Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?

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Jimbob Smalls said:
The shortage of labour in building is a myth. I work in it.
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I want to actually apologise then; I don't mean to downplay people's jobs and own experiences. Referendum aside, we ought to be able to respect people's opinions and listen, even if we disagree.

Having said that I'm looking to replace several doors in my home, I wish I could get it done for £35 to £40 let alone £10. And I live in London, so immigration should be helping me the most. Even looking now it's £48 for the first hour. And that is surprisingly low, last time I looked I was quoted near £200 for several doors.
 
Ashes said:
I want to actually apologise then; I don't mean to downplay people's jobs and own experiences. Referendum aside, we ought to be able to respect people's opinions and listen, even if we disagree.

Having said that I'm looking to replace several doors in my home, I wish I could get it done for £35 to £40 let alone £10. And I live in London, so immigration should be helping me the most. Even looking now it's £48 for the first hour. And that is surprisingly low, last time I looked I was quoted near £200 for several doors.
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London is an entirely different kettle of fish. Everyone has to deal with the same high cost of living you do.
 
Jimbob Smalls said:
There's no shortage of brickies, just bricks as a lot of the kilns were turned off in the crash.

Brickies etc all tend to be self employed as subbies you won't see their struggles in government employment figures. Nor are they protected by Labour laws.

There's no minimum wage for a subbies or working hours directive. If they are sick they don't get paid, simple as that. These are the guys who got hammered completely invisibly and discreetly to the public.
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See you're right; I'm left leaning, and this really does get my goat. But that's not EC though; that's a trend being allowed by this government.

And we should hold this government responsible. Left, right, or coalition, whatever government is in office needs to get off its backside to tackle this trend. It's just not fair, and deliberate employment law avoidance. We need to close this loophole regardless of this referendum.

Something similar is happening to couriers who are all supposedly self-employed, so they have no proper employment rights.
 
Trick_GSF said:
I keep seeing that leave is ahead and whatever. What is the actual story right now? It's making me nervous.
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Over the last 10 days or so Leave has taken a sizeable lead in the polls. I think everybody is now waiting to see whether Jo Cox's murder will have an effect on the numbers.
 
Chinner said:
Why do you think that? Polls indicated otherwise.
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A poll released on Saturday morning showed the remain campaign had pulled ahead on the final weekend.

The UK-wide BMG telephone poll for the Herald put support for remain at 46% and backing for leave on 43%, with 11% undecided or unwilling to say. Excluding this group, 52% were in favour of staying in the EU, with 48% backing Brexit. By using a series of questions to calculate the likely voting intention of people who say that they will vote but have yet to decide or do not want to say, BMG put the remain camp ahead on 53% compared to 47%. The survey of 1,064 voters was carried out between 10-15 June, before the fatal shooting and stabbing of Cox.

From the Guardian.

It's only one poll but i think/hope the tide has turned.
 
Trick_GSF said:
I keep seeing that leave is ahead and whatever. What is the actual story right now? It's making me nervous.
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Leave has been ahead by six or so points in the latest polls we have, but there is still a substantial undecided vote available, and the electoral realities of referenda suggests that those who are still undecided by this point will heavily favour conservatism and the status quo.

In addition, we don't yet have polls which might tells us what effect the awful events of the last few days might have upon the electorate. I'd be very surprised if they spurred on support for Leave, let's put it that way.
 
Trick_GSF said:
I keep seeing that leave is ahead and whatever. What is the actual story right now? It's making me nervous.
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Pretty much all pollsters are now showing a lead for Leave, varying between about one and six points. However, typically in referenda of this nature there is a swing towards the status quo on the day (see, for example, Quebec's independence referendum). The critical thing is whether Leave's lead will be enough to outbalance the swing back.
 
Just came back from Sweden, where I was invited to an Anglo-Sweden birthday celebration and I had never felt so ashamed of a potential Brexit. Everyone spoke English, spoke highly of Britain and were very accommodating. It's just really sad to see Britain trying to distance itself when Europe when Europe tries far harder to integrate us than one might think.
 
I've sensed a very subtle shift in the last day or two and it's unrelated to the Cox murder.

If I had to guess I imagine Remain will indeed win by the narrowest of margins, despite all polls indicating otherwise.

Ive read hundreds of opinion pieces and I've kinda fallen to a deadlock again - simply, I don't want to leave and the uncertainty that may bring (ignoring the more extreme fear mongering) yet I hate the idea of remaining in an EU that desperately needs to reform, which absolutely won't need to if we stay in.

This is shit.
 
was walking down my road, so an EU flag from aware. felt a rush of pride.. got closer noticed "OUT" written in the middle of the circle of stars... feels bad man.
 
it's going to be a total clusterfuck if remain wins now.

following a week of leave seeming to decisively win over the undecided voters and be heading towards victory (according to polling, at least), if the shooting is being seen as the turning point there will be even more calls for a re-do because the shooting "unfairly prejudiced the vote" and you "can't expect people to properly decide while they are grieving".
 
If I was British, I'd vote for Leave. Why? Because:

a.) I just wanna watch the world burn
b.) Only then will the EU finally start to reform its completely outdated models
c.) It's gonna be a time of change. Changes that should've been made years if not centuries ago.
 
Well the campaigns have been suspended, I think this murder will sway the referendum result to remain. Even if it's completely unrelated to the referendum, the optics look bad enough that I think it will make a significant impact on voting intentions.
 
Livedili said:
If I was British, I'd vote for Leave. Why? Because:

a.) I just wanna watch the world burn
b.) Only then will the EU finally start to reform its completely outdated models
c.) It's gonna be a time of change. Changes that should've been made years if not centuries ago.
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Centuries? The EU hasn't even been around for one.
 
Arksy said:
Well the campaigns have been suspended, I think this murder will sway the referendum result to leave. Even if it's completely unrelated to the referendum, the optics look bad enough that I think it will make a significant impact on voting intentions.
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1) It must assuredly is not completely unrelated to the referendum. A prominent member of Remain was murdered by a right-wing terrorist who wants "death to traitors" a week before the referendum.
2) You think that the gunning down of a well-respected MP is going to convince more people to vote AGAINST her beliefs?
 
Exterminieren said:
1) It must assuredly is not completely unrelated to the referendum. A prominent member of Remain was murdered by a right-wing terrorist who wants "death to traitors" a week before the referendum.
2) You think that the gunning down of a well-respected MP is going to convince more people to vote AGAINST her beliefs?
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Oops! I meant remain. Editing now.
 
liquidtmd said:
I've sensed a very subtle shift in the last day or two and it's unrelated to the Cox murder.

If I had to guess I imagine Remain will indeed win by the narrowest of margins, despite all polls indicating otherwise.

Ive read hundreds of opinion pieces and I've kinda fallen to a deadlock again - simply, I don't want to leave and the uncertainty that may bring (ignoring the more extreme fear mongering) yet I hate the idea of remaining in an EU that desperately needs to reform, which absolutely won't need to if we stay in.

This is shit.
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Livedili said:
If I was British, I'd vote for Leave. Why? Because:

a.) I just wanna watch the world burn
b.) Only then will the EU finally start to reform its completely outdated models
c.) It's gonna be a time of change. Changes that should've been made years if not centuries ago.
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Just out of curiosity. What reforms do you want to see? A lot of people I've spoken to say they want to, but when I ask what reforms they want they say "you know..", without an actual answer.

I want to see reforms as well! And I know what I do want changed, but I think the benefits of being in a Union far outweigh that, and I believe they can happen.

But I was just interested in hearing more.
 
Livedili said:
If I was British, I'd vote for Leave. Why? Because:

a.) I just wanna watch the world burn
b.) Only then will the EU finally start to reform its completely outdated models
c.) It's gonna be a time of change. Changes that should've been made years if not centuries ago.
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What outdated models need changing and what changes need making?
 
Whatever the result I hope the government sees this as a bit of a wake up call that the status quo isn't working.
Not going to hold my breath though.
 
jimbobsmells said:
Whatever the result I hope the government sees this as a bit of a wake up call that the status quo isn't working.
Not going to hold my breath though.
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I think Cameron's only just realising that consistently reducing complex issues to simple soundbites is biting a large chunk out of his arse.
 
Livedili said:
If I was British, I'd vote for Leave. Why? Because:

a.) I just wanna watch the world burn
b.) Only then will the EU finally start to reform its completely outdated models
c.) It's gonna be a time of change. Changes that should've been made years if not centuries ago.
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Seriously. What kind of childish stuff is this. Would you also vote in Trump if you were American to "watch the world burn"? Must be hell of nice to be in a position that you don't have to worry about being fucked over by an economic down turn. You're not living in a damn Batman movie.

It makes for a nice list on an internet forum, but in real life, people get hurt by this stuff and feel the consequences.

Can you give actual examples of the changes that should me mace centuries ago (what does this even mean, you know how much happens in that time, and that the EU is not even centuries old?). What are the outdated models and what kind of reform needs to be done about them?

If you have any answers to that, I'll be glad to hear it.
 
Empty said:
it's going to be a total clusterfuck if remain wins now.

following a week of leave seeming to decisively win over the undecided voters and be heading towards victory (according to polling, at least), if the shooting is being seen as the turning point there will be even more calls for a re-do because the shooting "unfairly prejudiced the vote" and you "can't expect people to properly decide while they are grieving".
Click to expand...

In almost every poll there has been a significant enough 'Don't Know' response for the result to go either way nationally. Anecdotally, the murder doesn't appear to be changing the minds of those that were already on the 'Leave' side.

If the murder changes anything, it might be that it slightly improves turnout of 'Remain' voters, but I can't see it having much of an impact beyond that. Both sides will continue to listen to their own propaganda, and the 'Don't Know's will likely split in favour of the status quo as normal.
 
I'm curious about the short and midterm political knock-on effects of a Remain vote.

Won't UKIP just pick up more votes from those who are disaffected by the result, basically further deteriorating the relationship with the EU? The remain voters are going to stay bound to their parties most likely, but with Labor being so ineffectual and the Tories in the midst of their own civil war, the most likely result I see is UKIP increasing its totals.
 
Tak3n said:
Petition getting a lot of attention on government website



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...oting-signatures-parliament-mps-a7088966.html
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I strongly sympathise with this sentiment, being opposed to referendums myself, but cancelling this at this time seems like an incredibly poor idea. I guarantee you it would do no favours to the tone of the public debate right now, plus you'd probably be making the next parliamentary election all about the EU anyway and have the same tone in that campaign as well. It seems best to just let the referendum go ahead and then deal with the result, regardless of what that result is.
 
Kabouter said:
I strongly sympathise with this sentiment, being opposed to referendums myself, but cancelling this at this time seems like an incredibly poor idea. I guarantee you it would do no favours to the tone of the public debate right now, plus you'd probably be making the next parliamentary election all about the EU anyway and have the same tone in that campaign as well. It seems best to just let the referendum go ahead and then deal with the result, regardless of what that result is.
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Agreed.
 
Vladimir Putin states David Cameron may have called EU referendum to 'blackmail Europe'

"There is a great problem with Brexit, why did he initiate this vote in the first place? Why did he do that? So he wanted to blackmail Europe or to scare someone, what was the goal if he was against?" Mr Putin said, according to the Press Association, on Friday night.

He denied suggestions that Russia would benefit from Britain's possible decision to leave the European Union.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...s-david-cameron-may-have-called-eu-referendu/
 
 
Tak3n said:
Petition getting a lot of attention on government website



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...oting-signatures-parliament-mps-a7088966.html
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This is absolutely pathetic, people have made a petition to complain about the fact they are being given a say in the future shape of their country.

As for the swing to remain because of events over the past few days. On reflection if people are going to let the tragic event sway them to remain then it is probable that person was not a solid "leave" anyway and would have voted "remain" in the end. It is one thing to tell a polling company you are voting to leave, but quite another to actually put an x down next to leave when it is crunch time.
 
CharmingCharlie said:
This is absolutely pathetic, people have made a petition to complain about the fact they are being given a say in the future shape of their country.
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It's not. Being against a referendum is a totally valid opinion.

Take Netherlands earlier with our referendum about Ukraine. Only 32% of people showed up. 60% of those were against. So now the opinion of not even 20% of people is creating a lot of problems with this. Is that fair?

We elect people to make those decisions, because then it is their job to be informed about these issues better and make an informed decision.
 
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