I know it 99% isn't happening but if the Democrats had a brokered convention we could be talking about two weeks of the circus being in town come July. Obviously the Dems won't be as nuts as the GOP but it would still be good theater.
April U.S. Primaries |OT| Vote in 20 Turns for World Leader
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I know it 99% isn't happening but if the Democrats had a brokered convention we could be talking about two weeks of the circus being in town come July. Obviously the Dems won't be as nuts as the GOP but it would still be good theater.
BigJonsson
Member
And of that 10% how many consider themselves Orthodox and how many would have voted for Sanders had he not made those Israel comments? I agree that he did himself no favours but I don't think it would make much difference aside from a few areas
I suppose it's possible, but superdelegates exist mainly to prevent this from happening.
And it's not likely that they won't coalesce around someone who actually has a history with the party.
I just don't see the end game. If this was his plan, why would he go about it the way that he has?
My best guess is that he has too many people around him who truly believe that he can win the nomination.
Crimson_Fate
Member
I personally don't see all the doom an gloom for Bernie coming out of NY, the delegates were divided up, 139 to 106 . I could see if it was winner take all but even if he won the difference would be close to the same. There is no reason for him to get out yet.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Every candidate says this, whether internally they are considering it, or not.
If he has money like everyone says he does then he is sticking around until June when the primary ends. What is another six weeks for him anyway?
dapperbandit
Banned
Find it incredible how Trump was able to spend so little and hoover up all those delegates in NY. Like, I might have the maths off, but it looks like he spent essentially $753 per delegate.
The problem is that all states in the Democratic Primary are proportional like that. Even if he gets to a state that's favorable to him, he's going to be picking up +10 or +15 net delegates in comparison to whatever Clinton gets there. He's nearly 250 pledged delegates behind her at this point. Realistically, he's got to come at least close to tying Clinton in pledged delegates to have a leg to stand on when trying to convince Supers to break from her at the convention. His performance from here on out has to be like miracle campaign levels of good to remain viable. We're talking better than Obama levels of good. We're talking no historical precedent levels of good. Could he do that? I mean, maybe. Historical precedents are set by people breaking previous ones, has to happen sometimes.
Based strictly on his performance so far that is not going to happen.
His competition was a nobody-turned-human garbage disposal and a slimy troll that personally insulted the entirety of New York.
Surprised he threw a single cent at the state. Though I suppose the state was too important to risk not trying for at all.
ultratruman
Banned
this is my favourite gaf meme
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I posted this further up, but the deficit isn't quite as bad as how much NY was worth total. There's another 247 delegates off the table, so that much less to fight over. There are only 3 contests left with 100+ delegates (and Hillary's favored heavily to win them).
And for reference 8 of the upcoming contests are worth total what Hillary won over Bernie in NY. There just aren't any delegates left for him to grab. He could win 100-0 in those 8 contests, and he's still be losing by about 80 delegates. Proportional results aren't easy to overcome.
ultratruman
Banned
cenk uygur seems to be more unhinged than usual lately, or maybe he's always been like this?
Oh what's the latest?
I love watching TYT meltdowns. Makes my day that much more enjoyable.
Mmmhmm. I said the same thing during the debate.
There are not an infinite number of states. They are running out. And Hillary is hugely favored in many of the big ones coming up. As she beats him by 10% here and 15% there, his required number in order to win goes from needing 59% wins in every remaining state to 63% to 68% to 70+%.
In short, its not happening. He is out of time.
ultratruman
Banned
he got kicked off a plane at LAX for shouting at and filming airline staff.
This makes me so mad, and I got in a debate with my husband about it. He contends that Clinton is winning because all of the banks are spending for her (???) and even after I said Sanders outspent her in New York and still lost by double digits, he still said she won because she has the most money. Blaaah. As for Cenk, he's just being willfully blind over the reality that Democratic primary voters don't want Sanders.
Aaron Strife
Banned
We're going to reach a point where people will argue Bernie can win 80% of the vote in California, if he doesn't drop out before then.
Are you trying to argue that Bernie won't do better in Cali than he did in Vermont?
There aren't a lot of minorities in California, are there?
WonkyPanda
Member
Didn't Bernie lose Latinos by about 40 in NY? What hope is there for CA?
The point is, Hillary has more establishment and mainstream media support, so naturally her campaign wouldn't even have to spend as much to garner the same sort of coverage or positive influence. It's not far fetched to imagine that Bernie's campaign would have to spend more just to counter balance that, not that I think it will change the outcome mind.
None.
Don't tell reddit that.
Bernie got tons of media coverage during the campaign, even when he was still polling terribly. How many media stories did we get about him replicating Trump by going up in the polls even though he was still losing by 20 points?
BlastProcessing
Member
Actually, the opposite is true. He doesn't have a chance because of the proportional system. If it was winner take all he would have a chance at a comeback. In a proportional system it's incredibly hard to cover ground quickly.
It's sort of like Olympic Walking, the commentators will talk about how someone has a commanding lead and you just watch and think "Just run stupid. You could catch her in like a second if you just ran!".
I don't think he needs to leave, but I do think he should focus on a positive message. That is his role now, to use his position to push forward good things. Spending more money than all other candidates combined (including the GOP) and having the majority of those ads be direct attack ads on Clinton is not what he should be doing.
If he is going to act selfish and shortsighted, then he needs to show himself out. He is a strong enough politician to be able to energize his base without attacking Clinton.
Fenderputty
Banned
Some here would say it's "slim"
Aaron Strife
Banned
None. He'd probably lose it about 55-45.
People just assume it's a big liberal state that alone will give Bernie the win.
uncelestial
Member
I'm a huge Sanders supporter and have major criticisms against the Clinton "progressive legacy."
...But even I can see that continuing the Sanders campaign at this point is doing more harm than good. The math has gone from improbable to impossible, and meanwhile, as this thread shows, the bad will is getting out of hand. Hillary supporters and Sanders supporters alike -- both sides are getting into the kind of angry, personal rhetoric against each other that is going to be hard to heal later on, and both are starting to believe things about the candidates that are unfair, not necessarily true, and difficult to forget.
I think the Sanders campaign has a lot to be proud of; putting ideas like universal health care, free tuition, corporate political donations, and breaking up the banks into the mainstream political discussion has forced Hillary to consider what the leftist caucus believes in and wants and raised issue awareness.
But, while Hillary waited until June to drop out in 2008, she was only 1/3rd as behind as Sanders is now.
I want to be friends with my fellow Democrats. It's really sad seeing the threads on here where people have so much in common -- liberal video game enthusiasts
who are politically active -- going at each others' throats. And that's here! A well-moderated community. On places where it's open season, like real-life discussions, YouTube channels, Medium, Tumblr, Reddit, Twitter, Facebook -- it's gotten downright fucking toxic.
I would be pretty relieved to hear Sanders concede, as much as I want his ideas represented in the White House. I'm tired of the infighting and worried that our already-low turnout is going to combine with the spreading of Voter ID laws and calcified hatred towards Hillary that is fomenting on the left to fare poorly against an energized Trump campaign in the general election. We can't lose this one -- it's for the Supreme Court.
Myself, I'm going to way tone it down with my Sanders debating. It's just counterproductive at this point. I don't think the GE is going to be the cakewalk that Democrats want it to be with Hillary's negatives. She has a 38.7% general favorability rating and she hasn't even had to fight against a well-funded GOP campaign yet.
It's time to unite and put this primary behind us. It's getting uglier by the day.
...But even I can see that continuing the Sanders campaign at this point is doing more harm than good. The math has gone from improbable to impossible, and meanwhile, as this thread shows, the bad will is getting out of hand. Hillary supporters and Sanders supporters alike -- both sides are getting into the kind of angry, personal rhetoric against each other that is going to be hard to heal later on, and both are starting to believe things about the candidates that are unfair, not necessarily true, and difficult to forget.
I think the Sanders campaign has a lot to be proud of; putting ideas like universal health care, free tuition, corporate political donations, and breaking up the banks into the mainstream political discussion has forced Hillary to consider what the leftist caucus believes in and wants and raised issue awareness.
But, while Hillary waited until June to drop out in 2008, she was only 1/3rd as behind as Sanders is now.
I want to be friends with my fellow Democrats. It's really sad seeing the threads on here where people have so much in common -- liberal video game enthusiasts
who have outgrown the gaming side
I would be pretty relieved to hear Sanders concede, as much as I want his ideas represented in the White House. I'm tired of the infighting and worried that our already-low turnout is going to combine with the spreading of Voter ID laws and calcified hatred towards Hillary that is fomenting on the left to fare poorly against an energized Trump campaign in the general election. We can't lose this one -- it's for the Supreme Court.
Myself, I'm going to way tone it down with my Sanders debating. It's just counterproductive at this point. I don't think the GE is going to be the cakewalk that Democrats want it to be with Hillary's negatives. She has a 38.7% general favorability rating and she hasn't even had to fight against a well-funded GOP campaign yet.
It's time to unite and put this primary behind us. It's getting uglier by the day.
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
California liberal going into the primary. Once Hillary wins, California will be deemed not liberal enough.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Pretty sure I already saw something like that on Reddit.
California > Southern California > South > SOUTHERN STATE
Wake up sheeple.
Also he's not going to win CA by any massive margin, it's just not in the cards.
Most of the math I see spouted online are pipedreams of hitting nearly 70% in everything to come.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I thought he was going to drop out after Florida haha.
TheOfficeMut
Unconfirmed Member
Seductivpancakes
Member
So I'm not an expert in politics, so let me ask you guys, if Bernie decides to run as a Green Party due to Hillary taking the primary, what are the chances of Democratic voters splitting their votes or how badly do you think the split will be?
BlastProcessing
Member
The green party already has a candidate in Jill Stein and I'm pretty sure that if he wanted to run independent, he would've had to file the paperwork for it by now. I'm not 100% on that though, so take that last bit with a pinch of salt.
If he could do it, the split would be disastrous for American liberals everywhere. Part of the reason he absolutely will not do it.
Fenderputty
Banned
Her favorability is so low because she's had to deal with 20 years of well funded GOP campaign crap.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Probably enough to potentially sway a few swing states.
He won't though. Not only does he not necessarily agree with the Green Party, but he said he isn't running as a third party.
Jill Stein also likely won't appreciate being kicked off the ballot for a flavor of the month.
The split will be greater than Ralph Nadar I think.
Some people have a fantasy where Sanders and Trump will run third-party. This will put Clinton-Sanders-Cruz-Trump against each other, splitting up the vote entirely and Sanders will get JUST enough to win the election.
Except that isn't how the electoral college works lol
Seductivpancakes
Member
Thanks. I was just curious since I saw someone mentioned that on my social feed.
googleplex
Member
Hell, Millennial have proven though out his primary that they aren't able to form competent or accurate opinions based on all of the "free information" available to them. Just because they all walk about with smart phones in the pockets connected to the sum total of human knowledge. Have not made them high information voters.
All of the Hillary is a bought and paid for, closet conservative that will start wars and kill babies, bullshit coming from Sander supporters has proven that.
Even if it was, if everyone voted the way they did during the primary so far, Clinton would still be winning.
Short of divine intervention, I doubt there is a timeline where she isn't the next president, for better or for worse.
Like I kind of said before, if you're high information, but a good portion of that is disinformation, are you really high info at all?
I don't think anything is in the bag come November. She hasn't faced too much negative campaigning from the GOP, which won't be tough. Plus there is the FBI thing. We will see but I don't think anything is certain with the general election.
balladofwindfishes
Member
hydragonwarrior
Member
You're only talking Democrats. Repubs are a different beast entirely
I'm talking about this election cycle.
I was being more than a little hyperbolic, but the FBI thing is a whole bunch of nothing and she's been up against negative campaigning from the GOP since the mid ninties. If she sinks, it'll be for a reason none of us have thought of at this point (that will seem supremely obvious in retrospect, lol.)
The point is, they've been going at her with all barrels blazing for decades and they haven't sunk her yet. What could they possibly have left in the tank they haven't already used?
If you ignore the last 20 years, then yea, not too much negative campaigning.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The Benghazi hearings? The email "scandal?" Asking "how will you defeat Hillary" at Republican debates being a common question?
She's pretty much at the lowest possible support she will get this election, it can only go up from here. And it will go up.
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