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[Neoweee]

"After Tuesday’s contests, no other candidate retains a real chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Mr. Rubio dropped out, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is too far behind, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas would need to win the vast majority of the remaining delegates — a near impossibility.

But Mr. Trump still needs to win most of the remaining delegates to avoid a contested convention."

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html?_r=0

I would love to see it come down to a contested convention, but more and more republicans are beginning to back Trump. The last time I checked it was at 53%.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-24084

I disagree with the core premise of the article that Trump's odds increase with Rubio out. With Rubio gone, Cruz has a better lane to start getting the plurality in states, and Kasich might actually win whatever state he decides to go all-in on. Trump has an easier time getting a plurality in a wide pool of candidates than he does in a three-way race that will effectively be two-way in a bunch of states.

Trump's position is a lot more precarious than many realize. There's still almost three more months of primaries, with California and its huge # of delegates voting in June. June! NH and Iowa were only six weeks ago.

 

[Grizzlyjin]

The GOP were idiots having so many people run.

I think what happened is that the pendulum was due to swing back their way after 8 years of President Obama, so everyone wanted in. I honestly expected them to have re-tooled after 2012, but everyone was doubling down on the old rhetoric to appeal to the base since the field was so crowded. Then Trump came along and the circus really got started.

We must be living in some weird alternate timeline. Ben Carson made it longer than Jeb Bush. Kasich is still in the game. Nobody could have predicted anything close to this in August. It's crazy.

 

[GuyKazama]

Sure, I think the GOP establishment would rather nominate Reagan's corpse than Cruz, as well. In their best case scenario, a brokered convention doesn't land on Trump or Cruz.

In this environment, a brokered convention would end the party.

A contested convention would land on either Trump or Cruz, and isn't worth the mess.

This is why the noise now is just the result of people working out the anger/bargaining phase of their grieving process in public.

 

[PenDynasty]

Any Europeans willing to adopt any Americans?

 

[Bellamin]

I think we'll see a record low turnout among Republicans this November if Trump receives the nomination.

 

[NimbusD]

Eh Rubio was dead in the water, him leaving doesn't change things one way or another. NYT themselves even had an article yesterday stating as such with an interactive chart. I'll see if I can dig it up. Really it's Kasich leaving that would hand Donald an uncontested path to 1237 delegates (since Cruz is in it till the end at this point).

 

[gutter_trash]

I disagree with the core premise of the article that Trump's odds increase with Rubio out. With Rubio gone, Cruz has a better lane to start getting the plurality in states, and Kasich might actually win whatever state he decides to go all-in on. Trump has an easier time getting a plurality in a wide pool of candidates than he does in a three-way race that will effectively be two-way in a bunch of states.

LOL, nope. Cruz is only going to win a couple of square states but that's it.

Cruz's appeal is super limited to Religious Nuts and the Tea Party Nuts. Outside of that, he has no room to grow.

Kasich can pretend to be a moderate (which he is not) and have more cross-over apeal.

Trump is actually stepping into the Democrats' backyard and going all protectionist, anti-trade and giving the appearance of looking out for jobs at home.

 

[TheSecondSpitter]

Well yeah, Ford pardoned Nixon. Still, in 1976 it would have been a mess to deny the candidate with the plurality. They couldn't do it then, and certainly couldn't now. Cruz is no Reagan -- he's barely human.

Moreover, from this point on Trump will run regardless of whether he wins the delegates vote and heaven-forbid may engender some sympathy.

How embarrassing would it be for the Republicans if the delegates give the nod to Cruz instead and Trump wins more states at the election at the same mention orchestrating the return of the Clintons to the White House.

 

[SlimySnake]

The Republican party had to hit rock bottom before they could reinvent themselves for the 21st century.

After the 2012 elections, they said they would be more inclusive but continued the anti-black, anti-muslim and anti-immigration rhetoric anyway because they knew it would help them win the 2014 midterms.

They took a gamble and let their party be controlled a bunch of racists. Now they have hit rock bottom with Trump.

After the election, they will pass immigration reform within a few months and might even start courting the black vote.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Any Europeans willing to adopt any Americans?

There's a chance we'll bring our disease with us.

 

[old]

There's no reason for Kasich to stay in the race beyond hanging around so the GOP establishment can hand him the candidacy at a brokered convention. Which, may very well happen.

The GOP establishment doesn't like Trump because he's not a bought-and-paid-for corporatist. He's too rich to be bribed. He's a RINO who supports abortion, gun control, raising taxes on the rich, expanding govnment healthcare, and increasing social spending. Anybody who thinks otherwise hasn't been following politics long enough.

The GOP hates Cruz because he's a fanatical evangelical. He's the second coming of the moral majority. While he's in agreement with the establishment on many platforms, his zealous faith means he won't be willing to compromise his morals to adopt the rest and thats a major problem for them.

Neither of those two can be bought. Kasich can be bought. They want Kasich.

 

[BitStyle]

The inevitable Trump vs Hillary comes ever closer...
sigh...what a mad world we live in.
Most remaining Rubio votes probably would slip into the 'not Trump' category. Ted was really fishing for them on Tuesday.

And of course my state's governor (Florida) endorses him. *sigh*

Yeah, Rick Scott continues to be shit.

 

[JohnsonUT]

Cleveland will be crazy if the convention is contested and various groups decide to come and protest. I don't think it will be 1968 levels, but everything will be available to the world this time.

 

[Perfect Cha0s]

The Republican party had to hit rock bottom before they could reinvent themselves for the 21st century.

After the 2012 elections, they said they would be more inclusive but continued the anti-black, anti-muslim and anti-immigration rhetoric anyway because they knew it would help them win the 2014 midterms.

They took a gamble and let their party be controlled a bunch of racists. Now they have hit rock bottom with Trump.

After the election, they will pass immigration reform within a few months and might even start courting the black vote.

We thought they would become a bit more moderate after 2008 as well, but the trend seems to be:

- Lose Election
- Say they'll become more "inclusive"
- Become less so.

They're reaping what they've sown.

 

[EatinOlives]

Not if they don't believe he is a Republican. There's a not insignificant chance he flips democtrat if elected. That's probably the greatest fear.

Kasich is still there because he's actually a decent candidate. He's a hell of a lot better than Cruz.

The GOP establishment won't sit out an entire election cycle. They have to back someone. The only question is, will they back Trump, or run their own candidate. If they do the latter it's admitting defeat but they get to distance themselves from Trump, short term loss for long term gain. But that's a plan that requires foresight and forgoing a cheap win over doing the right thing, two things the GOP completely lacks at this point.

Kasich is a non-factor. He can't pull in votes to become the nominee, and can't even pull votes to take away from Trump. It's far too late for that. Their only hope there is to clear the field for Cruz to get the not-Trump vote (which is the majority in most states), and be comforted in the fact that Cruz is a piece of shit and will tank horribly in the General. Another loss and it requires they bite the bullet and let Cruz through, but again, that requires the GOP to be sensible about these things.

The back half of the primary season last year was almost entirely "Trump can't be the nominee! Everyone stay in the race until he implodes, aaaaaaaaaany minute now!", which let Trump win by plurality. Then they couldn't pick who to back, letting establishment candidates fight between themselves among Rubio and Jeb. By the time Rubio was the only establishment candidate it was far too late to get any momentum. They kept running these idiotic parallel side campaigns ignoring Trump and it bit them in the ass big time.

 

[shiba5]

Just saw a Republican female I know from College say she will be voting for Hillary if Trump is the nominee. I hope this holds true for many other voters.

My life-long, diet-racist, GOP family members are voting for Hillary. LMAO

 

[PeskyToaster]

My governor (Rick Snyder) hasn't endorsed anyone but they probably told him not to because of Flint. He's like an anti-endorsement now.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Looks like California will be important

 

[jmdajr]

went from let's expand the base to fuck it..

we're going full blown racist!

My hope is that this is truly the last stand of the crazy people at the national level.
Locally they will continue to fuck shit up for years to come.

 

[Wiz]

Neither of those two can be bought. Kasich can be bought. They want Kasich.

Voters definitely don't want Kasich. He loses everywhere except Ohio. He's been a non-factor up until recently. I don't see the GOP going with him as the standard bearer, he has VP labeled all over him though.

 

[Bronx-Man]

If we get a contested convention, the RNC in Cleveland this year is gonna be the mother of all shitstorms.

 

[GuyKazama]

Voters definitely don't want Kasich. He loses everywhere except Ohio. He's been a non-factor up until recently. I don't see the GOP going with him as the standard bearer, he has VP labeled all over him though.

Kasich has a soothing quality to him -- he's like an ointment. He may be able to translate some of what Trump says to nervous Republicans, and deliver Ohio for him.

 

[AniHawk]

Kasich is actually probably the best Republican candidate they've had this year. Which is of course why none of the Republican voters are voting for him, lol! No, the base loves the racist, fascist bully egotist who is just a mascot for his brand instead.

It will be Hillary vs Trump one way or another at this point. What scares me is that Hillary is such a weak candidate for the general election that I fear Trump might actually have a chance of beating her. She has a lot of weaknesses and is very unlikable to the population.

trump is the highest unfavorables of any candidate in this cycle, and he has no strong demographics in states that matter. the math simply isn't there for him.

 

[jmdajr]

If we get a contested convention, the RNC in Cleveland this year is gonna be the mother of all shitstorms.

It's gonna be like this..but without the diversity.

 

[MartyStu]

And of course my state's governor (Florida) endorses him. *sigh*

As a brother Floridian, I feel your pain.

 

[RPGCrazied]

I say the GOP just go with someone else. Trump pretty much has broken a slew of rules. His voters don't deserve to be taken seriously.

 

[Alex_Mexico]

Spoiler

After House of Cards s4, let's get a republican contested convention.

THE clown show to end all clown shows, and hopefully, enough media attention to expose the clowns as what they are.

Whoa there. Easy with the spoilers, man. This isn't the HoC OT. Shit. (I spoiler tagged the untagged spoilers in his original post).

 

[ISWThunder]

In this environment, a brokered convention would end the party.

A contested convention would land on either Trump or Cruz, and isn't worth the mess.

This is why the noise now is just the result of people working out the anger/bargaining phase of their grieving process in public.

I see no way in which Cruz gets the nomination at a brokered convention. He is unliked by his colleagues and has no shot in a general election.

 

[NimbusD]

Whoa there. Easy with the spoilers, man. This isn't the HoC OT. Shit. (I spoiler tagged the untagged spoilers in his original post).

Ugh, even with a spoiler tag, why would I expect it to be a HoC spoiler? Fucking clicked in and Im only two eps in. Awesome.

 

[Mengy]

trump is the highest unfavorables of any candidate in this cycle, and he has no strong demographics in states that matter. the math simply isn't there for him.

What I'm worried about though is that Trump is a wildcard, unbeholden to the GOP establishment. He is also prone to changing positions at will, the man has been a Democrat, an Independent, and now a Republican before, so who knows where he really sits on the issues. Will he move more towards moderate or even left of center for the primary? It's possible. Will he tone down the racist rhetoric for the primary? He might. Can he win over the people who currently aren't voting for him by changing policies to appeal to a more broad demographic? Trump's single greatest strength is selling himself no matter the situation or the odds.

You can't look at his national polling now and conclude the results, because those polls will change as Trump changes his platforms.

 

[TaterTots]

went from let's expand the base to fuck it..

we're going full blown racist!

My hope is that this is truly the last stand of the crazy people at the national level.
Locally they will continue to fuck shit up for years to come.

There could be one good thing to come out of this scare. The sexist, racist people who vote may be discouraged to vote in the future for such candidates. They may develop a, "what's the point?" mentality.........at least I'm telling myself that.

 

[Latvian Hitman]

You can't look at his national polling now and conclude the results, because those polls will change as Trump changes his platforms.

There's no historical precedent that I'm aware of for a candidate with such low favorability halfway through the primary season turning it around and getting all the way to the White House.

Something truly disastrous or scandalous would have to happen to Hillary in order for Trump to take the general.

 

[Javaman]

It's gonna be like this..but without the diversity.

That almost looks like a magic eye 3d poster.

 

[213372bu]

Real missed opportunity in not making the required amount to be 1337.

2 1337 2 b pr3s!d3n7

 

[Meowster]

Just saw a Republican female I know from College say she will be voting for Hillary if Trump is the nominee. I hope this holds true for many other voters.

Hell, I have family that are Republican well-ranking MILITARY that plan on voting for Hillary now that Rubio is out.

 

[Makai]

There's no historical precedent that I'm aware of for a candidate with such low favorability halfway through the primary season turning it around and getting all the way to the White House.

Something truly disastrous or scandalous would have to happen to Hillary in order for Drumpf to take the general.

There's no precedent for anything until it happens.

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

I have a very hard time believing he's going to win 50+% of delegates from here on out, which he needs

Trump and Cruz will run very close in many states, plus there is Kasich

 

[FyreWulff]

Rubio exiting actually made it harder for Trump since Trump was doing stuff like winning Michigan with only 35% of the vote (the other thirds split between Rubio and Cruz)

They basically need Cruz to sweep at this point and either beat out Trump or get close enough that a brokered convention will be more convinced to ditch Trump.


edit: and Kasich is probably staying in solely so that he's "active" all the way to the brokered convention.

 

[theignoramus]

Trump openly threatening violence in the form of riots if the GOP tries to screw him out of the nom.
Can you imagine his rabid constituency stirring up trouble in Cleveland, with that city's racial demographics? Nightmare fuel.

 

[Nekofrog]

It's gonna be like this..but without the diversity.

and fitness.

 

[SpecX]

Just saw a Republican female I know from College say she will be voting for Hillary if Trump is the nominee. I hope this holds true for many other voters.

I wish this were true, but I have a friend who's a republican and he hates Trump, but will vote for him because he's a blind republican and that's been ingrained in his roots. He tries to be intelligent and says he's voting for the republicans and not Trump, but this just shows how much of an idiot he can be. Love the guy and by no means is he racist, but he follows the wrong party due to his upbringings.

On the other hand, one of my family members that's republican decided he will not vote if Trump wins. I argued with him that is doesn't help Trump not get elected, but he would rather not vote since he would hate both candidates than to vote for the lesser evil to him.

 

[Kathian]

Only further hurts Nates gospel when he claimed the reason Trump did not go down as predicted was because the establishment had not turned on him. They did. He batted them away without much issue.

Everyone acted like this would be 2012 but Trumps trajectory has always been more similar to Romney than one of his burnt out competitors. He started as the favourite and will end as the favourite.

Truth is he's the furthest reaching across the GOP base.

 

[B33]

And of course my state's governor (Florida) endorses him. *sigh*

Rick Scott is horrible.

 

[boiled goose]

Hey trump winning the gop nomination is progress. He is a populist who regularly goes against typical gop talking points.

(Just ignore the racism, facism, and violence)

 

[enzo_gt]

Trump vs Clinton is gonna be so depressing.

Maybe, but for entertainment's sake dodging the Bern was probably the better outcome.

Can't imagine Trump vs. Bernie: The battle of who can steer the current question to their main talking point fastest.

 

[Soapbox Killer]

As a "moderate american voter", this entire selection of candidates, on both sides suck. I used to say it would take "an act of God for me to vote for Hillary Clinton!" It would seem that "God" is not without a sense of irony.

 

[Boke1879]

Hell, I have family that are Republican well-ranking MILITARY that plan on voting for Hillary now that Rubio is out.

Have a few moderate friends who usually vote Republican say they'll either write in a name or vote Hillary if Trump is the nom. We'll see.

 

[Pyrokai]

Not sure where else to post this or ask..... But this formula that has accurately predicted every election since 1912 correctly except for one (!) predicts a >96% chance of Trump winning if he is the nominee...

http://m.sfgate.com/elections/article/Statistician-with-near-perfect-election-formula-6856643.php

What merrit does this hold and should I panic?

Spoiler

Originally came across this link from BuzzFeed.........FYI........

 

[Boke1879]

As a "moderate american voter", this entire selection of candidates, on both sides suck. I used to say it would take "an act of God for me to vote for Hillary Clinton!" It would seem that "God" is not without a sense of irony.

LMFAOOO

 

[Pamplemousse]

Good! Good!
Operation Chaos is going according as I have forseen

It's "proceeding as I have foreseen."

This is good news if Trump can legit do it. A contested convention could lead to riots.