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[Valhelm]

Yeah. I hit post early. So I don't understand why people still think that he's going to win. It's just not feasible.

It's very feasible, but it's also unlikely. Because mobilizing young voters and other unlikelies is so vital to his campaign, he's continuing to gain support among every demographic except non-millennial black voters. Should he keep up this momentum (which I doubt), persistent close wins can make up for Clinton's massive wins in the South.

Although, if the superdelegates don't budge, this is moot.

 

[MThanded]

I blame big sean for detroit lateness.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Back to ~3% Bernie lead?

 

[Draconian]

Good point. I can't believe it's taken this long to point out.

Did you just enter this thread? It's been pointed out numerous times already.

 

[Nothing1016]

Because of the media and campaign messaging will surely be " she should have won" "look at the polls" "the electorate is turning towards Sanders"

Because nobody thought he had a chance in this state, and momentum in other states with similar electorates/mindshare is a thing.

The narrative for Sanders fans in the next few weeks will become "You can't trust the polls" or "You never know what might happen". It's a ray of hope for a campaign that was all but defeated a week ago. Things are actually still quite grim for Sanders, but this is a reason for them to continue on and be energized.

It doesn't seem like these reasons are good enough to overcome a 670 delegate gap.. but maybe I'm naive.

 

[Ashodin]

#feelthebern #downwiththequeen

Lead back up to 24k!!!

 

[NimbusD]

So Wayne County is at 75% ie 180k votes, so let's make a broad assumption and assume another 60k votes up for grabs.

If Hillary continues with her 60% win of that 60k, she gets 36k to Bernie's 24k. That's a 12k gap closure.

He's currently ahead by 24.5k, though.

So Hillary needs a miracle of votes to turn this around. In other words, almost none of Detroit reporting.

That would also be assuming that she somehow catches up in other populated counties where bernie leads and haven't all reported yet. Doubt it's gonna happen. Might get closer but not gonna break through I don't think.

 

[Kickz]

Yaaas King B back up by more than 2%!

Hold!!!!!!!

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Oooh, Bernie just picked up a few thousand votes. I guess they are reporting them in chunks for one candidate or another -- which makes more sense now that I think about it.

 

[RoKKeR]

Like 200 votes separate Kasich and Cruz now. Can Kasich stay in second in Michigan. I hope he does.

I pray that he does, but I'm not optimistic.

Fuck Cruz btw

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

I'd laugh so hard if Wayne County went from 84% to 100% in one fell swoop and shot Clinton up by some unbeatable amount.

I don't mean that in some anti-Sanders way. It'd just be funny if it was like "Wow, Sanders is doing amazing right now. I can't believe he's--*THUD*...Well, fuck."

 

[maabus1999]

LOL, CNN just explained how Clinton can lose but due to the bonus delegates in areas that vote more Clinton (heavy on minorities), she might get more delegates in the end.

 

[hipsterpants]

Bernie would need some Clinton in the South-esque wins to even have a chance at the nom, doesn't he? These ties make for some great entertainment though.

 

[SolarPowered]

But that sort of bullying and crass appeal only really appeals to a certain demographic. I can't see the middle and left being enamoured with it. I feel like Bernie has it in him to make socialism attractive again, which to be fair, he's sort of already doing.

I don't think it was ever attractive in the US. This will be a new thing for us if were to get the presidency.

 

[Thagomizer]

unless Bernie blew hildawg out of the water in Michigan , this virtual tie does nothing to make up ground in delegate counts. It was a very good night for hildawg

I wouldn't really say "very good."

It's fine. Sure, it doesn't really change the math of the race at all, but this is going to be a really bad couple of news cycles. Nobody's going to care about the delegate math when the polling got blown the fuck up like this; it's just going to be dismissed as sour grapes whenever it's brought up that nothing has meaningfully changed in the mathematics.

Sanders shanking the polling expectations is a much juicier story than delegate math.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

Lol then why are we making a big deal out of this? A close race in any state is bad for bernie no matter what.

It's a pretty serious miscalculation on multiple levels is all.

 

[eyeball_kid]

It's very feasible, but it's also unlikely. Because mobilizing young voters and other unlikelies is so vital to his campaign, he's continuing to gain support among every demographic except non-millennial black voters. Should he keep up this momentum (which I doubt), persistent close wins can make up for Clinton's massive wins in the South.

Although, if the superdelegates don't budge, this is moot.

Yeah, I'm listening to the NPR Politics stream, and they were talking about earlier that Bernie's campaign adviser, who is apparently a very experienced Democratic elections guy, is basically saying the Sanders path to victory is picking up a lot of northern and western states, then going to the convention and hoping to get some of the pledge delegates to switch.

 

[MThanded]

Michigan got bonus delegates too. Next level delegate tech.

 

[x3sphere]

Terrible night for Rubio, he really needs to drop out. If anything it would give Kasich more attention and he seems to be gaining some momentum at least.

 

[mugurumakensei]

I really like Bernie but the idea of him winning the primary and going up against Trump makes me extremely nervous. Trump will blast him for being a frail old man, and for being a socialist, and it will be really effective IMO. Especially the latter - the Cold War is over but I have a feeling the socialist label is still a political death sentence in a general election. I have way more confidence in Hillary holding her own against the likes of Trump.

Here's the thing. With voter ID laws on the books in more than few swing states, the Democratic Party needs an energized set of voters. Trump actually has that on the Republican side. I fear Trump vs Hillary will almost certainly hand Trump the presidency.

 

[B-Dubs]

Bernie would need some Clinton in the South-esque wins to even have a chance at the nom, doesn't he? These ties make for some great entertainment though.

Pretty much. Even winning here does nothing for him other than rile up his supporters and get him more money.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

LOL, CNN just explained how Clinton can lose but due to the bonus delegates in areas that vote more Clinton (heavy on minorities), she might get more delegates in the end.

Oh man, that'll go over well.

 

[StylesClash]

LOL wow guys and gals.

Itsfuckingnothing.gif

 

[AniHawk]

so the gop primary really came down to ted cruz and donald trump. i can't imagine what the rnc must be thinking.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Grand Rapids helping to keep Bernie ahead.

 

[maabus1999]

Bernie would need some Clinton in the South-esque wins to even have a chance at the nom, doesn't he? These ties make for some great entertainment though.

He has to win California/New York and other major delegate states post Mar 15th by 50+ points to get a surge in delegates. Not going to happen in reality.

 

[hipsterpants]

Yeah, I'm listening to the NPR Politics stream, and they were talking about earlier that Bernie's campaign adviser, who is apparently a very experienced Democratic elections guy, is basically saying the Sanders path to victory is picking up a lot of northern and western states, then going to the convention and hoping to get some of the pledge delegates to switch.

So Sanders doesn't have a path to victory.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Oh man, that'll go over well.

Actually, Obama benefited from this a lot in 2008, as well.

 

[smokeymicpot]

Terrible night for Rubio, he really needs to drop out. If anything it would give Kasich more attention and he seems to be gaining some momentum at least.

He should save himself some embarrassment since the debate is Thursday. Guess he will stay in to play spoiler seeing if he can win his state.

 

[MartyStu]

Good point. I can't believe it's taken this long to point out.

It hasn't?

It is consistently brought up.

Because of how democrats set up their primaries, Sanders has been pretty much doomed from the start.

What makes this interesting to people who do not have major stakes in either camp is that Sanders is putting up a legitimate fight despite the fact that Clinton's mere presence in the election should have almost instantly shut him out.

 

[SolarPowered]

Bernie would need some Clinton in the South-esque wins to even have a chance at the nom, doesn't he? These ties make for some great entertainment though.

Yeah, they'd be beyond unlikely wins.

 

[NimbusD]

Nope. Every one is proportional. It's why it'll be hard for Bernie to actually win. He can't just do better than Hillary has. He has to catch up to her, first. Each loss hurts him, but at this point, so does each tie, and even tiny victories can hurt, if they're not big enough.

I mean sure, if you mean in the sense that anything but an outright huge win is something that CNN and others won't spin into a Clinton positive thing.

 

[RoKKeR]

Terrible night for Rubio, he really needs to drop out. If anything it would give Kasich more attention and he seems to be gaining some momentum at least.

He's tanking in Idaho too.

Would be legendary if he dropped out before Florida, but he'll keep holding out with false hope and will hopefully get trounced there.

 

[massoluk]

so the gop primary really came down to ted cruz and donald trump. i can't imagine what the rnc must be thinking.

"We should have backed Kasich =("

 

[billeh]

Bonus delegates. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

They just make this shit up as they go along.

 

[bluelightningduo]

Check mark Bernie at The Guardian

 

[Slackerish]

Ontonagon County, showing 0% in...

 

[OpinionatedCyborg]

Rubio just barely under the 20% threshold in Idaho right now.

 

[Thagomizer]

Guardian just called it for Bernie

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...chigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016

 

[GK86]

He should save himself some embarrassment since the debate is Thursday. Guess he will stay in to play spoiler seeing if he can win his state.

Trump is going to have a field day at the debate if he stays in.

 

[danm999]

Guardian called it for Bern After Reading.

 

[eyeball_kid]

So Sanders doesn't have a path to victory.

Who knows? Before tonight everyone was saying Sanders didn't have a path to victory in Michigan. I tend to find that people who take victory for granted are usually surprised by the results.

 

[pigeon]

It's very feasible, but it's also unlikely. Because mobilizing young voters and other unlikelies is so vital to his campaign, he's continuing to gain support among every demographic except non-millennial black voters. Should he keep up this momentum (which I doubt), persistent close wins can make up for Clinton's massive wins in the South.

Although, if the superdelegates don't budge, this is moot.

Wait, I'd like to see the math on this. I don't think Bernie can win by racking up a bunch of 55-45 wins. He's just too far behind. He needs to start getting blowouts.

Now, let me be clear -- this is still a big win. Bernie jumped 20 points in the polls in Michigan. If he jumps 20 points in the polls nationwide, it's a real race. It's still a race he's likely to lose, but that would be a big deal.

More importantly, if Bernie is actually doing better with African-American voters, and if he actually has found his revolution and started turning out youth voters, those are both very, very important for the future of the race.

But it's very hard to tell anything right away, and as noted, Mississippi suggests the opposite is true. We'll need a few more days to get a better view of what just happened.

 

[Valhelm]

Yeah, I'm listening to the NPR Politics stream, and they were talking about earlier that Bernie's campaign adviser, who is apparently a very experienced Democratic elections guy, is basically saying the Sanders path to victory is picking up a lot of northern and western states, then going to the convention and hoping to get some of the pledge delegates to switch.

It's certainly possible, although it will be ugly. Two brokered conventions is hardly conceivable, but it would be a big blow to the entire nomination process.

 

[MThanded]

He's tanking in Idaho too.

Would be legendary if he dropped out before Florida, but he'll keep holding out with false hope and will hopefully get trounced there.

He's going to wait it out and be dead weight to the GOP. He gets destroyed in Florida he's done for.

 

[boiled goose]

called by AP

Sanders wins Michigan.

The Bern is real.

biggest upset in primary history.

 

[maabus1999]

Bonus delegates. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

They just make this shit up as they go along.

Uhhh no....just most people not into politics or party rules (majority of Bernie supporters to be honest) have no idea how primaries work on either the GOP or Dem side.

 

[loki 16]

Yay Bernie won!

 

[Battersea Power Station]

AP called it Bernie too! Yeah, son!

 

[EnlightenedMint]

AP calling it for Sanders.

The Associated Press ‏@AP 1m1 minute ago

BREAKING: Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan. @AP race call at 11:30 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall

https://twitter.com/AP/status/707423466463633408