How long do you want/expect each VR headset generation to last?
- Thread starter viveks86
- Start date
RobertMuldoon
Neo Member
It's a hard one to say, but I dare say that PSVR will age sooner than the others.
However that opinion didn't stop me from preordering PSVR over the others
However that opinion didn't stop me from preordering PSVR over the others
I think it'll be 18-24 month release cycles with one previous cycle supported each time.
Like everything made for CV2 has to still support CV1. CV3 must support CV2, etc. Then you can at least get 3-4 years out of an iteration if needed, but VR tech can keep rocketing forward at a mobile pace.
Like everything made for CV2 has to still support CV1. CV3 must support CV2, etc. Then you can at least get 3-4 years out of an iteration if needed, but VR tech can keep rocketing forward at a mobile pace.
Dreams-Visions
Member
2 years at the very most. I'd prefer annual if the R&D can make said pace reasonable.
The processing unit is more like a stereo receiver. HDMI ports have a limitation on bandwidth, and the PS4 needs to send video data to both the TV and the headset at the same time. Hence, the PS4 compresses the video stream that is sent out of the HDMI port. The breakout box decompresses the compressed video stream so that the 1 HDMI port on the PS4 can output to both the PSVR and the TV. It doesn't do anything with graphics or power or any of that.
GuitarAtomik
Member
I'm expecting 18 months to two years but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a year. I just want the next gen to have meaningful improvements so as long as that takes is fine with me as long as it's not refreshed for at least a year.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I expect 2-3 most likely for psvr
1-2 for oculus and vive.
1-2 for oculus and vive.
KatamariOnTheRocks
Member
That's what I'm hoping for, and even then I'd still be picking up each iteration.
Absolutely. There are so many things to iterate you're going to see multiple revisions in a short time span.
wanderingprostheyltite
Member
This is a bit too soon imo, though I can def see other hmd makers come into the fold for Vive due to lighthouse being open source. Palmer said somewhere between a phone and a console for release cycles. That's a bit easier to swallow for both consumers and manufacturers methinks.
Thank you for that explanation.
Too bad, it would be smart if they could modulate like that, but I guess is hard, or impossible, to do.
I'd be really upset if they didn't update the headsets as soon as new tech became available. There's no reason for them to stay stagnant for 2 to 3 years. If that's the case for Rift then I hope the VIVE doesn't try to hold itself back for with something odd like waiting for the sake of waiting.
As soon a new models come out older models will become super cheap. I'm glad PC hardware isn't like this. 16 TB SSDs made 1TB SSDs plummet and they're on their way down to sub $200 levels.
As soon a new models come out older models will become super cheap. I'm glad PC hardware isn't like this. 16 TB SSDs made 1TB SSDs plummet and they're on their way down to sub $200 levels.
Such a thing isn't impossible - you're basically asking for an external GPU and those exist - but the PS4 is not designed like that.
This space is going to get really crowded really fast and there are going to be lots of advances quickly. I think Oculus and HTC will update every 18-24 months but that doesn't mean other companies won't leapfrog them within the next year. I'm hoping for significant improvements yearly for the next five years minimum. The thing that will likely hold back advances will be GPU tech but we need to get to 8k+ resolution as fast as possible.
2160 per eye with foveated rendering could provide a nice visual boost without needing a massive GPU increase to go along with it.
viveks86
Member
I totally expect foveated rendering to happen in the next 12 months, given that there are working prototypes already.
But I may be overly optimistic.
I should have said a consumer ready version. I'm not sure how long it will take for the costs to come down for it to be incorporated into consumer level devices.
Because the Rift and Vive are on PC I don't really think that upgraded hardware will make older headsets obsolete. I mean because 4k monitors exist doesn't mean that 1440p is trash. I could see LG or HTC or someone making a higher res Vive compatible headset with their latest OLED tech or something like that when big Pascal hits.
There will be new and better headsets every single year going forward. Next year I have no doubt there will be some headsets out there that have some new feature that is unseen in current models. This is because the current players in VR will not be the only players. There are already VR headsets like the Starbreeze Infiniteye which will offer far superior FOVs. Will they be entirely better than the mainstream headsets? Probably not. But you will see tiny improvements every single year on the fringe of the VR Headset markets, just like you did with GPUs back in the 90's.
The big headsets from Sony, Valve, and Oculus will refresh much slower. But do not be surprised when you see improvements in other heasets shortly.
The big headsets from Sony, Valve, and Oculus will refresh much slower. But do not be surprised when you see improvements in other heasets shortly.
foolishoptimist
Member
I'm expecting 2 years PSVR game support on ps4.
I don't expect a PSVR revision until ps5 comes out. I'd expect Sony to make PS5 compatible with PSVR#1, so customers aren't expected to upgrade both a new system, and headset at the same time.
Hoping we have viable eye tracking/foveated rendering when the next revision comes out.
On Pc, i'm expecting updated headsets quite regularly, as the hardware is going to improve quickly. But the previous version will likely continue to be sold for reduced price.
I don't expect a PSVR revision until ps5 comes out. I'd expect Sony to make PS5 compatible with PSVR#1, so customers aren't expected to upgrade both a new system, and headset at the same time.
Hoping we have viable eye tracking/foveated rendering when the next revision comes out.
On Pc, i'm expecting updated headsets quite regularly, as the hardware is going to improve quickly. But the previous version will likely continue to be sold for reduced price.
viveks86
Member
Well, SMI thinks the cost at scale will be in single digits right now. But that's going to mean that every headset manufacturer is signing up for it right now, including lower end headset like gear vr.
Wishful thinking, I suppose.
I hope it happens. It would help to solve one of the biggest issues with VR adoption on the PC side which is the expense of a VR-spec computer.
I think the first gen will be extremely short because this is really new tech that'll mature quickly.
I think it'll be like smart phones where the iPhone shook shit up but it took 3 or 4 years to really settle in to a quality product and from there on out upgrades were more minor.
So I wouldn't be surprised by an oculus 2 within 1.5 years of this launch. A 3 a year or so after that and from there we'd have the real foundation for good quality and so a pretty steady progress until the next huge innovation (fits in regular size glasses, in contacts, etc etc).
I think it'll be like smart phones where the iPhone shook shit up but it took 3 or 4 years to really settle in to a quality product and from there on out upgrades were more minor.
So I wouldn't be surprised by an oculus 2 within 1.5 years of this launch. A 3 a year or so after that and from there we'd have the real foundation for good quality and so a pretty steady progress until the next huge innovation (fits in regular size glasses, in contacts, etc etc).
John Caboose
Member
These first few years it will be very rapid. Then as the tech matures more it will either slow down (or more or less go away as "a thing").
Spider_Jerusalem
Member
I'm still pretty sure VR will burn out pretty quickly in gaming. First generation will be huge especially in the first couple of years due to the novelty effect and the "wow factor", then it will be followed by an unsuccessful second generation and after that it will become a niche tech only used in science, industry and education.
~2 years minimum is what I am guessing from this first generation of HMDs, at least among the high end. Yearly refresh isn't happening, a display update alone won't be enough to justify increasing production costs again, and they need a fairly decent window to actually get the market established before disrupting it.
Edit - To be clear I'm referring specifically to the Vive and Rift when I say "high end"; if we include PSVR in that space I don't think they'll see an update until after their next console iteration.
Edit - To be clear I'm referring specifically to the Vive and Rift when I say "high end"; if we include PSVR in that space I don't think they'll see an update until after their next console iteration.
Auto-Reply
Member
Don't they need specific technical upgrades that would alter the experience significantly to define a VR headset gen as over?
I think when foveated rendering / eyeline tracking becomes viable, that's gen 2 of VR (if we call this now gen 1, that is)
I think when foveated rendering / eyeline tracking becomes viable, that's gen 2 of VR (if we call this now gen 1, that is)
viveks86
Member
Hmmmm. Given the next generation should be within 3 years, I wonder if they will launch side by side
I'm expecting new headsets every two years for the PC. PSVR will get a new headset every three. The more devices out there, the more back-end development will happen to cash in on the next big thing for entertainment and the more reason to iterate on existing tech.
Things will really take off when you'll have a capable VR experience with a built-in PC available at market as opposed to what we have now in a GearVR. That works now, but doesn't offer anything close to even what PSVR seems to be offering consumers.
Things will really take off when you'll have a capable VR experience with a built-in PC available at market as opposed to what we have now in a GearVR. That works now, but doesn't offer anything close to even what PSVR seems to be offering consumers.
qa_engineer
Member
With new headset iterations we won't see older headsets being phased out, at least not early on. We'll see improvements in tracking (e.g. eye tracking, full body/room tracking, and tracking of multiple users) improved optics, wireless connectivity etc. but the baseline will continue to be the older headsets IMO. I don't believe we'll see generational leaps in capabilities within the first 2-3 years.