Colin's argument to just wait 2 years and release the PS5 is in my opinion a bad one. 2 years in tech terms is an eternity. And Sony does not operate in a vacuum in this industry. Sony is now market leader in the console space. But, since when has it ever been a good idea to sit on your hands when on a high wave? How many brands have lost their market share because they were unwilling to change or adapt new idea's when on top? A lot.
So lets say that Sony waits 2 years for the release of PS5. Do we expect MS and Nintendo to do nothing in these 2 years? Not me. I think that between now and a half year we will hear about a new Nintendo console and new revision of the Xbox One. Is it a good idea for your market position to go from top dog to potentially one of the weakest on the market? That is a real posibility. PS4 is already lagging behind PC's and both AMD and Nvidia will probably ship new graphic cards this year that will make the gap between PC and PS4 even bigger. And with MS pushing xbox to PC you can get in serious trouble. So basically, everyone is moving forward but Sony should stay put and ride out a Ps4 that is getting older and older? Because why again? Its not a phone he said right? Is that really a reason to let this very real scenario happen to billion dollar company that is finall seeing its fortune turn around?
Also, you need to take into account VR. Sony wants to have a place in that market. But the gap between PS4 and PC is already pretty big and will get even bigger very fast. The gap between these two will make porting games from Occulus/Vive to Playstation VR a nightmare. It already is hard now, as the minimum PC spec now is a GTX970 and the Ps4 does not have that kind of horsepower. What will happen when the new graphics cards hit the market? Sony can't just say "you know what, we will dabble 2 years with VR. And we will get serious in 2 years with our new console". If you want a serious market presence in the VR space you cannot wait 2 years and let the competition get away from you. Where will PC be in two years? Compared to the Ps4? That risk is far too great. You want the next big VR hit ported to your console if you didn't make it yourself. Standing still is going back as the competition is moving forward. And "just wait", "its not a phone", "it has never been done before" is one of the worst arguments i have ever heard. Colin is a journalist and he should be able to take a step back and look at a much larger picture.
Here's an argument from a completely different angle. I posted this a few weeks back in a different thread. Lets jump back a few years. What if....What if in stead of the Xbox 360 Elite.... MS had made a Xbox 365? Same console, but 2x as powerful. And the Xbox One after that would be a more powerful version of that 365? Think REALLY hard about this one. What would that have meant for the Xbox brand and its userbase and market share? Would people have jumped ship to the Playstation eco-system? How would the market be now? I think we would have a whole different picture.
Guess what Sony is doing with this Ps4 NEO? In stead of resetting the market every 5 a 6 years and hope gamers like your new product you now get a roadmap where people are locked into your eco-system with a clear upgrade path and no need to look at the competition. You don't want the "lets evaluate my options" every 5-6 years. The risk is far too great, as MS has noticed.
Great post and analysis.
Im gonna add something iv been thinking about quite a lot latley. For some this will make sense, others will think i have smoken something really strong.
Think about the word
"attention".
Think about it again.
Think about that word in context to how your daily life is run.
I would say that pretty much every game developer/company, every smartphone app, every social media network, and yeah basically every freaking company is fighting for getting your attention.
They are fighting for getting a snip of
your time.
Every day of the year.
How many people do you not know that simply are slaves to their cellphones these days?. They simply don´t reflect or think about that their actual lives and
their time is run and dictated by a phone.
If you are a company in the tech space where things move really fast, does it make sense to become fat, greedy and lazy, just got success hit you?
Do you think your exsisting customers will be loyal to you?, if better products or services rise from your competitors, yet you are still stuck in your previous success having the greed, fat and lazy mindset.
Would i say that the success the PS2 had somewhat formed the strategy for the PS3?
YES
Would i say that the success the X360 had somewhat formed the strategy for the XB1?
YES
Would i say that the success the Wii had somewhat formed the strategy for the Wiiu?
YES
The risk is absolutely too big to wait 5-10 years in todays console space, regarding a significant hardware upgrade. Keeping your current userbase and customers locked in your eco-system, and having their attention is essential.
The PS4,5 make perfect sense in my book, and seems like a smart strategy, moving forward.