That'd be one mighty tumble for the monthly Amazon ranking.
I'm guessing you base that on the Gamestop trade in deal?
April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I'm guessing you base that on the Gamestop trade in deal?
He did say he was gambling
CosmicQueso
Member
It's a shame there's no middle ground anymore. Either a game is amazing or garbage, sales are the best or the worst, things are hits or bombs. No subtlety. Funny part is that those arguing for the middle ground are the ones that get labeled fanboys at times.
Everyone's a Sith. Get with the times, or get left behind.
It's not worth it man. The chances of you actually changing anyone's minds about the existing assumptions they've decided to believe are slim to none. When discussion is clearly not the intent there's no reason to engage. Just not worth the frustration (or risk).
Wow he's always been extremely level headed (far more so than myself). These are dangerous times we post in my friends. Be wary.
Hah! Man you are too good at this. You make it look easy. I am eternally envious.
I think a lot of that has to do with the increased stakes resulting from rapidly escalating development budgets especially with western games development. People see lower sales than the blockbusters they're used to and not realizing the large disparity in budgets for games (esp between AAA 3rd parties and 1st parties or most Eastern Developed games) immediately assume it's a failure.
In the case of SFV I can understand why people think that with it feeling to meet Capcom's expectations and selling significantly less than the previous entry in the series. That said we don't know what the development budget was for the game so we have no way of knowing whether or not it has been profitable for them thus far. I do think it's sold significantly more than most thought it had so that is a bit encouraging and with it being a console exclusive it's obviously going to get a lot of attention whenever the prior widespread assumption of utter failure is challenged by new info.
TLDR: ignorance begets baseless assumptions. Baseless assumptions beget fear. Fear begets hate. Then the perpetual cycle begins anew.
Bananajama
Banned
I'm just having a hunch with Quantum Break
Uncharted delay
PS4.5 maybe putting a few off
It's not much to go on
But it might be enough for a one month only win
All indications are that Quantum Break was not much of a platform seller at all even with the white bundle. The likelihood of a rumored unannounced system decreasing sales of an existing system that's selling well with the more casual market are also slim to none.
But I will grant you the UC4 delay (it's why I put my PS4 prediction significantly lower than most here). Just about the only thing I could see loving the needle for XB1 this month is the trade in deal but I'm just not sure how appealing that is since there were similar (albeit shorter lived) trade in promotions for the PS4 as well.
Still it seems like a pretty big stretch TBH. Unless you have some insight implying otherwise?
PanicFreak
Member
QB will do about was well as a loud fart in church.
Primethius
Banned
I kind of gave April to PS4 solely because UC was delayed. I'd think with it coming out next month (err.. today), people would be picking up a PS4 along with the UC collection in preparation.
Perhaps not in big numbers, but enough that combined with PS4s regular momentum would give it the win in a slow month.
Perhaps not in big numbers, but enough that combined with PS4s regular momentum would give it the win in a slow month.
Omnistalgic
Member
thats all I was trying to get a across lol. I really was losing my sanity there tho, definitely gonna stick with good ol sales GAF.
Tell me about it. It sucks too because models like SFV and Paragon are interesting concepts that's intriguing to me. I do like to follow the sales path of the gsmes and see how successful they turn out to be. Paragon is free to play, but released a $60 version with a substantial amount of content. SFV basically did the opposite but said "well give you a bunch of free stuff every month"
Devs are trying completely new models right in front of us but all we can focus on is division. I think SFV is worse because it's a two groups. Fanboys, and Casual players offended the game wasn't tailored made for SP experiences. Yeesh!! Lol
Huh never really thought about it that way. I just assumed there would be some sales bumped to May given the preorders of the limited system and the release of the game in that month similar to what we saw in early fall last year with the Battlefront and CoD bundles. Albeit less pronounced thanks to the absence of the first major price cut and the former being a significantly less appealing bundle mass market wise thanks to its higher price point and limited quantity.
I suppose either outcome could be the case.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep, I posted a few times in that SFV thread and then bounced. Ain't nobody got time for insanity. A shame that thread took two of our resident SalesGaf members. *pours liquor*
Oh, and I am upping my prediction from ~800K to ~1M for UC4.
Oh, and I am upping my prediction from ~800K to ~1M for UC4.
Omnistalgic
Member
well said Rex, I'm staying in here and OT threads from now on.
CosmicQueso
Member
This is indicative of a much larger, and more fundamental, problem. The sales sliver that is sometimes available (packaged sales from only a handful of territories) makes following sales trends for titles that are trying different models impossible.
Then when you want to have a thoughtful discussion, it becomes endless bickering about assumptions, the inability of most people to even comprehend the assumptions being discussed, and a whole bunch of garbage and nonsense.
To be fair though, the lack of information is a huge problem for everyone in the industry, not just fans.
I think SFV's biggest issue was their failure to communicate their release plan to the mass market. Most of them went in expecting another retail SF release. This is also shown by the response the release received from the media.
I also think their model is flawed as its asking people to put forth full price for what is inevitably a markedly incomplete product in the eyes of most consumers. They would have been far better served by adopting an early access style model as the implications of such a title are very clear to the consumer and inbeleuvevthey would've seen a far more post outbid reaction due to a focus on mechanics instead of some sort of arbitrary amount of content some felt they were due.
I actually think the Killer Instinct model is fantastic too and could see such a model working incredibly well if it had been implemented for SFV.
All said I think it's obvious that the market at large were not a fan of SFVs release model. I just hope a slow start doesn't handicap the potential future support for the title.
We really need a reliable source for digital sales information. The absence of that info is becoming more and more troublesome as time goes on and the digital share of the market increases. It's quickly becoming a massive blind spot for any meaningful sales discussion in the industry.
Last years Xbox's win was from the Gamestop trade-in deal AND strong sales at Amazon. This is Amazon April 2015 top 100 best sellers:
41. PS4
42. X1 Assassin's Creed bundle
52. X1 Halo Master Chief bundle
This is what Amazon looks like in April 2016:
17. PS4 COD Bundle
90. PS4 Vanilla Sku
97. X1 QB White Bundle
Even with the trade-in deals - it seems like customers opted for the trade-in route with no extra sales coming from Amazon as opposed to last year (assuming) strong trade-in deals AND competitive Amazon purchases.
I usually don't post any numbers but try to follow the thread. Apologies if this has been posted already.
41. PS4
42. X1 Assassin's Creed bundle
52. X1 Halo Master Chief bundle
This is what Amazon looks like in April 2016:
17. PS4 COD Bundle
90. PS4 Vanilla Sku
97. X1 QB White Bundle
Even with the trade-in deals - it seems like customers opted for the trade-in route with no extra sales coming from Amazon as opposed to last year (assuming) strong trade-in deals AND competitive Amazon purchases.
I usually don't post any numbers but try to follow the thread. Apologies if this has been posted already.
Voost Kain
Banned
We don't know Amazon numbers so we really have no idea how well the XB1 sold and given GS's marketshare in game consoles and softrware sales in general it was likely just because of the GS deal.
Voost Kain
Banned
What indications are those?
Whatever Famitsu's doing in Japan, need more of that elsewhere. Japan's kind of a smaller digital landscape, but we have more insight to digital there than most other places!
DriftingSpirit
Member
Retail insiders who post here would be one.
Welfare
Member
Part way into the GameStop deal, the Xbox One on Amazon dropped like a rock. It dropped to lows that it never had been to before, and when the GameStop deal ended, the Xbox One on Amazon started to go back to where it was selling before hand (relatively).
To me, that shows Amazon's share for Xbox One sales was essentially eaten by GameStop. If not that, you would need a really good reason on why receiving a $50 price cut actually destroyed Xbox One sales on Amazon, and then a price raise actually restabilized its sales.
To me, that shows Amazon's share for Xbox One sales was essentially eaten by GameStop. If not that, you would need a really good reason on why receiving a $50 price cut actually destroyed Xbox One sales on Amazon, and then a price raise actually restabilized its sales.
Voost Kain
Banned
Isn't Amazon like 4th in marketshare?
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I wonder if amazon ever made actual retail stores would their market share over games trump game stops.
Now it's probably bigger due to Prime discount , but yeah GS is still the king.
iamsirjoshua
Member
Their entire business model is built around maximizing efficiencies that brick and mortar retailers can't, so a better hypothetical might be if Amazon were ever able to increase the availability of free same-day shipping to the point where it further eliminated a big advantage of retail stores (immediacy). Could GameStop survive that?
Now my best guess:
[PS4] 175K
[XB1] 168K -- Pretty close to PS4
[3DS] 120K
[WIIU] 10K -- Official confirmation of NX likely dropped this further than expected
Voost Kain
Banned
Well first Amazon would actually have to HAVE free same-day shipping.
But there's a point where Amazons model in its current form would start to have diminishing returns and it would end up costing much more in the long term and be completely disorganized.
slavesnyder
Member
It's hypothetical (as he mentioned). Nevertheless I am quite sure they are working on that constantly. Let's see what the future brings with all those drones and stuff.
They are also working with digital distribution of console games, so some exclusive partnership for games or DLC could be happening.
Omnistalgic
Member
yeah...but hindsight I guess. If Capcom had to do it over and not change much, I'd say a $40 digital only release followed by the game coming out next month with the story mode would have avoided a lot of the backlash. And as Ratchet is proving, there just might be something to that $40 price point.
TheCarrotKiller
Banned
[3DS] 104k
[PS4] 203k
[WIU] 47k
[XB1] 185k
[PS4] 203k
[WIU] 47k
[XB1] 185k
slavesnyder
Member
Unfortunately we will not get digital tracking, as platform holders have neither benefit nor interest, and forcing them by law is highly unrealistic. NPD has no grip here and will never have.
It's just sad, but true.
I remember you posting this already last (?) month. This is really useful and highly recommended.
CosmicQueso
Member
NPD has been undergoing a "digital leader panel" for going on 4 year now. Idea was to create a consortium of publishers that would agree to share that information, which NPD would then publish. It's run into delays and snags for a number of reasons.
But, the better explanation of why the sharing of digital information will never, ever, ever happen was explained by Pachter on the Pachter Factor on Apr 25.
About 8 minutes long, but essential viewing for salesGAF imo. Also goes into some history on NPD.
slavesnyder
Member
Just for laughs:
Uncharted 4 is #1 on Amazon for May, even higher than the usual PSN-cards.
Of course the month is still young and it shuld sink down a few ranks, but for reference:
I skipped through all months from now back to january 2015, and not once there was a game on the monthly top spot, no Fallout, no COD, no Division.
Helps that it's not split between PS and Xbox of course.
Uncharted 4 is #1 on Amazon for May, even higher than the usual PSN-cards.
Of course the month is still young and it shuld sink down a few ranks, but for reference:
I skipped through all months from now back to january 2015, and not once there was a game on the monthly top spot, no Fallout, no COD, no Division.
Helps that it's not split between PS and Xbox of course.
Oh shit, tomorrow is the day, almost forgot it. 
Anyway, i know this is April thread, but since all discuss about Uncharted, i made this graph.
First month NPD sales:
Anyway, i know this is April thread, but since all discuss about Uncharted, i made this graph.
First month NPD sales:
- Uncharted - 117,000
- Uncharted 2 - 537,000
- Uncharted 3 - 700,000
- Uncharted: Golden abiss - 93,000
- Uncharted: The Nathan Drake collection - 300,000
freefornow
Member
Does anyone know what the US PS3 install base was when UC3 was released?
19 million
freefornow
Member
Thanks. Interested to see UC4 first NPD.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
[3DS] 100k
[PS4] 220k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 170k
[PS4] 220k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 170k
EventHorizon
Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 165K
[3DS] 95K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 165K
[3DS] 95K
[WIU] 40K
It actually jumped to #1 all year for software on Amazon.
I sense a disturbance in SalesGaf for May