April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Gotta admit I was not expecting DIsney to be the first publisher to bail on Toys to Life. I mean the writing has been on the wall for a while as the market is just not big enough to support all the existing TTL platforms but with Disney's IPs I did not expect to see them being the first to bow out. Also sad to see they are shuttering all in house development.
Do y'all foresee Warner Bros. following suit as well? I always figured theyd be the first. The whole TTL model just seemed incredibly exploitative to me so I'm not terribly fussed but still its an area where these companies have invested significant amounts of money so no doubt a decline will have a noticeable impact on profits.
Retailer insight and rankings info combined with lack of buzz and sales PR. Basically there is currently no existing information to imply that QB had any effect whatsoever on HW sales. All the information we currently have points to it not moving the needle much if at all.
I'm not sure a lower price point would've been the right call for SFV but i do think an early digital only release could have worked. Especially if it was labeled as early access. That way it wouldnt have received the colossal backlash it did about content on release. It would also have helped spread the word about their content release program and allowed them to draw a line in the sand as to when most of their major features were added to begin their retail release. I really think Capcom's desperation for Fiscal Year profits screwed the pooch so to speak. They squandered a lot of consumer good will with their sparse release and it will be really difficult to recover that with such a slow drip feed of scheduled content.
At this point I think the wisest course of action would be to release a digital only Free to Play version with a model similar to Killer Instinct sometime this fall/winter. I think that could work really well for them.
Yea I am aware of the difficulties/complications. Its just a rather large gap when it comes to sales discussion and its only growing larger. I continue to hope that it will become large enough that the lack of info will force a standard reporting compliance of some kind. Its just becoming way too important to dismiss/ignore.
I think Japan is a bit different as they have corporate laws about reporting sales of all kinds including digital goods to investors and investment firms so the information is readily available for interested parties. I could be mistaken though.
The English teacher in me just about had a conniption fit at you spelling abyss as "abiss" not once but TWICE... Whyyyyyyyyyyy?!?!?!
I actually think UC4 is going to blow the previous series best out of the water. Given the momentum the platform has and the consumer attention/favor Naughty Dog has gained following the The Last of Us it stands to reason it will likely be the best selling ND title yet. The critical acclaim its getting only helps cement that. It very well could outsell Halo 5s debut despite the FPS genre being the cat's meow these days.
That said, despite whatever sales success it might have I can't see its multiplayer gaining much traction. Its just not why most buy ND games and it doesn't seem like there is much interest at all. So I think sure Halo 5 will have better legs thanks to the appeal of its multiplayer when all is said and done.
Do y'all foresee Warner Bros. following suit as well? I always figured theyd be the first. The whole TTL model just seemed incredibly exploitative to me so I'm not terribly fussed but still its an area where these companies have invested significant amounts of money so no doubt a decline will have a noticeable impact on profits.
Retailer insight and rankings info combined with lack of buzz and sales PR. Basically there is currently no existing information to imply that QB had any effect whatsoever on HW sales. All the information we currently have points to it not moving the needle much if at all.
I'm not sure a lower price point would've been the right call for SFV but i do think an early digital only release could have worked. Especially if it was labeled as early access. That way it wouldnt have received the colossal backlash it did about content on release. It would also have helped spread the word about their content release program and allowed them to draw a line in the sand as to when most of their major features were added to begin their retail release. I really think Capcom's desperation for Fiscal Year profits screwed the pooch so to speak. They squandered a lot of consumer good will with their sparse release and it will be really difficult to recover that with such a slow drip feed of scheduled content.
At this point I think the wisest course of action would be to release a digital only Free to Play version with a model similar to Killer Instinct sometime this fall/winter. I think that could work really well for them.
Yea I am aware of the difficulties/complications. Its just a rather large gap when it comes to sales discussion and its only growing larger. I continue to hope that it will become large enough that the lack of info will force a standard reporting compliance of some kind. Its just becoming way too important to dismiss/ignore.
I think Japan is a bit different as they have corporate laws about reporting sales of all kinds including digital goods to investors and investment firms so the information is readily available for interested parties. I could be mistaken though.
Oh shit, tomorrow is the day, almost forgot it.
Anyway, i know this is April thread, but since all discuss about Uncharted, i made this graph.
First month NPD sales:
- Uncharted - 117,000
- Uncharted 2 - 537,000
- Uncharted 3 - 700,000
- Uncharted: Golden abiss - 93,000
- Uncharted: The Nathan Drake collection - 300,000
The English teacher in me just about had a conniption fit at you spelling abyss as "abiss" not once but TWICE... Whyyyyyyyyyyy?!?!?!
I actually think UC4 is going to blow the previous series best out of the water. Given the momentum the platform has and the consumer attention/favor Naughty Dog has gained following the The Last of Us it stands to reason it will likely be the best selling ND title yet. The critical acclaim its getting only helps cement that. It very well could outsell Halo 5s debut despite the FPS genre being the cat's meow these days.
That said, despite whatever sales success it might have I can't see its multiplayer gaining much traction. Its just not why most buy ND games and it doesn't seem like there is much interest at all. So I think sure Halo 5 will have better legs thanks to the appeal of its multiplayer when all is said and done.
First post in the thread tells you.
CosmicQueso
Member
Reporting compliance is done through company earnings reports for public companies. For private companies, no sales data can be forced for public disclosure.
Just is what it is.
Just is what it is.
Looks like Dark Souls 3 has sold in ~1.5 million in North America so far
Sources
http://gematsu.com/2016/05/dark-sou...n-shipments-dark-souls-series-tops-13-million
http://bandainamcoent.co.jp/corporate/press/release/62/pdf/20160511.pdf
Quite impressive. Bodes really well for April's NPD.
Sources
http://gematsu.com/2016/05/dark-sou...n-shipments-dark-souls-series-tops-13-million
http://bandainamcoent.co.jp/corporate/press/release/62/pdf/20160511.pdf
Quite impressive. Bodes really well for April's NPD.
slavesnyder
Member
Ah well that explains that. I wonder what the etymology of abyss is. Maybe it's one f those words English inherited from Latin. Would explain the close similarity with Italian.
LordRaptor
Member
We have far more insight into physical there too, in fairness.
Welfare
Member
2DS to receive a price cut to $79.99 on May 20th. Will come with a download code for Mario Kart 7.
http://www.polygon.com/2016/5/11/11...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
http://www.polygon.com/2016/5/11/11...t=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
What Famitu do is just surveys, they don't have actual data. Doesn't seem much reliable.
That's a really a nice price! Wonder how 3DS will sell compared to last year in May/June.
JUST FOR YOU KNOW REX NOVIS.
I'm just back from shool, and today i had an English oral test.
Vote: 7/10
70% right means 30% wrong Ryng. Stop being wrong! I expect better from you.
70% right means 30% wrong Ryng. Stop being wrong! I expect better from you.
If only i have an oral test about Splatoon sales, damn it could be 11/10.
If only i have an oral test about Splatoon sales, damn it could be 11/10.
This actually made me laugh out loud. Well played Ryng.
PanicFreak
Member
So more than 50 percent of Madden's sales on Xbox One and PS4. I wonder what that means for other franchises.
Our estimates are going to have to include at least 30 percent digital now.
Our estimates are going to have to include at least 30 percent digital now.
No the info is that more than 50% of maddens sales on PS4/XB1 were digital which is MUCH bigger news. That's a massive increase from the industry average. I wonder why that's the case. What is it about Madden that would lead to such a disproportionate digital skew? Is the iterative yearly release schedule of the game to blame here? Certainly raises some interesting questions.
Top digital sellers on the PS4
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016/05/11/playstation-store-april-2016s-top-downloads/
WTF, Bayonetta in TOP 10 on PS3?
slavesnyder
Member
Guess it was discounted and well-advertised on the front page.
Forget that....GTA 5 in 7th place? That game is still expensive today. Would be cheaper to get it physical.
Sangetsu-II
Member
CosmicQueso
Member
They have to be including EA Access downloads. I don't believe the numbers at all otherwise.
Welfare
Member
Is 28 million for Uncharted a new number? http://www.foxbusiness.com/features...stations-uncharted-4-poised-to-chart-top.html
Oh, nvm. I see the thread.
Oh, nvm. I see the thread.
Looks like some retailers are starting to offer a free copy of Uncharted 4 with purchase of the Nathan Drake Collection bundle at $350. Could Sony have overshipped?
But EA Access downloads aren't sales though. That would be incredibly misleading if they did. AFAIK EA doesnt have a reputation for misleading PR like certain other companies so I'd be more willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.
So GTAV on its own has outsold the entire Uncharted series... wowzers. Kinda puts things in perspective.
I wonder how many copies the Halo franchise has sold at this point. I assume somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 million. I'm sure Uncharted still has a LONG way to go.
But EA Access downloads aren't sales though. That would be incredibly misleading if they did. AFAIK EA doesnt have a reputation for misleading PR like certain other companies so I'd be more willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.
So GTAV on its own has outsold the entire Uncharted series... wowzers. Kinda puts things in perspective.
I wonder how many copies the Halo franchise has sold at this point. I assume somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 million. I'm sure Uncharted still has a LONG way to go.
Well if you're right about the Halo franchise, GTA V has outsold it too.
GTA V has outsold many things you know >.>
Welfare
Member
Might actually be to clear ND collection bundles.
EA Access isn't just the vault. It also gives a 10% discount on all EA purchases. I don't pay attention much to XBL deals, but that 10% off plus a really good Live deal would push digital sales.
Also one isn't forced to download every vault game, so EA wouldn't be taking all Access subscribers and adding them into Madden's total.
Halo passed 65 million back in June 2015 (bottom of page) http://news.xbox.com/2015/07/02/xbox-xbox-at-sdcc-2015/
CosmicQueso
Member
Did he ever say "sales"? In any case, they run on an ARPU model with the mtx, and they get rev on the Access sub.
Talking phys:dig split when those factors are taken into account makes the difference between a flat sale versus a subscription download basically meaningless.
As an investor, I wouldn't see that being misleading or dishonest, just wish they would clarify.
Not Super Mario or Pokèmon,
not only that, but even all GTA combined they still not beat Pokèmon and Mario. 3rdamention
Member
Oh Come on Rex! That is a bit of a stretch to think that is why they are giving away the game with a console purchase, dont you think?>
There are a bunch of reasons why they could be giving the game away (I still haven't seen this deal anywhere personally). Gotta clear the Uncharted Collection Bundles out with E3 around the corner and maybe some new bundles to be announced. Sony is trying to bank on the popularity of Uncharted 4 by using it to help move the older bundle or consoles. This could be a counter to all the Xbox One deals with Gift Cards or Free Games and/or Price Cuts. Its a pretty slow month, so whatever it takes I assume to try and entice people to get a new console.
I assume you are joking, but I dont see Sony saying "Oh shit, Uncharted has been out for like 2 days, we overshipped! Give it away!"
You are joking right? Unless you are saying they overshipped the Uncharted Collection Bundle?
Haha this is very true. Still though. Kinda crazy to think think a single entry in the GTA series has outsold entire blockbuster franchises.
Hmm you could be right. Are there an overabundance of those bundles around? I know the main SKU for PS4 these days is the CoD bundle. It seems to be driving the most sales by a massive margin.
I would still count the discounted sales as sales though. I dont think theres any sense arguing those sales shouldn't count because of a subscription based discount.Itd be like arguing any software sales during PS+ Flash sales shouldnt count.
Good point about the downloads not being forced though I still think itd be pretty misleading for them to count EA Access downloads as part of a digital sales split for a game though.
Ah so significantly more than I thought. So a bit more than 2x the Uncharted franchise LTD prior to UC4. Cheers for the figures.
Good point. Hadn't thought about it that way but I could see how post purchase monetization via Microtransactions or DLC would lessen the importance of up front revenue. Makes sense.
In regards to did they say "sales" I thought they had but looking back on the statement they actually just specified it as a "figure" which I guess implies sales but perhaps I was naive to think that.
I wasn't joking it was a serious question and at the moment it was the first reason that came to mind for offering the game with bundle like that. I was just surprised to see them offering a free bundle promotion for the game so soon after launch. That said there was a reason it was phrased as a question and not a declarative statement. I wasnt trying to say that this was a the case I was asking could this be a possible reason for the promotion and as you and others have brought up there are some other reasons that could explain the bundling.
I would be very surprised if the NDC Bundle was languishing around to the point that they would want to strike up a promotion in order to push sales. We have had no information that would imply that could be the case. But I could see it being a promotional response to MS' promotion.
spatenfloot
Member
Maybe they just want to sell more bundles.
Welfare
Member
I'm not saying those wouldn't count. I'm pointing out that EA Access would help explain higher digital sales through those discounts.
slavesnyder
Member
Exactly.
I guess that there are still a lot of Uncharted collection bundles out there, already half a year old, and they are slowly starting to smell funny. Other, fresher bundles arrived and there will be more of them. Is there a No Man's Bundle announced? If not - why?
So, if I want to clean stock of the Uncharted Collection bundles as a retailer, this would be the easiest decision ever, with a clean and simple line of argument for customers and vendors.
"You are interested in the Uncharted 4-Bundle? Hey, I got an even better, special offer pour vous monsieur: You got the PS4 console, Uncharted 4 .... PLUS Uncharted 1, 2 aaaand 3 for the same price!
You say that's pure madness? I know, but that's how we work here. Friendo."
Battleborn sales will be abismal compared to Overwatch, but 4:1 is too tough. I'd say 3:1.
demigod
Member
..... You so did that on purpose. -_-
Abysmal dammit.With a Y!
Do y'all think Battleborn will outsell Homefront: The Revolution? Its like a sales limbo battle "How low can they go?" I'm guessing it wont because in the game of hero shooters you either win or die and I expect Battleborn to experience a gruesome death at the hands of Overwatch whereas Homefront is at least a markedly different genre with a different market to appeal to.
Haha yea. Actually you're probably right about Homefront. I had actually forgotten it was even releasing this month until that early impressions thread popped up. Its crazy how little awareness there is around the game.
So you think Overwatch will sell more than 4.5x Battleborn eh? Yea I think it'll be somewhere around there. It's gonna be a slaughter.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
PSN caps the number at 50 when looking at active streams on the home screen. Uncharted 4, Destiny, and Black Ops 3 all say 50 for me. Battleborn will have a pretty soft launch, but the 50 stream metric is useless for that conclusion.
Edit: Unless they are looking on Twitch itself?
That was me. It doesn't cap it in the Live on PlayStation app and that's where the numbers are from. You can sort by game and it ranks them in order of popularity. Overwatch was 7th with 392 streams and Battleborn was 29th with 51 streams. I stress again this was on the day Battleborn released which is usually peak time for active streams.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
And because it looks like a bad game.
spatenfloot
Member
Y u no spel, slavesnyder?
CosmicQueso
Member
Rex! Your formatting! Ahhhh!
Thanks! sonycowboy mentioned what NPD stood for several years ago, so that was one thing we already knew. Even did a prediction thread one month with the unabbreviated name, but turnout was very low probably due to no one recognizing what the thread was about!
Thanks! sonycowboy mentioned what NPD stood for several years ago, so that was one thing we already knew. Even did a prediction thread one month with the unabbreviated name, but turnout was very low probably due to no one recognizing what the thread was about!
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Overwatch will outsell Battleborn by a factor of atleast 3.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Soon. Those with patience will be rewarded with great MAU.