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[Yoda]

I'm not a British national, so this doesn't have any implications me at all. For those voting remain, do the following cons outweigh the pros:

* You pay more (directly or indirectly) than you get out compared to other EU members (Greece, Italy, etc...)

* There are economic regulations mandated on business which don't trade with the EU (small/medium businesses) thus adding useless compliance costs on people who can't afford it.

* The EU parliament is borderline anti-democratic (can't propose new laws, but have to abide by what's passed, normally written by nameless bureaucrats)

* If another member nation doesn't have its house in order (Greece) the other member nations (in this case you) will directly or indirectly have to pay for it, whether it be through more taxes (unlikely) or a depreciation of the currency (you guys still use the pound, but I assume those who are pro-EU will want to change this).

* Surrendering sovereignty is a really tricky business, if you ever find yourself unhappy with the current rule of law, you may eventually find that there is no longer a legal channel available to challenge said grievance.

From afar the EU seems to have been a well intention-ed idea that has proven itself a failure. The EU's political power has grown over the last half-decade, and during the same time period the currency has depreciated, economic concepts which were once anathema are now being deployed (negative interest rates), and GDP growth has been anemic at best. Of course you there is no evidence that leaving will fix these issues, but there is also no evidence the EU can fix said issues either... But unlike an EUless UK, there has already been more than ample time and resources for the EU to fix it issues or show real progress toward fixing its issues... that hasn't happened.

 

[Jezbollah]

Who's planning on staying up watching the results on Thursday? I am thanks to having nothing better to do.

I will be. Look forward to some energy drink/caffeine filled chat.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

.

May I ask how afar you're speaking from?

Even a slowly growing EU is our biggest trading partner, by a long way. We'd have to abide by product regulations regardless, only now our own domestic industry would be artificially uncompetitive because of tariffs. We also wouldn't be able to benefit from cheap labour in the way that Germany and France do.

As for issues with currency, I'm with you. The Euro has been a monumental fuck up, but mainly because countries got cold feet half way through. If there was a budgetary union, they could navigate the tricky economic conditions far more easily. But that doesn't really affect Britain anyway - they're sticking with it whether we're in the EU or not.

 

[Dambrosi]

I'm hoping to take Friday off as Flexitime, which'll be all the sweeter if #FE arrives in time. If I can pull that off, I'll probably watch the results.

Oh shit, that's right - Tokyo Mirage Sessions is coming this week! I got my Fortissimo Edition from a Dutch online shop (Bol.com), hopefully it gets to me on Thursday so I can play it before the results come in!

A British national I am not, so spout ignorant bullshit I can, without taking responsibility for any of it! Great, am I not? Use the Force, Nigel!

If I may ask...where are you from?

 

[jufonuk]

May I ask how afar you're speaking from?

Dagobah?

 

[Khoryos]

Over the past few days, I've actually gone from "cautiously leave" to "cautiously remain".

I think the collapse of the EU is still the best bet for a united europe and, eventually, world - but it would grant far, far too much power and legitimacy to the far right.

Here's hoping we can get some decent MEPs in and actually make the EU less shitty.

 

[Camp Freddie]

...and, appropriately enough, Europe.

It's da Faiii-naaaaahl Countdoooooowwwwwwwwnnnnnnn

I think we're going to be hearing this a lot on Thursday, as the outro on every news report.

I've had someone voting Leave tell me it would be a massive disrespect to our veterans who fought in both World Wars if they heard that we would be handing over our country to Germany without firing a single shot. This is the kind of rhetoric people genuinely believe.

Thinking about my relatives, I think they'd variously be glad that I don't have to sleep with a gasmask under my bed, don't have to worry about Italian snipers ("You can buy a German car though, then never shot at medics") and am not currently dying in a fireball several thousand feet above the French countryside.
Some mutually agreed rules and regulations on trade are of little consequence, and you could never get bananas during the war anyway, bendy or otherwise.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

Here's hoping we can get some decent MEPs in and actually make the EU less shitty.

This is my best case scenario.

We vote remain, however narrowly - but it empowers people to vote in European elections. Vote on what they want from the EU, instead of wasting a vote on a protest party.

 

[crayman]

(you guys still use the pound, but I assume those who are pro-EU will want to change this).

If the terms of Remain included mandatory adoption of the Euro - then Leave would win by an enormous landslide. The deal we have with the EU is really good (eg. Market Access, No Schengen area) , and being able to keep the pound is key to this.

 

[ClosingADoor]

I'm not a British national, so this doesn't have any implications me at all. For those voting remain, do the following cons outweigh the pros:

* You pay more (directly or indirectly) than you get out compared to other EU members (Greece, Italy, etc...)

* There are economic regulations mandated on business which don't trade with the EU (small/medium businesses) thus adding useless compliance costs on people who can't afford it.

* The EU parliament is borderline anti-democratic (can't propose new laws, but have to abide by what's passed, normally written by nameless bureaucrats)

* If another member nation doesn't have its house in order (Greece) the other member nations (in this case you) will directly or indirectly have to pay for it, whether it be through more taxes (unlikely) or a depreciation of the currency (you guys still use the pound, but I assume those who are pro-EU will want to change this).

* Surrendering sovereignty is a really tricky business, if you ever find yourself unhappy with the current rule of law, you may eventually find that there is no longer a legal channel available to challenge said grievance.

From afar the EU seems to have been a well intention-ed idea that has proven itself a failure. The EU's political power has grown over the last half-decade, and during the same time period the currency has depreciated, economic concepts which were once anathema are now being deployed (negative interest rates), and GDP growth has been anemic at best. Of course you there is no evidence that leaving will fix these issues, but there is also no evidence the EU can fix said issues either... But unlike an EUless UK, there has already been more than ample time and resources for the EU to fix it issues or show real progress toward fixing its issues... that hasn't happened.

- The UK doesn't pay that much, considering their rebate and investment back into the country. They are a net contributor, but that is only normal. If they want access to the single market, the cost would not be much lower.

- Those businesses can trade with the rest of the EU because of those regulations. You can't pick and chose regulations because one might trade with another country and the other doesn't. That would create an uneven playing field in the country itself.

- We elect the Parliament and our elected officials elect the Commission. This is the way, because countries also don't want everything in the EU to be elected directly by the people, since that would mean giving up more national power actually. Also this way, smaller countries have a good input in writing laws, so they don't get screwed over all the time by larger countries. It's a trade off you have to make, but yes, it can be improved.

- That is the way unions work. If Scotland doesn't have its house in order, England pays. If your town doesn't have it in order, the next town over pays indirectly also. No, pro-EU does not mean pro-Euro. They are different things. The UK is not obligated to join the Euro if they don't want to.

- Countries in the EU can veto things and regulation is made together. Of course not everything you want is going through and you have to accept some stuff you don't really want, just like when running any city, country, union or organization.

What makes you think the EU is a failure? Of course we are now looking at some years of negative economics. But the cause of that wasn't even just the EU. Look at other countries that are not doing so well either. These are long term things, of course there will be negative periods also. Leaving the EU does not give a clear path to economic improvement. So if you weigh the risks, staying in the EU has a much more positive outlook.

Over the past few days, I've actually gone from "cautiously leave" to "cautiously remain".

I think the collapse of the EU is still the best bet for a united europe and, eventually, world - but it would grant far, far too much power and legitimacy to the far right.

Here's hoping we can get some decent MEPs in and actually make the EU less shitty.

A collapse of the EU will not unite Europe for the next 100 years or so. And it would mean an even worse economic period for a long time to come. I'm not willing to bet on that, just because things right now are not as perfect as we want to.

 

[Ashes]

My sister has switched from Brexit to Remain. All the facts in the world didn't help. At least not according to her.
So who persuaded her? David Cameron on telly. Go figure.
Hopefully she doesn't switch back after Corbyn.

 

[phisheep]

I'm not a British national, so this doesn't have any implications me at all. For those voting remain, do the following cons outweigh the pros:

* You pay more (directly or indirectly) than you get out compared to other EU members (Greece, Italy, etc...)

I don't see that as a con. It is just a consequence of being one of the more prosperous nations.

* There are economic regulations mandated on business which don't trade with the EU (small/medium businesses) thus adding useless compliance costs on people who can't afford it.

Not all that many and not all that onerous to comply with. There are some notable exceptions (like the recent changes to VAT rules on digital goods) - which I'm making representations about to my MP both directly and indirectly.

Against that there's the accompanying benefit of the same rules for all, which helps keep competition - reasonably - honest. It doesn't matter that at the moment I don't trade in the rest of the EU. It does matter that nobody else in the EU can steal my customers by cheating.

* The EU parliament is borderline anti-democratic (can't propose new laws, but have to abide by what's passed, normally written by nameless bureaucrats)

It has improved massively over the last 20 years or so, and it can reject laws, which is nearly as good.

And all laws everywhere are written by nameless bureaucrats - you really wouldn't want to trust elected representatives to do it would you? It's a skilled job.

* If another member nation doesn't have its house in order (Greece) the other member nations (in this case you) will directly or indirectly have to pay for it, whether it be through more taxes (unlikely) or a depreciation of the currency (you guys still use the pound, but I assume those who are pro-EU will want to change this).

That's an issue for the Eurozone, not for the UK. And it is probably not true that most UK europhiles would support entering the eurozone, or not in the foreseeable future at least.

So we are insulated from that one.

* Surrendering sovereignty is a really tricky business, if you ever find yourself unhappy with the current rule of law, you may eventually find that there is no longer a legal channel available to challenge said grievance.

Surrendering sovereignty is a dreadful thing, but that is not what this is about. Sharing sovereignty with close allies in trade, in specific areas where all benefit from consistency and co-operation, in a collaborative way, is much less scary - and that is what we have. Of course we do not always get our own way, but then perhaps our own way is not always right for everyone else.

From afar the EU seems to have been a well intention-ed idea that has proven itself a failure. The EU's political power has grown over the last half-decade, and during the same time period the currency has depreciated, economic concepts which were once anathema are now being deployed (negative interest rates), and GDP growth has been anemic at best. Of course you there is no evidence that leaving will fix these issues, but there is also no evidence the EU can fix said issues either... But unlike an EUless UK, there has already been more than ample time and resources for the EU to fix it issues or show real progress toward fixing its issues... that hasn't happened.

In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union it proved tempting and sensible to enlarge the EU to the east perhaps faster than we would otherwise have done it. That's put pressures on the EU and on member States, some of them severe, and it will take some time to settle down.

But it was, and is, for the greater good.

 

[mclem]

I think we're going to be hearing this a lot on Thursday, as the outro on every news report.

With the intro being this.

 

[zpiders]

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

 

[pigeon]

About six years ago, I spoke to an Estate Agent in north london who was livid that even though the 2012 Olympics was going to take place in London, the announcements would have to also be in French. He referred to "the French" as "our oldest enemy". He'd just met me five minutes previously and I'm pretty sure he wasn't kidding.

Next time you see him maybe remind him of the Roman Empire. It's not called Napoleon's Wall, after all.

It's time to bring back the Great Conspiracy!

 

[avaya]

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

Question: are you paying all cash? Who is going to give you a mortgage...

 

[Roberto Larcos]

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

Hope you can afford to put 50% down as a deposit, and afford the higher interest rates (which will eat that 20% right up).

There's a reason the housing market slowed down in 2008.

 

[crayman]

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

Not a great plan - Mortgage rates will go up and be proportionally harder to secure. It'll likely leave you in no better position than today, except with the ol' 10-20 years of economic turmoil.

 

[CyberPunked]

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

Housing prices dropping is always a good sign.

 

[Psychotext]

Not a great plan - Mortgage rates will go up and be proportionally harder to secure. It'll likely leave you in no better position than today, except with the ol' 10-20 years of economic turmoil.

Yup, I'm trying to buy a house, and I think a leave vote would be catastrophic for it (I only have a reasonable deposit, rather than crazy amounts of cash).

 

[CCS]

Thanks everyone who replied, good to know there'll be a decent number of people to chat to as it all unfolds.

 

[Ghost]

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

Inflation due to the pound collapsing will mean interest rates will go high enough to easily counter any price drop (also I would suspect that prices in already expensive areas won't drop that much, just as with 2008) also lenders will start demanding much higher deposits again, 25% was the minimum when I bought my place just as the crash was happening.

 

[PJV3]

My sister has switched from Brexit to Remain. All the facts in the world didn't help. At least not according to her.
So who persuaded her? David Cameron on telly. Go figure.
Hopefully she doesn't switch back after Corbyn.

Hmm, I think it's more that the abyss is rapidly approaching.

 

[Uzzy]

I'll set up a discord server for Thursday night, if people are interested. I might stay up all night, but if it's not close I'll probably just go to bed.

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

Don't think like that, the economy will align to keep us out of the housing market no matter what happens.

 

[avaya]

Rates at zero lower bound.
LTV's are very high on average, risk of negative equity high.

Crash in house prices will be a financial crisis in this country. It's like people forget 2008.

 

[Ashes]

I'm ready to vote out on Thursday. According to our PM and economists, house prices could fall by upto 20% which is great for me as I can finally jump on the housing ladder

Trololol. People losing their houses. Trololol.

 

[CCS]

I'll set up a discord server for Thursday night, if people are interested. I might stay up all night, but if it's not close I'll probably just go to bed.

A discord server would be a great idea actually.

 

[phisheep]

Rates at zero lower bound.
LTV's are very high on average, risk of negative equity high.

I heard this in the voice of the Shipping Forecast!

 

[Khoryos]

Trololol. People losing their houses. Trololol.

If the price on your house drops, isn't it in the bank's best interest to have you paying the (now overpriced) mortgage rather than taking possession of an undervalued house?

 

[Polari]

May I ask how afar you're speaking from?

Even a slowly growing EU is our biggest trading partner, by a long way. We'd have to abide by product regulations regardless, only now our own domestic industry would be artificially uncompetitive because of tariffs. We also wouldn't be able to benefit from cheap labour in the way that Germany and France do.

The thing with this argument is the EU behaves like a big club closed off to the rest of the world. Subsidies to its members and free trade between them, but little progress on FTAs outside the EU and no scope for member states to act unilaterally. Would Britain be better, long-term, going it alone?

With cheap labour, nothing would stop an independent Britain letting an influx of lowly-paid migrants workers in (except maybe the voters, and understandably so), so this argument doesn't really hold.

Overall I agree that the EU seems like a well-intentioned idea that has proved a failure. I just don't see any evidence that a big, creaking behemoth (and all the over-privileged ivory tower bureaucrats that accompany it) is better than multilateral agreements negotiated individually. I don't think its current form its sustainable (the referendum itself is evidence of that) and regardless of how the vote pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see it either collapse spectacularly within the next 20-30 years, or see its reach (in terms of depth of integration, and possibly width) increasingly diminish.

 

[Ashes]

If the price on your house drops, isn't it in the bank's best interest to have you paying the (now overpriced) mortgage rather than taking possession of an undervalued house?

Repossession isn't based on house value, it's failure to pay mortgage.

Unless it's an interest only mortgage and you rely on sale of house to pay back what you borrowed.

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

Can recounts be conducted? If the results are as close as the polls suggest, I feel like a recount may happen dragging the night out.

 

[Hot Coldman]

staying up sure seems like a bad idea if there's a possibility you won't much like the vote

I'd rather wake up to a shitty outcome and let that ruin my day than have it ruin the night's sleep as well

 

[PackAPunchedMick]

Are SKY in the remain camp?

Their broadcasts suggest so, Cameron Q&A, Corbyn Q&A, pro-remain guests on "papers".

 

[funkystudent]

Are SKY in the remain camp?

Their broadcasts suggest so, Cameron Q&A, Corbyn Q&A, pro-remain guests on "papers".

I dont think Sky ever officially endorse a side but they sure as hell lean one way.

 

[CCS]

For those of you who like cute animals in your politics, #CatsAgainstBrexit is currently trending

 

[ClosingADoor]

The thing with this argument is the EU behaves like a big club closed off to the rest of the world. Subsidies to its members and free trade between them, but little progress on FTAs outside the EU and no scope for member states to act unilaterally. Would Britain be better, long-term, going it alone?

With cheap labour, nothing would stop an independent Britain letting an influx of lowly-paid migrants workers in (except maybe the voters, and understandably so), so this argument doesn't really hold.

Overall I agree that the EU seems like a well-intentioned idea that has proved a failure. I just don't see any evidence that a big, creaking behemoth (and all the over-privileged ivory tower bureaucrats that accompany it) is better than multilateral agreements negotiated individually. I don't think its current form its sustainable (the referendum itself is evidence of that) and regardless of how the vote pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see it either collapse spectacularly within the next 20-30 years, or see its reach (in terms of depth of integration, and possibly width) increasingly diminish.

What exactly is this failure people are talking about? What do you expect the EU should have done to not make it a failure? Because I really can't see what this big failure has been that the EU is responsible for.

Yes, there are economic problems lately, however, I am not convinced these would not be there had the EU not existed. It is not like countries didn't have economic downturns before, and now they can at least count on the others to help them out with loans, investments and open borders for their people to find work throughout the continent if they are not available at home.

 

[Ashes]

Are SKY in the remain camp?

Their broadcasts suggest so, Cameron Q&A, Corbyn Q&A, pro-remain guests on "papers".

News broadcasters legally not allowed to take positions.

 

[Izuna]

I remember months ago, a Japanese girl (who was dating a Brit expat) asked me if Britain was likely to leave the EU. Her ulterior notice was living in Spain so she was concerned.

I said "no way, rich people want to stay and leave is curled by fascism". Little did I know that Nigel Farage is actually taken seriously still.

For all my non-London white friends on Facebook, shame on you for sharing Britain First posts.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

As it happens, we were talking about the house prices at work today and we couldn't figure out exactly how the prices will fall by 20%.

Supply isn't suddenly going to suddenly increase, repossessions might jump a bit but we're not going to see huge numbers, you can make the argument that foreign investors might be more cautious, but with Chinese buyers looking to take their money out of China by any means necessary and London being a relatively attractive destination (whether we stay in or not), I don't really see where the price collapse is going to come from.

I feel we were missing something obvious but we just couldn't put our finger on it.

 

[Frankfurter]

The thing with this argument is the EU behaves like a big club closed off to the rest of the world. Subsidies to its members and free trade between them, but little progress on FTAs outside the EU and no scope for member states to act unilaterally. Would Britain be better, long-term, going it alone?

With cheap labour, nothing would stop an independent Britain letting an influx of lowly-paid migrants workers in (except maybe the voters, and understandably so), so this argument doesn't really hold.

Overall I agree that the EU seems like a well-intentioned idea that has proved a failure. I just don't see any evidence that a big, creaking behemoth (and all the over-privileged ivory tower bureaucrats that accompany it) is better than multilateral agreements negotiated individually. I don't think its current form its sustainable (the referendum itself is evidence of that) and regardless of how the vote pans out, I wouldn't be surprised to see it either collapse spectacularly within the next 20-30 years, or see its reach (in terms of depth of integration, and possibly width) increasingly diminish.

Economically speaking? No, it wouldn't. Unless ~95+% of all economists are totally wrong (which is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it).

 

[Kabouter]

As it happens, we were talking about the house prices at work today and we couldn't figure out exactly how the prices will fall by 20%.

Supply isn't suddenly going to suddenly increase, repossessions might jump a bit but we're not going to see huge numbers, you can make the argument that foreign investors might be more cautious, but with Chinese buyers looking to take their money out of China by any means necessary and London being a relatively attractive destination (whether we stay in or not), I don't really see where the price collapse is going to come from.

I feel we were missing something obvious but we just couldn't put our finger on it.

If people have a harder time getting a mortgage (or affording one), demand will fall, which will drop prices.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

If people have a harder time getting a mortgage (or affording one), demand will fall, which will drop prices.

The thing is, prices at the moment mean a lot of people are exactly in that position where they simply can't afford a mortgage and yet prices are still relatively high.

Although a sharp increase in interest rates might make it even harder for the few who are able to successfully get a mortgage.

 

[TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared]

I've been mulling it over, and I think in the end, I will vote Remain. My area (Merseyside) was abandoned by the government pretty much for a long time, and EU cash has done a whole lot of good for at least Liverpool, as its a totally different place now to what it was. Of course I'm over simplifying it, but I think its a net positive.

 

[spuckthew]

I assume the voting for this will work by them just adding up every single vote for each side rather than some broken constituency/area-based mechanic where each 'area' secures a win for one side etc?

 

[CCS]

I've been mulling it over, and I think in the end, I will vote Remain. My area (Merseyside) was abandoned by the government pretty much for a long time, and EU cash has done a whole lot of good for at least Liverpool, as its a totally different place now to what it was. Of course I'm over simplifying it, but I think its a net positive.

This is really one of the key things for me. A lot of people complain about the EU destroying our sovereignty but, apart from the fact that that's an exaggeration, a lot of the time it's doing good things which our government isn't (see also: a lot of its directives on workers rights)

 

[Jezbollah]

Is anyone watching Corbyn on Sky right now?

 

[Tak3n]

many of you know I am constantly saying Boris Johnson is the next PM.... would seem also if you follow the money he is a shoe in, incredibly short odds on him

Next Prime Minister



Boris Johnson15/8 or 2.88 in new money
George Osbourne5/1
Michael Gove13/2
Theresa May13/2
Jeremy Corbyn 7/1
Sajid Javid14/1
Stephen Crabb16/1
Priti Patel20/1
Dan Jarvis20/1
Andrea Leadsom25/1
Phillip Hammond28/1
Jeremy Hunt28/1
Owen Paterson40/1
Lisa Nandy40/1
Dominic Raab40/1
Michael Fallon50/1
Liam Fox50/1
Penny Mordaunt50/1
Hilary Benn 50/1
Amber Rudd50/1
Liz Truss50/1
Graham Brady

 

[Pandy]

I assume the voting for this will work by them just adding up every single vote for each side rather than some broken constituency/area-based mechanic where each 'area' secures a win for one side etc?

I believe that's correct. All votes are counted together for a single National result.

There will be regional breakdowns, but I'm not sure to what level, and they won't change the result.

 

[JonathanEx]

I believe that's correct. All votes are counted together for a single National result.

There will be regional breakdowns, but I'm not sure to what level, and they won't change the result.

We'll have local declarations (300+ constituencies) in to about 11 regional declarations into one national declaration in Manchester. But yes, it's all votes totted up for that one actual result.