April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader

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Prodigal Son said:
If we didn't have the internet, Bernie wouldn't have ever stood a chance. The implication that mass-information's impact in these elections is minimal is silly.
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I'm back and forth on this. On the obvious hand, the internet's been his primary mode of communication, and it's the sole reason his camp is "enthusiastic" compared to Hillary's, even if the polling disagrees. But on the other hand, I think Sanders' campaign has fallen into the "old people shouts at cloud" problem with anything online; they think it's not "real" somehow.

There's a good John Oliver bit on sexual harassment online, and how most people view it. For some reason, we as a society haven't gotten to the point where a threat in an email is treated the same as one stuffed in your mailbox, even though it's clearly the same thing.

This has been a bit of a problem with the Sanders' camp and their more negative supporters. Listen, a TON of Hillary supporters seem to have some pretty shared experiences with racist or sexist Sanders people online. That's usually dismissed as "It's just some random poster, who cares." But that's hand-waving the Internet like it's not real. Take one of the random inflammatory memes (sexist at Hillary, racist to her Southern support, etc..) and imagine that instead of being a random comment on Reddit, it's plastered on a sign that someone is holding up high on a street in NY. The upvotes? Those are people around the sign-holder and are cheering. They may not have their own signs, but they're pretty clearly cool with them.

That would make some pretty bad headlines. But that's what's happening! Those online "street corners" are where the Sanders camp has made their movement. (And I do think that's largely been effective!) But they haven't done enough to keep those kinds of people out. I think Bernie made a comment telling his people to settle down in like February, but that was when he was still pushing issues and not attacking. He hasn't backed his people down since then, but it seems obvious that if these things were being waved around and chanted at his rallies, he's stop it, right?

In general, we aren't quite to the point where a completely effective online campaign will work, and I do think the pros outweigh the cons. But we've got to stop with statements like, "It's just some Reddit comment" because enough of those add up to a loud rally on a street corner, so to speak. That backfires. (And I think polling on the recent tone of the Sanders campaign showed that his favorables have gone down a noticeable bit since the beginning of April.)
 
I guarantee, if Bernie makes it to the GE, you are going to see so many hammers and sickles on TV ads, your head will spin. It will be GOP priority 1 to saddle him with Marxist/Lenninist ideology and imagery.

And people will eat it up.
 
When Bernie is called a socialist, I'm sure some people do Google it. Then they find "socialism is a range of economic and social systems characterised by social ownership and democratic control of the means of production, as well as the political ideologies, theories, and movements that aim at their establishment." Then, after spending a few seconds trying to parse that, they quickly scan through the Wikipedia page catching pictures of a bunch of people they've never heard of, plus Gorbachev and Karl Marx.

After that, they'll probably just rationalize feeling the same way about socialism as they did before they Googled it.
 
djplaeskool said:
I guarantee, if Bernie makes it to the GE, you are going to see so many hammers and sickles on TV ads, your head will spin. It will be GOP priority 1 to saddle him with Marxist/Lenninist ideology.

And people will eat it up.
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No one under 35 or even 40 is going to care about that shit. edit- and the right has diluted the impact of the word socialist by associating it with center-left politicians like Hillary and Obama.
 
EskimoJoe said:
When Bernie is called a socialist, I'm sure some people do Google it. Then they find "socialism is a range of economic and social systems characterised by social ownership and democratic control of the means of production, as well as the political ideologies, theories, and movements that aim at their establishment." Then, after spending a few seconds trying to parse that, they quickly scan through the Wikipedia page catching pictures of a bunch of people they've never heard of, plus Gorbachev and Karl Marx.

After that, they'll probably just rationalize feeling the same way about socialism as they did before they Googled it.
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I feel like our primary results thus far disagree. People aren't stupid. Democratic socialism (as he constantly specifies) doesn't yield anything vague. "What is democratic socialism" gets me some pretty specific results.
EDIT: Brb yall. I gotta law final to destroy.
 
Prodigal Son said:
I feel like our primary results thus far disagree. People aren't stupid. Democratic socialism (as he constantly specifies) doesn't yield anything vague. "What is democratic socialism" gets me some pretty specific results.
EDIT: Brb yall. I gotta law final to destroy.
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Smash that final like Bernie will smash capitalism!
 
Prodigal Son said:
I feel like our primary results thus far disagree. People aren't stupid. Democratic socialism (as he constantly specifies) doesn't yield anything vague. "What is democratic socialism" gets me some pretty specific results.
EDIT: Brb yall. I gotta law final to destroy.
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I guess I just have a hard time buying it considering Bernie Sanders himself, the Democratic socialist by his own admission, isn't running on a democratic socialist platform, but rather one of social democracy. At least, I don't think he's mentioned anything on the stump about worker control of the means of production.

Anyway, good luck on your final!
 
I think Bernie would probably do fine in the general TBH. He'd be running against Donald Trump for Christ's sake. In fact, he'll probably be running against a split GOP party with two candidates if things keep going like they are.

I just think the man would be an awful president.
 
I love that Bernie is still campaigning, but at this point the only hope for him is if the FBI choose to indict Clinton and while I hope this happens, I'm not expecting anything to come from it except for some finger waving.
 
Prodigal Son said:
Pretty closed minded perspective, in my view.

Like 6% of America trusts the media.

Yet something close to 70% of America uses a smartphone last time I checked. More than ever, people conduct research.
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The trouble with this is that most Americans have no concept of how to conduct research of any quality. Seeking information is an excellent instinct, but going by the utter dogshit sources I see sited by people here and across the internet to prop up their hollow ass rhetoric-laden quasi conspiracy theories, I don't think this is inherently any better for the knowledge base of the average voter than when they felt like they could trust the news. Maybe even a little bit worse.

There will always be some idiot online willing to write a "think piece" that feeds into any person's confirmation bias. There are cottage industries feeding off the desire for echo chambers all the way across the political spectrum. So, I just want to make it clear that us younger generations getting our political understanding from the internet doesn't make us any less stupid than dad or grandpa who developed his opinions based on what he heard on TV. It just makes us a different kind of stupid more often than not. It's as hard or harder than ever to be self-reflective and admit that your stance may be wrong.
 
marrec said:
How long?

Obama's been THE boogeyman since 2008. Even in 2008 she was seen as the more moderate choice between the two of them.

Since then she's been painted as a conniving manipulator rather than any kind of uber-liberal.

I mean, it's not a big deal, but if you're going to continue to push this theory I'm really going to need the see some receipts lol

Yes, she's obviously a liberal and to the left of the majority of the right, but I don't think I've ever heard the narrative that she's some extreme kooky liberal.
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It's been 'Hillary Clinton and the leftist agenda' for at least as long as she's been more of a Democratic leader, probably when she ran for office. Of course that honor moved to Obama when it became apparent that he would get the nomination.
 
What are we even arguing anymore?

Anyway, on some actual primary news. Hillary's gonna be in Philly today along with Eric Holder giving a talk on gun violence. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/big_tent/Hillary-to-discuss-gun-violence-in-Phila.html

Hillary Clinton will highlight the problem of gun violence in Philadelphia Wednesday in a discussion with former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder and two “Mothers of the Movement” who lost children at the hands of the police.

Geneva Reed-Veal’s daughter, Sandra Bland, died in police custody in Texas when she was arrested after a questionable traffic stop. Maria Hamilton’s son, Dontre, had schizophrenia and was shot 14 times and killed by a Milwaukee police officer in a city park. Dontre was unarmed but had grabbed the officer’s baton.

The event is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. at St. Paul’s Baptist Church, 1000 Wallace Street. Attendance is by invitation only, however, because of limited space, according to the Clinton campaign.

At 6:30 p.m., Clinton is scheduled to hold a rally at The Fillmore in Fishtown, 29 E. Allen St. It is open to the public.
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Bernie's in Pittsburgh today and holding townhalls on Thursday.
http://www.ydr.com/story/news/polit...d-trump-coming-pa-farm-show-complex/83277584/
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders was headed to Pittsburgh for a forum with labor leaders. On Thursday, he plans two town halls, the first in Scranton and the second in Reading.

Hillary Clinton was headed to Philadelphia late in the day Wednesday, while Bill Clinton is campaigning for his wife in Johnstown and Pittsburgh...

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump will make a campaign stop in Harrisburg this week, according to his campaign website.

Trump's schedule listing says he will appear at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex, 2300 N. Cameron St., at 7 p.m. Thursday.
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Brinbe said:
What are we even arguing anymore?

Anyway, on some actual primary news. Hillary's gonna be in Philly today along with Eric Holder giving a talk on gun violence. http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/big_tent/Hillary-to-discuss-gun-violence-in-Phila.html
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Yeah, Holder is highly esteemed. No way Bernie has a chance in NJ or PA.

Who's he gonna bring? Lil Wayne?
gutter_trash said:
will be interesting to see if Sanders goes into Rural areas and pander to ''gun enthusiasts'' to win the farmer votes
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Update says Scranton. He needs to carpet Montgomery county, bucks, Chester
 
Also, a good piece on the most important unbound delegates in the country.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...legates_could_decide_donald_trump_s_fate.html

Besides the Indiana primary, these folks will be what potentially separates Trump from the presidency. This might be the most interesting story in the entire primary if Trump's stopped just short of reaching the finish line.

The most important figures in the Republican presidential primary right now are not New York voters. They’re also not the wave of delegates who, in state after state, have made it clear that they’ll support Sen. Ted Cruz if they become unbound on later ballots at July’s Republican National Convention. The most important figures right now are the delegates who will be unbound on the first ballot of the convention and will effectively hold veto power over whether Donald Trump is the party’s nominee.

And there will be 54 of these delegates from Pennsylvania alone, making the Keystone State’s delegation some of the most critical individuals at the convention.

Given the tightness of the presidential race, Pennsylvania’s quirky Republican primary system affords the state’s delegates the most nominating leverage they’ve had in 40 years. Republican voters on April 26 will choose a presidential candidate to first determine the winner of the 17 bound, statewide delegates. But the 54 delegates allocated by congressional district will be voted on separately—without any candidate preference listed next to delegate candidates’ names. This means the district delegate winners will be true wild cards—not bound to the candidate preferences of the men and women in their state or districts—and the targets of serious persuasion efforts from the campaigns of Trump, Cruz, and John Kasich through the first ballot vote in Cleveland.

The good news for Trump is that he’s comfortably leading in Pennsylvania, and many of the delegate candidates are saying they’ll vote in Cleveland according to their districts’ wishes. In a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review survey of the 162 delegate candidates on the ballot (to which 127 have responded), 67 have said that they’ll vote on the first ballot for whoever wins their districts. If Trump trounces his competition in the state, he’ll likely win the lion’s share of its 18 congressional districts and the support of many of these unbound delegates promising to obey the will of the voters.
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And Trump may well need these delegates to push past 1237. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...se_unbound_pa_delegates_to_put_over_1237.html

We're going with conservative estimates, [After New York, Trump] would be sitting with 841 [delegates], Delaware looks good, Rhode Island and Connecticut and let's say he gets 100 out of those, sitting at 941 the end of the month [of April].

Indiana the start of May, let's say he loses Indiana, only gets three districts, that would put him at 950. West Virginia looks really good for him. Nebraska, winner take all, doesn't look good. Decent nights in Washington and Oregon, you put those together, he could be sitting at 1016 conservatively by the end of the month.

Takes you to the last day [June 7]. What looks good for him the last day, winner take all New Jersey. New Mexico is proportional. And California -- three for every congressional district. If you got 120 out of California, a rough estimate, 12 out of New Mexico and 51 out of New Jersey, he'd be sitting at 1199, you say he's short. We have the open convention. Here's the thing.

17 [pledged delegates] in Pennsylvania, that real number is 71. There are 54 unbound delegates in Pennsylvania. Right now, the majority of candidates running to be unbound delegates in Pennsylvania are saying publicly on the record they will go with whatever candidate wins their state. Donald Trump is leading Pennsylvania by more than 20 points right now. He could easily get the lion's share of those and that could put him over 1237, a win in Indiana could put him over 1237. A better showing in the northeast could get hi closer, there are many pathways.
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Cruz on his end is going all-in on Indiana
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434265/ted-cruz-indiana-primary-strategy
Ted Cruz’s team knew that Donald Trump would run away with his native New York Tuesday. And they expect he’ll win the lion’s share of delegates at stake next week when a slate of northeastern states votes. So they’ve spent the last two weeks looking ahead, quietly laying the groundwork for a kitchen-sink campaign in a state they can’t afford to let Trump win: Indiana. The Hoosier State doesn’t vote until May 3, and Cruz certainly isn’t ignoring the contests in between. He spent time this week in both Maryland and Pennsylvania, the two states his campaign is confident will yield them a respectable number of delegates next Tuesday. But Indiana has emerged as Cruz’s top priority. It awards 57 delegates, and Cruz’s brain trust believes a clean sweep there — or close to it — would erase Trump’s already-thin margin for error and effectively end his hopes of entering Cleveland with 1,237 delegates. Accordingly, they have been preparing to throw everything they have at the state, in an effort to reapply the formula that worked to such devastating effect in Wisconsin.
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djplaeskool said:
I guarantee, if Bernie makes it to the GE, you are going to see so many hammers and sickles on TV ads, your head will spin. It will be GOP priority 1 to saddle him with Marxist/Lenninist ideology and imagery.

And people will eat it up.
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Which is precisely why they want to see him as the nominee.

He's going to have to explain the nuance of 'democratic socialism' every 5 minutes, and frankly I don't think the American public has the attention span necessary to understand the nuance.
 
Maxim726X said:
Which is precisely why they want to see him as the nominee.

He's going to have to explain the nuance of 'democratic socialism' every 5 minutes, and frankly I don't think the American public has the attention span necessary to understand the nuance.
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Florida would go Republican if Bernie is the nom
 
Maxim726X said:
Which is precisely why they want to see him as the nominee.

He's going to have to explain the nuance of 'democratic socialism' every 5 minutes, and frankly I don't think the American public has the attention span necessary to understand the nuance.
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The attention span exists, they'd just have to care about politics in the same way they care about whatever else is held as important in their lives. Most of the problem with nuance in these kinds of things is most people, when they finally get done with work and taking care of chores and whatever other maintenance their life absolutely demands, they have a sliver of time at most to dedicate to things like this. It feels like you should be able to just link someone the most complete dissertation on Democratic Socialism that can be composed and have them just understand it. In truth, you have like five seconds of an elevator pitch before most of these people have to check out to change a dirty diaper or help a friend move or catch their favorite TV show. If you're not the Secretary of Explaining Stuff, you're going to just sound like a jackass to those people. I'd love to see more people value politics in a more profound way since it affects how they live their lives profoundly, but it is kind of unreasonable to expect it of other people. So the end result would be the same for Sanders, unfortunately.
 
Jeff Merkley was on TV spinning for Sanders and all he could come up with was Obama lost New York 8 years ago also. Conveniently forgetting New York voted on February 5th in 2008.
 
woolley said:
Obama didn't even campaign in New York, Sanders outspent Clinton and still lost.
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That's a big thing to watch from his campaign. He threw a ton of stuff at the wall for NY, and the margins were still almost the realistic worst-case scenario. No way he pulls off PA, CT, or MD next week, so how much does he blow there? It's all proportional, so he can't just ignore them.
 
84txGkv.jpg
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Still find the Bernie money machine fascinating. They have an unwavering fundraising apparatus, and they take that money and just... chuck it haphazardly at states. I can't remember a state he DIDN'T outspend Clinton in since, what, Super Tuesday? And usually by massive margins, too; 2:1 is on the low end for them.

Still remember how much money he threw at SC leading right up to getting buried. I know some of you will hate the comparison, but that right there is Jeb! levels of lack of return on investment.
 
Perhaps the Sanders camp just isn't using the money they are spending effectively?

Also, apparently Bernie lost the Jewish vote in NY by a significant margin.

"Many Orthodox Jewish Democrats were previously indifferent or even negative towards Hillary Clinton. After weeks that saw misinformed anti-Israel comments by Sanders, the hiring of a radical leftist as the campaign’s Jewish outreach director, and the doubling down on Israel at the debate in Brooklyn, we felt that it was imperative‎ to go out and inform voters that a vote for Bernie Sanders was a dangerous mistake,” said Chaskel Bennett, a community activist and board member of Agudath Israel of America. “With the help of a few activists, our local elected officials, and the non-stop criticism of Israel by Sanders himself, our ‘Stop the Bern’ effort did its part to send Sanders away with a resounding defeat.”
read more: http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/u-s-election-2016/1.715455
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This is why politicians don't criticize Israel during election season. This is also why they play nice at AIPAC. Bernie came into this as the first Jewish candidate with a realistic shot at the presidency in history (I might be wrong on this), but his comments cost him big time. I actually agree with Sanders on this issue, but I'm not naive enough to criticize Hillary for appearing pro-Israel right before a major primary.
 
Sanders wasn't appealing at all to Jewsh NYC voters, I'm not entirely sure why he took that moment to make his stand to push his criticisms on Israel. Probably wrote off the Jewish vote by that point but all the same it's ridiculous to basically hand your opponent an entire demographic.
 
Goodstyle said:
Perhaps the Sanders camp just isn't using the money they are spending effectively?

Also, apparently Bernie lost the Jewish vote in NY by a significant margin.

This is why politicians don't criticize about Israel during election season. This is also why they play nice at AIPAC. Bernie came into this as the first Jewish candidate with a realistic shot at the presidency in history (I might be wrong on this), but his comments cost him big time. I actually agree with Sanders on this issue, but I'm not naive enough to criticize Hillary for appearing pro-Israel right before a major primary.
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It might have been ok to do it, but not before New York and particularly not in Brooklyn. If you were to criticize Israel you'd have to do it after NY.
 
Not every Jewish person has Israel at the top of their priority list, being pro-Israel is more important to securing the Evangelical vote

Sure, it'll help sway some Jewish people but there are nowhere near enough Ultra-Orthodox Jews to make a big difference for the Democrats
 
Kite said:
wtf Sanders outspent Clinton + all the republicans combined in NY according to that chart lol
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It's accurate too. No one needed NY as badly as he did, at least among people who had anything remotely resembling a chance. The GOP race was basically on lock, and Sanders campaign needed a good win here to matter.
 
dramatis said:
It might have been ok to do it, but not before New York and particularly not in Brooklyn. If you were to criticize Israel you'd have to do it after NY.
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We're still no where near the point where you can say the stuff Bernie said out loud during an election. You can act that way after you win, but you never actually say it.
 
B-Dubs said:
We're still no where near the point where you can say the stuff Bernie said out loud during an election. You can act that way after you win, but you never actually say it.
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It didn't help that he overestimated the amount of deaths by about 5x, and that's going off the UN/Palestine numbers.

His approach to Israel was simply amateur. I think now, more than ever, the public is open to more criticism of Israel, but you don't go about it that way.
 
WonkyPanda said:
It didn't help that he overestimated the amount of deaths by about 5x, and that's going off the UN/Palestine numbers.

His approach to Israel was simply amateur. I think now, more than ever, the public is open to more criticism of Israel, but you don't go about it that way.
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Also this. Though, any criticism of Israel still needs to be sandwiched by "I totally love Israel guys."
 
Retro4ever said:
A Sanders aid on CNN just said they are fighting for delegates until the convention.
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His strategy of suing the DNC, and casting dispersion on their candidate is a fantastic strategy for securing supers.

Honestly, I'm amazed he's been in politics for this long. Maybe he's senile?
 
BigJonsson said:
Not every Jewish person has Israel at the top of their priority list, being pro-Israel is more important to securing the Evangelical vote

Sure, it'll help sway some Jewish people but there are nowhere near enough Ultra-Orthodox Jews to make a big difference for the Democrats
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Jewish citizens in NYC made up like 10% of the electorate, you're right not every single one was worrying about Israel, but considering the conference that just occurred and the fact that Hillary smashed Sanders in the 10th congressional district 66-34 (largest Jewish district by demographics in the nation). The man did himself no favors pushing the topic along with the fuckery that occurred with his staff.
 
Kangi said:
Still find the Bernie money machine fascinating. They have an unwavering fundraising apparatus, and they take that money and just... chuck it haphazardly at states. I can't remember a state he DIDN'T outspend Clinton in since, what, Super Tuesday? And usually by massive margins, too; 2:1 is on the low end for them.

Still remember how much money he threw at SC leading right up to getting buried. I know some of you will hate the comparison, but that right there is Jeb! levels of lack of return on investment.
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That's one aspect of the Bernie campaign that's bothered me. The delegate math is not working in his favor yet his campaign continues to turn around to his supporters and asks for donations. I mean, people are able to spend and donate their money as they see fit but it just strikes me as a little disingenuous and misleading.

Unless he's racking up a lot of campaign debt? I mean, he must be if he's outspending Clinton and still losing.
 
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