CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%
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eBay Huckster
Member
you'll have to excuse me if i don't think an argument can be made in good faith that the landfill* that is UK polling has anything to do with an opinion research sector where what amounted to a simple polling average at the state level (sam wang's "model") could nail every result twice in a row (and come very close in midterms even with turnout models being way off)
* - with apologies to landfills
* - with apologies to landfills
So much this. I don't get how people can still play this guy and his supporters down, this bump shouldn't be considered as because of the convention but despite...
He has no chance for the nomination, Jeb Bush will make it.
Ok ok, he got the nomination, but no way minorities and women vote for him over Hillary.
Oooook, the polls favor him, but hey, it's a few months out, debates are still coming, and that's good, because reason is obviously what americans listen to.
Black Republican
Member
massivekettle
Member
They do exist. They are just afraid to post...
DragonSworne
Banned
We really need to start having a competency questionnaire prior to being allowed to vote.
teruterubozu
Member
Because if you diablos then you're a Bernie/Trump supporter or some twisted logic.
True Savior
Member
First Marvel movies and now Trump? America please.
Wait so what caused the bump?
WadiumArcadium
Member
We could have done with one of those in Britain.
Err, no. Factually, the best predictor of the election has been a completely unweighted, or very light weighted average of the polls. That is a fact.
Brexit wasn't "hid" in anything. Poll averages showed it was going to be a close race and it was. The final result was well within the margin if error. Some polls will be outliers, others average, but if you take all of them as a whole, you get a good picture.
I still doubt he will win. Even if he starts topping Clinton in the polls after the bounces and debates I still think he'll lose.
Although I think we're in for a bumpy ride.
And I called him winning the nomination from the start.
You must be young.
Although I think we're in for a bumpy ride.
And I called him winning the nomination from the start.
You must be young.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Simple.
"librul bullies" say something bad about her = conservatives like her more
Even if "something bad" is "she gave a plagiarized speech and lied about everything" and it's literal fact.
Memento_Mori15
Member
With Nate Silver stating this:
I say he has a chance. Of course, it's a bit early to say right now. I just really hope the people in America make the right choice...
Jawbreaker
Member
Not gonna lie: I'm starting to get a little worried.
People need to stop clinging to demographics. Trump has the potential to get so much of the white vote that he just needs some slivers of minorities in battleground states. Plus you know Russia (and maybe even ISIS) has something cooking to help the Fascist win. Be very afraid.
RumblingRosco
Member
It surprises me how many people in here still act like there's no possibility Trump can win. Why have this attitude? How does this help push Clinton to win? I feel like the attitude people should have is "fuuuuuuu he could win. I should really go out and motivate people to vote for Clinton rather than just hand-wave it away!"
"The demographics means he can't win"
"No way he'll win"
"Well they just had the RNC"
"Wait for the DNC"
Yeah, maybe those all are reasonable things to say/wait for, but fuck it. You should be scared now and you should be convincing people why you don't like Trump and why they should vote for Clinton now, not a week before the elections when you suddenly realize you underestimated Trump for 12 months.
"The demographics means he can't win"
"No way he'll win"
"Well they just had the RNC"
"Wait for the DNC"
Yeah, maybe those all are reasonable things to say/wait for, but fuck it. You should be scared now and you should be convincing people why you don't like Trump and why they should vote for Clinton now, not a week before the elections when you suddenly realize you underestimated Trump for 12 months.
eBay Huckster
Member
so, like, why are you automatically assuming i and people like me are not mobilizing people because i have confidence in an outcome instead of chicken littling over every slight shift in the race
Right. It's not that facts don't matter as the other thread suggests... Reporting facts apparently has the opposite effect when it comes to Trump.
maabus1999
Member
I'm suspicious of their cross tabs. May be a bad poll but have to wait until more out.
teruterubozu
Member
Maybe your avatar suggests your sole ambition is to quell panic fires? I don't know, I'm just putting it out there.
Melkezadek
Member
And this is why Bernie-or-Busters can go fuck themselves.
eBay Huckster
Member
i see you, fam
Those battleground states look good now but it doesn't take too much to flip them red.
Why does it seem like people assume that there aren't new white voters out there? Did everyone forget about Karl Rove in 2004?
Blindly assuming he's going to win is bad, but so is constantly freaking out he will. One makes people assume he's not going to win and get complacent, while the other makes people assume he is going to win and not vote, cause why should they?
While there are some who handwave away Trump news, there are others that freak out st the littlest sign that everything could be not perfect. Liberals I find have the annoying habit of falling into the latter and having a panic attack if the election, their candidate, a bill, or whatever is not exactly as they like.
Elections, as with anything else in politics, is a balancing game, and the important act is to tip the ballance towards what you want, and not freak out if it doesn't go all the way your way.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Because that goes against the trends we've been seeing over the last 30 years
eBay Huckster
Member
while we're on the subject of quelling panic fires, this literally just broke:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/did-donaldtrump-get-bump-from-gop-convention/
Clinton 42 (+2)
Trump 42 (+2)
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/did-donaldtrump-get-bump-from-gop-convention/
Clinton 42 (+2)
Trump 42 (+2)
These numbers don't tell much state-by-state. For all we know he's running up the score in places with non-college educated whites in places like Alabama. But so what if he wins there by 90-10 or some shit. It doesn't do much for him in the electoral college. His wall right now is seriously 42/43/44 percent right now, while she's been all over the map, but at least she's crossed into that 50% threshold on occasion.
If 44% is the high point for his campaign after the fucking convention, HE is the one that's in trouble because he has no where to turn to for additional support. He's tapped out for support. She has TONS of room to grow.
If 44% is the high point for his campaign after the fucking convention, HE is the one that's in trouble because he has no where to turn to for additional support. He's tapped out for support. She has TONS of room to grow.
there's a chance he could win. there's also a chance i'll fall on the sidewalk and crack my head open on the way to work this morning. doesn't mean i need to flail around like a headless chicken every time i see a sidewalk
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
The assumption ive seen online most is that Romney got almost the entirety of the white vote and that wasnt enough for him to win. i think thats the reasoning.
He's serious. I've seen him in other threads. There are several Gaffers that support Trump. None of them have logical arguments to explain their reasons to support him.
Man, watching his acceptance speech at 3 am is like watching a horror film. Big populous talk about knowing the rigged system and being able to fix it. Mentioned Bernie twice, even claimed his supporters as his own.
Talk about immigrants being the cause of children's deaths and yelling about "LAW AND ORDER". Getting more and more animated with a nearly foaming at the mouth crowd.
20 American flags behind him.
This looks like those famous Hitler speeches. Instead of targeting Jews he targets every minority. All of them. Promoting some kind of weird purified "American" race that's "protected" from the disgusting filth of the un-pure. Saying he will restore law and order as if "the order" isn't followed and people need to know their place. Hell, "I AM THE LAW AND ORDER candidate".
Like these are the scenes that will be played in time travel movies in the future where someone goes back to stop Hitler, save Kennedy, and stop Trump.
We are truly witnessing fascism in America.
He is operating on a platform of pure fear and paranoia. The DNC is already on unsteady legs from establishment paranoia coming out of the primaries and he seems to want to keep hammering on that. These constant attacks being reported are just playing into his hands on his fear front.
I know this is just a convention bump, the DNC campaign machine isn't at full steam yet, and we are still far from voting time, but this actually concerns me. Fear beats logic (not going for the easy pun there) and he has plenty of ammo.
Just... everyone show up in November. I get people want to protest vote and all, but is it worth the chance? His platform is fear itself, and I fear it.
Talk about immigrants being the cause of children's deaths and yelling about "LAW AND ORDER". Getting more and more animated with a nearly foaming at the mouth crowd.
20 American flags behind him.
This looks like those famous Hitler speeches. Instead of targeting Jews he targets every minority. All of them. Promoting some kind of weird purified "American" race that's "protected" from the disgusting filth of the un-pure. Saying he will restore law and order as if "the order" isn't followed and people need to know their place. Hell, "I AM THE LAW AND ORDER candidate".
Like these are the scenes that will be played in time travel movies in the future where someone goes back to stop Hitler, save Kennedy, and stop Trump.
We are truly witnessing fascism in America.
He is operating on a platform of pure fear and paranoia. The DNC is already on unsteady legs from establishment paranoia coming out of the primaries and he seems to want to keep hammering on that. These constant attacks being reported are just playing into his hands on his fear front.
I know this is just a convention bump, the DNC campaign machine isn't at full steam yet, and we are still far from voting time, but this actually concerns me. Fear beats logic (not going for the easy pun there) and he has plenty of ammo.
Just... everyone show up in November. I get people want to protest vote and all, but is it worth the chance? His platform is fear itself, and I fear it.
Jawbreaker
Member
The link leads to an error page.
Subpar Scrub
Banned
What do you mean by "the franchise"?
Also those are some good blanket statements, keep it up man 👍
Velcro Fly
Member
Jokes on him then. Biden would fucking trounce Donald Trump
Considering the turnout, there is quite a bit of potential vote left there.
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Someone brought this up in the Wikileaks thread (i tried to find the post to give credit but was unsuccessful).. if Wikileaks doctors an email or makes some up entirely how will anyone know?
eBay Huckster
Member
2004. People were assuming Bush couldn't be re-elected because of demographics. Unfortunately Rove found that golden wedge issue of gay marriage to bring out the evangelicals who didn't normally vote. There are always more white people!
Like seriously demographics do not favor the Dems if Trump finds a way to win a bigger share of a larger white vote pie and steal some minority votes.
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