Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016

Did you vote for the side that is going to win?


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Keep seeing leavers talk up Corbyns immigration comments. But I am quite confused about who exactly was under the delusion we could cap migration within the EU. He commented in how we could reduce it (workers rights) by stopping the exploitation of labour but we all know a cap is not possible.

It's one of the main reasons we are having this referendum! The Leave campaign does not look to me to have set out the final days of campaigning as the focus in Corbyn stating what we already know suggests they have nothing of interest to say themselves.

Also the more they say the 300 Million claim the sillier they sound IMO
 
Some results from a current Bertelsmann study.
Via Süddeutsche Zeitung


Should the UK stay a member of the EU?
Yes / No / Don't know
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Would a Brexit have positive or negative effects on the EU?
Good for EU / Bad for EU / No change
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Should the EU integrate more or less?
More / less / equal
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Would you vote for your country to stay in the EU?
Should Stay / Should Leave
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Yep, this is also a good way to politely decline any party tellers outside the polling station who want to know which way you voted (although maybe there won't be any for this vote).

There never is anyone at mine early morning, it's great. Walk up with a coffee, in and out like nobodies business.
 
Sorry, I thought it was reasonably obvious. I'l edit it in.

Glad that I learned some German recently. It's a tough language to master, though :(

Anyway, thanks for the post. I am guessing that if the right wing of France (what's her name again?) gets voted in the near future we are going to have Frexit for another round, and it would be a nightmare for EU and her people.
 
There never is anyone at mine early morning, it's great. Walk up with a coffee, in and out like nobodies business.

Lucky you. There were two at my polling station for the Bristol mayoral elections, and they caught me off guard because they were actually inside the building, which I thought they weren't allowed to do! I thought they were poll clerks.


Glad that I learned some German recently. It's a tough language to master, though :(

Anyway, thanks for the post. I am guessing that if the right wing of France (what's her name again?) gets voted in the near future we are going to have Frexit for another round, and it would be a nightmare for EU and her people.

Yeah, I'm surprised at that 48/52. That's pretty much where the UK is right now. Italy's not much better too.
 
Glad that I learned some German recently. It's a tough language to master, though :(

Anyway, thanks for the post. I am guessing that if the right wing of France (what's her name again?) gets voted in the near future we are going to have Frexit for another round, and it would be a nightmare for EU and her people.

Marine le Pen of the Front National.
 
Anyway, thanks for the post. I am guessing that if the right wing of France (what's her name again?) gets voted in the near future we are going to have Frexit for another round, and it would be a nightmare for EU and her people.

The numbers are definitely not favourable to a Frexit. If 49% of the polled want closer integration and 52% want to stay.
 
Heh, newspaper reports saying that the borough I live in, Lambeth, is the most pro-EU in the country. Doesn't surprise me - we were also one of the few boroughs that votes for AV, and I haven't seen a single Brexit poster anywhere (lots of Remain though).
 
Lucky you. There were two at my polling station for the Bristol mayoral elections, and they caught me off guard because they were actually inside the building, which I thought they weren't allowed to do! I thought they were poll clerks.


They're not, the gits. They normally get around it at mine by waiting in the foyer, but any more and I'd go to the returning officer. But I'm a grumpy old man at heart.

I'm never more polite than an indifferent 'nope' either.
 
Yep, this is also a good way to politely decline any party tellers outside the polling station who want to know which way you voted (although maybe there won't be any for this vote).

Not sure what's going to happen with tellers this time, as it really isn't split on party lines and I don't think the campaigns are that organised. So, possibly no tellers.

On the other hand, quite possibly random people with banners and leaflets.

I don't actually mind there being tellers, and I'm always helpful to them - it helps get the voters out and more voting = better every time, even if my side loses. I was a teller myself once, bit of a thankless task.
 
Yep. I've said it time and time again. I don't being a little bit poorer if it means being far more democratic.

P.S: I don't give two hoots about immigration. :P

The problem is that some of us would stand to be ALOT poorer with a EU exit.

People underestimate the impact of European social fund on low income families.
 
I am kinda suprised how popular EU still seems to be in Spain


Or Germany. I guess the disgruntled/scared/xenophobic/whatever they dislike about EU itself people are truly a loud (not so small) minority. Or people love to complain about the many problems of the EU (parking politicians who outlived their usefulness there, attenendcy, some absurd bureaucracy, etc.) but realise quietly that it has simply a ton of benefits and made Europe a better place.

I grew up in the knowledge that I'll never have to dislogde my bayonet from a French man's guts and instead will be able to enjoy his food, travel his country and get to watch his sister run around in hotpants (which were all the rage at that goth party in Paris last month). That was not the case for generations of males in my family or birthplace. Think about it. To me that alone is worth all the money that'll be taken out of my income and wacky laws about cucumbers.
 

That's the thing that scares me about this.

If people want to leave, so be it, but they should leave based on the actual facts, not the embellishments that have been going on.

I'm going to be grumpy if we leave, not because we're leaving, but because of how misrepresented everything has been and that people haven't necessarily made a truly informed decision.
 
I grew up in the knowledge that I'll never have to dislogde my bayonet from a French man's guts and instead will be able to enjoy his food, travel his country and get to watch his sister run around in hotpants (which were all the rage at that goth party in Paris last month). That was not the case for generations of males in my family or birthplace. Think about it. To me that alone is worth all the money that'll be taken out of my income and wacky laws about cucumbers.

And I mean, the wacky laws are usually bullshit, and what regulations there are for food are generally just part of harmonization rather than an addition of rules. In that, when you have a common market, it's a lot more useful to have a single standard for products than it is to have dozens.
 
Italy is a net contributor to the EU budget, Spain is not. I imagine that has a lot to do with things.

While being a contributor is one of the driving aspects of the exit rethoric, I believe that most of us want to remain in the EU because:

a) We remember how things were before joining the club. Our consumer rights and protections were crap.
b) As a major tourist destination, we fully understand the immense effects of Visa-free travel for our economy.
c) As a major exporter of produce, we fully understand the huge importance of the internal market.
d) There's a lingering sense of belonging. Franco's isolationist dictatorship and the historical disdain of the French political class ("Europe begins at the Pyrenees") towards Spain as crystallized by Mitterrand made us yearn to belong to the EU.
e) We don't have overtly nationalist parties like the Lega Nord or (to a lesser degree) Forza Italia. All major political formations are remarkably pro-European.

Keep in mind that Spain is an old country in demographic terms, so points a to d resonate loudly among the citizenry.
 
So assuming Britain votes Remain, who gets to be PM? I know Cameron said he's going to stay on but I know several people who said that to be unlikely. Can Boris still get the job if Remain wins? Or some other candidate?
 
So assuming Britain votes Remain, who gets to be PM? I know Cameron said he's going to stay on but I know several people who said that to be unlikely. Can Boris still get the job if Remain wins? Or some other candidate?

If Remain wins then Cameron will stay as PM and very quickly he will shuffle most of the traitors out of the cabinet. I don't think Boris would have any credible way to challenge Cameron unless we vote to Leave.
 
Gonna vote for the first time in my life, remain. Rather not rock the boat and I work for a global company. I don't want to see my colleagues screwed due to them coming from mainland EU and working in the UK.
 
If Remain wins then Cameron will stay as PM and very quickly he will shuffle most of the traitors out of the cabinet. I don't think Boris would have any credible way to challenge Cameron unless we vote to Leave.

Unlikely still IMO. Other parties can force vote of no confidence and the Tory rebels only need to number around 30 to collapse the government. They get around 2 weeks IIRC to sort it after that otherwise it's a GE.

None of that is good anyway since it will further impede growth this year as money sits on the sidelines due to renewed political uncertainty. Just a total clusterfuck.
 
If Remain wins then Cameron will stay as PM and very quickly he will shuffle most of the traitors out of the cabinet. I don't think Boris would have any credible way to challenge Cameron unless we vote to Leave.
Seems unreasonable for Cameron to fire his cabinet after they were told they are free to campaign on either side.
 
If Remain wins then Cameron will stay as PM and very quickly he will shuffle most of the traitors out of the cabinet. I don't think Boris would have any credible way to challenge Cameron unless we vote to Leave.

It is believed Boris will get a job in the cabinet if remain win
 
So if you had to bet money on who would be PM after any local shenanigans, who would you all pick?

I just find it all very interesting in how different the election/campaign process is from the American one.
 
So if you had to bet money on who would be PM after any local shenanigans, who would you all pick?

I just find it all very interesting in how different the election/campaign process is from the American one.

The next PM will be Boris Johnson, IMO...the timing of it is what is not certain.... However he is hated in the north, liked in the south (roughly speaking)

I say this as he can appeal to the right wing Tory MP's as well as the centre right ones
 
Myself, I've been predicting a tight Remain win as a result of this last-minute conservatism for months now. Whether these polls are representative of this, or whether that status quo swing is yet to come and this is a reaction to Thursday, I couldn't honestly tell you.

I have to admit, right now my biggest worry is what I guess would be best described as a "Shy Bigot" factor.
 
The next PM will be Boris Johnson, IMO...the timing of it is what is not certain.... However he is hated in the north, liked in the south (roughly speaking)

I say this as he can appeal to the right wing Tory MP's as well as the centre right ones

Morning Tak3n! (let's have a non-grumpy day today)

I think you're right about BJ if Leave wins. If Remain wins then it is much more difficult as Osborne has probably burnt his boats and May is too obstreperous. Despite which side he's been on in the referendum I think Gove might have a chance in the event of Remain winning.
 
So if you had to bet money on who would be PM after any local shenanigans, who would you all pick?

I just find it all very interesting in how different the election/campaign process is from the American one.

I probably wouldn't put a bet on it, but I've always quite liked Liam Fox. I thought he was the best candidate from the leadership contest that Dave ultimately won. I've been hearing him again more recently on various radio shows in the Brexit debate, and he comes across as a competent and confident speaker who can put his opinion across reasonably and back it up. I don't really know if he's in the running, but I wouldn't mind if he was.
 
If Cameron was smart, he'd bury Boris' political career as fast as possible. Give him a dead-end appointment, then overwork him too much to even think about standing for PM. Or just accuse him of treason against the party and expel him (not sure if possible), or something along those lines.

It's a pity for all of us that Cameron hasn't demonstrated the faintest iota of cleverness throughout his Prime Ministerial tenure.
 
I probably wouldn't put a bet on it, but I've always quite liked Liam Fox. I thought he was the best candidate from the leadership contest that Dave ultimately won. I've been hearing him again more recently on various radio shows in the Brexit debate, and he comes across as a competent and confident speaker who can put his opinion across reasonably and back it up. I don't really know if he's in the running, but I wouldn't mind if he was.

Ah, as I like to call him, the disgraced former defence secretary, Dr Liam Fox. :P

I think that scandal would probably cost any leadership ambitions, despite is ability to mostly get by unnoticed during Brexit debates.
 
If Cameron was smart, he'd bury Boris' political career as fast as possible. Give him a dead-end appointment, then overwork him too much to even think about standing for PM. Or just accuse him of treason against the party and expel him (not sure if possible), or something along those lines.

It's a pity for all of us that Cameron hasn't demonstrated the faintest iota of cleverness throughout his Prime Ministerial tenure.

Cameron has achieved a lot of what he has wanted to achieve.
 
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