Sanders, and are getting increasingly pissed off by this patronizing line of thinking. And these are the black folk that are informing the ones who may not be paying attention.

Also, might get some flack for this, but the single biggest thing Bernie could do to turn a few black heads, is more directly come out against his more rabid supporters. Bernie Twitter is really killing it for campaign right now with black voters.

Hah, yeah I would never expect him or his senior campaign staffers to go with that line of thinking. "You guys don't know me enough, I marched with MLK!" Or whatever, Oh lord jesus no. Buuuut maybe addressing the realities that the US is racist as fuck and focusing on not only talking about the fact institutional racism needs to go away like de jur racism did in the 1960s-1980s, but also how he will work to help make it go away with specific initiatives.

Full disclosure I'm black and probably leaning towards Clinton as I think she probably is the shoe-in as of now. But I do plan on doing more digging as we get closer to the Texas primary so I can better vote in that.

 

[Kid Kamikaze10]

This whole "I vote based on who their followers are" thing is so ridiculous. Forget Bernie bros, you might as well vote based on who the First Lady is, it's so irrelevant.

Get off Twitter. Problem solved.

Stuff like this, as well as the "lets act like black people are the least informed voters" rhetoric is going to end Sanders by the time primaries reach diverse states.

The campaign must change it's narrative and marketing to suit the needs of the audience they need.

And the only way Sanders beats Hillary and wins the general is if he takes the POC vote from her.


Patronizing said voters is a bad idea. And it's an idea I've seen a few Hillary voters do, but far too many Sanders supporters do. Too many for the uphill climb ahead.

 

[RastaMentality]

Okay I've tried to do some research. Can someone breakdown why Bernie is supposed to do shitty with black voters?

Because his entire campaign has been focused in Iowa and the Clinton name runs deep in black communities. Hillary was beating Obama for most of 07 among black voters too.

 

[googleplex]

Bernie probably won't get African American support to do this, unless there's an indictment for the email scandal.

There won't be any Indictments based on a thumped-up and highly transparent, political Smear job no matter how much the GOP or Bernie supporters want it.

 

[royalan]

Nah. Only millenials could be affected by this, and their support Sanders by lots. The Bernie Bros are nothing compared to the blood and drama of Obama and Clinton in 08.



Himself, probably.

Black Millenials aren't the only ones who use social media.

 

[Tingle]

Hah, yeah I would never expect him or his senior campaign staffers to go with that line of thinking. "You guys don't know me enough, I marched with MLK!" Or whatever, Oh lord jesus no. Buuuut maybe addressing the realities that the US is racist as fuck and focusing on not only talking about the fact institutional racism needs to go away like de jur racism did in the 1960s-1980s, but also how he will work to help make it go away with specific initiatives.

Full disclosure I'm black and probably leaning towards Clinton as I think she probably is the shoe-in as of now. But I do plan on doing more digging as we get closer to the Texas primary so I can better vote in that.

I'm just curious, has Clinton suggested any initiatives? Because I don't think either have. If Bernie were to theoretically try this approach, couldn't Clinton probably just counter it by suggesting similar but different approaches anyway?

 

[maabus1999]

So is Clinton going to have a Nevada problem?

Being independents can't vote (closed Caucus), has a sizeable minority population, and that largest union is pissed at Sander's for his campaign impersonating union members....I think Bernie has a huge, huge hill to climb, which his campaign manager sorta hinted at on CNN tonight.

 

[Amir0x]

A lesson. Hahaha. No. This is so condescending.

This is just a sign of things to come. Unfortunately, we're going to be stuck with 8 more years of shit because Bernie seems to be just a tad bit too early. Once more of the younger generation comes in to voting age, it's going to slant far more to the left. Unfortunately, Bernie will be long gone as potential presidential candidate by then. It's not idealism, it just seems that way because America is so damn far behind. A presidential candidate like Bernie winning in America is no longer idealistic. It is a realistic and attainable goal within the next decade.

What is the goal, first? To simply elect a so-called Democratic socialist candidate only to never pass a single bit of legislation, thus disillusioning millions of new young voters who realize the system doesn't work the way they want?

No, the goal hopefully is something more concrete than having a conversation. It's to pass something meaningful to improve the lives of Americans. It's to actually make the country meaningfully more progressive, not elect an empty symbol which sours everyone on the idea for decades more with their ineffectiveness.

So, you need to fix the system. You need Democrats to participate in the 2020 US Census. You need then Democrats to win and either re-gerrymander districts in their favor or eliminate the gerrymandering system altogether. Then, you need to pass legislation with a Democratic House and Senate. And a filibuster proof majority would be ideal - blue dog Democrats sabotage bills even when Dems have huge majorities.

We will eventually have a socialist president (a real socialist, mind you), but now is not the right time, and honestly it's unlikely one would have a real shot even in the next decade. Maybe twenty years.

 

[Crocodile]

This whole "I vote based on who their followers are" thing is so ridiculous. Forget Bernie bros, you might as well vote based on who the First Lady is, it's so irrelevant.

Get off Twitter. Problem solved.

Quoting myself from a week ago

Person 1: "Why aren't Black people feeling the BERN?"
Black Person: Well.....*gives several reasonable reasons*
Person 2: Bullshit!

repeat ad infinitium

 

[Merc_]

Nah. Only millenials could be affected by this, and their support Sanders by lots. The Bernie Bros are nothing compared to the blood and drama of Obama and Clinton in 08.

Do you think that young black voters don't talk to each other and older folks or something?

 

[Nibiru]

Okay I've tried to do some research. Can someone breakdown why Bernie is supposed to do shitty with black voters?

It really just stems from the Clinton's being very popular with African Americans for the last 30 years. Tough to break through.

 

[royalan]

There won't be any Indictments based on a thumped-up and highly transparent, political Smear job no matter how much the GOP or Bernie supporters want it.

And honestly, even if there were indictments I don't think it would matter to black voters who support Hillary. Thanks to our unique history in this country, we can smell bullshit charges from a mile away.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Yeah, keep dismissing what black folks are saying. This is really going to help Bernie.

Honest question: how do you qualify that Bernie is dismissing black folks? How do you qualify that his supporters are? Like, do you count how many on twitter respond positively or negatively to black bloggers? Do you count responses to black celebrities or black politicians in that number?

It feels like too many people in these political threads are treating "black folks" like some monolith or some token group that can be swayed by shiny pieces of rhetoric. It's incredibly condescending.