Dreams-Visions
Member
Chill guys! Hillbear will get her little bounce after the DNC right?
CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%
- Thread starter maquiladora
- Start date
- Status
A lot of these pro-Trump polls have weird breakdowns. Democrats major groups might be down from Obama's years but these polls have them down to an insane degree I don't believe.
eBay Huckster
Member
more to the point, polling will settle the fuck down in about a month, unlike OT's reaction to every individual poll
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Why cant he become a dictator?
DiscoJer
Member
Firstly, one of his whole campaign points is bragging that he will force the armed forces to commit war crimes - specifically, murdering the families of terrorists.
And who is going to check him? Commanders in Chief have been ordering the military to do stuff without any authorization from congress/senate for ages. He'll simply fire generals who don't obey him and promote those that will.
Secondly, he's not going to appoint conservative judges. At least not because they are conservative. Yeah, yeah, he floated a list he got from a conservative foundation's website. But that's because he tells Republicans what he thinks they want to here.
He's going to appoint whoever he feels like - people who are loyal to him personally.
My guess is that his first pick would be his sister
Not that it will matter. Plenty of politicians are known war criminals. Ex. Dick cheney iirc.
Why can't he be? Why won't he be? If he's got the public support to do what he wants what's to stop him from doing what he wants?
This is how dictatorships get started. He's already got a list of people to "purge."
The article says that the increased support for Trump largely comes from independents, which the Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Bernie-or-bust crowd is composed of. Yes, they are relevant. They are pushing the Hillary is untrustworthy narrative, loudly.
The New York Times article does help alleviate fears though. Thank god.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
He's been trending upward for weeks now thanks to the FBI investigation among other things.
That said, this poll in and of itself is meaningless. People need to be checking fivethirtyeight.
We've got checks and balances to prevent that. However, he can do a loooooot of damage to the country. Both, by people from the outside and her own citizens.
Jawbreaker
Member
Conservative Supreme Court appointments, emboldened white nationalists/supremacists, increase in racial profiling and surveillance, quasi-police state, boots on the ground against ISIS, deteriorating foreign relations, increase in domestic terror attacks, lots of protests and riots nationwide/increased racial tension. Pretty utopian, huh?
Angelus Errare
Banned
The oppressed always have to convince their oppressors that they deserve equal rights.
Souldriver
Member
In any sane world the shit show that was the RNC would have torpedoed Trumps numbers.
But this has been a sad constant this election season. No matter how terrible the things Trump says or does, the mere fact that he says or does anything, gives him a bump.
Terrifying.
But this has been a sad constant this election season. No matter how terrible the things Trump says or does, the mere fact that he says or does anything, gives him a bump.
Terrifying.
Jawbreaker
Member
Unfortunately.
eBay Huckster
Member
it's also helpful to look at what all the other people with statistical models are saying. the upshot's been providing this for the past few weeks and it's kinda illuminating
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
note that PEC, which was statistically closest in 2012 and tied with 538 in 2008, is significantly more bullish on clinton right now (in large part because it's just a straight average of state polls)
Melkezadek
Member
"None of that matters. It doesn't affect me."
That didn't stop Bush.
Jawbreaker
Member
Fallout 5?
Who's going to impose those checks and balances? The congress whose main activity was to sabotage the government in the past years? The congress who is ruled by the party who happily cheered Trump at the convention?
Bits N Pieces
Member
This about sums the situation up perfectly.
Epsilon-delta
Banned
Most independents from my experience are just Republicans in the closet. Instead of looking at independents pushing Trump over Hillary, you should first wonder why or how Trump has so much support in the first place.
Bernie-or-Bust people are insignificant; the fact is Trump has millions upon millions who believe in his racist, hateful rhetoric. The race shouldn't be this close to begin with.
He is pretty much at his ceiling at this point if we look at this poll.It will be time to panic if he ever gets close to 50 percent.Also,we do know from polling data that he seems to still be pissing off hispanics.Also,polling will never be able to capture Trump's really poor ground game currently and potential demographic turnout on election day in this election cycle.I been through this same song and dance again before with the federal election in Canada last year and the right wing party was always struggling to get past their ceiling in the polls. The other two political parties were more fluid in the polls.The same thing is happening here.Hilary seems to be more fluid in the polls while Trump is more static and can rarely every move past the low fourties in the polls.If Hilary can consolidate almost all the support from people on the left and center Trump is pretty much finished. It is very likely she does this eventually.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf
lol they didn't sample enough 18-35 YO voters. And his gains came from 50-64 YO suburban/rural white "independent" non-college grad male voters in the Midwest/South. Not surprising there.
He's running up the score with idiots.
lol they didn't sample enough 18-35 YO voters. And his gains came from 50-64 YO suburban/rural white "independent" non-college grad male voters in the Midwest/South. Not surprising there.
He's running up the score with idiots.
Trump was at his most popular when on stage ridiculing his opponents to their face. He has not done that in months, and honestly the trump hype has been tampered down since. If he gets on stage and starts talking smack to Hillary in a way most anti Hillary people wish they could, his numbers will rise again.
eBay Huckster
Member
you're aware that clinton experienced her most prolonged national polling bounce of the campaign thus far (with the lead expanding from +3 to +11) during a period where the republicans had 4 debates in 4 weeks, right
ExplodingKetchup
Member
I think people will quickly grow tired of Trump if he sticks to bullying tactics during the debates. Those who are tuning in to make up their minds between candidates will probably want to hear policy. They already know he can yell at people, they want to see if he really has substance. Maybe I'm overestimating the average viewer though haha.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Failure is relative. It was a colossal success for a certain portion of the public that doesn't exercise their capacity for self-analysis and just want to be massaged.
"I am your voice" indeed.
Jawbreaker
Member
Pretty much. If you're a white male (especially one with social conservative values), you don't have much to worry about under a Trump presidency. He's very much like a '60s Barry Goldwater or a Patrick Buchanan.
And_Gignac
Member
Morning Consult also has a big bump for Trump
44 (+5) to Clinton's 40.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...r-first-time-in-polls-history/article/2597534
😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐
44 (+5) to Clinton's 40.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...r-first-time-in-polls-history/article/2597534
😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐😐
Recently the term 'disenfranchised' is often used when describing Republican voter ID laws.
This is your fault!
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The problem here is that when Trump has good numbers, it fuels another rise in his numbers after. Many don't vote for him at first thinking he'd never win, but as his numbers rise a lot of those people suddenly see he could win and hop in to be on "the winner's side", in many cases to give the finger to "the system".
If it wasn't for the DNC this week chances are this bump would fuel another one by next week, a big one.
We'll see if things go really well at the DNC.
If it wasn't for the DNC this week chances are this bump would fuel another one by next week, a big one.
We'll see if things go really well at the DNC.
Melkezadek
Member
It's crazy. I don't believe in any god. I don't believe in signs. But here we have clear examples all over the globe that we shouldn't be as complacent as many are being.
We looking across the Atlantic to our English cousins with Brexit. Fear mongering and apathetic voters led them into a disastrous situation. We look to Turkey as see a beacon of secular democracy being dismantled by a dictator-lite, effectively becoming an autocracy. Global temperatures are rising and we have an entire political party who don't even recognize climate change.
Even with all of this, people think it's an ok idea to just sit on our hands and do nothing to stop it.
When speaking about life in the universe, scientists discuss the difficulty for a society to move past a type 0 civilization into a type 1. It's very possible that many worlds are unable to cross that line and end up destroying themselves. My understanding of things currently lead me to believe that despite what many religions says, there is nothing special about us. Maybe we just won't make it. Like so many worlds that probably didn't.
I'm losing faith in us to get it together.
We looking across the Atlantic to our English cousins with Brexit. Fear mongering and apathetic voters led them into a disastrous situation. We look to Turkey as see a beacon of secular democracy being dismantled by a dictator-lite, effectively becoming an autocracy. Global temperatures are rising and we have an entire political party who don't even recognize climate change.
Even with all of this, people think it's an ok idea to just sit on our hands and do nothing to stop it.
When speaking about life in the universe, scientists discuss the difficulty for a society to move past a type 0 civilization into a type 1. It's very possible that many worlds are unable to cross that line and end up destroying themselves. My understanding of things currently lead me to believe that despite what many religions says, there is nothing special about us. Maybe we just won't make it. Like so many worlds that probably didn't.
I'm losing faith in us to get it together.
Epsilon-delta
Banned
You are. Logic and reason goes out the door every election cycle; elections are emotionally driven.
boiled goose
good with gravy
The most ironic thing is that main argument of Hillary supporters here on GAF in her favor was that she would be a better candidate at stopping Trump than Bernie.
This was suggested time and time again in spite of polls showing the opposite. What happened when nate silver chose punditry over polling to make predictions?
Still early so let's hope this is temporary... but holy shit this is terrifying.
This was suggested time and time again in spite of polls showing the opposite. What happened when nate silver chose punditry over polling to make predictions?
Still early so let's hope this is temporary... but holy shit this is terrifying.
killertofu
Member
I don't know, I think people have jsut been watching the debates for a Trump show....
This is disheartening. To think we've made a lot of strides socially as a country these past 8 years and then shit like this sends us back to the stone age.
My anecdotes with independents completely differ here in Oregon. People who certainly care about fixing racial inequality, but feed greatly into the Crooked Hillary echo-chamber. I appreciate the argument though; the shift of independents to Donald supports the argument.
dapperbandit
Banned
EIN VOLK
EIN REICH
EIN TRUMP
EIN REICH
EIN TRUMP
And_Gignac
Member
Lana.gif, ha undeniable power.
- Status
Similar threads
- Poll