The New Hampshire Primary |Feb 9|: Live Free or Die

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Macho Madness said:
I know, extreme was probably too much. More a candidate they feel isn't going to be best for the party.
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Yeah, he's definitely a potential liability. Hillary's been beaten on for years and she's still popular, she's practically immune to Republican attacks by now. Sanders is definitely the high risk candidate.
 
Duxxy3 said:
There's no better way to get people to stop voting than to take away their voting power. It SHOULD be a virtual tie right now between Sanders and Clinton.
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It is. Super delegates are not going to go against the popular vote and give clinton the nomination if Bernie wins. Super delegates (all delegates really) don't actually vote until the convention.

Claiming she already has 400 or whatever delegates is pure damage control.
 
Macho Madness said:
If he gets the nomination and loses badly, that could be devastating to the democratic party. General election optics are much different than the primary ones.
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Yet Bernie does better with independents...

The same thing applies if Hillary loses...

Do you think the people voting for Bernie will just disappear? This demographic is ripe for the taking in 4 years.
 
Downhome said:
Yeah, he is done. Here is the report from Politico...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...ected-to-suspend-presidential-campaign-219074

Are there any examples of folks suspending their campaign, then making a comeback later on down the road in the same election season?
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Is that legal? Within the same election cycle?

edit: Unrelated. Do the GOP also have as many "super delegates". I can't imagine them voting for Trump.

edit edit: looks like just 3 per state.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
Hillary will be the nominee, that's simply the reality of the situation.

In terms of the conversation on whether she "deserves" the black vote that's up to black people to decide. There's no question that Clinton policies hurt many black people in the 90s. On the other hand black income increased due to the economic boom of the 90s, and black (and all) poverty decreased quite a bit.

To me the bigger tell on Clinton and black people: they'll sell you down the river if it's politically expedient. This doesn't just apply to black people, it applies to every issue. Obama took a stand on gay marriage before re-election. Hillary waited until after Obama won to take that position. If crime was rising today as it did in the 90s she and many other politicians would not be so sympathetic to criminal justice reforms. That 90s crime problem is what resulted in President Clinton and other democrats passing draconian crime laws. It was politicially expedient.

Yes crime needed to be addressed, yes harsh punishments for violent crimes are fine, however the drug punishments were devastating and unfair. And if I was black I'd look at the recent concern over white people dying of heroin and be disgusted. The empathy shown to small city whites dealing with drugs was nowhere to be seen when black people had the same struggle in the 80s and 90s.

So there's nothing wrong with supporting Sanders, who opposed those draconian laws and has supported criminal justice reform for decades. My only point is simple: Hillary will be the nominee. And you better vote in November because the alternative is far worse. You see what's happening to the Supreme Court, you see what's happening in the south with the rejection of Medicaid expansions and voter rights. A republican administration would be far worse for black people (and working class people in general) than a Clinton administration that ultimately will simply be protecting Obama era advances.
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People don't like to be blackmailed into voting. Nobody "has" to vote in November if she's the nominee. We are grown adults and if we don't like Hillary because she's corrupt and untrustworthy that's her fault, not ours.

The fact that we don't want to make that choice later on is why we're so emphatic about Bernie and doing what we can to support him, no thanks to the detractors who would rather force young/working class people to vote for a candidate who's worse for them.
 
boiled goose said:
Yet Bernie does better with independents...

The same thing applies if Hillary loses...

Do you think the people voting for Bernie will just disappear? This demographic is ripe for the taking in 4 years.
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I want to see these 18-29 year olds (I'm 29 myself) show that they'll stay politically active in midterm elections. They weren't there in the 2014 elections, they aren't showing up for state government elections. That's my problem with the Bernie political "revolution." It doesn't begin and end with the presidency.

If this shit truly matters to you, vote. BUT ALWAYS VOTE.
 
Macho Madness said:
I want to see these 18-29 year olds (I'm 29 myself) show that they'll stay politically active in midterm elections. They weren't there in the 2014 elections, they aren't showing up for state government elections. That's my problem with the Bernie political "revolution." It doesn't begin and end with the presidency.

If this shit truly matters to you, vote. BUT ALWAYS VOTE.
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That's a systematic problem that has always existed with Democrats, Bernie or no Bernie.
 
Hollywood Duo said:
I still don't see how Bernie is not electable. The Republican candidates will alienate almost any reasonable person
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They're not interested in those arguments unfortunately. We're at stage 6 of people who defend status quo.

STAGE 6: Issuance of grave and hysterical warnings about the pending apocalypse if the establishment candidate is rejected, as the possibility of losing becomes imminent (you are destined for decades, perhaps even generations, of powerlessness if you disobey our decrees about who to select).
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https://theintercept.com/2016/01/21...establishment-backlash-corbynsanders-edition/
 
Hollywood Duo said:
I still don't see how Bernie is not electable. The Republican candidates will alienate almost any reasonable person
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This is true, and bodes well for any democrat nominee, but Hillary is already a known quantity. The republicans have been digging up her garbage for years, and it's just that, garbage.

Sanders has the potential to be a volatile target when the republican propaganda machine sets it's sights. We don't know how effective it could be, it's a risk. It might do nothing, and the centrist vote could be more intelligent than we give them credit for, but I have my doubts :/
 
Macho Madness said:
I want to see these 18-29 year olds (I'm 29 myself) show that they'll stay politically active in midterm elections. They weren't there in the 2014 elections, they aren't showing up for state government elections. That's my problem with the Bernie political "revolution." It doesn't begin and end with the presidency.

If this shit truly matters to you, vote. BUT ALWAYS VOTE.
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Oh I'm sure all those 18 year olds will show up in the midterms.

Totally sure.
 
Angry Fork said:
Worth reading this if you're interested, and anyone who thinks the Clinton's represent the interests of black americans.

http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/
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just finished reading this. very informative. I found the conclusion pretty spot on as to where we are as a country and our current political climate. there's a reason the anti-establishment candidate on both sides is doing better than they ever would have prior to this election. it's a combination of growing resentment towards the status-quo of both parties and the maturation of the internet as a means of information.

I hold little hope that a political revolution will occur within the Democratic Party without a sustained outside movement forcing truly transformational change. I am inclined to believe that it would be easier to build a new party than to save the Democratic Party from itself.

Of course, the idea of building a new political party terrifies most progressives, who understandably fear that it would open the door for a right-wing extremist to get elected. So we play the game of lesser evils. This game has gone on for decades. W.E.B. Du Bois, the eminent scholar and co-founder of the NAACP, shocked many when he refused to play along with this game in the 1956 election, defending his refusal to vote on the grounds that “there is but one evil party with two names, and it will be elected despite all I do or say.” While the true losers and winners of this game are highly predictable, the game of lesser evils makes for great entertainment and can now be viewed 24 hours a day on cable-news networks. Hillary believes that she can win this game in 2016 because this time she’s got us, the black vote, in her back pocket—her lucky card.

She may be surprised to discover that the younger generation no longer wants to play her game. Or maybe not. Maybe we’ll all continue to play along and pretend that we don’t know how it will turn out in the end. Hopefully, one day, we’ll muster the courage to join together in a revolutionary movement with people of all colors who believe that basic human rights and economic, racial, and gender justice are not unreasonable, pie-in-the-sky goals. After decades of getting played, the sleeping giant just might wake up, stretch its limbs, and tell both parties: Game over. Move aside. It’s time to reshuffle this deck.
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BoboBrazil said:
Did you guys see the exit poll info for Trump? He dominated every age group, income group, and both women and men voters.
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What about blacks and latinos?

Fwiw trump dominates almost every demographic of the gop except evangelicals, and even there he's doing better than any other non evangelical candidate has ever gotten, which is why he got so close to cruz in iowa.
 
Democrats
Voting percentage reported 98%

Bernie Sanders 60%
Hillary Clinton 38%

Republicans
Voting percentage reported 98%

Donald Trump 35%
John Kasich 16%
Ted Cruz 12%
Jeb (John E. Bush) 11%
Marco Rubio 11%
Chris Christie 7%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Ben Carson 2%

Cruz has cermented third now having a 2k lead over Jeb!
 
Prodigal Son said:
Shocker, right? Hence my mentioning globalization.

Bush was reelected in 2004. People weren't literally brainwashing themselves from global social media in 2004. You'd be surprised how many 'Berniebros' aren't even American and how much that's had an effect on his perceived massive following.
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I'm well aware how many Bernie Bros aren't American. It's very apparent. But the number of actual voters who give a shit about foreign opinion of US politics to the degree it influences their vote is quite small.
 
cpp_is_king said:
What about blacks and latinos?

Fwiw trump dominates almost every demographic of the gop except evangelicals, and even there he's doing better than any other non evangelical candidate has ever gotten, which is why he got so close to cruz in iowa.
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They didn't show the black and latino polling from what I saw. Trump also won the evangelical vote in New Hampshire.
 
Macho Madness said:
I want to see these 18-29 year olds (I'm 29 myself) show that they'll stay politically active in midterm elections. They weren't there in the 2014 elections, they aren't showing up for state government elections. That's my problem with the Bernie political "revolution." It doesn't begin and end with the presidency.

If this shit truly matters to you, vote. BUT ALWAYS VOTE.
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Fair concern...

Yet again, i there more or less likely to show up if Hillary wins?

If people want change, a chance of Change is better than guaranteed status quo.

People supporting bernie would rather hsve bernie in the white house, regardless of WhaT's in Congress.

Hillary working better with republicans? First, im not convinced if true, second not sure that would be a good thing... so yeah. I dont see the point of your post
 
Dude Abides said:
I'm well aware how many Bernie Bros aren't American. It's very apparent. But the number of actual voters who give a shit about foreign opinion of US politics to the degree it influences their vote is quite small.
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which is a shame, really, given how America stacks up against a lot of these other countries. maybe we should start taking the hint.
 
Las7 said:
Ca3QyHmW0AE5gbO.png


I just hope that people apologize, a lot of people brushed off reparations because virtually all mainstream candidates don't address this issue. This is a legitimate problem the Black community can have with Sanders and I understand them if they don't vote for him because of it. I completely understand Coates, not going for Jill for example for practical reasons but i sincerely hope that Bernie's campaign do treat this topic very seriously. There needs to be a fast track to racial justice and the shit minority voters go through every single day. If you are fighting for the little guy, there is no community more impacted by the last two decades of middle class recession and upward mobility than the African American community. The financial meltdown and housing collapse disproportionately effected minorities, the loan sharks like a real predator targeted minorities and were successful in bankrupting whole communities, while leaving families out on the street.
Without address this fundamental fact and focusing on those who were ruined by the last financial collapse Sander's coalition will never be inclusive to all creeds and races.
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I think a lot of people read the article and automatically assumed that because it was critical of Sanders it implied support for Hillary, so I'm happy to see this.
 
Dude Abides said:
I'm well aware how many Bernie Bros aren't American. It's very apparent. But the number of actual voters who give a shit about foreign opinion of US politics to the degree it influences their vote is quite small.
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I don't even think it's a negative that some of the Bernie Bro's aren't American, luckily in this new social media landscape, huge swaths of advertisement and digital canvasing can be done from anywhere in the world. I'd argue that Bernie having international appeal is a net positive for his campaign.
 
Dude Abides said:
I'm well aware how many Bernie Bros aren't American. It's very apparent. But the number of actual voters who give a shit about foreign opinion of US politics to the degree it influences their vote is quite small.
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I wouldn't underestimate the impact of the media and social networking, but I hear you.
 
sphagnum said:
I think a lot of people read the article and automatically assumed that because it was critical of Sanders it implied support for Hillary, so I'm happy to see this.
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Wasn't it critical of US politics, simply using Sanders's otherwise pretty consistent radicalism as a lens?
 
sphagnum said:
I think a lot of people read the article and automatically assumed that because it was critical of Sanders it implied support for Hillary, so I'm happy to see this.
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And it was touted on GAF as illustration of Bernie losing the black vote, which was an exercise in stereotyping to begin with, and now looks even sillier.
 
Dude Abides said:
I'm well aware how many Bernie Bros aren't American. It's very apparent. But the number of actual voters who give a shit about foreign opinion of US politics to the degree it influences their vote is quite small.
Click to expand...

A lot of them aren't even Bros!
 
Cesare Borgia said:
To me the bigger tell on Clinton and black people: they'll sell you down the river if it's politically expedient. .
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Or in Bill's case, execute a mentally handicapped black man to stifle media reports about his sexual misconduct and undermine Republican dog whistle attacks about Dems being soft on crime.
 
Las7 said:
Ca3QyHmW0AE5gbO.png


I just hope that people apologize, a lot of people brushed off reparations because virtually all mainstream candidates don't address this issue. This is a legitimate problem the Black community can have with Sanders and I understand them if they don't vote for him because of it. I completely understand Coates, not going for Jill for example for practical reasons but i sincerely hope that Bernie's campaign do treat this topic very seriously. There needs to be a fast track to racial justice and the shit minority voters go through every single day. If you are fighting for the little guy, there is no community more impacted by the last two decades of middle class recession and upward mobility than the African American community. The financial meltdown and housing collapse disproportionately effected minorities, the loan sharks like a real predator targeted minorities and were successful in bankrupting whole communities, while leaving families out on the street.
Without address this fundamental fact and focusing on those who were ruined by the last financial collapse Sander's coalition will never be inclusive to all creeds and races.
Click to expand...

Call me a cynic, but this wasn't brought up once between Iowa and NH... Now it's surfacing again right before SC? If people are passionate about this issue, why isn't it sustained? It's not like Coates doesn't have access to a large platform to keep attention to said issue if he wanted too.
 
I wonder how Bernie will handle the crushing media pressure from the GOP if he gets the nomination.

Will he be able to weather 24/7 news jumping on every last thing he says, spinning his words to mean whatever they want, and painting Socialism as the worst thing in the entire world?

With Hillary, we generally have a good idea of how she'd handle it. She's been doing it for years. She's managed made up controversy after made up controversy, including a grueling 12 hour interrogation. But the GOP has been ignoring Bernie this entire time, other than some jokes from Trump, so I really don't know how he'll handle the machine rallying against him and his opinions.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
Hillary will be the nominee, that's simply the reality of the situation.

In terms of the conversation on whether she "deserves" the black vote that's up to black people to decide. There's no question that Clinton policies hurt many black people in the 90s. On the other hand black income increased due to the economic boom of the 90s, and black (and all) poverty decreased quite a bit.

To me the bigger tell on Clinton and black people: they'll sell you down the river if it's politically expedient. This doesn't just apply to black people, it applies to every issue. Obama took a stand on gay marriage before re-election. Hillary waited until after Obama won to take that position. If crime was rising today as it did in the 90s she and many other politicians would not be so sympathetic to criminal justice reforms. That 90s crime problem is what resulted in President Clinton and other democrats passing draconian crime laws. It was politicially expedient.

Yes crime needed to be addressed, yes harsh punishments for violent crimes are fine, however the drug punishments were devastating and unfair. And if I was black I'd look at the recent concern over white people dying of heroin and be disgusted. The empathy shown to small city whites dealing with drugs was nowhere to be seen when black people had the same struggle in the 80s and 90s.

So there's nothing wrong with supporting Sanders, who opposed those draconian laws and has supported criminal justice reform for decades. My only point is simple: Hillary will be the nominee. And you better vote in November because the alternative is far worse. You see what's happening to the Supreme Court, you see what's happening in the south with the rejection of Medicaid expansions and voter rights. A republican administration would be far worse for black people (and working class people in general) than a Clinton administration that ultimately will simply be protecting Obama era advances.
Click to expand...

Democrats don't turn out to vote AGAINST something, they turn out to vote FOR something. This is the largest reason mid-term turnout is so low, the dems usually run to the middle and then berate younger voters for not turning out. Why turn-out if the candidate is campaigning on nothing you care about? If HRC is the nominee and her message is "I'm not as bad as Republican X" she will lose the election.
 
Miles X said:
I'd like to know this too.
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Uncommitted till convention would be the logical conclusion, the candidates themselves can endorse someone but the delegates in the end choose who to support.

Primary seasons usually start with several candidates. Ordinarily, candidates drop out of the race after poor showings as the season wears on. So what happens when a candidate drops out after having won some delegates? This is actually a little murky. Ostensibly, the delegates go to the national convention uncommitted, like superdelegates. There, they should be allowed to vote however they choose.

These delegates may also be folded into another candidate's delegates. If a candidate drops out of the race, he or she may endorse a rival candidate in the same party. Once this happens, the delegates formerly belonging to the candidate may pledge to the endorsed one.
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lol
 
cpp_is_king said:
What happens when people drop out? Who gets their delegates?
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jmdajr said:
Good question.
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Miles X said:
I'd like to know this too.
Click to expand...

Primary seasons usually start with several candidates. Ordinarily, candidates drop out of the race after poor showings as the season wears on. So what happens when a candidate drops out after having won some delegates? This is actually a little murky. Ostensibly, the delegates go to the national convention uncommitted, like superdelegates. There, they should be allowed to vote however they choose.

These delegates may also be folded into another candidate's delegates. If a candidate drops out of the race, he or she may endorse a rival candidate in the same party. Once this happens, the delegates formerly belonging to the candidate may pledge to the endorsed one.

By now you surely see how complex the primary system can be.
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http://people.howstuffworks.com/primary2.htm
 
The Technomancer said:
There's that...but then there's also this chart:

Bernie supporters in NH think he's less electable in November. That says "not as worried about him losing the general" to me
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...w-hampshire-primary/56ba40a4981b92a22d052760/
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Probably has a lot to do with the fact that NH voters believe they can vote for Bernie now, but still get Clinton in the primary and not worry about electability at all.

Similar to a lot of evangelical voters in the South throwing in with someone like Santorum as a protest vote to Mittens, knowing full well Mittens would still be the eventual nominee.

Nevada is a big question mark, but seems hard for Sanders to win, especially with SEIU backing Hillary.

Nate Silver had an interesting article today, basically unless you think NH white voters act like voters in the rest of the country, it's a giant uphill slog for Bernie.
 
Las7 said:
Uncommitted till convention would be the logical conclusion, the candidates themselves can endorse someone but the delegates in the end choose who to support.
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The delegates have yet to be selected. They will turn out at the county conventions as uncomitted and wind up backing state delegates for one of the nominees still in it. And then that will turn into state delgates, who in turn will turn into national delegates. Unless there is a giant block of county delegates for one candidate who is out of it (a la Clinton '08), they will probably peter out well before they get to the nominating convention.
 
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