April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th

Why would TLG do good? Last I checked it isn't part of a popular IP or genre, and while its developer is well liked, it's not nearly enough to give it a big boost. Internet hype could help it chart, but I'm not aware of any particular reason it would do great.
The HD Collection did 93k first NPD month... why expect a new main title do less than 200k?
 
Has there been an update on Halo 5's sales? Just wondering.

creamsugar had them last month but I couldn't find the post.

H ~ 1699
FM ~ 451
GOWU ~ 371
ROTTR ~ 345
RR ~ 239
SOD ~ 81

BB ~ 754
MLB ~ 626
1886 ~ 357
UD ~ 330
U ~ 259
GOW3R ~ 162
TU ~ 24

As of December 2015 it was at 1.7 Million. I believe it hit 2 Million last month when he posted the numbers.

[3DS] 140K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 43K
[XB1] 170K
 
[3DS] 120k
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 200K
 
The HD Collection did 93k first NPD month... why expect a new main title do less than 200k?

I don't have numbers for the first month of ICO, but after 9 months it was still only at 127k. Shadow of the Colossus opened at 94k and the HD collection opened at 78k. These are not games that are expected to sell a lot.

And to put expectations too high, would just be dishonest on your part. Putting unrealistic expectations on a game is a common tactic used by people to try to claim "bomba" or other inflammatory remarks.
 
Competition is good though.

Never said it wasn't. Their narrow definition of what competition entails is what's in question.

Snyder explained with far more detail and eloquence than I was able to:

This statement is, of course, 100% true, but often misused on Gaf.

Without competition, there would be a monopoly with all the riscs of becoming lazy, arrogant or exploiting. Where there is no alternative to your product, you can dictate the rules as you like or relax on your unchallenged position. Consumers will have to buy your stuff anyway.

The statement "Xbox has to sell well because competition is good" is a sign that someone doesn't understand jack. Or doesn't want to.
Xbox is not selling well because of competition. It's not against the rule, but the logical conclusion of it. There are alternatives on the market (aka competition) that seem to offer better value in the eyes of the consumer. He decides. That's not unfair, it's just consequent. If MS doesn't want or isn't able to find ways to make if more appealing it's their problem, not ours.
Sony had big trouble with PS3 because there was the 360. They took notes and turned around the PS3 as far as possible by changing price, message and offering games and services like PS+ that led to better reception of their product.

If MS left the market and Nintendo kept on producing freak stuff, Sony would be the only huge mass market video console manufacturer. That would be bad because there would be no competition. On the other hand we don't know if someone else would step in directly, or if alternatives still would challenge Sony to stay busy and consumer-friendly. Playstation's (and Xbox's) opponents are not only consoles, but gaming platforms in general (AppleTV, SteamBox, Tablets, PC, whatever).
This is the same situation as for the NintendoDS, where the biggest challenge doesn't come from the Vita (haha), but from smartphones. If Nintendo finds a way to stay relevant for portable gaming and offer something where experience, price and convenience please the market they will be fine. If not, they will have a problem (they already have).

So: Competition is good, but no product should be mourned just because it adds to the number of market participants.

so yea what Snyder said haha. The lower sales performance of XB1 is the result of competition the idea that it should be successful just for the sake of artificial competition is ridiculous especially when there are plenty pf other very real competitors for both parties in today's world.


Bit of a false assumption in there. Nintendo appealed (past tense) to a different market than either box with the Wii, but there's no evidence to believe that it can bring that market back to Consoles or dedicated handhelds again.

And, if Nintendo does actually succeed, it's a growth opportunity for Nintendo, and not necessarily the rest of the industry.

At this point, Nintendo's presence in the video game space is that of a niche player really. Which is fine, but certainly not likely to be a significant market mover like it has been in the past.

But maybe I'm wrong.

Well I don't disagree that Nintendo's market is its own special bubble and has remarkably little cross over with the rest of the gaming sphere but I also think they are invaluable for fostering younger audiences into dedicated gaming spaces.

Their failure with the WiiU means that there are that many more kids who will only be gaming on smart devices and tablets. Without a healthy Nintendo to usher in the next generation of core dedicated systems gamers what is already a law the decline will increase and further expedite the end of dedicated HW. At least that's the way I see it.

So, to me at least, their success is incredibly important to the future of the industry because they literally help create each new generation of gamers. Without a strong Nintendo offering an appealing product we will see fewer and fewer younger audiences playing on consoles.


I don't have numbers for the first month of ICO, but after 9 months it was still only at 127k. Shadow of the Colossus opened at 94k and the HD collection opened at 78k. These are not games that are expected to sell a lot.

And to put expectations too high, would just be dishonest on your part. Putting unrealistic expectations on a game is a common tactic used by people to try to claim "bomba" or other inflammatory remarks.

You're right they aren't expected to sell a lot but they are expected be fantastic and inspirational which is why so many greats in the industry cite them as personal inspiration. The way I see it Ueda games are essentially art house projects. Nobody expects money to be made just that something truly unique would be made for the benefit of everyone who has the privilege of experiencing it. I imagine Journey was a project whose development had a similar philosophy behind it.

TLDR: It never intended to be a massive AAA blockbuster only something truly special and on that I have no doubt it will deliver.


[PS4]220K
[3DS]50K
[WIIU]15K
[XB1]110K

Errrrm well that's certainly pessimistic for everyone except Sony. Any particular reason you are predicting such an incredibly sharp MoM decline for WiiU, 3DS and especially XB1 in light of its promotions this month?

P.S.: Hello Rex, nice to see you back.

Hi Snyder! Thanks :D
 
I don't have numbers for the first month of ICO, but after 9 months it was still only at 127k. Shadow of the Colossus opened at 94k and the HD collection opened at 78k. These are not games that are expected to sell a lot.

And to put expectations too high, would just be dishonest on your part. Putting unrealistic expectations on a game is a common tactic used by people to try to claim "bomba" or other inflammatory remarks.
Where you got 78k for HD Collection? Here in GAF I found 92k in September 2011 NPD thread.

If collection did near 100k then a main title over 200k is a safe bet.

I will hold my bold prediction... > 400k.

Edit - ICO Collection numbers "boy&girl + boy&horse HD 92k".
 
Never said it wasn't. Their narrow definition of what competition entails is what's in question.

Snyder explained with far more detail and eloquence than I was able to:



so yea what Snyder said haha. The lower erfpmabce of XB1 is the result of competition the idea that it should be successful just for the sake of artificial competition is ridiculous especially when there are plenty pf other very real competitors for both parties in today's world.




Well I don't disagree that Nintendo's market is its own special bubble and has remarkably little cross over with the rest of the gaming sphere but I also think they are invaluable for fostering younger audiences into dedicated gaming spaces.

Their failure with the WiiU means that there are that many more kids who will only be gaming on smart devices and tablets. Without a healthy Nintendo to usher in the next generation of core dedicated systems gamers what is already a law the decline will increase and further expedite the end of dedicated HW. At least that's the way I see it.

So, to me at least, their success is incredibly important to the future of the industry because they literally help create each new generation of gamers. Without a strong Nintendo offering an appealing product we will see fewer and fewer younger audiences playing on consoles.




You're right they aren't expected to sell a lot but they are expected be fantastic and inspirational which is why so many greats in the industry cite them as personal inspiration. The way I see it Ueda games are essentially art house projects. Nobody expects money to be made just that something truly unique would be made for the benefit of everyone who has the privilege of experiencing it. I imagine Journey was a project whose development had a similar philosophy behind it.

TLDR: It never intended to be a massive AAA blockbuster only something truly special and on that I have no doubt it will deliver.




Errrrm well that's certainly pessimistic for everyone except Sony. Any particular reason you are predicting such an incredibly sharp MoM decline for WiiU, 3DS and especially XB1 in light of its promotions this month?



Hi Snyder! Thanks :D

No one welcomed ME back.......
 
No one welcomed ME back.......

Well I mean

anigif_enhanced-14873-1413852515-9.gif


dont be daft bro you never really left ;)
 
Their failure with the WiiU means that there are that many more kids who will only be gaming on smart devices and tablets. Without a healthy Nintendo to usher in the next generation of core dedicated systems gamers what is already a law the decline will increase and further expedite the end of dedicated HW. At least that's the way I see it.

So, to me at least, their success is incredibly important to the future of the industry because they literally help create each new generation of gamers. Without a strong Nintendo offering an appealing product we will see fewer and fewer younger audiences playing on consoles.

I dunno... kids leaving elementary school this year have grown up in a world where Nintendo isn't a big deal to kids. Data I've looked at with kid play patterns suggests that this transition you describe has already happened.

Nintendo would first have to re-establish itself with kids, and why would kids move back?

Hey, it would be great if Nintendo could reacquire that kid base, but they've lost that ground. Regaining it will be incredibly difficult. And if Nintendo is serious about its mobile offerings, they might, in a way, start fighting themselves. Unless the idea is that NIN mobile will transition kids into Nintendo HW which then transitions into other consoles/PC later.

I hear what you're saying, but I just think the transition has already taken place. Whatever the case, all these delays to the NX sure aren't helping.
 
Hey, I was gone for, like, over two weeks bruh.

It was meant in a "because you were always in our hearts" way. Besides I was still banned when you got back soooo it ain't on me man.

I dunno... kids leaving elementary school this year have grown up in a world where Nintendo isn't a big deal to kids. Data I've looked at with kid play patterns suggests that this transition you describe has already happened.

Nintendo would first have to re-establish itself with kids, and why would kids move back?

Hey, it would be great if Nintendo could reacquire that kid base, but they've lost that ground. Regaining it will be incredibly difficult. And if Nintendo is serious about its mobile offerings, they might, in a way, start fighting themselves. Unless the idea is that NIN mobile will transition kids into Nintendo HW which then transitions into other consoles/PC later.

I hear what you're saying, but I just think the transition has already taken place. Whatever the case, all these delays to the NX sure aren't helping.

Maybe you're right. I'm not exactly hip with the kids these days what with being Cretaceous and all so it could very well be. You certainly can't argue with the success of Minecraft and other such software. I guess I'm just hoping they can regain that lost ground as the future of dedicated gaming HW is bleak w/o it.

Y'all should stop getting yourselves banned.

Believe it or not there was a prolonged period of time where I had never been banned. Seems much harder now. I've concluded the only true safe posting method these days is abstinence which is why I will henceforth be avoiding those seductively dangerous threads.
 
I guess I'm just hoping they can regain that lost ground as the future of dedicated gaming HW is bleak w/o it.

Yes indeed. Basically the console market as it is right now is as good as it will get for the short to mid term future unless something positive happens with mass market adoption.
 
This was the last time he give us Halo numbers...

Thanks. I hope we can get an update this month and I know it certainly won't come from Microsoft!

Believe it or not there was a prolonged period of time where I had never been banned. Seems much harder now. I've concluded the only true safe posting method these days is abstinence which is why I will henceforth be avoiding those seductively dangerous threads.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1216177

:-)
 
Yes indeed. Basically the console market as it is right now is as good as it will get for the short to mid term future unless something positive happens with mass market adoption.

Currently I'm crossing my fingers that a shift to streaming will help reinvigorate the market. Here's hoping the necessary infrastructure is both prevalent and cheap enough to make the transition easier before the market makes that transition necessary. Unfortunately with the poss poor policies regarding fiber and ISPs in the US it's not exactly looking encouraging.

Shit now I've gone and made myself depressed. Excuse me while I go drown my sorrows in a giant bowl of matcha ice cream and cry myself to sleep.
 
Believe it or not there was a prolonged period of time where I had never been banned. Seems much harder now. I've concluded the only true safe posting method these days is abstinence which is why I will henceforth be avoiding those seductively dangerous threads.
Should've just replied with this
as5HjpJ.gif


instead of making it sound....dirty.
 
So any updates on how DSW3, Quantum, and Ratchet are doing? Lots of excitement for this months NPD. It'll be an epic close finish.
 
U4 is now the first game in the Amazon USA yearly chart. Can't wait to see if it will do better than 1 ML in his first month in US.
 
U4 is now the first game in the Amazon USA yearly chart. Can't wait to see if it will do better than 1 ML in his first month in US.

It's been a steady climb. I'm guessing it might do around 1.1 million. I thinks that's around 400K increase from UC3, which is not bad at all.
I'm wondering if it will actually be #1 in May or will Overwatch beat it?
 

That's mean. You're a meany.

UC4 1 million in one month in America?

That's quite a prediction. Doesn't Uncharted usually do better outside the US?

Going by the critical response and Sony's statements on demand I think it might actually debut with more sales than Halo 5 in the US which is just crazy. Never in a million years would I have thought that possible prior to Halo 5's launch.

At least you weren't permanently "juniored". There's no coming back from that indignity.

giphy.gif
 
I spent six months on Junior duty, was a dreary, dreadful time where I couldn't make threads about Taco Bell.

Never again.

Also:

[PS4] 207K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 90k
[WIU] 37k
 
Why would someone buy a second Xbox One at all? You're talking an very, very small % of households that would own 2 of any particular console.
.



Who knows, I was just responding to someone else's post ;) He was the one who brought up that the Gears Bundle this Fall would sell to current and new Xbox One owners. I was just saying I would assume somebody would hold out for an upgraded Xbox One over buying a second standard system just because of a Gears 4 Bundle (even with a new colored console). At least if an upgraded Xbox One is revealed to come later.
 
U4 is now the first game in the Amazon USA yearly chart. Can't wait to see if it will do better than 1 ML in his first month in US.

I know people say dont look at Amazon charts for game sales. But I always find the yearly sales charts to be, well, interesting at least just out of curiosity.


I remember there was a bit of a debate on here about the whole Ratchet and Clank vs Quantum Break sales for April's NPD. I know this has even made some of your "bold predictions" for April. I am definitely all behind Ratchet and Clank in April's NPD. But when you look at it in the 2016 Amazon Charts vs Quantum Break, its pretty crazy really. Ratchet and Clank must be selling very very well, as it should, its awesome.


For example, Ratchet and Clank is #16 in Video Game sales for all of 2016, and Quantum Break is #66.
 
Nothing wrong with being a junior. Keeps you from making April fools threads.

100k between the big boys again...feeling lucky this time.
 
Nothing wrong with being a junior. Keeps you from making April fools threads.

100k between the big boys again...feeling lucky this time.
The thing I worry about is--because I look at all the people who are junior members, and they invest their time and their money in NeoGaf, and, as millions of people obviously are junior members, I want them to feel like they're first-class, because they are.
 
I fought the fine fight there...But got ridiculed for using the word “decent”...lol Never again...

Also, UC4 is going to murder.

Yeah, I have gotten sucked into these threads from time to time, but basically any sales thread/discussion regarding any big-name console exclusive is just a way for fanboys to try to "discreetly" fan the fires:

Halo 5
Rise of the Tomb Raider
SFV


I agree with what you are saying regarding SFV. It has sold decently to date. It didn't meet their expectations/goals, but that doesn't mean it's a flaming pile of doo-doo.
 
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