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[Eusis]

That's true. I just get this funny feeling he might take the "I'm taking you all with me" approach as he goes down in flames.

I could see this perhaps successfully happening... With the Republican Party. Pretty sure those who are liberal and against him are largely united, while the Republican Party is a dumpster fire. He might well convince people to go to polls and ONLY vote for him, or vote for him and against other republicans out of sheer spite.

Will be interesting to see what happens with the down ticket come November!

 

[SpeedySwaf]

Fox may have a conservative bias, but I think they've been doing this long enough to know how these things tend to end, and are aware enough of reality to know where fact ends and fiction begins (albeit often manipulating exactly where those points are for their viewers). I think after 2012 they're not ready to fall for another skewed poll narrative.

I guess what I'm getting at is that even they have a tolerance level for Trump, and if things keep up like this they may start coming down on him too. Not necessarily for moral or ethical reasons, but because they may start viewing him as the sole reason for why things are so bad in the election. And if/when Trump loses, they'll probably make an effort to paint the whole thing as being his fault, because otherwise Trump will just use the "rigged" narrative as a reason to run again in 2020, and possibly repeat this whole process with the same results.

 

[RPGCrazied]

We all know TYT hates HIllary, but are they seriously going to not vote? Their man is going to vote for her and wants her to be President.

 

[soundahfekz]

The comments on that tweet are delicious.

I just got a headache trying to comprehend how people can be so stupid

 

[Trouble]

Stage 1: This is rigged. I'm actually winning

Stage 2: It'd be really mean if you people let me lose. I'd be winning if you weren't letting me down and the media weren't lying about me

Stage 3: I actually don't care that much. Wow, you people really care if I lose. Not me, I'm cool like that. I tried and failed, big whoop, maybe you haters should grow up a bit and stop obsessing about it

Stage 4: Funny how I got you morons all riled up with a few little tweets and comments. Interesting how you played right into my hands. I just got a bunch of advertising and ratings for free. Thanks for confirming my hypothesis, for my social experiment, that this all was

Stage 5: I didn't run for President

Is stage 6 where we literally don't have a country any more?

 

[kevin1025]

Fox may have a conservative bias, but I think they've been doing this long enough to know how these things tend to end, and are aware enough of reality to know where fact ends and fiction begins (albeit often manipulating exactly where those points are for their viewers). I think after 2012 they're not ready to fall for another skewed poll narrative.

I guess what I'm getting at is that even they have a tolerance level for Trump, and if things keep up like this they may start coming down on him too. Not necessarily for moral or ethical reasons, but because they may start viewing him as the sole reason for why things are so bad in the election. And if/when Trump loses, they'll probably make an effort to paint the whole thing as being his fault, because otherwise Trump will just use the "rigged" narrative as a reason to run again in 2020, and possibly repeat this whole process with the same results.

Do you think he would actually run again? He'll be close to 75 at that point, and it's taking its toll on him now. He can't keep eating taco bowls and KFC at that age!

Plus I don't think sane minds can take another year of him. That would just be cruel at that point.

 

[Sblargh]

Is stage 6 where we literally don't have a country any more?

Stage 6 is where a modern and robust democracy devolved into a one-party faux-democracy via darwinism.

 

[Sianos]

The factor you're forgetting is primaries. The GOP has cultivated a base that has become increasingly hard-right, and anytime they perceive someone that's not a true-believer, there's always a nutjob willing to run against them that will go along with whatever the base wants.

The Republican Party primary process is ironically an excellent example of a failure to solve coordination problem.

In the short term, it is in the self-interest of Republican candidates to act as bombastically as possible and dog whistle into megaphones. Whoever does this the loudest will end up galvanizing the base the most, and thus win the primary process. However, this also dooms the party on the national stage.

If the seventeen members of the clown car all stayed calm, they'd still get the dedicated R vote and maybe have a shot at turning enough centrists to their side. But if one person escalates, there's no incentive at that point for the others to not also escalate alongside them. Those who stay quiet and try to come off as reasonable adults get nothing and zero recognition if even one person pops off and sucks up all the oxygen, whereas those who pop off can still get attention and book deals even if they do lose the primary.

And the damage is proving to be residual over time, as now even the starting point of discourse is already close to the point where it cannot be pivoted back, and any sort of escalation already pushes it across the line.

 

[tuffy]

Do you think he would actually run again? He'll be close to 75 at that point, and it's taking its toll on him now. He can't keep eating taco bowls and KFC at that age!

Plus I don't think sane minds can take another year of him. That would just be cruel at that point.

Trump can barely get through the campaign he's in now; it'll be a minor miracle if he can get to election day without some sort of public breakdown at the rate he's going. There's no way he's going to mount another run four years from now.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

The Republican Party primary process is ironically an excellent example of a failure to solve coordination problem.

In the short term, it is in the self-interest of Republican candidates to act as bombastically as possible and dog whistle into megaphones. Whoever does this the loudest will end up galvanizing the base the most, and thus win the primary process. However, this also dooms the party on the national stage.

If the seventeen members of the clown car all stayed calm, they'd still get the dedicated R vote and maybe have a shot at turning enough centrists to their side. But if one person escalates, there's no incentive at that point for the others to not also escalate alongside them. Those who stay quiet and try to come off as reasonable adults get nothing and zero recognition if even one person pops off and sucks up all the oxygen, whereas those who pop off can still get attention and book deals even if they do lose the primary.

And the damage is proving to be residual over time, as now even the starting point of discourse is already close to the point where it cannot be pivoted back, and any sort of escalation already pushes it across the line.

Never thought of the Republicans in a prisoner's dilemma but that's an interesting thought.

 

[Darryl M R]

So is r/The_Donald about to turn into r/S4P with conspiracy theories on why he is losing?

 

[Link]

The Republican Party primary process is ironically an excellent example of a failure to solve coordination problem.

In the short term, it is in the self-interest of Republican candidates to act as bombastically as possible and dog whistle into megaphones. Whoever does this the loudest will end up galvanizing the base the most, and thus win the primary process. However, this also dooms the party on the national stage.

If the seventeen members of the clown car all stayed calm, they'd still get the dedicated R vote and maybe have a shot at turning enough centrists to their side. But if one person escalates, there's no incentive at that point for the others to not also escalate alongside them. Those who stay quiet and try to come off as reasonable adults get nothing and zero recognition if even one person pops off and sucks up all the oxygen, whereas those who pop off can still get attention and book deals even if they do lose the primary.

And the damage is proving to be residual over time, as now even the starting point of discourse is already close to the point where it cannot be pivoted back, and any sort of escalation already pushes it across the line.

Excellent analysis. And while I enjoy the flaming car wreck the Republican Party has become, it's really bad for our democracy. I've always voted Democrat by choice, but it's increasingly becoming a choice by default. There are things about the Democratic Party that I'm not entirely happy with, but when the other option is the Republican Party, then what can I do?

And no, the answer is not to vote third party, especially since I'm in Florida.

 

[kevin1025]

Trump can barely get through the campaign he's in now; it'll be a minor miracle if he can get to election day without some sort of public breakdown at the rate he's going. There's no way he's going to mount another run four years from now.

You got me all excited for his next press conference. That thing is going to be a masterpiece.

 

[Steel]

Just a reminder, while we're on the subject, this is where the Republican party was on immigration in the 80's:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixi9_cciy8w

 

[Suikoguy]

Excellent analysis. And while I enjoy the flaming car wreck the Republican Party has become, it's really bad for our democracy. I've always voted Democrat by choice, but it's increasingly becoming a choice by default. There are things about the Democratic Party that I'm not entirely happy with, but when the other option is the Republican Party, then what can I do?

And no, the answer is not to vote third party, especially since I'm in Florida.

Single Party rule can work. For a bit of time anyway.

Negotiations about policy, at least on the Dem side can take place intra party. The larger the majority, the more left the policy will be. It's one of the primary reasons for the concessions made for the ACA.

Not sure what happens when you have one party control the presidency for a long period of time, but due to gerrymandering and other bullshit, are unable to take the house for any period of time. People tend to blame the government as a whole.

 

[PlayALLtheGames]

Honestly, why is she tied to Benghazi? I know people who hate her with a passion because of it and I don't think they watch Fox News but they probably have gotten soundbites. I can't see them being very happy if she wins and I want to be able to douse their hatred with a little sense.

Because she was the SoS at the time and Repubs needed a way to reduce her popularity and hurt her presidential run.

The Republican-led investigation ended up blaming the military for the event. She was essentially exonerated by the people who wanted desperately to find her culpable and people STILL mention it as evidence of her lying or some such bullshit. Even people who acknowledge that it was a witch-hunt subconsciously refer to it when they talk about her. It's like, "Yeah, I know Benghazi was bullshit, but still..."

Had these fake scandals never been raised her favorability and trustworthiness levels would almost certainly be higher.

 

[Baybars]

The republican cadidates against trump all suffered because of one guy. Rubio

Bush went rubio. Cruz went after rubio. Rand paul went rubio. Christie went after rubio. No one went after trump. Until right in the end when it was too little too late

 

[FrenchMovieTheme]

I have a feeling there's going to be a "If I don't win the Presidency I'll fucking kill myself and it'll be your fault!" phase.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bulsXLM_2KE

 

[FStubbs]

Just a reminder, while we're on the subject, this is where the Republican party was on immigration in the 80's:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixi9_cciy8w

In the 80s the GOP was running full on Southern Strategy/dogwhistles, but the heart and soul of the GOP was still the plains states like Kansas and Nebraska. It was later when you saw the shift to the GOP being at heart an actual southern party, and that's why you're seeing what you're seeing today.

 

[Link]

The republican cadidates against trump all suffered because of one guy. Rubio

Bush went rubio. Cruz went after rubio. Rand paul went rubio. Christie went after rubio. No one went after trump. Until right in the end when it was too little too late

To be fair, they were just trying to prevent the robot uprising. They've all seen Terminator.

 

[Freshmaker]

Had to look up Pygmalion, still not sure what the author was getting at.

They wanted Trump to pivot to sanity so that he wouldn't scare away the broader voting public. Trump didn't. He never learned to walk and talk.

 

[MCN]

...just said maybe he'll unban the Washington Post since lately they've been much nicer.

GOP Presidential Candidate. Literally threatening to revoke and grant press credentials based on how favorable coverage is.

Nothing you can do, folks. Although the first amendment people, maybe there is.

 

[boiled goose]

She won her primary nearly 10-15 points ahead without going into negative opposition research directly against sanders.

And she got creamed?

So 400 pledge delegate lead is now creamed in election history?

Sanders isn't a junior Senator and she didn't lose.

My guess is poster talking about obama.

 

[EatinOlives]

The republican cadidates against trump all suffered because of one guy. Rubio

Bush went rubio. Cruz went after rubio. Rand paul went rubio. Christie went after rubio. No one went after trump. Until right in the end when it was too little too late

Motherfuckers thought they were playing 5th dimensional chess by going after the guy in second place, when in reality they were just extremely stupid and were laughed off the primaries.

 

[FStubbs]

Motherfuckers thought they were playing 5th dimensional chess by going after the guy in second place, when in reality they were just extremely stupid and were laughed off the primaries.

Nah, it's simpler than that. They DID go after Trump but kept getting smacked down, so they went after Rubio to look tough because they wanted no part of Trump.

EDIT: Plus, you have to remember, the #2 guy for a good long time was Ben Carson.

 

[gutter_trash]

We all know TYT hates HIllary, but are they seriously going to not vote? Their man is going to vote for her and wants her to be President.

their HQ is in California, so TYT's bombastic chest pumping don't matter

 

[paradox121]

Stage 1: This is rigged. I'm actually winning

Stage 2: It'd be really mean if you people let me lose. I'd be winning if you weren't letting me down and the media weren't lying about me

Stage 3: I actually don't care that much. Wow, you people really care if I lose. Not me, I'm cool like that. I tried and failed, big whoop, maybe you haters should grow up a bit and stop obsessing about it

Stage 4: Funny how I got you morons all riled up with a few little tweets and comments. Interesting how you played right into my hands. I just got a bunch of advertising and ratings for free. Thanks for confirming my hypothesis, for my social experiment, that this all was

Stage 5: I didn't run for President

I totally see him spinning it that 'Hey, I wasn't even trying and I still got __% of the vote against Crooked Hillary and the Biased Media. Imagine what will happen come 2020 when I really put my all in to it!'

 

[Armaros]

Sanders isn't a junior Senator and she didn't lose.

My guess is poster talking about obama.

That was even more stupid considering from all sides, it was stated to be an insanely hard fought primary, with an incredible campagin and canadiate in Obama.

 

[Spiral Insanity]

We all know TYT hates HIllary, but are they seriously going to not vote? Their man is going to vote for her and wants her to be President.

TYT has unfortunately become as biased as the big media that they rebelled against. It is sad.

 

[gutter_trash]

Senators make the worst Presidential candidates IMO due to their voting history often get used against them in the General Election every time.

Obama and McCain both being Senators canceled each other out

usually Governors tend to cream Senators in the General Election.

"I actually did vote for it before I voting against it" LOL

 

[yanipheonu]

I totally see him spinning it that 'Hey, I wasn't even trying and I still got __% of the vote against Crooked Hillary and the Biased Media. Imagine what will happen come 2020 when I really put my all in to it!'

Oh man. That's totally what's going to happen.

One wonders if a second Trump candidacy is something even the GOP won't allow, or of they'll be just as impudent stopping him a second time.

I'd easily guess the latter. You have to wonder how the Trump nuts hold up after he loses the election.

 

[Baybars]

Nah, it's simpler than that. They DID go after Trump but kept getting smacked down, so they went after Rubio to look tough because they wanted no part of Trump.

EDIT: Plus, you have to remember, the #2 guy for a good long time was Ben Carson.

Yeah but no one believed ben carson was a serious candidate. They all went after rubio because conventional wisdom was outside of trump he was the one of favourites to win. The betting markets had him to win for a long time.

I mean i remember bush had like a super pac which had 100 million in the bank. They used all of it on rubio lol.

 

[BradC00]

So is r/The_Donald about to turn into r/S4P with conspiracy theories on why he is losing?

They don't think he is losing but they are saying the same shit about if he loses its rigged, etc

 

[Baybars]

To be fair, they were just trying to prevent the robot uprising. They've all seen Terminator.

Alot has been said about rubio malfunction but the guy can talk when he does not hamstring himself by avoiding fights which was the cause of the NH glitch

I mean look at this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztdzg5kssXk

 

[Imperfected]

Yeah but no one believed ben carson was a serious candidate. They all went after rubio because conventional wisdom was outside of trump he was the one of favourites to win. The betting markets had him to win for a long time.

I mean i remember bush had like a super pac which had 100 million in the bank. They used all of it on rubio lol.

I wonder if, when the dust has settled, Republicans will have spent more money trying to stop Trump from becoming President than trying to help him become President.

I suppose, on the plus side, a bunch of obscenely rich Republican donors (and maybe even Trump himself) throwing money into the Trumpster Fire for null total effect is the closest we'll ever get these people to come to actually paying their taxes.

 

[TheUntamedLegend]

What in the living fuck is wrong with these people.

Carl Paladino is a nut and joke of a candidate who got absolutely destroyed when he tried to run for Governor of New York in (the Republican tidal wave of) 2010.
Paladino's failure of a campaign pretty much played out exactly how a Trump run would pan out in New York, and Donald actually believes he has a shot here.

 

[shaowebb]

No person so weak is fit to serve regardless of ideology.

If you can't even handle reporters how on Earth can you handle world powers without catastrophe?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Senators make the worst Presidential candidates IMO due to their voting history often get used against them in the General Election every time.

Obama and McCain both being Senators canceled each other out

usually Governors tend to cream Senators in the General Election.

"I actually did vote for it before I voting against it" LOL

Clinton's time in the Senate has been essentially ignored by Trump.

 

[Concept17]

I can't wait for him to lose and disappear like Romney did in 2012, where the last thing you see of him is a picture of him buying groceries in normal clothes.

 

[Souldriver]

TYT has unfortunately become as biased as the big media that they rebelled against. It is sad.

Always has been. It's just now that most of their own viewers recognize it.

 

[Link]

Clinton's time in the Senate has been essentially ignored by Trump.

What? He brings up her vote on the Iraq War literally all the time.

I can't wait for him to lose and disappear like Romney did in 2012, where the last thing you see of him is a picture of him buying groceries in normal clothes.

You're deluding yourself if you think this is what's going to happen.

 

[NotTheGuyYouKill]

These Trump surrogates on CNN and getting crazier and crazier. They're pretty much just openly ranting and fighting with the anchors.

 

[Slayven]

The thing about gop debates is he was up there with a minimum of 4 other crazies at a time. He could hide in the crowd. GE not so much

 

[Mumei]

Alot has been said about rubio malfunction but the guy can talk when he does not hamstring himself by avoiding fights which was the cause of the NH glitch

I mean look at this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztdzg5kssXk

The chutzpah is revolting.

The thing about gop debates is he was up there with a minimum of 4 other crazies at a time. He could hide in the crowd. GE not so much

I don't think that his crazy was hiding on those stages at all; I think it was just that his brand of crazy was a perfect match for a large chunk of the primary audience.

 

[iRAWRasaurus]

These Trump surrogates on CNN and getting crazier and crazier. They're pretty much just openly ranting and fighting with the anchors.

Yeah just watched a few of them.

 

[Ape]

These Trump surrogates on CNN and getting crazier and crazier. They're pretty much just openly ranting and fighting with the anchors.

Link link link pls

 

[Imperfected]

The thing about gop debates is he was up there with a minimum of 4 other crazies at a time. He could hide in the crowd. GE not so much

And he had extremely easy targets to bully, plus the advantage of the natural herd instinct kicking in and causing the others to dogpile on his victims.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Senators make the worst Presidential candidates IMO due to their voting history often get used against them in the General Election every time.

Obama and McCain both being Senators canceled each other out

usually Governors tend to cream Senators in the General Election.

"I actually did vote for it before I voting against it" LOL

There probably is something to this reasoning as a Senator one's record is quite a bit messier than a Governor's due to the nature of the two jobs. Empirical data would seem to back this up as well. If we discount 2008 since it was a Senator vs. Senator matchup, the last time a Senator won election was JFK in 1960. Since then (again discounting 2008) Senators have been nominated and lost in 1964, 1972, 1996, and 2004. During that same period Governors have been nominated and won in 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2000 while losing in 1988 and 2012. For the purposes of this analysis, I am counting Mitt Romney as a Governor because it was the political office he had held most recently while not counting, e.g., Richard Nixon as a Senator because he had been Vice President after between then and running for President.

But there's always the issue of having little data to go on and all kinds of confounding factors. Goldwater (1964) and McGovern (1972) held views that were well outside the mainstream of American politics. Also, McGovern and Dole (1996) were running against popular incumbents. On the other hand, Reagan (1980) and Clinton (1992) benefitted from running against unpopular incumbents. One could argue that running against another Senator allowed Obama to break the Senator "curse." On the other hand, given Obama's gifts as a politician and the conditions of the 2008 election, I would argue that he would've beaten any Republican that election. Incidentally, the last time a presidential election featured a Senator vs. a Governor was 1920 (the Senator won).

To make a long story short, I generally agree with your thesis, but I think the evidence is weaker than appears at first glance, and the effect isn't as large as sometimes supposed.

 

[jevity]

Crossposting from poli-gaf

Okay, so English is my second language but I'm still pretty confident that the words "novelty"
and "tradition" are not synonyms, but rather antonyms, right ?

Well, check out Katrina Pierson working her verbiose magic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAyuHcN9OHM

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

These Trump surrogates on CNN and getting crazier and crazier. They're pretty much just openly ranting and fighting with the anchors.

CNN gonna keep having them on though. It's good for business.