Support NeoGAF

[Miles X]

Can somebody tell me why Bernie is predicted to win by loads in Hawaii and Alaska? I saw a good argument as to why he won't in Hawaii but lost it.

 

[giga]

Yeah NY is going to be ugly, in general we like Hillary she was a good senator. It's going to be fun watching my county come in since she's lives here.

I hope Gillibrand runs in 2024.

 

[Kangi]

Can somebody tell me why Bernie is predicted to win by loads in Hawaii and Alaska? I saw a good argument as to why he won't in Hawaii but lost it.

Alaska's basically "Nebraska by sea". As for Hawaii, no idea.

 

[danm999]

Can somebody tell me why Bernie is predicted to win by loads in Hawaii and Alaska? I saw a good argument as to why he won't in Hawaii but lost it.

The argument I've seen online is that she lost it very badly in 2008 (but when you consider who her opponent was you might say that doesn't have much chance of recurring) and Tulsi Gabbard.

Alaska nobody knows. Pure guesswork.

 

[Miles X]

Alaska's basically "Nebraska by sea". As for Hawaii, no idea.

The argument I've seen online is that she lost it very badly in 2008 (but when you consider who her opponent was you might say that doesn't have much chance of recurring) and Tulsi Gabbard.

Alaska nobody knows. Pure guesswork.

Thanks. I'm hoping she clinches Hawaii on the the 26th at least, Washington doesn't seem to good for her.

 

[danm999]

Thanks. I'm hoping she clinches Hawaii on the the 26th at least, Washington doesn't seem to good for her.

Washington may well be a very good night for Sanders at this point. I would say it will help him shrink his delegate deficit.

 

[DirtyManos]

The stuff coming out of of Bernie's campaign is basically the "the voters out there in the southern states aren't as informed/are ignorant of Bernie" that you saw a lot from supporters online.

Only this time it's coming officially from the campaign. "Sorry voters, but you chose ignorantly when you voted. This will be for your own good."

Nice to see the campaign is in sync with a lot of their supporters.

 

[PBY]

Washington may well be a very good night for Sanders at this point. I would say it will help him shrink his delegate deficit.

Hes going to have a decent stretch, but its too little too late.

 

[Miles X]

Washington may well be a very good night for Sanders at this point. I would say it will help him shrink his delegate deficit.

It'll be his last big win, and even 60/40 will only close the delegate lead she has by 20. But yeah it should be a good night for him, won't change anything of course.

 

[hawk2025]

Nothing is impossible ~ David bowie

Planet Earth is blue
And there's nothing I can do ~ David Bowie

 

[danm999]

It'll be his last big win, and even 60/40 will only close the delegate lead she has by 20. But yeah it should be a good night for him, won't change anything of course.

Hes going to have a decent stretch, but its too little too late.

Yeah even if it was WTA he'd only shrink the delegate gap by 1/3.

 

[Russ T]

The stuff coming out of of Bernie's campaign is basically the "the voters out there in the southern states aren't as informed/are ignorant of Bernie"

?

 

[CharminUltra]

Planet Earth is blue
And there's nothing I can do ~ David Bowie

He was the nazz
With God-given ass ~ Ziggy Stardust

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

I hope Gillibrand runs in 2024.

Would be interesting, though depending on how the party evolves from now to then she might be seen as a little too conservative/moderate for the nomination. Either way she will be interesting to look out for in the coming years.

 

[DirtyManos]

?

Trying to flip delegates from Hillary that were given to her by voters. A large majority of which have come from minority groups.

Bernies camp wants to make their votes meaningless.

 

[El Odio]

It hasn't even been a day yet and i'm already getting tired of all outlets of social media filling up with this narrative that Clinton won the first half and now it's Bernie's time to shine. I voted for Bernie yesterday here in Illinois with the mindset that Hillary pretty much had it in the bag by that point and now it seems that the writing is on the all with all his supports looking the other way. It feels incredibly annoying, especially since most of these people are the ones spewing crap about Clinton.

 

[excelsiorlef]

?

We'll win the north and that should prove that even though we're still down in delegates that the supers should choose us because we have the northern momentum, the south doesn’t matter.

They won't say that but that's basically what it is

 

[Russ T]

Trying to flip delegates from Hillary that were given to her by voters. A large majority of which have come from minority groups.

Bernies camp wants to make their votes meaningless.

I mean the move feels gross to me, too, but I'm not sure how that's related to what you were insinuating.

We'll win the north and that should prove that even though we're still down in delegates that the supers should choose us because we have the northern momentum, the south doesn’t matter.

They won't say that but that's basically what it is

I mean okay. I'm not seeing it. But I understand where it's coming from now.

But I'm really not seeing it at all.

 

[Tesseract]

Planet Earth is blue
And there's nothing I can do ~ David Bowie

that's danny devito

 

[excelsiorlef]

I mean the move feels gross to me, too, but I'm not sure how that's related to what you were insinuating.



I mean okay. I'm not seeing it. But I understand where it's coming from now.

But I'm really not seeing it at all.

It's a combo of two statements that make it.

The first is what Sanders and his supporters keep claiming: There's no more southern states, very few more states with demographics that tend to support Clinton (aka minorities) so her time is up. It's smooth sailing for Sanders. Not true but that's the claim

Second being we'll convince delegates and super delegates to support us because momentum or just because I'm the "better candidate".

Combined it becomes clear they believe his inability to even be competitive in the South shouldn't count for shit.

 

[ChaosXVI]

It hasn't even been a day yet and i'm already getting tired of all outlets of social media filling up with this narrative that Clinton won the first half and now it's Bernie's time to shine. I voted for Bernie yesterday here in Illinois with the mindset that Hillary pretty much had it in the bag by that point and now it seems that the writing is on the all with all his supports looking the other way. It feels incredibly annoying, especially since most of these people are the ones spewing crap about Clinton.

I'm literally in the same boat. It would be one thing if he had won in Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri yesterday, and kept his losses light in NC and FL...but that didn't happen. He lost all 5 states, and got completely crushed in FL. I voted for him in IL, thinking he had a good chance of winning, but he didn't. And if he didn't win here, how is he supposed to make up the deficit now? Anyone who thinks he can make up the numbers at this point are completely deluded.

 

[Tesseract]

It's a combo of two statements that make it.

The first is what Sanders and his supporters keep claiming: There's no more southern states, very few more states with demographics that tend to support Clinton (aka minorities) so her time is up. It's smooth sailing for Sanders. Not true but that's the claim

Second being we'll convince delegates and super delegates to support us because momentum or just because I'm the "better candidate".

Combined it becomes clear they believe his inability to even be competitive in the South shouldn't count for shit.

you are pulling all this out of your butt, tho

 

[TyrantII]

We'll win the north and that should prove that even though we're still down in delegates that the supers should choose us because we have the northern momentum, the south doesn’t matter.

They won't say that but that's basically what it is

You know who else was King of the North?

 

[Bowdz]

You know who else was King of the North?

Santa Claus aka Kringle the Unjolly.

His cheeks were like roses his nose like a cherry from the blood of the vanquished who's bodies he buried.

 

[Miles X]

It's more like in "true" winner-take-all (Florida, Ohio, etc.) the winner of the statewide vote wins all the delegates while in "winner-take-most" states (this is not the best description, winner-take-most is a more accurate description for the many of the earlier Super Tuesday primaries) the statewide winner takes all the at-large delegates while the winner of each congressional district takes all of the CD delegates, which means that in practice it is fairly close to winner take all unless it's super close (i.e. Missouri).

going forward:

"True" Winner Take All
Arizona
Delaware
Nebraska
Montana
New Jersey
South Dakota

Winner Take All (By CD and Statewide)
Wisconsin
Maryland
Pennyslvania*
Indiana
West Virginia
California

Winner Take All CDs, Proportional w/ WTA Threshold Statewide
Connecticut**

Winner Take Most CDs, Proportional w/ WTA Threshold Statewide
New York
Washington***

Proportional w/ a Winner Take All Threshold
Utah

Proportional w/ no threshold
Rhode Island
Oregon
New Mexico

*like in Illinois, a loophole primary, delegates are directly elected
**if a candidate gets 50% or more they take all the state's delegates, not just the at-large ones
***no WTA threshold for at-large delegates

Coming back to this, what's the difference between True Winner takes all and Winner takes all CD and Statewide, basically the same no?

 

[RedSparc]

you are pulling all this out of your butt, tho

Aye, I'm starting to think this tool hates Sanders and his supporters more then GOPosaurs.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Beat all the polls? And isn't AZ going to go Clinton because of the hispanic vote?

He knows he lost and he's playing his base's ignorance of how delegates work and their pure hype to squeeze money.

Like, he can't be serious, right?

 

[Cerium]

But I thought Bernie said Money = Votes???

 

[Russ T]

It's a combo of two statements that make it.

The first is what Sanders and his supporters keep claiming: There's no more southern states, very few more states with demographics that tend to support Clinton (aka minorities) so her time is up. It's smooth sailing for Sanders. Not true but that's the claim

Second being we'll convince delegates and super delegates to support us because momentum or just because I'm the "better candidate".

Combined it becomes clear they believe his inability to even be competitive in the South shouldn't count for shit.

That's not...

That doesn't...

What?

Fair enough if that's what you believe, but, uh, nah.

 

[ivysaur12]

But I thought Bernie said Money = Votes???

This has to be trolling.

 

[numble]

Coming back to this, what's the difference between True Winner takes all and Winner takes all CD and Statewide, basically the same no?

True winner take all: you just need the plurality statewide, even if you lose a CD or two.
The other one: you lose delegates if you lose a CD.

 

[Tesseract]

Will the GE uncover who the true birther is, or who belongs in jail more

 

[Not]

This has to be trolling.

I dunno. It's something I would've said without irony when I was 18

 

[Russ T]

I dunno. It's something I would've said without irony when I was 18

That's true enough, yeah.

Still, pretty funny regardless, haha.

 

[Miles X]

True winner take all: you just need the plurality statewide, even if you lose a CD or two.
The other one: you lose delegates if you lose a CD.

Thank you, so when you get a state like Missouri where Trump pretty much won every district, it's more or less winner takes all. But if it's 50/50 in terms of district won it's a 50/50 split on the CD's?

 

[numble]

Thank you, so when you get a state like Missouri where Trump pretty much won every district, it's more or less winner takes all. But if it's 50/50 in terms of district won it's a 50/50 split on the CD's?

Yes. So if it is 5 delegates per district, and Trump wins the most votes statewide but Cruz won a district, Cruz gets 5 delegates, Trump gets the rest.

 

[Miles X]

Yes. So if it is 5 delegates per district, and Trump wins the most votes statewide but Cruz won a district, Cruz gets 5 delegates, Trump gets the rest.

Sweet, thanks!

 

[Macam]

Hillary is going to move closer to the center once the GE comes, blah blah

Almost as funny as the Trump ad. 2 stars.

 

[Slayven]

Sanders fucked up by ignoring the south, then he double down by saying the south was stupid.

 

[Tesseract]

Sanders fucked up by ignoring the south, then he double down by saying the south was stupid.

Unleash your hatred

 

[Armaros]

Unleash your hatred

Judging by reddit, facebook etc, its sander's supporters that are.

Dont think ive seen as many supposed progressives insult minorities (especially AAs) since 2008 when Hillaryis44 folks did so.

 

[Slayven]

Judging by reddit, facebook etc, its sander's supporters that are.

Dont think ive seen as many supposed progressives insult minorities (especially AAs) since 2008 when Hillaryis44 folks did so.

Yeah love the dog whistles"Low Information Voters"

 

[Key789]

Jorge Ramos isn't taking bill O'Reilly's shit

 

[Tesseract]

Judging by reddit, facebook etc, its sander's supporters that are.

Dont think ive seen as many supposed progressives insult minorities (especially AAs) since 2008 when Hillaryis44 folks did so.

Yeah but they are losers

Just like Hillary

Vote jill

 

[MIMIC]

You know how you fight for the cause? Vote Hillary.

I almost threw up.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Yeah but they are losers

Tad Devine, Jeff Weaver, and most of /r/sanders4president?

yeah, true

 

[RedSparc]

Yeah love the dog whistles"Low Information Voters"

Wait... are you talking about republican or democratic low info voters?

 

[Your Entertainer]

Judging by reddit, facebook etc, its sander's supporters that are.

Dont think ive seen as many supposed progressives insult minorities (especially AAs) since 2008 when Hillaryis44 folks did so.

I don't think I've seen so many so-called progressives rail against single payer health care, higher taxes, higher wages. etc as I do here.

Generalizing any incidents you've seen to sanders voters as a whole is a stupid thing to do. Lol reddit too.

I've seen idiot Hillary supporters - here, facebook, irl etc - but am not going to generalize all Hillary supporters as idiots.

 

[Xe4]

I almost threw up.

What's so bad about Hillary? Honest to god actual policy, not "she's establishment" or "she's a liar". What in the world makes Hillary so much worse than Sanders that it makes you want to vomit when you think of voting for her?

 

[Armaros]

I don't think I've seen so many so-called progressives rail against single payer health care, higher taxes, higher wages. etc as I do here.

Generalizing any incidents you've seen to sanders voters as a whole is a stupid thing to do. Lol reddit too.

I've seen idiot Hillary supporters - here, facebook, irl etc - but am not going to generalize all Hillary supporters as idiots.

I do like how the opposite side is disagreements about policy compared to unbridled dog whistle racism and sexism.

Hell we still see examples of the latter here on GAF in political threads.