CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%

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It's only right that 2016 ends with Trump being the president seeing as it's shaping up to be one of the worst years in living memory.
 
eBay Huckster said:
i feel like it's one national poll that is literally still in fucking july
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wait until Trump calls her a fraud bank hack right to her face in a debate. the american people will eat that shit up.

lol

what are the odds he tells her of all the times she took money from him in exchange for promises?
 
UnemployedVillain said:
gintama-laugh-o.gif
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poorly placed watermark is poorly placed

Kurtofan said:
Bernie was your only hope.
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Trump would have steamrolled him with ease.
 
I'm scared.

It will be the perfect storm when Trump is elected and Theresa activates article 50. The markets will be in disarray.

The 2008 recession had nothing on what's about to come if we keep going in this direction.
 
DavidDesu said:
No because he's been attacked again and again all throughout the nomination process from everyone inside his own party and out with it and he's the Republican nominee now...
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so basically, he's teflon because a bunch of has-been fuckwits and jim gilmore were too incompetent to coalesce behind a single anti-trump candidate with several months lead time? got it.

TheFatOne said:
What's the demographic breakdown in the poll? Tired and can't seem to find it.
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http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf

of note: they don't even have a breakdown for the 18-34 demo and he's randomly outperforming romney with both women and non-whites.

like i said. noise.
 
Ya'll need to stop feaking out about outliers in either direction. They mean squat. Take the average and freak out if that moves considerably.
 
obin_gam said:
538 updated 19 hours ago have Hillary still in the lead though:

Code: 
[B]Electoral votes[/B]
Hillary Clinton 286.5
Donald Trump 251.3
Gary Johnson 0.2

[B]Popular vote[/B]
Hillary Clinton 47.2%
Donald Trump 45.3%
Gary Johnson 6.2%
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Lol with 2% and months to go for a candidate supposedly terrible and easy to defeat. Meanwhile the Dems conference is going to be overshadowed by a policy selection which will clearly not be uniting of the left.

When the left loses elections it's divided. The right doesn't have this issue as they will just unite behind what benefits them the most. Helps being White and having Trump as a leader. Thats a simple fact and the Dems need to get over themselves and start tackling the political reality and court the white working class vote.
 
The fact that he can even lead in a single poll despite all the stunts he pulled is a very damning verdict for the entire country even if he loses at the end. What if someone comes along who isn't a complete idiot next time? That one might win the entire thing
 
120v said:
omg one poll time to panic
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It's not reason to panic, but it does illustrate the fact that there is a significant percentage of the population that will vote for this guy in and he could win if proclaimed democratic voters once again drop the ball in terms of turnout.
 
the only truly scary part is how easily someone can get in this position with basically zero functioning policy initiatives spelled out minus being a huge fucking racist. America almost deserves this shit for being so goddamn dumb.
 
07-minister.jpg

He has no chance for the nomination, Jeb Bush will make it.
Ok ok, he got the nomination, but no way minorities and women vote for him over Hillary.
Oooook, the polls favor him, but hey, it's a few months out, debates are still coming, and that's good, because reason is obviously what americans listen to.
 
A bump after that trainwreck? Is it opposite day in America?

I feel he's working some sort of mantra on the American people where the more people see and hear his name no matter positive or negative the more familiar and comfortable with him they become.
 
eBay Huckster said:
so basically, he's teflon because a bunch of has-been fuckwits and jim gilmore were too incompetent to coalesce behind a single anti-trump candidate with several months lead time
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He's Teflon because a distressingly sizeable portion of the country both 1) put feelings over facts and 2) are racist on some level, and are now being emboldened and legitimized like never before. They can't be dissuaded with actual true statements because those literally don't matter, and now that it's all out in the open it doesn't matter anymore because his supporters aren't afraid to say they like the racist guy and the racist things he says. Sure, they code it with "he says it like it is", but that's about as thin of a veil as physically possible.
 
Xe4 said:
Ya'll need to stop feaking out about outliers in either direction. They mean squat. Take the average and freak out if that moves considerably.
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Average polls are useless. Methodology is king and chucking in a bunch of utterly unrelated polls hides underlying trends.
 
mercenar1e said:
wait until Trump calls her a fraud bank hack right to her face in a debate. the american people will eat that shit up.

lol

what are the odds he tells her of all the times she took money from him in exchange for promises?
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Damn. I just pictured her sweating and melting after that.

It should've been Bernie.


teruterubozu said:
The margin of error is 3.5%, so Stein could very well have zero support.
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Margin errors don't work like that.
 
Greenpaint said:
I think it should tell people something that at least 44% of people are ready to support him, even if they will eventually change their minds.
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It tells me that people who have supported a party of racists are willing to support a racist. Blind love for the (R) aint nothing new. He was always going to get at least Romney levels of white support.
 
I will laugh/cry if Trump actually comes out and wins while democrat voters proclaim 'b-but the real polls said we would win'. Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug.

Like Moff said above, the same type of arrogant tosh was said by democrats in regard to him getting the republican nomination.
 
GasProblem said:
Eh, its only scary if Trump stays in the lead after the DNC.
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it's only scary if he takes and keeps the lead in every remotely close state after the DNC. national polling counts for fuck all except for making quick and easy scare threads

gallup literally got national polling so wrong in the last cycle that they no longer do horserace polls

usa today/gallup had a 17-point national swing in a single day in 2008 in mccain's favor immediately after the RNC
 
eBay Huckster said:
so basically, he's teflon because a bunch of has-been fuckwits and jim gilmore were too incompetent to coalesce behind a single anti-trump candidate with several months lead time? got it.



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf

of note: they don't even have a breakdown for the 18-34 demo and he's randomly outperforming romney with both women and non-whites.

like i said. noise.
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Was looking through this. Doesn't seem like they have simple breakdown of total votes then what percentage of each fit into what demographic. Wanted to see of all the people polled what percentage was white, Hispanic, etc. Also that non white margin of error is pretty high.
 
BouncyFrag said:
We will have a better image of how things stand after the polling for the DNC is done.
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Absolutely. Given how Americans responded to his speech at the convention I am not surprised at all to see his numbers go up.

However, very surprised at Melania's approval numbers going up, though...
 
GasProblem said:
Eh, its only scary if Trump stays in the lead after the DNC.
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No, it's scary now. He is way too close. The way things are trending (Wikileaks, mass shootings) his support will tick upwards. I'm not sure how Clinton can stem the tide. Demographics, don't fail us now.
 
Holy shit. Relax people. 1) It's coming straight out of their convention, a bounce is expected. 2)The US Presidency isn't decided on national polling. 3)Wait a week after the DNC and check back to see how the polling goes.

If he suddenly surges ahead in state polling in places like FL/PA/VA, then you start to worry. Right now, it's nothing. And Johnson/Stein aren't touching those numbers come the fall.

That doesn't mean be complacent. But holy Jesus. Don't go the Michael Moore idiot route.
 
eBay Huckster said:
okay, dean chambers
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Brexit was hidden in average polls but identified through several methodologies. Treating any polling company off trend as an outlier also cause UK polling companies to manipulate their panels to not be 'outliers' - turned out many of those outliers were correct.
 
Much like Brexit it's also about the likelihood of voting. Young people and minorities are way less likely to vote than old white people.
 
Speedy Blue Dude said:
Don't worry. We had faith your country would do the right thing. And you did. You passed Brexit.

Have faith we'll do the right thing. Trump will win with 51% if he needs to. But have faith in us.

We'll not only make "America great again!", we'll "Make the Earth great again."

LETS GO (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧ ✧ﾟ･: *ヽ(◕ヮ◕ヽ)
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This is sarcasm right?

Sometimes I genuinely can’t tell...
 
Brinbe said:
Holy shit. Relax people. 1) It's coming straight out of their convention, a bounce is expected. 2)The US Presidency isn't decided on national polling. 3)Wait a week after the DNC and check back to see how the polling goes.

If he suddenly surges ahead in state polling in places like FL/PA/VA, then you start to worry. Right now, it's nothing. And Johnson/Stein aren't touching those numbers come the fall.
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So don't worry. Go back to bed, America. lol.
 
Speedy Blue Dude said:
Don't worry. We had faith your country would do the right thing. And you did. You passed Brexit.

Have faith we'll do the right thing. Trump will win with 51% if he needs to. But have faith in us.

We'll not only make "America great again!", we'll "Make the Earth great again."

LETS GO (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧ ✧ﾟ･: *ヽ(◕ヮ◕ヽ)
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Please tell me this is a troll, I've not seen any Trump supporting gaffers yet.

But Christ on a bike Brexit is a fucking horrid idea, and so is Trump.
 
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