slavesnyder
Member
I think it will sell well. Just don't move consoles. Target group is Playstation hardcore that already have a console.
April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
ethomaz
Banned
There is no reason from what I understand.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Primethius
Banned
Yea, I don't expect it to move any hardware. But given the troubled history of its development, simply coming out is probably going to get the game more marketing then it ever would have gotten initially I think.
Well I bought uncharted 4 digitally and I have a prediction it will outsell halo 5 npd launch month sales lol. I will just blame myself if I turn out wrong
CosmicQueso
Member
Is the thinking that the price point helped with that digital ratio?
You started pre-selling digital very early with the theme offer, how was the pre-sell ramp? Did the strong reviews cause a hockey stick in the digital pre-sales at the tail?
I'm sure it's a combination of price point, reviews and offers, but what seemed to really move the needle?
DriftingSpirit
Member
StrongBlackVine
Banned
The people saying TLG will flop remind me of the talk about Ratchet & Clank being lucky to sell 100k for NPD.
Depends on when it releases. Honestly can't see it doing that well in North America if it's going to release during the Holiday season alongside all of the third party AAA multiplat games.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Well that is obvious. I think it should release in September or early October. November would be a death wish.
Yeah, before mid-October would definitely be best if it's going to release this year.
CosmicQueso
Member
But predicting <200k for TLG in month 1 =|= saying it will "flop".
That's just the ballpark market opportunity for this kind of game in the 2016 US packaged market.
Sales for games outside of the top 3 aren't generally much bigger than that.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Mhm, I think September would be the sweet spot. Anything after that is "welp" territory.
Nightengale
Member
Rumour source?
DriftingSpirit
Member
I just want TLG to come out more than anything else lol. Giving it a second thought, early October could work for TLG.
spatenfloot
Member
So there are no more interesting months until October?
ethomaz
Banned
For big releases? After May (U4) I guess September is the next with FFXV.
June is E3 with possible price cuts, new machines and new releases/dates.
slavesnyder
Member
No Man's Sky should be interesting, too.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Quite interesting.
ethomaz
Banned
DriftingSpirit
Member
It seems July and August will be cooldown months.
SFV - February
MLB - March
Ratchet and Clank - April
Uncharted 4 - May
No Man's Sky - June
FFXV - September
TLG - October?
SFV - February
MLB - March
Ratchet and Clank - April
Uncharted 4 - May
No Man's Sky - June
FFXV - September
TLG - October?
Napalm_Frank
Member
I don't think it will happen as early but it's not entirely impossible for Xbox/PS4 to get a price cut at E3 if they announce Neo/Xbox 1.5 and/or slim models. But would die shrinks even be probable before holidays?
ethomaz
Banned
I believe Xbone $299 is a given for E3 already... I will be surprised if it doesn't happen.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
archnemesis
Member
[3DS] 115k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 170k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 170k
DriftingSpirit
Member
Well, I had FFXV but that is effectively an exclusive for PS4.August has deus ex
Editops your talking exclusives looking at that list
You're right about Deus Ex though. I forgot about that.
Sorry, i know this is OT, but i can't resist to post this LMFAO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kffacxfA7G4&list=PLirAqAtl_h2o1ism1dr5SbvB8Mf7Ve6Aa&index=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kffacxfA7G4&list=PLirAqAtl_h2o1ism1dr5SbvB8Mf7Ve6Aa&index=1
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Might as well count ffxv and kingdom hearts 3 as exclusive lolWell, I had FFXV but that is effectively an exclusive for PS4.
You're right about Deus Ex though. I forgot about that.
Well since were counting deus ex now.. Don't forget the biggest hit of the gen coming to retail this summer. The big game that our children and our children's children will be playing for ages...
Rocket league
Sangetsu-II
Member
If they make a NMS PS4 bundle, it's free money for Sony. Those shits would sell like crazy just with hype
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Should've happened but I don't think it will. If it was it would be announced already right? I guess e3 but that only leaves it a week before release
lucky to sell 100k units is not equal to predicting <200k units
i think 200k would be the minimum it would sell and it could go up to 300k or more depending on reviews, hype, promotion and timing of release.
I think The Last Guardian NPD performance will depend on how strong it is as a single player experience, price and bundling. I mean, if games like The Order and Tomb Raider struggle to push 200K (and add Quantum Break to this list later) what business does TLG have beating out these, more marketable and casual-friendly titles?
The only way it does this is through heavy bundling or if it is priced like Ratchet and comes out to the universal praise that game received. Maybe if it turns out to be a sprawling 30 hour epic, to rival all of these open world RPG lite games, but that isn't what they're making.
I say this as someone really excited for the game. The market just isn't the same as it was in 2006-7 where a quirky single player game could perform reasonably well as a packaged product at retail.
The only way it does this is through heavy bundling or if it is priced like Ratchet and comes out to the universal praise that game received. Maybe if it turns out to be a sprawling 30 hour epic, to rival all of these open world RPG lite games, but that isn't what they're making.
I say this as someone really excited for the game. The market just isn't the same as it was in 2006-7 where a quirky single player game could perform reasonably well as a packaged product at retail.
theprodigy
Member
[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 175k
[3DS] 90k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 175k
[3DS] 90k
[WIU] 40k
CosmicQueso
Member
lucky to sell 100k units is not equal to predicting <200k units
i think 200k would be the minimum it would sell and it could go up to 300k or more depending on reviews, hype, promotion and timing of release.
Neither are saying that "TLG will bomb".
Weird when sales threads get emotional. Saying that 100k or 200k or 300k could be the sales thresholds doesn't mean anyone's predicting a "bomb" or "failure".
harrisk954
Member
Remember, PSVR is also releasing on October!
(And the rumored PS4K possibly toward end of year, as well!)
StrongBlackVine
Banned
100k for a major first party game is a bomba no matter how you frame it.
ethomaz
Banned
Less than 200k at launch for me is bomb... not just me because I read lot of bomb to SFV, Tomb Raider, etc.
TLG < 200k will be terrible.
PanicFreak
Member
Has there been an update on Halo 5's sales? Just wondering.
Primethius
Banned
Assuming it's good and gets good reviews (the important thing here), why wouldn't it do somewhat decent (>200k)?
It's had troubled development which gives it more spotlight then your typical IP. With that said, I expect Japan and Asia to brunt the vast amount of sales.
perfectchaos007
Member
[3DS] 160K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 53K
[XB1] 200K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 53K
[XB1] 200K