Does anybody really believe Trump has a chance of winning?
- Thread starter joe2187
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Even if Scalia's seat is filled Ruth is 83 and unlikely to serve another 8 years. Seeing how key the SC has been in the past 8 years you need to factor this in to the next POTUS.Wow, so people really think the supreme court vacancy will go unfilled? That's ultra toxic. But yeah, seems like that's a possibility.
notworksafe
Member
if that's what they run on, trump is a lock
DontBeThatGuy
Member
It's unlikely because of the minority vote(and hopefully some last minute dose of common sense), but there's always a chance, and I wouldn't put it past this country to do the unthinkable.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Why would tears be in cereal form
Killing_Joke
Member
How can anyone still think this way after he literally destroyed the GOP with little to no effort?
It's safe to say all bets are off at this point. I still think Hilary will win though.
It's safe to say all bets are off at this point. I still think Hilary will win though.
Laughing Banana
Weeping Pickle
I don't really understand how someone can so confidently and arrogantly say 'No' considering what the guy have achieved so far, despite people mocking and ridiculing him and despite he has upturned many conventional wisdom up their asses and pounded their heads to oblivion.
"We won with highly educated, we won with poorly educated...I love the poorly educated!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdA4ru5Z1aI&t=5m27s
Yes, I'm sure you do.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdA4ru5Z1aI&t=5m27s
Yes, I'm sure you do.
ShironRedshift
Member
Because fortunately, don't need faith in people or anything. Just need faith in math, statistics, and the electoral map which, even if the election does get a lot closer than expected, nonetheless don't actually give him a path to victory bar a catastrophe happening. There just aren't even votes for him to grab to make the math work.
Is rather people vote for Trump than not vote at all, if you truly believe him to be a better candidate. Not because of any fanbase, or because your candidate didn't make it, but because you side with him.
Not voting or voting out of spite on something as important as the presidency is the stupidest shit I've ever heard.
Not voting or voting out of spite on something as important as the presidency is the stupidest shit I've ever heard.
Coolio McAwesome
Member
I am not a fan of Trump and I think he's a clown, but I think he has a real shot at winning for a few reasons:
1) Trump is killing the establishment. The GOP and the media have never been behind him, but he has still performed remakably well in an arena where he has no experience. He has spent far less money than many of his peers have despite having a lot more money to draw from. If he wins the nomination and gets the GOP machine behind him, he will seem like a much more legitimate threat.
2) I don't understand why, but Trump is going to do better with minorities than a lot of people want to admit. He just won the Latino vote in Nevada, for example. I don't think anyone would have predicted that six months ago.
3) His anti-establishment message is going to work VERY well against Hillary. Hillary is the establishment. She has accepted money from big banks, big pharma, private prisons, etc. It won't be hard to paint her as a corrupt politician, a war monger, and a dishonest person.
4) Trump's anti-establishment message will feel like a natural extension of Bernie Sander's well-placed criticism of Hillary, but Trump won't be nearly as diplomatic. Trump would NEVER get tired of hearing about her "damned emails," for instance.
5) To be frank, Donald Trump's positions on health care and trade are a lot more progressive than Hillary's are. Hillary is so far to the right on so many issues that Trump could actually win independent voters.
6) A lot of people believe that the biggest issue in politics is the corruption and corporate influence. Health care costs, corporate welfare, perpetual war, and austerity measures could all be blamed on lobbyist and corporate money to a degree. I think most Americans are wising up to the fact that their government has been bought. On that issue (which is a 'uge issue among Independents) Trump will destroy Hillary.
7) There's still a very real possibility that Hillary is indicted. I don't think she could recover from that.
8) Let's keep in mind that Trump has beaten Clinton in a number of head-to-head polls.
I wouldn't personally vote for the guy, but I think he'll do alright against Hillary. If you're running on an anti-establishment platform (which Trump clearly is) there is no better opponent than Hillary.
1) Trump is killing the establishment. The GOP and the media have never been behind him, but he has still performed remakably well in an arena where he has no experience. He has spent far less money than many of his peers have despite having a lot more money to draw from. If he wins the nomination and gets the GOP machine behind him, he will seem like a much more legitimate threat.
2) I don't understand why, but Trump is going to do better with minorities than a lot of people want to admit. He just won the Latino vote in Nevada, for example. I don't think anyone would have predicted that six months ago.
3) His anti-establishment message is going to work VERY well against Hillary. Hillary is the establishment. She has accepted money from big banks, big pharma, private prisons, etc. It won't be hard to paint her as a corrupt politician, a war monger, and a dishonest person.
4) Trump's anti-establishment message will feel like a natural extension of Bernie Sander's well-placed criticism of Hillary, but Trump won't be nearly as diplomatic. Trump would NEVER get tired of hearing about her "damned emails," for instance.
5) To be frank, Donald Trump's positions on health care and trade are a lot more progressive than Hillary's are. Hillary is so far to the right on so many issues that Trump could actually win independent voters.
6) A lot of people believe that the biggest issue in politics is the corruption and corporate influence. Health care costs, corporate welfare, perpetual war, and austerity measures could all be blamed on lobbyist and corporate money to a degree. I think most Americans are wising up to the fact that their government has been bought. On that issue (which is a 'uge issue among Independents) Trump will destroy Hillary.
7) There's still a very real possibility that Hillary is indicted. I don't think she could recover from that.
8) Let's keep in mind that Trump has beaten Clinton in a number of head-to-head polls.
I wouldn't personally vote for the guy, but I think he'll do alright against Hillary. If you're running on an anti-establishment platform (which Trump clearly is) there is no better opponent than Hillary.
Woo-Fu
Banned
He gets the republican nomination easily. That's been a circus for awhile and he's got the best act.
Can't see him winning the election though. His mere presence is probably going to produce the largest voter turnout for democrats ever just to be safe. Then again, Bush Jr. got re-elected so you have to admit that anything is possible.
I've been watching it with morbid curiosity like it is the longest trainwreck in history.
Can't see him winning the election though. His mere presence is probably going to produce the largest voter turnout for democrats ever just to be safe. Then again, Bush Jr. got re-elected so you have to admit that anything is possible.
I've been watching it with morbid curiosity like it is the longest trainwreck in history.
Wouldn't republican voter turnouts be lower with Trump? Because I can't honestly believe that all of the republican voting base is willing to support this buffoon just because he's the GOP nominee.
I have to imagine there are actually quite a handful of intelligent republicans out there who think this guy is irredeemably unfit for a role as Commander-In-Chief.
And with that exact same idea in mind, I think democratic turnout will be higher. People have to, at some point, realize that this lunacy has to end, and even if you're not a staunch Hillary/Sanders supporter, I could see people voting democrat just to ensure that Trump doesn't get elected.
I have to imagine there are actually quite a handful of intelligent republicans out there who think this guy is irredeemably unfit for a role as Commander-In-Chief.
And with that exact same idea in mind, I think democratic turnout will be higher. People have to, at some point, realize that this lunacy has to end, and even if you're not a staunch Hillary/Sanders supporter, I could see people voting democrat just to ensure that Trump doesn't get elected.
Manmademan
Member
Yep.
Trump's numbers with independents is abysmal, and he's going to lose latinos by significant margins. Romney won 25% of them nationally..I can see this dropping another 5 to 10 points.
Hispanic Republicans, not Hispanics in general
Still, the crowds he attracts are absolutely huge. I think that for every voter he alienates, he might very well be bringing in a new one that wouldn't have voted otherwise.
Big Baybee
Member
Electoral college math isn't there for republicans, Trump or not.
BalishChannel
Banned
I've been saving every post since the beginning that has said something to the effect of, "Donald Trump has no chance" or "Donald's just going to make a fool out of himself" for the sole purpose of if he's elected, I can go back and make a fool out of them.
shadowsdarknes
Member
This seems the most plausible to me.
He's disliked so much within his party that I can imagine a lot of Republicans stay home.
On the contrary, liberals will want to make sure Trump cannot win.
LowEndTorque
Member
I wouldn't put it past the American voters.
The same voters who put Dubya in the White House twice.
The same voters who put Dubya in the White House twice.
Baron Aloha
A Shining Example
Yes. Never overestimate the American electorate.
well i've been saving every announcement post of a 'building a donald trump not-winning crow-eating list' for the sole purpose of if he's not elected, i can go back and make a fool out of them.
my secret? no one knows yet because i'm keeping this fiendishly elegant plan to myself.
I'm keeping a list of all the people keeping various lists to see if they actually publish their lists or not on election day.
Boy their faces are going to be red.
It's good to see you're reconsidering your theory of a GOP smokescreen convention taking the wins away from Trump and pushing Marco forward.
Officerrob
Banned
As the Republican nominee, sure, he has a chance. The electoral college map still heavily favors the Democrats though. With Trump as the nominee, I think we see historic Hispanic turnout
you guys are doing to much reverse psychology, the more you say he can not, the more likely it will happen, as people will feel they are being told who to vote for...here in the UK the Labour party had someone go for leader who everyone said he had no chance...He won by a landslide. if you push the electorate with a message of 'you can not that' they will bite back
balladofwindfishes
Member
No, he lacks minority support, and it's already been shown in past elections that walking back on primary talking points doesn't work.
leatherhat
Member
Trump's biggest strength is taking lower class and middle class blue collar voters from the democrats with his protectionist stance. His biggest weakness would be a huge latino surge to the polls and not matching Romney's numbers with white women.
Hillary's biggest strength is not having an R in front of her name and her biggest weakness is being Hillary Clinton.
President Hillary is the nightmare situation for Republicans, they are turning out regardless of who's the nominee. You will likely have some super rich donors publicly pissed off, but people hate the donor class this election so it would only help Trump.
Hillary's biggest strength is not having an R in front of her name and her biggest weakness is being Hillary Clinton.
President Hillary is the nightmare situation for Republicans, they are turning out regardless of who's the nominee. You will likely have some super rich donors publicly pissed off, but people hate the donor class this election so it would only help Trump.
When did Jeremy Corbyn win an election?
I still don't think he has enough support to get the delegates necessary to secure the nomination, and if he doesn't he won't be the nominee. But I am curious what his campaign would look like.
Something I hadn't really considered is a brokered convention and the rnc nominates him but forces Rubio as VP with the intention of impeaching Trump first chance they get... Nah that would be too crazy even for Republicans.
captainnapalm
Member
Trump's kind of in a unique position, in that he can appear ultra conservative and right-wing when he needs to - like now - but he can also run as the anti-establishment/change candidate when he goes up against someone like Clinton.
I think that gives him more of a chance against her than if he was just a typical Republican candidate like any of the other guys.
I think that gives him more of a chance against her than if he was just a typical Republican candidate like any of the other guys.
This. As disappointing as it is that Trump even has a chance of being president/that he has enough supporters to have a chance at being president, I have no reason to believe that there are enough voters overall to get him into the White House over the Democrats based on previous elections and the current feelings about Trump from non Trump supporters on the Democrat, Independent, and Republican sides.
he did not obviously, I was mainly referring to all the voters being told they should not vote for him because of A,B,C so you create a 'don't tell me who to vote for mantra'
He has destroyed some of the most hateful and vicious Republicans out there. He could easily crush Hillary. Hillary is barely getting by Bernie.
SliceSabre
Banned
Yes very much so. He is extremely appealing to white people(because that is the only group of people he is trying to appeal to) who think minorities have been getting one up on them for too long and think the United States can tell the entire world what to do, when to do it and how to do it and like a good war.
Corbyn won his own party's leadership contest. He cannot win a general election.
I placed my bets before Iowa:
$100 on Trump to win the GOP nomination
$100 on Hillary to win it ALL
so far, I'm looking good to win both bets
At what odds?
Well, let's be frank, the only person he has destroyed so far is low energy Jeb Bush who isn't really all that vicious or hateful.
Was listening to NPR this morning on the way to work and they were interviewing people in Nevada about it. Some people were voting for him and saying he was a moderate, some people were voting for him because they hate corrupt government, and some people were voting for him because they dislike Clinton.
I used to think he had no chance in hell, but now I'm becoming less confident about it. He's definitely got a lot of people on his side. It's just insane.
I used to think he had no chance in hell, but now I'm becoming less confident about it. He's definitely got a lot of people on his side. It's just insane.
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