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[Psychotext]

2008, ask yourself, where were your so called experts then...

Not being specifically asked to research the likelihood of a crash?

You realise in this case that they've actually researched two different options. Far, far easier to come up with workable data than just happening to realise something is going to happen when working on other things.

 

[ClosingADoor]

More importantly, it's the farm owners who decided to employ cheaper labour and shirk local unemployed people. Immigrants only take these jobs because the opportunity is created by the prospective employers.

And employers do this because they are being squeezed from the top: supermarkets, sales legislation, etc.

True. But I can very much understand the view that if you are replaced by cheaper labor, that comes with some resentment and you might want to vote that possibility out. I don't fully agree with it, but I can understand the sentiment and don't blame people too much for that.

Agree, but neither should you place such value as this thread seems to imply, all I see is insults for anyone who dares to question these 'experts'

when in reality we should be challenging them, we should never be afraid to ask why now they are right, rather than believing what they say

Challenging them would mean you do your own research (or take research from other trusted sources) and tell them why they are wrong. The Leave camp hasn't done that. They are just ignoring the research, instead of showing us why it is wrong.

 

[milanbaros]

Agree, but neither should you place such value as this thread seems to imply, all I see is insults for anyone who dares to question these 'experts'

when in reality we should be challenging them, we should never be afraid to ask why now they are right, rather than believing what they say

People took issue with the fact your reason for doubting them was because they held the same opinion.

 

[El Topo]

True. But I can very much understand the view that if you are replaced by cheaper labor, that comes with some resentment and you might want to vote that possibility out. I don't fully agree with it, but I can understand the sentiment and don't blame people too much for that.

I think a certain level of frustration and resentment is understandable. In Germany I'm under the impression that many that lost their jobs or those that worked their life and have little to money to live with feel as if politics has stopped caring about them, that politicians feel like all they are is a (financial) liability.

 

[Tak3n]

People took issue with the fact your reason for doubting them was because they held the same opinion.

if you went to to the doctor because you were sick, and before you went someone said to you, dont use that doctor he missed my friends diagnosis of cancer...

would you still use them?

 

[ClosingADoor]

if you went to to the doctor because you were sick, and before you went someone said to you, dont use that doctor he missed my friends diagnosis of cancer...

would you still use them?

We are not talking about one doctor, but about hundreds. If the whole medical community missed my friends cancer, I wouldn't stop seeing doctors. I'd think that cancer was very difficult to spot.

 

[Tak3n]

oh oh

Farage gets the best IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings in final poll before referendum

 

[SomTervo]

True. But I can very much understand the view that if you are replaced by cheaper labor, that comes with some resentment and you might want to vote that possibility out. I don't fully agree with it, but I can understand the sentiment and don't blame people too much for that.

Absolutely, it will engender emotions and frustration. My point is that this frustration is misdirected at immigrants - but of course it is the natural response. I can understand it. But we should be educating people to look past the sentiment and at the facts.

 

[Acorn]

Agree, but neither should you place such value as this thread seems to imply, all I see is insults for anyone who dares to question these 'experts'

when in reality we should be challenging them, we should never be afraid to ask why now they are right, rather than believing what they say

Provide a counter point, you can't just look at experts opinions and say "no no I'm not listening". Either provide a counter point or just admit you want out just because.

 

[affleck1981]

if you went to to the doctor because you were sick, and before you went someone said to you, dont use that doctor he missed my friends diagnosis of cancer...

would you still use them?

I would go for a second opinion or a third and if they all said the same thing, I would believe them - that's their job. Kind of like how 90% of the 'experts' are saying remain - if only one said to remain, I may doubt them. But it's not one expert.

It's a really bad analogy.

 

[Principate]

if you went to to the doctor because you were sick, and before you went someone said to you, dont use that doctor he missed my friends diagnosis of cancer...

would you still use them?

And the doctor who caught your friends diagnosis as likely made a mistake before, who you also not that doctor because he's not a perfect infallible doctor. Even ignoring all this there's economists who predicted the recession who also predicted an economic downturn after a brexit, so Um not sure what your point even is.

 

[liquidtmd]

From what I gather the Leave vote is primarily supported from Racists and Xenophobes that equate immigration with a lack of blue collar jobs.

Factions of that support the Leave Campaign sure, but to say 'Primarily Supported' is dismissive and insulting to many who wish to Leave

I'm voting Remain but we as a country can't keep addressing these concerns from the Leave camp as all ramblings of racists, or we risk disenfranchising nearly 50% of the populace and only delaying another crisis moment like the one we face tomorrow.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

As someone from over the pond

 

[Tak3n]

Provide a counter point, you can't just look at experts opinions and say "no no I'm not listening". Either provide a counter point or just admit you want out just because.

Ok, I allready said I want take any experts viewpoint if they failed to see 2008....Now without spending hours trawling the net looking for names, which I don't have time for, I am going to take a stab in the dark I expect if we removed those experts, and only concentrate on those who predicted 2008, I suspect the amount for remain and the those for leave, wont be so far apart in numbers

Would you agree?

 

[Polari]

An old joke:

What do you call an economist with a prediction?

Spoiler

Wrong

 

[EdwardTeach]

Why do you have the Queen? Nothing stopping you dumping her.

The point of having a queen is purely to prevent us ever having the likes of Blair, Cameron, aTony Abbot or John Howard as president.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Ok, I allready said I want take any experts viewpoint if they failed to see 2008....Now without spending hours trawling the net looking for names, which I don't have time for, I am going to take a stab in the dark I expect if we removed those experts, and only concentrate on those who predicted 2008, I suspect the amount for remain and the those for leave, wont be so far apart in numbers

Would you agree?

So you have absolutely no idea if this is true, yet are taking it for granted.

No, I wouldn't agree. Please show me the evidence.

 

[ferrasvansen]

Ok, I allready said I want take any experts viewpoint if they failed to see 2008....Now without spending hours trawling the net looking for names, which I don't have time for, I am going to take a stab in the dark I expect if we removed those experts, and only concentrate on those who predicted 2008, I suspect the amount for remain and the those for leave, wont be so far apart in numbers

Would you agree?

Actually go check, first search on google gave me this and look at the first name, sound familiar, it should do he was on tv two days ago warning the UK it would be a disaster.

http://intheblack.com/articles/2015...-and-why-we-should-listen-to-them-from-now-on

 

[Tak3n]

Leaving is the equivalent of putting a gun to your head and pulling the trigger.

The GOP did this twice in the US refusing to raise our debt ceiling (which basically just is a means to continue to pay debts we already incurred).

From what I gather the Leave vote is primarily supported from Racists and Xenophobes that equate immigration with a lack of blue collar jobs. Something that has long persisted in people's minds, but has little to no evidence to support.

Not that there probably isn't inequalities to membership. But burning the whole house down to get rid of a few wasps is a very [ Southern] American thing to do.

statement like that is what make people vote leave, Cameron tried it once.... you should paint anyone who wants to vote leave as a racist, it is not fair and not called for

 

[Tak3n]

So you have absolutely no idea if this is true, yet are taking it for granted.

No, I wouldn't agree. Please show me the evidence.

yep, it is a gut feeling.... I dont have the hours to look at every expert in details

 

[Wrestlemania]

So Tak3n doesn't believe the experts about leaving being a disaster, except he does because at the same time he's saying that he expects 10-20 years of negative impact to the economy which would, by most measures, be a disaster. Make your mind up, Tak3n.

 

[Acorn]

Ok, I allready said I want take any experts viewpoint if they failed to see 2008....Now without spending hours trawling the net looking for names, which I don't have time for, I am going to take a stab in the dark I expect if we removed those experts, and only concentrate on those who predicted 2008, I suspect the amount for remain and the those for leave, wont be so far apart in numbers

Would you agree?

No, provide information. The burden is of proof is on you, that's how debates work.

 

[Tak3n]

Actually go check, first search on google gave me this and look at the first name, sound familiar, it should do he was on tv two days ago warning the UK it would be a disaster.

http://intheblack.com/articles/2015...-and-why-we-should-listen-to-them-from-now-on

Thanks, ok so we have 6, give me a bit and I will find you 6 experts who think leaving the EU wont be bad at all

 

[Heckler456]

You do seem to have ample time to take up half of the posts per page. Or to look up that poll, for that matter.

Or apparently to look up 6 experts in favor of leave.

 

[HandsomeCharles]

To take some credit back, those things happened before the age of enlightenment kicked off.

But I get what you're saying, and you're right. Just not to the point where we should start doubting the majority opinion without any solid evidence.

It was meant with a slightly "/s"-y tone

 

[Ashes]

You know there are a few companies who support brexit.
Tate and Lyle Sugars. They import sugar and are hit with tariffs. They compete with Beetroot sugar, which is given prominence in the EU, cause that's what's big in the EU. In fact they've incurred significant charges. But I'm not sure you can grow cane sugar in Europe. So that tariff is not going to change.

Then you have Dyson, who are huge sellers of vacuums in Europe. Except they've moved factories to Malaysia, so they are going to be hit with tariffs.

Neither Tate and Lyle Sugars or Dyson are likely to be the worst hit in a reccession. You don't stop buying sugar and those who buy expensive Hoovers don't tend to stop buying expensive products.

They are supporting Brexit because it benefits them.
The question is who else does it benefit. The deafening silence speaks volumes.

 

[ClosingADoor]

yep, it is a gut feeling.... I dont have the hours to look at every expert in details

True. People don't have the time to research this all. That is why we have experts, who's job it is to do that for us. You see the problem here?

 

[Ravensmash]

An old joke:

What do you call an economist with a prediction?

Spoiler

Wrong

What do you call 1000 economists with a prediction?

Spoiler

A group probably worth listening to.

(Sorry )

 

[ferrasvansen]

Thanks, ok so we have 6, give me a bit and I will find you 6 experts who think leaving the EU wont be bad at all

ah but your moving the goalposts now, you said who also predicted 2008 too.

 

[Tak3n]

Tak3n doesn't believe the experts about leaving being a bad thing, except he does because at the same time he's saying that he expects 10-20 years of negative impact to the economy. Make your mind up, Tak3n.

the difference is, me thinking there will be a downturn, and people acting like businesses are going to up roots and leave the UK

 

[ExtremePopcorn]

if you went to to the doctor because you were sick, and before you went someone said to you, dont use that doctor he missed my friends diagnosis of cancer...

would you still use them?

Ignoring the economists, what is your explanation for the majority of business leaders, experts in their field, being for Remain?

What about the 200 senior healthcare professionals who are for Remain?

What about the 150 fellows of the Royal Society who are for Remain?

What about 100 university leaders who are for Remain?

What about the 300 leaders of the Creative Industries who are for Remain?

What about the 300 historians who are for Remain?

What about the 13 nobel laureates who are for Remain?

How do you discount the opinions of these experts?

 

[OverBlood 3]

I'm getting sick of Tak3n shitting up this thread with absolute utter bollocks that he's been proven to be talking. I'd mute him but he constantly posts, constantly adding nothing to the discussion.

 

[Acorn]

You know there are a few companies who support brexit.
Tate and Lyle Sugars. They import sugar and are hit with tariffs. They compete with Beetroot sugar, which is given prominence in the EU, cause that's what's big in the EU. In fact they've incurred significant charges. But I'm not sure you can grow cane sugar in Europe. So that tariff is not going to change.

Then you have Dyson, who are huge sellers of vacuums in Europe. Except they've moved factories to Malaysia, so they are going to be hit with tariffs.

Neither Tate and Lyle Sugars or Dyson are likely to be the worst hit in a reccession. You don't stop buying sugar or expensive Hoovers.

They are supporting Brexit because it benefits them.
The question is who else does it benefit. The deafening silence speaks volumes.

Anyone who wants to strip away rights that will effect the voters for leave the most.

 

[Tak3n]

ah but your moving the goalposts now, you said who also predicted 2008 too.

Sorry, I might be missing something but that link says

6 economists who predicted the global financial crisis, as I understood it our debate was I was going to find you 6 economists to counter that

 

[milanbaros]

Ok, I allready said I want take any experts viewpoint if they failed to see 2008....Now without spending hours trawling the net looking for names, which I don't have time for, I am going to take a stab in the dark I expect if we removed those experts, and only concentrate on those who predicted 2008, I suspect the amount for remain and the those for leave, wont be so far apart in numbers

Would you agree?

How many economists were even asked about their opinion on whether there would be a financial crisis in 2008?

 

[FlammableD]

the difference is, me thinking there will be a downturn, and people acting like businesses are going to up roots and leave the UK

Why would they hang around through 20 years of a bad economy when they could easily shift off to Europe and make more money?

 

[BanGy.nz]

...Please don't mess up the world economy because too many experts agree that leaving is bad idea.

 

[Jackpot]

Does anyone know if there are any protests planned for Trump's visit? Aside from the Mexican flags.

no, I am not....can you not even see how that causes a issue....anyone who did not see 2008 can not be trusted..... it does not make you question it at all? you are happy just to let them off that

People have repeatedly pointed you to experts who saw 2008 coming and you've ignored them every time.

if you went to to the doctor because you were sick, and before you went someone said to you, dont use that doctor he missed my friends diagnosis of cancer...

would you still use them?

The guy was expressly asking about your explanation that experts must be wrong if they all come to the same conclusion and how you changed your argument when people called you on it.

 

[HazySaiyan]

True. People don't have the time to research this all. That is why we have experts, who's job it is to do that for us. You see the problem here?

But you can't believe them because they all agree! That's how it works!

 

[ferrasvansen]

Sorry, I might be missing something but that link says

6 economists who predicted the global financial crisis, as I understood it our debate was I was going to find you 6 economists to counter that

It was just an example to show how easy it was to find such info and how ironic the first name was the man most recognised as being main expert who warned seriously about 2008. Hence the name Mr Doom, tends to be if he talks, countries listen.

 

[Tak3n]

I'm getting sick of Tak3n shitting up this thread with absolute utter bollocks that he's been proven to be talking. I'd mute him but he constantly posts, constantly adding nothing to the discussion.

I agree, and I dont want that, but if I dont reply it looks like I am fly by posting, so I am caught...

so either I dont post or we have to accept shit is going to look messed up....this thread allready lost the poster who said he got rounded on for saying he was voting leave... I am more ready to take it

there is know 5 replies since I posted this, if I reply to all I am shitting the thread, if I dont reply I am a coward..... the irony

 

[Polari]

Ok, I allready said I want take any experts viewpoint if they failed to see 2008....Now without spending hours trawling the net looking for names, which I don't have time for, I am going to take a stab in the dark I expect if we removed those experts, and only concentrate on those who predicted 2008, I suspect the amount for remain and the those for leave, wont be so far apart in numbers

Would you agree?

I don't think that's right. I think the wider point is long-term no one really knows. Not even the "experts".

While I agree that leaving the EU will be damaging to the UK's economy in the short-term (like any major institutional change), less clear is what the impact will be long-term, because anyone who claims they can predict the future is either a liar or a moron. It might be that the EU stumbles, and through being able to negotiate trade deals bilaterally and exercise greater control over immigration policy the UK is better off. If you're personally skeptical about the sustainability of the EU (like I certainly am) then you're probably going to lean towards this worldview. If you're less skeptical, you probably won't and think the UK is better in.

 

[sohois]

Ok, I allready said I want take any experts viewpoint if they failed to see 2008....Now without spending hours trawling the net looking for names, which I don't have time for, I am going to take a stab in the dark I expect if we removed those experts, and only concentrate on those who predicted 2008, I suspect the amount for remain and the those for leave, wont be so far apart in numbers

Would you agree?

It's quite likely that of those who predicted a crash, only a tiny number have even weighed in on brexit. First of all, that would make a pathetically small sample size. Secondly, selecting only for those who foresaw a crash coming then does nothing to suggest higher accuracy. People who predicted correctly then could have got it wrong on countless other occasions, or you could end up with a ton of doomsayers who just (wrongly) predicted crashes every year. So I'm not sure why we would place greater weight on this specific selection just because they got one major event right.

In fact, I'm pretty sure if you look at the past 100 or so quarters of economic activity, you'll find most major economic institutions to have a prediction record of greater than 95% for direction of growth and I'd imagine fairly low variance from the percentage size. Though I don't have the data to hand, I would imagine that in general economists are quite accurate with their near term predictions; the issue, as some may be aware, is that when they are wrong they are really catastrophically wrong, the so-called Black Swan event. But there is simply no scope for a positive black swan from a brexit, the only likelihood of a black swan is that the damage from Brexit is far worse than even they imagined.

All in all, your dismissal of expert opinions seems to have no basis in reality

 

[ibrahima]

Would you agree?

What are you even on about.

Are you saying we should just ignore every person who is ever wrong about something in their field.

You're tying yourself in knots mate.

Listen I can understand you saying that a brexit makes sense to you on your gut intuition, I'm not going to agree with you but at least at that point we've separated ourselves from a logical discussion.

 

[Ravensmash]

the difference is, me thinking there will be a downturn, and people acting like businesses are going to up roots and leave the UK

Why would multinational businesses keep investing money in an economy which is uncertain and likely trending downwards?

What would be the attraction of sticking with us when they'd be able to move to Berlin and take advantage of EU trade and the biggest economy in Europe?

I really want this answered, I'm fed up of the merry go round that this campaign has been.

 

[mrklaw]

I've only been occasionally peeking in this thread myself. Been mostly in the Reddit thread.

Obviously lots of reasons why I want to leave/ stay but overall nothing really benefits me as part of the working class.
I'm not strongly in this camp. I'm just leaning into it.

If we left, we would likely have similar workers protection as the US, which is the ideal 'free market above all' philosophy the Tories love so much. It'd be a little easier to hire people probably, but a whole lot easier to fire you.

 

[ClosingADoor]

I agree, and I dont want that, but if I dont reply it looks like I am fly by posting, so I am caught...

so either I dont post or we have to accept shit is going to look messed up....this thread allready lost the poster who said he got rounded on for saying he was voting leave... I am more ready to take it

there is know 5 replies since I posted this, if I reply to all I am shitting the thread, if I dont reply I am a coward..... the irony

Nobody really minds you for voting Leave. But the reasons you post for doing that are not based in any facts or are just objectively wrong, so people call you out on that.

People should vote the way they want of course, but the spread of misinformation is hurtful for the debate and having an actual meaningful discussion or even referendum. This goes both ways, but the Leave side is more guilty of it.

 

[Chinner]

Reading Tak3ns post. Lol, and to think I was asked to tone down the trolling!

 

[Acorn]

If we left, we would likely have similar workers protection as the US, which is the ideal 'free market above all' philosophy the Tories love so much. It'd be a little easier to hire people probably, but a whole lot easier to fire you.

Yep the no fault dismissal they thought about bringing in will be back on the table.

 

[JonathanEx]

Reading Tak3ns post. Lol, and to think I was asked to tone down the trolling!

Yes but we can tell the difference when you do it