No.
May U.S. Primaries |OT| Glory to America
- Thread starter dramatis
- Start date
- Status
No.
First time peaking in a politiGAF thread, and I have to say the maturity of the discussion is very pleasing.
Been wondering about something while witnessing the past 8 months or so of primaries.
Now full discolosure, I am a Frenchman (naturalized US citizen about 6 years ago) and I remember the chaos surrounding the 2002 French elections (when Lepen, an extreme right racist made it to the second turn of the Presidential election, spurring a vote of opposition which saw the more moderate right Chirac win with more than 80% of the votes).
Now I'm not saying the situation is exactly similar, but given Trump's rather extreme positions (real or not, I suspect he says things he thinks will get him what he wants, whatever that may be) do you think we could see a similar effect and some moderate right electors choosing to back the democrat nominee?
Been wondering about something while witnessing the past 8 months or so of primaries.
Now full discolosure, I am a Frenchman (naturalized US citizen about 6 years ago) and I remember the chaos surrounding the 2002 French elections (when Lepen, an extreme right racist made it to the second turn of the Presidential election, spurring a vote of opposition which saw the more moderate right Chirac win with more than 80% of the votes).
Now I'm not saying the situation is exactly similar, but given Trump's rather extreme positions (real or not, I suspect he says things he thinks will get him what he wants, whatever that may be) do you think we could see a similar effect and some moderate right electors choosing to back the democrat nominee?
Depends on if the GOP decides to try and run a more establishment candidate as a 3rd party to try and save their grip on the House and Senate. If they don't, I imagine there will either be some crossover or people will stay home. I don't think Clinton will win with 80% of the vote, but even in Trump's best case scenario she runs away with it.
Link
The Autumn Wind
I can't anymore with these people. They clearly don't even know what a brokered convention is.Just popped up in my feed:
Along with the comment:
"Nobody I know is a Hillary supporter. Would it be fair to guess that you have Hillary supporters talking trash in your feed?"
Yes. Brainwashed by math and statistics. Ugh.
I used to be all on the Bernie train, but as time went on and I realized he had no real plan to achieve his goals and it was the same shit regurgitated over and over, and many people I know going crazier and crazier, I jumped off the train.
Classy.
Box of Kittens
Banned
You'd think they'd at least come up with some new Hillary "jokes."
perfectchaos007
Member
Did Trump re-tweet them yet?
tearsintherain
Member
The way districts are drawn up though the conservatives tend to be clustered in certain districts, so while Cruz may only have 20% of Republicans state wide, in certain districts it may be much higher. Orange County has a number of extremely wealthy neighborhoods that always elect conservatives, or the rural counties out east will be much more conservative than the rest of the state. So in those places Cruz may beat Trump and pick up delegates in districts in which he gets over 50%.
I don't think even Trump expects he'll pull 160 electoral voters out of California, at best maybe 120-130 but much more likely closer to 100.
All this only matters for the primary, when the fall election comes around its a given the state's electoral college delegates will all go to Hillary, since its not district based but state winner takes all.
The way districts are drawn up though the conservatives tend to be clustered in certain districts, so while Cruz may only have 20% of Republicans state wide, in certain districts it may be much higher. Orange County has a number of extremely wealthy neighborhoods that always elect conservatives, or the rural counties out east will be much more conservative than the rest of the state. So in those places Cruz may beat Trump and pick up all those delegates, even though state wide he is way below.
I don't think even Trump expects he'll pull 160 electoral voters out of California, at best maybe 120-130 but much more likely closer to 100.
Well, first, polls have shown that Trump has huge leads almost everywhere except for the Central Valley.
The second part is that this is actually terrible for Cruz. There are only around 15 Republican or Republican-leaning districts in CA. The rest are all Democratic or Democratic-leaning districts. These are the districts that Trump has thrived in. And since the RNC is dumb and gave every single CD the same amount of delegates, it doesn't matter if 100,000 people vote for Cruz in CA-23 and he crushes Trump. If Trump wins CA-28 with 5,000 people voting for him, it's the same amount of delegates.
In a word: Sad!
Also that map is terrible. Those LA districts are not "Conservative Liberal", what is this garbage. ALSO, that map doesn't even have the correct CDs!
Time to motherfukin VOTE
Already done. I got and studied the voter's pamphlet and had the ballot out the door the day after I got it.
So many of my Facebook friends posted pictures of their ballots with Bernie's name filled in. I feel like an island in a Berning sea...
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
Just popped up in my feed:
Along with the comment:
"Nobody I know is a Hillary supporter. Would it be fair to guess that you have Hillary supporters talking trash in your feed?"
Yes. Brainwashed by math and statistics. Ugh.
I used to be all on the Bernie train, but as time went on and I realized he had no real plan to achieve his goals and it was the same shit regurgitated over and over, and many people I know going crazier and crazier, I jumped off the train.
Facts have a
neo
Folks like this are a lost cause I'm afraid. They're just going to sit out the election like a buncha babies that didn't get their way. Thankfully this isn't the majority of Bernie's supporters' first election so they'll be there. A lot of them might not like Hillary but they have a brain in their heads and realize the balance SUPREME MOTHERFUCKING COURT isn't just some "eh, whatever" shit.
My Bernie-loving friends have been incredibly quiet since last Tuesday.
If you think sitting out is bad, one of my friends also voted against Ron Wyden (the first US senator to openly support same-sex marriage and the first politician in congress to stand against SOPA) and Kate Brown (the first openly gay governor and a HUGE proponent LGBT rights). His reason? Because they endorsed Hillary, not Bernie.
That is so punitive and dumb! I hope you told him he's a dumb person!
Havoc2049
Member
Maybe if we fast with Glenn Beck, we can all ride the Cruz crazy train to victory.
Cruz is becoming a joke here in California.
The Trump rally in Costa Mesa, CA (Orange County), had around 31,000 supporters show up for Trump.
Cruz is done.
Others got to it before me.
IrishNinja
Member
"Really nasty stuff here! RT"
soundscream
Member
That KFC button is not an insult at all.
#thatsmyfetish
As the great poet spoke....
"she got a ass that'll swallow up a G string, and up top, uh, 2 bee stings"
brainchild
Banned
Pretty sweet OP!
No way in hell is Orange County voting for Ted Cruz. Blue blood conservatives like that want nothing to do with Cruz.
I'm making a prediction that popular vote will be closer than recent elections, but it'll be an electoral vote blowout for Clinton.
Already safe Republican States are going to see huge turnout for Trump, while swing States that are absolutely essential to win are going to see him as posion and turn out against.
And well get another 8 years of "real America was robbed" while Trump ID denounced as the not true scottsman they needed.
Link
The Autumn Wind
This is the only reason I wish Cruz would win the nomination. After he gets completely destroyed in the general, maybe we could stop hearing the "He just wasn't a true conservative!" excuse like we've heard the last couple of elections. But nope, we'll be listening to that same song and dance again come November.
DJ Lushious
Member
Same here. I've got PS Vue running on my phone right now, tuned to CNN. I am really anxious to see IN's results tonight. Though, I have to admit, I'm anticipating the Republican results the most.
EDIT
This is fun! CNN is interviewing a man in Terre Haute. I'm in Northwest Indiana, which is traditionally blue, so I was taken aback by this man, southern accent and all, who said he voted for Bernie.
Turn it off lol, you'll just use up your battery
Results won't come in for another like 11-12 hours?
DJ Lushious
Member
Yes! The basketball culture in small town Indiana is, I would say, far more important to Hoosiers than politics. And Governor Pence caters almost exclusively to his evangelical base. I would be utterly shocked if John Gregg doesn't win the Governor position this go-round. Governor Pence narrowly beat him before. I'd say most of Pence's actions in the past two years have backfired in his face big time.CNN said:
My own personal opinion is that I want to see Governor Pence crash and burn, once and for all.
It's plugged into the wall. ;-)
Yeah, results will be in the time frame you've mentioned, but for once Indiana actually matters. It's hard to not get swept up in that hype.
Please, please let this happen. Pence is so terrible.
DJ Lushious
Member
Well, now you're being kind and holding back. Mike Pence is runny hobo shit in the corner of an apartment entrance.
I see "Fire Mike Pence" or "Your Job Could Be Next. Vote Out Mike Pence" signs all over the place. Again, I am in Northwest Indiana, which is traditionally blue, but these signs have been up for over six months now.
If "True conservatives" cant even make it through the primaries, why do people think that they would win a general election that the candidate who beat them didnt win?
Macho Madness
Member
I watched a little bit of MSNBC coverage of it. They got so frustrated they called someone to ask what was going on. "We're counting the votes." they said and a reporter responds "It's all electronic, isn't it?"
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Get that logic out of here!
Gary Indiana gave us Freddie Gibbs though, I can't hate.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
"Libs keep hijacking the party! First Romney, then Trump!"
The same reason Sander's supporters give. It's that they have the best ideas, and that if given the platform to explain them they would win every vote.
Regarding Cruz and this insanity, this is the reason I want TRump to win this time around. If Trump gets the nomination, then when he goes down in a ball of flame Cruz will be the next in line and will be able to run on the "he wasn't a true conservative" ticket in 2020, and make Hillary's chances of staying on a lot stronger. If Cruz gets it this time around and goes down in flames, then the party has no real excuse and will almost certainly have to adjust and nominate someone slightly more rational for 2020 and put up a much stronger fight against Clinton.
Darryl M R
Member
If Hillary wins most of today I want to know how Bernie supporters will react. A lot of friends I have on social media stopped sharing a lot of Bernie stuff and I feel like reddit (and the subreddit) has been a lot slower.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
With Indiana being an open primary, at least we won't get the whining about a closed state.
They'll find something to bitch about, and make up some more unicorn math to get Bernie the win.
Darryl M R
Member
I completely agree, the whining really annoyed me. I don't know who is polling better in Indiana but from my short search on the Bernie subreddit it was implied heavily that he is going to win the state for sure (versus how NY was up in the air but it would be close). I know I'm getting my pulse checks from a bias subreddit but that was my objective; to check out how his most devoted supporters were feeling about his chances.
Either way I'm glad to hear that lines are moving fast for people to cast their vote.
Live Free or Die
Banned
Make America great again! Trump 2016!
balladofwindfishes
Member
Doesn't matter. Bernie has lost more open states than he's won. She has won the majority of open primaries.
They ignore it. They don't care.
jack_package_200
Banned
Time to motherfukin VOTE
Real Talk: Ron Wyden is the fucking man.
It annoys me to see "progressives" on facebook call him a neoliberal/not a real democrat because he didn't kiss the Sanders ring
My friend, who the only Bernie supporter I know, now thinks that the FBI is going to indict Clinton in October for the e-mail thing because the head of the FBI is a republican. There's also those who think she's as bad as Trump, which I tried really hard not to laugh at.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Vigo County (Terre Haute) has traditionally been something of a bellwether county nationally. It almost always votes for the winner of the election. The last time it didn't was in 1952, when it supported Stevenson over Eisenhower.
Box of Kittens
Banned
This is completely anecdotal, but I have friends and family in Southern Indiana and visit there a couple of times a year. There seem to be quite a few people down there who loved Mitch Daniels but are fed up with Pence. And this is a part of the state that should be strong for Pence.
For what it's worth, the last poll I saw had Pence ahead but Gregg was within striking distance.
googleplex
Member
"Fraud!"
"Voter suppression!"
"Establishment rigging the system!"
Something alone those lines I would imagine.
Fenderputty
Banned
That KFC joke is old as dirt
Box of Kittens
Banned
The version I heard originally also had some line about having the tax on it be super high, but I guess that wouldn't fit on a button.
- Status