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[liquidtmd]

His election campaign could be 'Get a happy ending and vote for BJ'?

Spoiler

I got nothing

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Ah, as I like to call him, the disgraced former defence secretary, Dr Liam Fox.

I think that scandal would probably cost any leadership ambitions, despite is ability to mostly get by unnoticed during Brexit debates.

Ah, just read his wikipedia page! I would never have guessed...

Edit:

I have to admit, right now my biggest worry is what I guess would be best described as a "Shy Bigot" factor.

Yeah, we're everywhere. It's like Hydra.

 

[PJV3]

If Boris is still seen as a funny clown after this, or that makes him suitable for any kind of power, then we're doomed.

 

[Tak3n]

If Cameron was smart, he'd bury Boris' political career as fast as possible. Give him a dead-end appointment, then overwork him too much to even think about standing for PM. Or just accuse him of treason against the party and expel him (not sure if possible), or something along those lines.

It's a pity for all of us that Cameron hasn't demonstrated the faintest iota of cleverness throughout his Prime Ministerial tenure.

Keep your enemies close....

In reality if Cameron took on Boris, Cameron may well lose, everyone expect Boris to be the next PM, but it may not happen....

of course the dilemma is (and others will disagree) if the vote is a close remain, there will be a desire for the next Tory leader to be anti EU, within the party

 

[mclem]

Yeah, we're everywhere. It's like Hydra.

Well, to be fair, I gather there's some notable people for Hydra these days...

My point was more contrasting with the "Shy Tories" that had an impact in the previous election, people who would be claiming they're undecided on a poll because they're a little uncomfortable with the fact that the immigration rhetoric is working on them.

 

[Jasup]

Or Germany. I guess the disgruntled/scared/xenophobic/whatever they dislike about EU itself people are truly a loud (not so small) minority. Or people love to complain about the many problems of the EU (parking politicians who outlived their usefulness there, attenendcy, some absurd bureaucracy, etc.) but realise quietly that it has simply a ton of benefits and made Europe a better place.

I have some bad news for you (source in German):

For non German speakers out there
- 58.5% of Germans agree with the sentiment that Sinti and Roma people lean towards Criminality
- 41.4% agree that muslims should be prohibited to immigrate in Germany
- 41.1% - It's disgusting when homosexuals kiss in open

This is from "Mitte" -studies by University of Leipzig of right extremist sentiments in Germany. A total of 2420 people were interviewed for it.

When we look at the overall trends in the study (PDF of the study, in German) we find huge increases to those numbers since 2009:

Captured from the study I linked

Intolerance towards specific groups has increased in a major way.

And I said specific groups because, when people were asked to agree or disagree with statements about immigration overall, the trend is a bit different.

The statements were: "The foreigners come here only to take advantage of our welfare state", "If there are no jobs, foreigners should be sent back to their home countries", "The state is infiltrated with too many foreign influences by foreigners to a dangerous degree." This part of the study was conducted with a 5 step Likert-scale and the "somewhat agree" and "fully agree" -answers were counted together.

This is the overall trend in "hatred of foreigners" -axis:

Please note that this doesn't mean 20% of Germans hate foreigners, but that around that amount of Germans somewhat agree or fully agree with the aformentioned notions.

But really, as someone who visits Germany many times a year I've always felt welcome there.

[edit] also note that my translation can be a bit clunky as neither English or German are my native language.

 

[phisheep]

Well, to be fair, I gather there's some notable people for Hydra these days...

My point was more contrasting with the "Shy Tories" that had an impact in the previous election, people who would be claiming they're undecided on a poll because they're a little uncomfortable with the fact that the immigration rhetoric is working on them.

I don't think there will be a national shy bigot effect. If anything around my neck of the woods it is the other way round - in an area seemingly full of brexiters it's quite difficult to calmly put the case for Remain. I suspect that we'll see the "don't knows" swing towards Brexit in the cities and towards Remain elsewhere (giving about 2:1 overall swinging to Remain).

 

[PJV3]

Keep your enemies close....

In reality if Cameron took on Boris, Cameron may well lose, everyone expect Boris to be the next PM, but it may not happen....

of course the dilemma is (and others will disagree) if the vote is a close remain, there will be a desire for the next Tory leader to be anti EU, within the party

This is one of the reasons I considered voting for exit, the Brexit stuff helps the right and I would love to pop that bubble. Constantly going on about leaving has no risk or downside, there should be a forfeit like France creating an EU army and we have to join.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Well, to be fair, I gather there's some notable people for Hydra these days...

My point was more contrasting with the "Shy Tories" that had an impact in the previous election, people who would be claiming they're undecided on a poll because they're a little uncomfortable with the fact that the immigration rhetoric is working on them.

You may be right. I think it goes part way to explaining the discrepencies between phone and online polls. Perhaps people are more reticent to say out loud that they are going to vote for Brexit? Although to be honest, I think that effect will be counteracted, or more than counteracted, by the on-the-day shift to status quo.

As Phi says though, it's probably a regional thing too. Whether you live in a "Leave area" or a "Remain area" will dictate the public acceptability of saying you're going to vote the other way.

 

[Exterminieren]

Well, to be fair, I gather there's some notable people for Hydra these days...

My point was more contrasting with the "Shy Tories" that had an impact in the previous election, people who would be claiming they're undecided on a poll because they're a little uncomfortable with the fact that the immigration rhetoric is working on them.

I understand the concern, but I'm not so certain it applies in this case- the Leave campaign and its supporters have been anything but shy!

I'm more inclined to think that, if anyone is shy this time out, it's undecideds who lean towards Remain- they think that things are basically OK, and don't want to make a fuss, and when push comes to shove they'll vote Remain without making a big deal out of it beforehand. This is often how it goes in referenda.

The polls situation isn't analogous either- bear in mind that a general election is exponentially more difficult to poll for than a national, yes/no referendum. For the GE, the Shy Tories effect could just have been a handful of people in key constituencies who nevertheless swung the vote in a big way with our electoral system- a similar swing would mean absolutely nothing for a national referendum.

 

[phisheep]

I understand the concern, but I'm not so certain it applies in this case- the Leave campaign and its supporters have been anything but shy!

I'm more inclined to think that, if anyone is shy this time out, it's undecideds who lean towards Remain- they think that things are basically OK, and don't want to make a fuss, and when push comes to shove they'll vote Remain without making a big deal out of it beforehand. This is often how it goes in referenda.

I tend to agree. Partly because the very loudness (and often obnoxiousness, present company excepted of course) of Leave campaigners can so easily backfire.

Here's just one illustrative anecdote. An old lady acquaintance was until recently very much for Brexit, but has swung very firmly to Remain on account of her son-in-law's virulently racist Leave rhetoric.

 

[Ushojax]

Boris is certainly a great entertainer, maybe he can host HIGNFY again after all this. That's his level.

 

[milanbaros]

Leave odds back up to 3:1. Appears as though the tide has really turned from the middle of last week.

 

[phisheep]

Boris is certainly a great entertainer, maybe he can host HIGNFY again after all this. That's his level.

Posted already, though still a good read!

 

[SuperEpicMan]

I have already long decided to vote remain, but I saw this on Facebook earlier and thought it was pretty interesting:

https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/

 

[Ashes]

YouTube: https://youtu.be/iAgKHSNqxa8
Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=921269251335418&id=479042895558058


Let's play "guess how much Sky edit out for balance reasons"! Though the last time they had to edit something out, use of Parliament footage, they forgot until it was pointed out by the repeat, haha.

Lol.

 

[Hammer24]

This is from "Mitte" -studies by University of Leipzig of right extremist sentiments in Germany. A total of 2420 people were interviewed for it.

Please read this. This study is getting heavily criticised for asking leading questions to make it intentionally looking worse.

 

[phisheep]

I have already long decided to vote remain, but I saw this on Facebook earlier and thought it was pretty interesting:

https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/

I'm only a few minutes in and this promises to be very good indeed.

(of the Leave campaign) ~"It's like a bunch of creationists trying to convince an academic zoologist that evolution is wrong"~

Edit: Gosh. I had never heard of the Balance of Competences Review. It's a detailed, pretty comprehensive review of our relationship with the EU carried out between 2012-2014 and published in 32(?) reports accessible via the link. I've dipped into it, and it looks very sound. There's no summary, but according to the video it is overwhelmingly in favour of our current relationship with the EU.

I rather shocked that this is the first I've heard of it through the campaign. It is rather important.

 

[JonathanEx]

Okay so you know when something is bad but you can't keep it to yourself

Sky News went "well this will be a rollercoaster night so let's stick Adam Boulton on a rollercoaster".

This amusing video is here: https://www.facebook.com/skynews/videos/1376290562385537/

Someone, uh, edited it.

Spent 20 minutes reconstructing what it might look like having sex with Adam Boulton from Sky News

https://twitter.com/feelwelcome/status/744825440775323648


I shared this in the work chatroom so you know I'm having a good day.

 

[Psychotext]

John Oliver vid was brilliant. My nephew said it reminded him of me ranting about the subject lately... lol

 

[theaface]

YouTube: https://youtu.be/iAgKHSNqxa8
Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=921269251335418&id=479042895558058


Let's play "guess how much Sky edit out for balance reasons"! Though the last time they had to edit something out, use of Parliament footage, they forgot until it was pointed out by the repeat, haha.

Jesus, that clip of Farage from 2010 is so fucking gross. I mean, I'm not surprised in the least, but it's still quite shocking to see a prominent politician to be so openly vile to another human bring.

 

[Kabouter]

I have already long decided to vote remain, but I saw this on Facebook earlier and thought it was pretty interesting:

https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/

This was fascinating and very informative, thanks for posting

 

[avaya]

Had very interesting, read depressing as fuck, strat. meeting today.

Equities
Main takeaway - leave is hitting limit down on equities high single digit/low double digit on non cyclicals, others (banks, REITs) could be off 15-20. But these estimates are pissing into the wind.

That's on the day.

Inevitable follow up was, is it the floor? Nope. Some sectors down in manner similar to financial crisis, 30-40% fall further over following 12mths. Now saving grace here is crashes tend to be precluded by market being blind sided. This time BoE is ready to provide liquidity to the banks, backstop etc.

However if you think a crash is 20% fall with liquidity evaporated then, yeah that's definitely not a non-zero probability.

FX
On leave what's the result for sterling? Somewhere between 1.30 and parity. Parity is a bit strong (read cray) but certainly there is a floor where UK assets will offer better risk reward.

Structurally the thesis is simple - the UK runs a trade deficit, biggest net against it is Financial Services, biggest component of which comes from Eurozone. FS sector that loses most from Brexit - sterling falls.

Article 50
Everything is being made up as we go along. Only legal framework is other 27 decide and you take. it would be a shakedown, they will need another way.

On Macron's threats - French do not want to set precedent, want punishment. Political will for that split but if core Franco-German group agree then others will be whipped into line because.....

On exit, leave referenda contagion to spill to Scandi + NL.

Scotland - inescapable second referendum on exit. How they play it against 50 USD oil is unknown.

Friday is either apocalypse now or get that out the way and refocus on shit macro outlook.

 

[phisheep]

Had very interesting, read depressing as fuck, strat. meeting today.

...

I had to read that *very* slowly to work out what you were saying - but yeah, about what I'd expect. Roll on Friday.

 

[Jasup]

Please read this. This study is getting heavily criticised for asking leading questions to make it intentionally looking worse.

Thank you for the link, will read.

I have already long decided to vote remain, but I saw this on Facebook earlier and thought it was pretty interesting:

https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/

Very interesting, thank you for the link.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Had very interesting, read depressing as fuck, strat. meeting today.

Equities
Main takeaway - leave is hitting limit down on equities high single digit/low double digit on non cyclicals, others (banks, REITs) could be off 15-20. But these estimates are pissing into the wind.

That's on the day.

Inevitable follow up was, is it the floor? Nope. Some sectors down in manner similar to financial crisis, 30-40% fall further over following 12mths. Now saving grace here is crashes tend to be precluded by market being blind sided. This time BoE is ready to provide liquidity to the banks, backstop etc.

However if you think a crash is 20% fall with liquidity evaporated then, yeah that's definitely not a non-zero probability.

FX
On leave what's the result for sterling? Somewhere between 1.30 and parity. Parity is a bit strong (read cray) but certainly there is a floor where UK assets will offer better risk reward.

Structurally the thesis is simple - the UK runs a trade deficit, biggest net against it is Financial Services, biggest component of which comes from Eurozone. FS sector that loses most from Brexit - sterling falls.

Article 50
Everything is being made up as we go along. Only legal framework is other 27 decide and you take. it would be a shakedown, they will need another way.

On Macron's threats - French do not want to set precedent, want punishment. Political will for that split but if core Franco-German group agree then others will be whipped into line because.....

On exit, leave referenda contagion to spill to Scandi + NL.

Scotland - inescapable second referendum on exit. How they play it against 50 USD oil is unknown.

Friday is either apocalypse now or get that out the way and refocus on shit macro outlook.

Yep if we vote to leave on Friday, amidst the pro leave celebrations will be a shock to our economy on Friday that will not be forgotten.

 

[milanbaros]

Had very interesting, read depressing as fuck, strat. meeting today.

Equities
Main takeaway - leave is hitting limit down on equities high single digit/low double digit on non cyclicals, others (banks, REITs) could be off 15-20. But these estimates are pissing into the wind.

That's on the day.

Inevitable follow up was, is it the floor? Nope. Some sectors down in manner similar to financial crisis, 30-40% fall further over following 12mths. Now saving grace here is crashes tend to be precluded by market being blind sided. This time BoE is ready to provide liquidity to the banks, backstop etc.

However if you think a crash is 20% fall with liquidity evaporated then, yeah that's definitely not a non-zero probability.

FX
On leave what's the result for sterling? Somewhere between 1.30 and parity. Parity is a bit strong (read cray) but certainly there is a floor where UK assets will offer better risk reward.

Structurally the thesis is simple - the UK runs a trade deficit, biggest net against it is Financial Services, biggest component of which comes from Eurozone. FS sector that loses most from Brexit - sterling falls.

Article 50
Everything is being made up as we go along. Only legal framework is other 27 decide and you take. it would be a shakedown, they will need another way.

On Macron's threats - French do not want to set precedent, want punishment. Political will for that split but if core Franco-German group agree then others will be whipped into line because.....

On exit, leave referenda contagion to spill to Scandi + NL.

Scotland - inescapable second referendum on exit. How they play it against 50 USD oil is unknown.

Friday is either apocalypse now or get that out the way and refocus on shit macro outlook.

Thanks for that.

Thankfully looks like the markets have seriously downgraded the likelihood of a brexit today.

Feeling confident in my 56:44 vote split.

 

[CCS]

Had very interesting, read depressing as fuck, strat. meeting today.

Equities
Main takeaway - leave is hitting limit down on equities high single digit/low double digit on non cyclicals, others (banks, REITs) could be off 15-20. But these estimates are pissing into the wind.

That's on the day.

Inevitable follow up was, is it the floor? Nope. Some sectors down in manner similar to financial crisis, 30-40% fall further over following 12mths. Now saving grace here is crashes tend to be precluded by market being blind sided. This time BoE is ready to provide liquidity to the banks, backstop etc.

However if you think a crash is 20% fall with liquidity evaporated then, yeah that's definitely not a non-zero probability.

FX
On leave what's the result for sterling? Somewhere between 1.30 and parity. Parity is a bit strong (read cray) but certainly there is a floor where UK assets will offer better risk reward.

Structurally the thesis is simple - the UK runs a trade deficit, biggest net against it is Financial Services, biggest component of which comes from Eurozone. FS sector that loses most from Brexit - sterling falls.

Article 50
Everything is being made up as we go along. Only legal framework is other 27 decide and you take. it would be a shakedown, they will need another way.

On Macron's threats - French do not want to set precedent, want punishment. Political will for that split but if core Franco-German group agree then others will be whipped into line because.....

On exit, leave referenda contagion to spill to Scandi + NL.

Scotland - inescapable second referendum on exit. How they play it against 50 USD oil is unknown.

Friday is either apocalypse now or get that out the way and refocus on shit macro outlook.

I start work in September at (major financial institution), if we vote leave I imagine everyone will just be running around screaming. Fun fun fun.

 

[jimbobsmells]

I start work in September at (major financial institution), if we vote leave I imagine everyone will just be running around screaming. Fun fun fun.

What a time to be alive

 

[Jackpot]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ng-economists-warn-of-long-term-brexit-damage

Many economists say that Brexit would severely hurt the economy for the long term. It's even more clear that vote leave has lost the economic argument.

Relax guys, it's only "10-20 years" before things sort themselves out!

 

[PJV3]

Thanks for that.

Thankfully looks like the markets have seriously downgraded the likelihood of a brexit today.

Feeling confident in my 56:44 vote split.

The idea that the Tories can turn around and elect someone anti EU after this is making my head hurt. I get UKIP hanging around but the governing party has to fucking move on and let it go.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Had very interesting, read depressing as fuck, strat. meeting today.

Just some bumps on the road to sovereignty. /s

 

[GazzaScotland]

Remain shortened to 1/4 in a lot of places. Feeling a lot better today than I was last week.

 

[CCS]

Also, in delightful coincidences, the referendum is on my mother's birthday. So we're going to have a nice day of celebrations followed by staying up all night staring at the TV and praying.

 

[phisheep]

Also, in delightful coincidences, the referendum is on my mother's birthday. So we're going to have a nice day of celebrations followed by staying up all night staring at the TV and praying.

Are your Finals all done yet CCS?

 

[PJV3]

Just some bumps on the road to sovereignty. /s

Gove said we will barely notice it. It will feel a bit quiet like a bank holiday for a few days and then we get back to it and knuckle down.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ng-economists-warn-of-long-term-brexit-damage

Many economists say that Brexit would severely hurt the economy for the long term. It's even more clear that vote leave has lost the economic argument.

This makes a strong argument that anyone over 50 shouldn't have been allowed to vote in this referendum.

Why are we letting 70/80yo who likely won't even live long enough to see the mess they create vote? I know that's unpopular, but it's frustrating to see a voting base have so much power but so little stake in the future they vote for.

 

[PJV3]

Shit, the headline on the Guardian is bad, Farage Is being a twat about the Jo Cox situation.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/20/eu-referendum-live-warsi-leave-parliament-recalled-jo-cox

 

[FlammableD]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ng-economists-warn-of-long-term-brexit-damage

Many economists say that Brexit would severely hurt the economy for the long term. It's even more clear that vote leave has lost the economic argument.

They were never having the economic argument

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Shit, the headline on the Guardian is bad, Farage Is being a twat about the Jo Cox situation.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/20/eu-referendum-live-warsi-leave-parliament-recalled-jo-cox

Warsi was a leaver?

Did anyone honestly know? I didn't even know she picked a side.

 

[phisheep]

This makes a strong argument that anyone over 50 shouldn't have been allowed to vote in this referendum.

Why are we letting 70/80yo who likely won't even live long enough to see the mess they create vote? I know that's unpopular, but it's frustrating to see a voting base have so much power but so little stake in the future they vote for.

Oh, why don't you come straight out with it and just deny anyone who votes Leave the right to vote, eh?

And us oldies do have a stake in the future, through our children and grandchildren if we don't live long enough to satisfy you.

 

[JonathanEx]

This makes a strong argument that anyone over 50 shouldn't have been allowed to vote in this referendum.

Why are we letting 70/80yo who likely won't even live long enough to see the mess they create vote? I know that's unpopular, but it's frustrating to see a voting base have so much power but so little stake in the future they vote for.

I think there are some polls suggesting that 75+ swing back to regain, possibly as they lived through the war etc.

 

[Hasney]

Shit, the headline on the Guardian is bad, Farage Is being a twat about the Jo Cox situation.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/20/eu-referendum-live-warsi-leave-parliament-recalled-jo-cox

Hey Nige,

Go Farage yourself.

 

[RedSparrows]

They were never having the economic argument

Aye, other than 'they took our jobs', it's about the emotional response to modern capitalism and supra-national relationships. Such fear and resentment is not entirely unjustified, one feels. The proposed solutions (i.e. Leave), however, are not, I think.

 

[danowat]

Hey Nige,

Go Farage yourself.

I'm generally not a violent person, but I'd like to punch Farage in the back of the head.

 

[OverBlood 3]

Yep. I've said it time and time again. I don't being a little bit poorer if it means being far more democratic.

P.S: I don't give two hoots about immigration.

Fuck me, you wouldn't be saying that if you were kicked out of your home and had everything repossessed. How idiotic.

I'm generally not a violent person, but I'd like to punch Farage in the back of the head.

Bagsy on his balls.

 

[Hasney]

Fuck me, you wouldn't be saying that if you were kicked out of your home and had everything repossessed. How idiotic.

It's true. Where would they send their polling card?

 

[ClosingADoor]

This makes a strong argument that anyone over 50 shouldn't have been allowed to vote in this referendum.

Why are we letting 70/80yo who likely won't even live long enough to see the mess they create vote? I know that's unpopular, but it's frustrating to see a voting base have so much power but so little stake in the future they vote for.

You're kidding right? Because these people worked all their lives and helped shape the country for what it is. And because they are also influenced by government decisions, maybe even more then other people if they have to get by on government assistance or require a lot of healthcare. So yes, they absolutely should have a vote.

And maybe they vote a certain way for their children and grandchildren, because they think that way is better for future generations.

 

[Dambrosi]

Cameron has achieved a lot of what he has wanted to achieve.

Yeah, (1) despite himself, and (2) more's the pity.

Shit, the headline on the Guardian is bad, Farage Is being a twat about the Jo Cox situation.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ecalled-jo-cox

...Are we sure Nige isn't a Remain plant? Because he's doing a bang-up job if he is.

 

[OverBlood 3]

It's true. Where would they send their polling card?

Hahaha