Does anybody really believe Trump has a chance of winning?

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I want people that think Trump is going to win against Clinton to walk me through the electoral math. What states does he win? What turnout are you expecting? Which demographics vote Trump v Clinton?

I want to see what you guys are seeing.
 
Anoregon said:
Man, I always feel really bad for folks who have such backwards, regressive fathers. My dad is certainly to the right of me (he fucking HATES the Clintons and attributes much of the success of the Clinton years to Newt Gingrich) but he is also completely rational and very intelligent, so he doesn't believe any sort of fox news-type nonsense. Even though we don't see eye to eye on everything, having any sort of political or social discussion with him is never painful or heated.
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The reveal of my dad's personality was a slow burn. One day he was telling me how he thinks humans came from mars and mated with neanderthals, OK I thought, this guy at least has some interesting ideas. Then one day he was listening to Alex Jones, OK, I thought, he likes it ironically. Then finally, he told me he went to a Tea Party thing. It all came into focus.

He's better than my mom at least. ;)
 
Rubenov said:
I really would like to see this math you're talking about.

You know he has 10 of the 14 Super Tuesday states in the bag, with 2 - 3 more that can come his way? He's amassing a delegate advantage while his competition keeps getting nothing or scraps.
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All of super tuesday is proportional allocation and he needs to do win with greater than 35% in them to have a shot at having enough delegates to get the nomination. he also needs to win all the winner take all states including CT which has a 50% threshold to be winner take all.
 
HylianTom said:
Agree.

We keep seeing the old "Hillary is wildly unpopular on the left" and "a lot of Bernie supports won't vote for her" canards, but polling simply does not support these claims, and repeating them over and over doesn't make them true. Too many people are conflating what they see online with real life.
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Thank you. I mean look at these elections so far. They are so close. This means that there are almost as many people voting Sanders as there are Clinton. Do people honestly believe all of those people voting for Sanders are the kind that spew their bull crap on Reddit? Nah. Most of them are quite reasonable and just happen to favor Sanders like myself. I consider myself a huge Sanders supporter and I refuse to even go to r/politics. I would be very surprised if polling was done to find that even 15% of these voters are r/politic regulars.

Yes these "I won't vote for Hillary people" exist but come November with a Trump presidency looming over their heads, these people will come around. Bitter Hillary supporters in 2008 didn't effect anything and neither will bitter Bernie supporters. Especially when there is more on the line than ever. And those people that will vote for Trump were not going to vote for a Democratic runner anyway, they just would have if Sanders won. They are not a lost vote.
 
People keep talking about demographics, but the election comes down to a few swing states. What do his numbers look like there?

Also, there was a study done that showed Trump's support can't be predicted by race, gender, or religion, but only upon one's propensity for authoritarianism or level of fear:

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/11099644/trump-support-authoritarianism

How many Americans have a boner for authority? How many Americans are afraid of terrorism/Mexicans/blacks/Muslims?
 
Veritigo_X said:
I want people that think Trump is going to win against Clinton to walk me through the electoral math. What states does he win? What turnout are you expecting? Which demographics vote Trump v Clinton?
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All of them. You seem not to understand power of the The Art of the Deal:
"The problem with Washington, they don't make deals, it's all gridlock," he proclaimed. "I'll get everybody together. We'll make great deals for the country."
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Trump has also been relatively unchallenged by his opponents, they are all too scrared of him to run attack ads or face off in debates. Look what happened to poor Jeb!. However, Hilary and the Dems HAVE to attack him, he is their only target if he gets the nomination. Clinton has been around so long that her negatives are already known, but as Trump has to focus on 1 person and fill up 3 hour debate he looks more and more foolish, just looks at his debate performances over time, each gets more and more sloppy as the moderators have more time to ask him questions. The spotlight of policy does not relect well on The Don.

Also people say that he is teflon, "CANT STUMP WONT STUMP," but the secret is that he actually is suffering, just not among his fucking crazy base, but among everyone else. His crazy base can get him a nomination, but you know what get you a presidency? EVERYONE FUCKING ELSE HE HAS BURNED WITH HIS DUMBASS COMMENTS.
 
RPGCrazied said:
Yep. Politics will be gone. Thanks Trump. I can't even imagine a world with no President or government. Is this how Fallout starts?
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We have had a world without any presidents or governments before, it isn't too hard to imagine when it has already historically happened.
 
kame-sennin said:
People keep talking about demographics, but the election comes down to a few swing states. What do his numbers look like there?

Also, there was a study done that showed Trump's support can't be predicted by race, gender, or religion, but only upon one's propensity for authoritarianism or level of fear:

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/23/11099644/trump-support-authoritarianism

How many Americans have a boner for authority? How many Americans are afraid of terrorism/Mexicans/blacks/Muslims?
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There really hasn't been a lot of swing-state polling for the general election yet but I'm quite concerned about the most recent Quinnapiac poll of Ohio which shows Trump beating Clinton by 2 points

Clinton needs to give people a reason to vote for her other than she wouldn't be as bad as Trump and so far she has failed to make the case
 
Veritigo_X said:
I want people that think Trump is going to win against Clinton to walk me through the electoral math. What states does he win? What turnout are you expecting? Which demographics vote Trump v Clinton?

I want to see what you guys are seeing.
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Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, West Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania
 
Splendor said:
Trump has also been relatively unchallenged by his opponents, they are all too scrared of him to run attack ads or face off in debates. Look what happened to poor Jeb!. However, Hilary and the Dems HAVE to attack him, he is their only target if he gets the nomination. Clinton has been around so long that her negatives are already known, but as Trump has to focus on 1 person and fill up 3 hour debate he looks more and more foolish, just looks at his debate performances over time, each gets more and more sloppy as the moderators have more time to ask him questions. The spotlight of policy does not relect well on The Don.

Also people say that he is teflon, "CANT STUMP WONT STUMP," but the secret is that he actually is suffering, just not among his fucking crazy base, but among everyone else. His crazy base can get him a nomination, but you know what get you a presidency? EVERYONE FUCKING ELSE HE HAS BURNED WITH HIS DUMBASS COMMENTS.
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Rubio and Cruz are too pre-occupied fighting with each other over who can get second place than to actually target Trump.

They seem intimidated by him. Either that, or they believe he'll fizzle out and second place will move up, which is why they're fighting each other.
 
Safs Safs Safs said:
Stop taking huelen seriously fuck
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Ask yourself... Why. Would I, or anyone speak so passionately on things they don't believe in only to be hated? Why would someone do that on GAF? We are human, we can be aware of someone being completely horrible, while at the same time, having some admirable qualities.
Mr. Spock: From 1992 through 1996, absolute ruler of more than a quarter of your world, from Asia through the Middle East.
Dr. McCoy: The last of the tyrants to be overthrown.
Scott: I must confess, gentlemen. I've always held a sneaking admiration for this one.
Captain James T. Kirk: He was the best of the tyrants and the most dangerous. They were supermen in a sense. Stronger, braver, certainly more ambitious, more daring.
Mr. Spock: Gentlemen, this romanticism about a ruthless dictator is...
Captain James T. Kirk: Mr. Spock, we humans have a streak of barbarism in us. Appalling, but there, nevertheless.
Scott: There were no massacres under his rule.
Mr. Spock: And as little freedom.
Dr. McCoy: No wars until he was attacked.
Mr. Spock: Gentlemen...
[Everyone but Spock laugh]
Captain James T. Kirk: Mr. Spock, you misunderstand us. We can be against him and admire him all at the same time.
Mr. Spock: Illogical.
Captain James T. Kirk: Totally.
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Keep in mind that different people have different levels of care on different issues. To me, Hillary and trump are both horrible pieces of shit, but I find Trump to be the "lesser of 2 evils" as some would call it. I already pointed out that I like his stance in care for veterans, another thing I like is the TPP stance.
Cybrwzrd said:
Well, Trump is also against the TPP.

That counts too. Sanders is also against it. Hillary on the other hand has flopped around like a fish on this issue. Her husband is why we have NAFTA and why we have lost so many jobs to China.

This is probably the most important issue currently and is largely ignored - because it isn't nearly as flashy as the myriad of social issues that also need to be addressed.
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Trump does not, to the best of anyone's knowledge, support the TPP, like sanders, and as as a sanders supporter, it's a thing they have in common, a thing important to me.

Ask yourself, if your candidate of choice isn't in the running, wouldn't you root for someone that at least stands the same or similarly in issues you care about?

Is it that hard to grasp, or do you think GAF is supposed to be the same on everything simply because we're all-inclusive? Respectful discussion, even when parties don't agree, is not a bad thing, and talking about what matters to you gets people thinking. Then again, these are just the thoughts of myself, a simple registered democrat, who is not voting Trump.
 
Tagyhag said:
I

We're supposed to be a democracy, and the majority of people could vote for someone, and not get what they want.

HOW DOES THAT MAKE SENSE?
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We're not a direct democracy. Think back to grade school and saying the pledge of allegiance

"I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all"

We're a constitutional republic which has aspects of a democracy but isn't pure mob rule.
 
border said:
It's entirely possible that "the crazies" may forgive him for backpedaling in hopes that he's just doing it to get a broad base.

Did you happen to hear the This American Life story that profiled a teenaged gay, black Trump supporter? His entire support of Trump was based on the idea that he probably might support gay marriage. In a recent debate Trump stated in relatively vague terms that he would probably seek to appoint Supreme Court Justices that might overturn the gay marriage ruling. The Trump fan just shrugged it off by concluding that he had to say that to get votes, but would really stay in favor of gay marriage if elected.

There's limitless self-delusion and optimism when it comes to both Sanders and Trump.
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Oy vey. link?
 
I mean, it is true that Trump used to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights/marriage.

But then he wanted to be the Republican presidential nominee.
 
Yes, I think he can win.

Right now, he's making a lot of noise to drown out the dissenting opinions from the numerous detractors with whom he's competing for the nomination. He cannot properly address his opponents one on one so he's lobbing grenades wildly around the room to handle them -- political poise and decorum be damned -- and it's been working flawlessly.

Once the nomination has been secured, you'll see a different Trump. He'll scale back his vitriolic rhetoric, exercise more restraint, and present himself more "presidentially" to win the hearts of voters who had been once turned off by his immature bluster and political grandstanding. The support he'll receive from the defeated GOP candidates will legitimize his dubious credentials, and his VP will likely be someone who'll give voters the impression there'll be someone "stable" in the White House to rein him in, even though that's not the VP's job.

Can he win? Absolutely.
 
kame-sennin said:
I can easily see him taking these states. Someone get Tim Russert out here, what are his EC numbers like with these states?
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Trump is doing what other Republicans have failed to do.
He is taking about jobs, protectionism, punishing companies who lay off people and ship jobs abroad.

morons like Cruz and Rubio talk stupid about scrapping Capital Gains and cutting taxes for the rich

Working class people don't have shares, they don't give a fuck about scrapping Capital Gains. Cruz is dumb

Trump is targeting low income working class. And he is beasting Cruz and Rubio on it.

If he gets enough angry low educated, low income working class voters on his side; he is gonna nab multiple Rust Belt States
 
benjipwns said:
I mean, it is true that Trump used to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights/marriage.

But then he wanted to be the Republican presidential nominee.
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This is also something to keep in mind. He also has flipped flopped on parties whenever it's convinient.

For better AND for worse, he is his own man and does fit within the confines of his party. Take that as you will.
 
The GOP nomination? I don't see how he doesn't at this point unless the party takes it away from him and anoints Rubio. If you look at this article with 538's delegate forecast, Rubio is going to have to MASSIVELY outperform the Dolan on a scale that I don't believe he actually can in order to get to 1,237.

The general election? Nope, too many brown people that vote in this country. They're going to sink him.
 
The largest fallacy with Trump's story among the media and his supporters is confusing the loudest voice in the room as somehow being the most relevant.

There are enough educated people, women, minorities etc. in the US that in a pure numbers game, most of those people will hold their nose and vote for Hilary. I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist but given their past relationship I feel that he's a Clinton plant. Cut right to the chase and drop the usual right wing dogwhistle language and a number of people will and have continued to eat it right up.

It's not enough to win in the general though. Nothing was learned in 2012, but I guarantee just like that election, Fox News will still be the only news source trying to call it for Trump on election day.
 
He'll definitely be the GOP nominee and I think still Hillary will beat him but it's going to be close. Which is quite scary.
 
The scary thing is that I absolutely think he has a shot at winning the general election. All we need is one big economic downturn or one big terrorist attack to get enough people to not trust the Democrats and vote Republican. And seeing as there's no way Trump isn't getting the nomination, he'd end up President, and that though scares the piss out of me.

For God's sake, make sure you vote! Don't leave it up to chance just because you can't see him winning. Vote!
 
kame-sennin said:
I love the condescension. "We won't get any democracy and we'll like it!"
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Direct democracy can be pretty horrible for minorities. Hell, there is a reason Madison spoke against them in the federalist papers:

"[A] pure democracy, by which I mean a society consisting of a small number of citizens, who assemble and administer the government in person, can admit no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will be felt by a majority, and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party. Hence it is, that democracies have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have, in general, been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths."

The rights of minorities shouldn't be subject to the whims of the majority.
 
BigDug13 said:
Is it an underestimation of Trump or an overestimation of voter intelligence?
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Neither, what's happening is an overestimation of the Republican primary voting base and an underestimating of the general voting public (including General election voting Republicans).
 
He definitely has a chance. If you genuinely believe he has no shot why don't you go win yourself some money.

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Cruz having the worst odds makes me smile.
 
I'm seriously beginning to think Trump will win because he is going to tap a nerve and turn people out who never voted before winning close battleground States. Hillary just doesn't do it for a lot of people, myself included.
 
I'd be curious to see him win the nomination if only to see how he fares in the general election numbers wise.

Keep seeing the supposed Latino vote getting tooted around for Nevada when you're basically talking about less than half the slice of an already tiny slice of the entire pie of Nevada voters. It's almost laughable how much the internet at large wants to troll about with the idea that it's somehow relevant to his minority polling in a general vs his polling specifically among republicans. He'll probably have support in a general sure, but by far his demographic is two things. Old and white. Not much else in a general specifically.
 
Chris R said:
I'm seriously beginning to think Trump will win because he is going to tap a nerve and turn people out who never voted before winning close battleground States. Hillary just doesn't do it for a lot of people, myself included.
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You're right that Trump will turn people out, but they aren't going to vote for him.

I feel like people are forgetting minority voters. White people can't win elections by themselves anymore.
 
Breakbeat said:
If this isn't sarcasm, people like you make me furious. Generals of this importance are not the time to take the ideological high ground. Swallow your pride and vote.
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Nah, The Party is already back on the ballot. They should be fine.

Not that my vote would do anything for them anyway.
 
To win Trump needs about 65% of the white vote. Romney had 60% in 2012. a 5% swing is not out of the question under the right conditions. (major terrorist attack, recession, another Hillary scandal, etc.)
 
The Horror the horror said:
Yes, I think he can win.

Right now, he's making a lot of noise to drown out the dissenting opinions from the numerous detractors with whom he's competing for the nomination. He cannot properly address his opponents one on one so he's lobbing grenades wildly around the room to handle them -- political poise and decorum be damned -- and it's been working flawlessly.

Once the nomination has been secured, you'll see a different Trump. He'll scale back his vitriolic rhetoric, exercise more restraint, and present himself more "presidentially" to win the hearts of voters who had been once turned off by his immature bluster and political grandstanding. The support he'll receive from the defeated GOP candidates will legitimize his dubious credentials, and his VP will likely be someone who'll give voters the impression there'll be someone "stable" in the White House to rein him in, even though that's not the VP's job.

Can he win? Absolutely.
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So he can get away with a year of BS, hate speech, and general craziness as long as he acts like he meant none of that closer to election?
 
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