May U.S. Primaries |OT| Glory to America

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Fun fact: in Washington we're going to be voting for Democrats, too!

But wait, you say. Didn't the Democrats already have a caucus in Washington?

Yes, I respond. So did the Republicans! But the Democratic caucus counted and the Republican caucus did not while the Republican vote will count and the Democratic vote will not.

It's a fun system that guarantees maximum confusion. Especially for Democrats, given how everyone in this state votes by mail and tend to assume that's how the primary will work.
 
In the Democratic presidential race in California, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 57 percent to 38 percent.


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In the Democratic presidential race in California, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 57 percent to 38 percent.


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If that's how California goes, will Hillary even need the superdelegates?

Fun fact: in Washington we're going to be voting for Democrats, too!

But wait, you say. Didn't the Democrats already have a caucus in Washington?

Yes, I respond. So did the Republicans! But the Democratic caucus counted and the Republican caucus did not while the Republican vote will count and the Democratic vote will not.

It's a fun system that guarantees maximum confusion. Especially for Democrats, given how everyone in this state votes by mail and tend to assume that's how the primary will work.

I can't make heads or tails of what you're trying to say here.
 

Heidi Cruz (his wife) calls husband 'an immigrant,' campaign staff quickly retracts


“Ted is an immigrant,” she said. “He is Hispanic. He can unify this party."

The comment was quickly corrected by Cruz’s campaign staff, which said that his wife meant to say that the Texas senator is the son of an immigrant, but it was not quick enough to pass by Trump’s ears.
But... he is an immigrant. They must be well aware of how gullible his base is.
 
I can't make heads or tails of what you're trying to say here.

Washington state has a caucus for Republicans and a ballot vote for Democrats, and a caucus for Democrats and a ballot vote for Republicans. If you want to vote for a Republican, vote in the ballot vote and don't do the caucus and if you want to vote for a Democrat, vote in the caucus and don't bother with the ballot vote. The Republican caucus doesn't really count and the Democratic ballot vote doesn't really count because the Republican caucus doesn't actually mean anything and the Democratic ballot vote doesn't actually mean anything but the Republican ballot vote does and the Democratic caucus does.

Easy peasy! Now go forth and select the next leader of the free world.
 
Indiana resident here

Trump is going to trounce Cruz tomorrow. Way more people in this state will care about when Trump talks about jobs and trade than will care that Cruz is religious, even though there are a lot of the religious right in the state.

Clinton probably going to win but with being an open primary a very high turnout will push Sanders over the top. Basically the college towns versus the other big urban areas this time around. Hillary won here in May 2008 but Obama came back and carried the state in November.
 
The Republican nominee will be decided tomorrow in Indiana

Trump has 996 delegates and has to have 1237 to avoid a scene at the convention

He has an insurmountable lead in NJ (57 delegates) and California (172)

If Trump wins Indiana then all the media hype about a brokered convention will be totally unfounded
 
The Republican nominee will be decided tomorrow in Indiana

Trump has 996 delegates and has to have 1237 to avoid a scene at the convention

He has an insurmountable lead in NJ (57 delegates) and California (172)

If Trump wins Indiana then all the media hype about a brokered convention will be totally unfounded
What a surprise.

You know I don't think even Romney wrapped up the nomination in terms of delegate count until very late in the process so this is actually pretty much par for the course.
 
Kasich still being in the race is a bit redundent now surely? In which I mean, if he dropped it's not like it would really change the outcome in any remaining states? They all seem pretty clear cut after Indiana with which way they're leaning. Cruz; Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Trump; Cali, New Jersey, West Virginia. New Mexico, Washington and Oregon being 50/50 anyway but proportional and not very delegate rich.
 
Clinton probably going to win but with being an open primary a very high turnout will push Sanders over the top. Basically the college towns versus the other big urban areas this time around. Hillary won here in May 2008 but Obama came back and carried the state in November.

Clinton has won a ton of open primaries......they don't really put her at that much of a disadvantage.

Sanders supporters just like to complain about how undemocratic closed primaries are when when Sanders loses them, but he's probably lost just as many open ones.
 
Given that he's not being ahead in any polling, I'm suspicious. Even with it being open.

I'd say same about Rhode Island, but there was that poll with him being 4 ahead. Still he won by like 12 points.

So yeah, if she does win, I'll be pleasently surprised.

But, she took Illinois, Ohio and Missouri, they were all open primaries, so I have a little faith.

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 34m34 minutes ago

Final benchmarks - Trump 44% Cruz 38% Kasich 15%. Clinton 51% - Sanders 48%. Site will be updated shortly.
 
But, she took Illinois, Ohio and Missouri, they were all open primaries, so I have a little faith.

Not to mention Texas and Massachusetts and Virginia and Arkansas. And all the other states with open primaries that Sanders would have you disregard because they are in the south (Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, etc).
 
I'd say same about Rhode Island, but there was that poll with him being 4 ahead. Still he won by like 12 points.

So yeah, if she does win, I'll be pleasently surprised.

But, she took Illinois, Ohio and Missouri, they were all open primaries, so I have a little faith.

There was almost no polling done in Rhode Island, and Bernie was up in the polls closest to election day. There's really wasn't anything surprising.

Hillary has won almost all of the open primaries so far. Yes, they give a slight boost to Bernie, but the boost isn't that big.

Indiana has substantially more polls, and polls from more distinct firms, and Hillary is ahead in all of them. Bernie can still win it, but he definitely isn't the favorite going in.

Gotta take into account a +15 modifier for open primaries

It's like a 3~4 swing, isn't it? +15 is his modifier for Caucuses.
 
Not to mention Texas and Massachusetts and Virginia and Arkansas. And all the other states with open primaries that Sanders would have you disregard because they are in the south (Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, etc).

I mean, Hillary would have won in the south no matter how the contest was, so in this situation it doesn't really help the argument.

Her winning Ohio, Illinois for instance, neighbouring states of Indiana, is more telling.

There was almost no polling done in Rhode Island, and Bernie was up in the polls closest to election day. There's really wasn't anything surprising.

Hillary has won almost all of the open primaries so far. Yes, they give a slight boost to Bernie, but the boost isn't that big.

I definitely hope she clinches it. For sure it'll be closer than RI. Which was always in doubt anyway despite most of the polls favouring her.

Trump's about to disappoint a lot of Democrats (and Republicans) hoping for a brokered GOP convention.

Not sure any democrats will be sad, he is 50/50 when it comes to beating him and Cruz. Imagine if Kasich got it in a convention? Or someone else.
 
I definitely hope she clinches it. For sure it'll be closer than RI. Which was always in doubt anyway despite most of the polls favouring her.
Whether she wins by 8 or loses by 1 or 2 maps to only a few delegate swing. Tomorrow's primary won't change much on the Democratic side.
 
In the Democratic presidential race in California, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 57 percent to 38 percent.


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If Hillary wins by that much in CA, it will only be because of voter fraud, a conspiracy, or Bill at polling sites harassing people.

At least that is what I anticipate my Facebook feed to look like after it.
 
Are you kidding? Now the party has to unite behind Trump. I'm thrilled.
I wasn't voicing my opinion either way. As a Democrat, Trump is the best thing that could happen for Hillary.

But some of my Dem friends are still hoping for a brokered convention because of the cataclysmic effects it would have on the GOP long-term. Choosing Trump will leave the party licking its wounds this November and going back to the drawing board; choosing someone other than Trump would destroy the party and ensure there's no drawing board to go back to.

Personally, I only care about this November. The GOP will eat itself alive eventually, anyway.
 
Whether she wins by 8 or loses by 1 or 2 maps to only a few delegate swing. Tomorrow's primary won't change much on the Democratic side.

Wouldn't change anything if he won by 40 points, it's just all about the narrative. I don't wanna see any more delusion from bernie fans.
 
I wasn't voicing my opinion either way. As a Democrat, Trump is the best thing that could happen for Hillary.

But some of my Dem friends are still hoping for a brokered convention because of the cataclysmic effects it would have on the GOP long-term. Choosing Trump will leave the party licking its wounds this November and going back to the drawing board; choosing someone other than Trump would destroy the party and ensure there's no drawing board to go back to
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i think im even more pessimistic than your friends that think it will destroy the GOP.

i think most of the GOP is going to embrace Trump when they realize they have to.
 
The Republican nominee will be decided tomorrow in Indiana

Trump has 996 delegates and has to have 1237 to avoid a scene at the convention

He has an insurmountable lead in NJ (57 delegates) and California (172)

If Trump wins Indiana then all the media hype about a brokered convention will be totally unfounded

California is not a winner take all state in the classic sense, but instead its winner take all district by district. So its like 40 little elections, and its unlikely any one candidate would sweep every single district. I think most predictions are for Trump to get 90-110 of those, so it will still be pretty close. NJ is winner take all for the state though.
 
California is not a winner take all state in the classic sense, but instead its winner take all district by district. So its like 40 little elections, and its unlikely any one candidate would sweep every single district. I think most predictions are for Trump to get 90-110 of those, so it will still be pretty close. NJ is winner take all for the state though.

the last poll out of CA had Trump at 52 and Cruz/Kasich middling around 20

that kind of split would get Trump closer to 160-170 than 100
 
the last poll out of CA had Trump at 52 and Cruz/Kasich middling around 20

that kind of split would get Trump closer to 160-170 than 100

Yeah, LAT had a poll that broke out support by region a couple weeks ago. Trump was leading every single one. Not CD by CD, so there may be a couple flips, but the state is his.
 
Just popped up in my feed:

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Along with the comment:
"Nobody I know is a Hillary supporter. Would it be fair to guess that you have Hillary supporters talking trash in your feed?"

Yes. Brainwashed by math and statistics. Ugh.

I used to be all on the Bernie train, but as time went on and I realized he had no real plan to achieve his goals and it was the same shit regurgitated over and over, and many people I know going crazier and crazier, I jumped off the train.
 
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