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[Damaniel]

Real Talk: Ron Wyden is the fucking man.

It annoys me to see "progressives" on facebook call him a neoliberal/not a real democrat because he didn't kiss the Sanders ring

Seriously. We need to support good Democrats statewide, and Wyden is one of the best. I'm not planning to throw Jeff Merkley under the bus when the time comes just because he chose to endorse Bernie, and I'd hope that Bernie's more vocal supporters would see the bigger picture instead of tossing aside yet another supposed 'pro-Hillary shill'.

As far as Indiana goes, I expect the race to be very close, and I wouldn't be surprised if Bernie wins it since he's pretty strongly outperformed the polling in open primaries so far. It certainly won't make a difference either way since we're getting past the point where even his most vocal supporters can claim 'momentum!' with a straight face.

 

[Darryl M R]

"Fraud!"
"Voter suppression!"
"Establishment rigging the system!"

Something alone those lines I would imagine.

How long can those same old excuses go on?

My friend, who the only Bernie supporter I know, now thinks that the FBI is going to indict Clinton in October for the e-mail thing because the head of the FBI is a republican. There's also those who think she's as bad as Trump, which I tried really hard not to laugh at.

Yea I would say that is a common post/theme on the subreddit. A lot of people thinking she will get indicted and some posts saying "Bernie or independent chick who's name I don't remember, or Bust"

 

[PhoncipleBone]

How long can those same old excuses go on?

As long as Bernie can keep regurgitating his talking points without having a plan to enact them.

 

[Square2015]

New Rasmussen poll: trump beating Hillary for the first time and by 2 pts. (41-39)


http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-electio...tm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous/news

 

[Macho Madness]

New Rasmussen poll: trump beating Hillary for the first time and by 2 pts. (41-39)


http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-electio...tm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous/news

Rasmussen is the shits. I think we need to make that perfectly clear. Still, trend lines and aggregates are far more important.

 

[Damaniel]

New Rasmussen poll: trump beating Hillary for the first time and by 2 pts. (41-39)


http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-electio...tm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous/news

Rasmussen? The polling firm rated the worst of 2012, and with a consistent and significant Republican bias? I'll take that one with a huge grain of salt

 

[Quixzlizx]

Is it too late to change Cruz' passport to "Fish Monster"?

 

[dramatis]

Is it too late to change Cruz' passport to "Fish Monster"?

I'm lazy, so the only time I'd change his passport is to stamp an ENTRY DENIED on it

 

[Macho Madness]

So what's happening in Indiana on the GOP ticket? What are polls showing?

TRUMP

 

[sangreal]

So what's happening in Indiana on the GOP ticket? What are polls showing?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/whos-winning-indiana-its-anybodys-guess-222711

(It's going to be Trump)

 

[Box of Kittens]

So what's happening in Indiana on the GOP ticket? What are polls showing?

If polls are accurate, the question is whether Trump will sweep the delegates or Cruz can pick off a district or two.

 

[ApharmdX]

First time peaking in a politiGAF thread, and I have to say the maturity of the discussion is very pleasing.

Been wondering about something while witnessing the past 8 months or so of primaries.
Now full discolosure, I am a Frenchman (naturalized US citizen about 6 years ago) and I remember the chaos surrounding the 2002 French elections (when Lepen, an extreme right racist made it to the second turn of the Presidential election, spurring a vote of opposition which saw the more moderate right Chirac win with more than 80% of the votes).
Now I'm not saying the situation is exactly similar, but given Trump's rather extreme positions (real or not, I suspect he says things he thinks will get him what he wants, whatever that may be) do you think we could see a similar effect and some moderate right electors choosing to back the democrat nominee?

The moderate right has been gutted since the Tea Party came on the scene. There are very, very few center-right politicians in America today. And anyone with an R behind their name will be scared of linking themselves with Hillary Clinton, who has been cast as the devil in conservative circles for decades.

I'll be surprised if you see many Republicans support Hillary. They'll fall in line behind Trump, even his staunchest opposition. I can't wait to see it.

 

[studyguy]

Pulling from PoliGAF. A Cruz ad.
Really this is some awful stuff. Hope this trans bathroom stuff becomes a blip in the rearview mirror soon enough after this election. It's absolutely disgusting to use this as ammunition to fuel your candidacy.

 

[Miles X]

Pulling from PoliGAF. A Cruz ad.
Really this is some awful stuff. Hope this trans bathroom stuff becomes a blip in the rearview mirror soon enough after this election. It's absolutely disgusting to use this as ammunition to fuel your candidacy.

It's funny, usually they only tout gays as children predators.

What's also funny is, that guy in the pic could easily portray be a F2M.

 

[Tubie]

I predict a big Trump win and a Sanders win with a similar margin to RI, maybe a bit closer.

 

[Miles X]

I predict a big Trump win and a Sanders win with a similar margin to RI, maybe a bit closer.

Early voting up 100k from 2008. This is good news for Clinton, and honestly, potentially for Cruz.

Updated Indiana early voting number: 279,368. That's way up from 119,639 in 2012 and 185,692 in 2008. Expect big turnout. #INPrimary

That's benchmark.

 

[Y2Kev]

Why is high turnout good for Cruz? In an open primary, isn't this good for trump? And doesn't it matter where people are turning out?

 

[ivysaur12]

That's benchmark.

That's really good for Clinton.

Why is high turnout good for Cruz? In an open primary, isn't this good for trump? And doesn't it matter where people are turning out?

Yeah. I don't think there's been anything on the R side that's correlated with early vote = Cruz like there is on the D side.

 

[Box of Kittens]

You could argue that early votes would be helpful to Cruz based on movement in the polls to Trump.

 

[ivysaur12]

You could argue that early votes would be helpful to Cruz based on movement in the polls to Trump.

Yeah that makes more sense.

 

[boiled goose]

Pulling from PoliGAF. A Cruz ad.
Really this is some awful stuff. Hope this trans bathroom stuff becomes a blip in the rearview mirror soon enough after this election. It's absolutely disgusting to use this as ammunition to fuel your candidacy.

This is so hilariously (and depressingly) disgusting.
It is like a parody of a misleading attack ad. except it is real.

 

[Rentahamster]

When Cruz and Beck were talking about the trans bathroom issue on the radio before, they made clear to point out that they were only concerned not about trans people, but heterosexual pedophiles who would abuse the right to go inside. That was probably bullshit, but now we know it is because:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/glen...-of-thingamajig-downstairs-at-ted-cruz-rally/

Despite Ted Cruz’s protests to the contrary, prominent Cruz surrogate Glenn Beck let the cat out of the bag about the true nature of opposition to anti-transgender “bathroom bills” when he spoke at a Ted Cruz rally in Indianapolis this week. Cruz has said that he’s not worried about real transpeople like Caitlyn Jenner, just imposters who don’t actually exist, but in his remarks to the crowd, Beck belied that fiction with a single word (emphasis mine):

“When we can’t say, ‘You know what dude, you still got the thingamajig downstairs? Then you shouldn’t go into the ladies restroom.’ When we can’t say that, we’ve lost our minds!”

 

[Euron]

Seriously. We need to support good Democrats statewide, and Wyden is one of the best. I'm not planning to throw Jeff Merkley under the bus when the time comes just because he chose to endorse Bernie, and I'd hope that Bernie's more vocal supporters would see the bigger picture instead of tossing aside yet another supposed 'pro-Hillary shill'.

My biggest issue with many Bernie supporters is their tendency to demonize every politician that isn't Bernie Sanders (or in some cases, Elizabeth Warren). Many senators up for election have the potential to help the legislation in which Bernie supporters desire come into existence. But if they call all these people "Hillary Shills", "Fake Democrats", etc, then that plays right into the hands of the Republicans in opposition. Even if another politician is not on board with your candidate, there needs to be compromise if we are ever to achieve progress.

 

[Goro Majima]

The death throes of the Cruz campaign have been crazy...just so many bad decisions. All these Cruz supporters are in straight denial about the reality also based on what I've seen on CNN.

Can't wait until he drops out because reality hitting the Republican Party is going to be an absolute circus. Hopefully it'll happen after tonight but somehow I doubt it.

 

[Miles X]

West Virginia PPP Polls

West Virginia Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Trump 61, Cruz 22, Kasich 14 Trump +39

West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D) Sanders 45, Clinton 37 Sanders +8

MSNBC reported lots of Trump love in Hamilton County, IN. That was supposed to be a Cruz county.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

The OPs for these primaries have almost all been fantastic as hell, but I think this one is my favorite.

Too fuckin' good.

 

[Miles X]

2/3 hours until results?

 

[Box of Kittens]

MSNBC reported lots of Trump love in Hamilton County, IN. That was supposed to be a Cruz county.

We'll see how the votes turn out but if Trump overperforms in Hamilton (wealthy northern Indianapolis suburbs like Carmel, Fishers, and Noblesville) then he has a really good chance at sweeping Indiana's delegates, which are awarded winner take all by district. Hamilton County is in the 5th district, which I expect to be the shakiest one for Trump.

 

[DJ Lushious]

Gary Indiana gave us Freddie Gibbs though, I can't hate.

I don't listen or pay any attention to rap, so I did not know this. I looked him up on Wikipedia and, yeah, he definitely grew up in the part of Gary I wouldn't want to be, day or night.

This is completely anecdotal, but I have friends and family in Southern Indiana and visit there a couple of times a year. There seem to be quite a few people down there who loved Mitch Daniels but are fed up with Pence. And this is a part of the state that should be strong for Pence.

For what it's worth, the last poll I saw had Pence ahead but Gregg was within striking distance.

Orange County area? East or West of that? I am shocked to hear your story, anecdotal or not. And not just because they think Mitch Daniels was better. ;-)

 

[Box of Kittens]

Orange County area? East or West of that? I am shocked to hear your story, anecdotal or not. And not just because they think Mitch Daniels was better. ;-)

Mostly west and a little south. Most of them are in Dubois County, with a few in Spencer, Perry, and Vanderburgh. Vanderburgh of course has Evansville, and Perry is kind of an odd duck in that it's a rural Southern Indiana county that still leans Democratic. The people I've talked to may not be representative, but I was somewhat surprised just because that's one of the parts of the state where I would expect Pence's numbers to hold up.

I also have a lot of family and friends in Monroe County, but it's a given that Pence wouldn't be popular there. Monroe even voted for Jill Long Thompson over Mitch Daniels.

 

[massoluk]

538 final forecast.

Trump win Indiana at 43.6%, Cruz 37.6%, Kasich 16.2%
Hillary win Indiana at 54.2%, Sanders 43.3%

But man, look at the swing for GOP projection.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/

 

[Miles X]

Dem race: 18% of primary voters are black.

51% of voters in the GOP want someone who is "Outside of the establishment."

 

[Matt_]

Dem race: 18% of primary voters are black.

51% of voters in the GOP want someone who is "Outside of the establishment."

That's a really high black turnout right?

 

[Miles X]

That's a really high black turnout right?

I 'think' so? 2008 was 17%.

Honest and Trustworthy from exits: Clinton: 54-43% Sanders 84-12%

 

[Velcro Fly]

Lake County Indiana checking in here

Asked the poll workers about turnout and they said it was high where I voted and across the area. Never super busy but steady all day.

Fingers crossed

Spoiler

for Hillary

 

[Adaren]

538 final forecast.

Trump win Indiana at 43.6%, Cruz 37.6%, Kasich 16.2%
Hillary win Indiana at 54.2%, Sanders 43.3%

But man, look at the swing for GOP projection.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/

Their Cruz prediction seems high, especially given how much he's floundered over the last few days.

 

[Goro Majima]

Their Cruz prediction seems high, especially given how much he's floundered over the last few days.

Plus when you factor in double digit leads in the polls, I'm not seeing where they're getting those numbers

Edit: when you switch to "polls only" he gets 45% to Cruz's 35% which seems slightly more reasonable

 

[Veritigo_X]

Their Cruz prediction seems high, especially given how much he's floundered over the last few days.

I don't know how you factor in a random VP pick and whatever that display was today into a statistical model.

 

[catmincer]

Hoping for a convincing Hillary win. The more she wins by the faster this should be over.

 

[Geg]

538 final forecast.

Trump win Indiana at 43.6%, Cruz 37.6%, Kasich 16.2%
Hillary win Indiana at 54.2%, Sanders 43.3%

But man, look at the swing for GOP projection.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/

I noticed that yesterday, what caused the big swing on May 1?

 

[Tubie]

I noticed that yesterday, what caused the big swing on May 1?

Cruz imploded in spectacular fashion.

 

[piratepwnsninja]

So if Cruz doesn't get Indiana, is the brokered convention a near impossibility?

 

[Culex]

So if Cruz doesn't get Indiana, is the brokered convention a near impossibility?

Correct. Mathematically improbable.

 

[Geg]

Cruz imploded in spectacular fashion.

Yeah but that's been ongoing for the last week or so, I didn't think it would just suddenly happen like that

 

[Sean C]

Dem race: 18% of primary voters are black.

51% of voters in the GOP want someone who is "Outside of the establishment."

Hoping for a convincing Hillary win. The more she wins by the faster this should be over.

Black turnout at nearly 20% of the total electorate should mean a Hillary victory. Sanders doesn't do well in states where the black vote is over 10%.

This won't affect how long the race lasts, though. Sanders is in through California regardless.

 

[echoshifting]

The OPs for these primaries have almost all been fantastic as hell, but I think this one is my favorite.

Too fuckin' good.

Mine too. Crazy good. GLORY TO AMERICA

 

[chadskin]

Glory to OP! Fantastic stuff.

 

[DrForester]

He's got some more "Black Friends"

Pulling from PoliGAF. A Cruz ad.
Really this is some awful stuff. Hope this trans bathroom stuff becomes a blip in the rearview mirror soon enough after this election. It's absolutely disgusting to use this as ammunition to fuel your candidacy.

Better a Man in the Girls room than a Republican Speaker of the House in the Boys room.

 

[catmincer]

Black turnout at nearly 20% of the total electorate should mean a Hillary victory. Sanders doesn't do well in states where the black vote is over 10%.

This won't affect how long the race lasts, though. Sanders is in through California regardless.

Oh definitely. But the more he starts losing by, the less money and attention he'll get and the real battle can begin.

 

[Murder. She Wrote]

I just realized that Bernie is only six years older than Hillary. wtf he looks ancient compared to her.