The gaming industry and an apparent lack of good judgment when setting release dates

M

mullet2000

Member
This has been something I've had a hard time understanding for some time now, and something I wanted to talk a little about.

The games industry is notorious for seemingly not considering the competition when setting release dates for products. (unless it's Call of Duty, but even that seems to not be a rule anymore, as per below) In the next few months I can think of two very prominent examples.


1. Titanfall 2 is releasing on October 28th. One week after Battlefield 1 and one week before Call of Duty Infinite Warfare/Modern Warfare remastered. On top of this, both Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2 are both published by EA.

Why do this? On top of those two games, Gears of War 4 is coming out next week as well. So outside of Titanfall we already have 3 huge shooters releasing. Even putting money aside, FPS fans have a time management issue here and are going to have to narrow down their purchasing decision to what they have time to play/what they want to play most. Why release a 4th big-budget multiplayer shooter into this environment? On top of that, why release two of your own shooter products within a week of each other, as well? I don't get it, and a slightly later release date (Jan/Feb) in a less shooter heavy part of the year seems like an obvious choice to me. This is both in terms of people feeling the thirst for a new shooter (beginning to wain off of the Fall's new shooters) and in terms of having more mind-share/possibility for a wider scope discussion (and thus good impressions) in terms of fans of the genre. Thus, more people being sold on the game.

I don't see how releasing Titanfall 2 on Oct 28 benefits either EA or fans of Titanfall, as the game being released when it is can only lead to the game's player base being smaller than it could be due to many potential players being pulled over to one or more of the Fall's other big shooters.


2. In a baffling move, Namco-Bandai announced today that Tales of Berseria will be releasing on January 24th in North America. Gravity Rush 2 also just got bumped to January 20th. This means that in the span of 5 days, all of the following games will be releasing:

Gravity Rush 2 - Jan 20th
Kingdom Hearts 2.8 HD - Jan 24th
Resident Evil 7 - Jan 24th
Yakuza 0 - Jan 24th
Tales of Berseria - Jan 24th

Something to note about all these games - outside of Resident Evil 7 which has a broader appeal - they're all aiming for a pretty similar market of Japanese game fans (for lack of a better term that I can't pull out of my head at the moment). There's simply no universe that I can picture where these games aren't going to cannibalize each other's sales. I know personally speaking I'm interested in all of these games, but Yakuza and Kingdom Hearts is realistically all that I'm going to have time to play, so they're all I'll be getting, then Persona 5 will be out three weeks later (another game aiming for a similar market to the previously listed games, by the way) and all three of those games will keep me busy until those other games get price drops, I'm sure.

Again - why do this?


I'd be very interested in hearing why this happens. Am I wrong? Do games actually almost never cannibalize each other's sales? Do games actually do better when released in batches like this? It's been happening for so many years now that I'm just baffled that it continues to happen, but there must be a reason why publishers keep doing this, right? It just seems like a no-brainier to not release games this way, but I'll also no business-man.
 
Who cares if your competitor is releasing a game around the same time you are unless you don't have faith in your product?
 
Not to mention Persona 5 releases 3 weeks later (not much time for a large JRPG).

We still don't know Nier: Automata's western release date, either.
 
family_guy said:
Who cares if your competitor is releasing a game around the same time you are unless you don't have faith in your product?
Click to expand...

Here's one of your answers OP, faith and good judgment rarely make a good mix.

It reminds me of the "Come at me" of Battleborn devs to Overwatch...
 
My theory is that they all want to release early in the Autumn 'season', as to release late means both potential players being deep into something else and also running into CoD.
 
Whatever sales they lose by cannibalization I absolutely promise you is offset by what they make by getting their game out a month before Black Friday.

If they didn't have market data to back this up then they wouldn't do it.

Some of those examples listed are real head scratchers though.
 
EA commented on this at a stockholder meeting. The data they have is telling them that the Titanfall audience and the BF1 audience are different and that both games can do great this holiday.
 
Like movies, it can appear a sign of strength not to flinch on a release date, unlike any DC super hero movie, vis-a-vis a Marvel release :p
 
ArkhamFantasy said:
EA commented on this at a stockholder meeting. The data they have is telling them that the Titanfall audience and the BF1 audience are different and that both games can do great this holiday.
Click to expand...

Sure, I'm sure there's a decent difference it market there.

...but there's also a lot of overlap as well. Also, there's Gears and CoD to consider. Is the Titanfall audience really that different from the Gears, CoD and Battlefield audiences? All at the same time while they're all released together? I'm not so sure.

Aurongel said:
Whatever sales they lose by cannibalization I absolutely promise you is offset by what they make by getting their game out a month before Black Friday.

If they didn't have market data to back this up then they wouldn't do it.

Some of those examples listed are real head scratchers though.
Click to expand...

This is decent reponse to that, though, being out before Black Friday and for X-mas might offset everything else, anyway.

The January example I gave though? Now that I don't get.
 
Gravity Rush and Yakuza are set to bomb and they know it, they could release them on May 31st and it wouldn't make a difference.
 
Gravity Rush 2 - Jan 20th
Kingdom Hearts 2.8 HD - Jan 24th
Resident Evil 7 - Jan 24th
Yakuza 0 - Jan 24th
Tales of Berseria - Jan 24th
Click to expand...

Let's remember everyone who said that delaying GR2 was a good idea in the other thread.

It's going to get murdered.

-Kingdom Hearts has a broader appeal thanks to Disney characters and the fact that it's an established brand
-RE7 is also more established and mainstream
-Yakuza 0 is going to target basically the same audience while also being "more mature friendly"
-Berseria is the same niche but with brand power

I would say that it's actually worse then the former release date, but we'll see. The only advantage GR2 as against the others is production values, KH might be close though.

Paracelsus said:
Gravity Rush and Yakuza are set to bomb and they know it, they could release them on May 31st and it wouldn't make a difference.
Click to expand...

Why delay GR in the first place then?
 
Paracelsus said:
Gravity Rush and Yakuza are set to bomb and they know it, they could release them on May 31st and it wouldn't make a difference.
Click to expand...

The Gravity Rush one is still a major headscratcher for me. I could understand if they moved it to December 16 or something, but they're moving it into a time period that's no less packed than the original window it had. Why even bother delaying it?

EDIT: I guess Yakuza 0 and Berseria are non-factors in Japan (since they've been out for a while), but internationally it seems like a lost cause either way.
 
Mass_Pincup said:
Let's remember everyone who said that delaying GR2 was a good idea in the other thread.

It's going to get murdered.

-Kingdom Hearts has a broader appeal thanks to Disney characters and the fact that it's an established brand
-RE7 is also more established and mainstream
-Yakuza 0 is going to target basically the same audience while also being "more mature friendly"
-Berseria is the same niche but with brand power

I would say that it's actually worse then the former release date, but we'll see. The only advantage GR2 as against the others is production values, KH might be close though.



Why delay GR in the first place then?
Click to expand...

It was less than a week away from another game from the same studio.
 
It would honestly not surprise me if there are less people playing Titanfall 2 at launch on PC compared to 1.

It's like everything is working against that version of the game.
 
as for Titanfall being "sent out to die" or whatever, i think a lot of people fail to grasp that the target audience at this point is in their late 20s-mid 30s, people with disposable income who buy more than one game on a whim, especially during the holiday season

its looking like its not a clunker either. so that plus a big marketing push during football, i'd honestly be surprised if it's release date ends up being a "mistake"
 
mullet2000 said:
2. In a baffling move, Namco-Bandai announced today that Tales of Berseria will be releasing on January 24th in North America. Gravity Rush 2 also just got bumped to January 20th. This means that in the span of 5 days, all of the following games will be releasing:

Gravity Rush 2 - Jan 20th
Kingdom Hearts 2.8 HD - Jan 24th
Resident Evil 7 - Jan 24th
Yakuza 0 - Jan 24th
Tales of Berseria - Jan 24th

Something to note about all these games - outside of Resident Evil 7 which has a broader appeal - they're all aiming for a pretty similar market of Japanese game fans (for lack of a better term that I can't pull out of my head at the moment). There's simply no universe that I can picture where these games aren't going to cannibalize each other's sales.
Click to expand...
Are Yakuza and Tales really going to cannibalise each other's sales? I mean, that's five games from four different genres, you might be interested in them all but I don't think everyone is interested in everything made in Japan, any more than if a handful of western games from different genres released on the same day. I mainly play Japanese games but only one of that lot is my kinda thing.
 
Rektash said:
Reality doesn't care about your faith.
Click to expand...

Reality is you can't make your release date decisions based on what the other guy is doing. Why? Because just about every high profile game this gen has been delayed. For example, let's say I'm Square and didn't want Tomb Raider to go up against Uncharted 4 last winter. Fine, work out a deal with MS to make it time exclusive. Make some extra cash and have a nice window to yourself the next year. Look what happened though, Uncharted 4 didn't even come out until the following May and Tomb Raider PS4 version is releasing into an even more crowded window than it would have if it came out last year.
 
Kingdom Hearts and Berseria are kinda going to cannibalize each other; and they're also going to lose steam pretty quick when Persona 5 comes out shortly after.
 
Aren't a lot of these games literally investments? This is the best time of the year to get a return on your investment. These publishers have to answer to someone. Also, most gamers probably receive multiple games as gifts around the holiday. After the sale, its the gamer's problem to find time to play them
 
For part 2, it would be one thing if they were all the same genre or something like that. But how many people outside of absolute enthusiasts are going to want them all, or even more than a couple of them, on day one?

Of that list the only game that's a day 1 for me is Gravity Rush 2. Everything else is either a backlog game or a total pass.
 
shit man, you gotta release you game sometime.

GR2 was delayed to give breathing space to TLG. Sony can care less about Tales or Yakuza and probably don't think RE is the same audience.

Also a lot of Pubs feel like if people are in the store perhaps they may be swayed by a similar release. Imagine this scenario in which Otaku Jimmy (or Jimminette?) is in a store looking for a new game to buy...even if they went knowing what they wanted perhaps upon seeing tales or Yakuza they may be swayed? This probably isn't likely but I have gone to a store with an idea of what I might buy and ended up buying something else because I didn't know it was out...and I like to think I am up on the latest releases too.

ALSO also, I don't know how much this really overlaps. RE is a first person horror game. Yakuza is a mature beat em up semi sandbox "RPG". KH is a release of a 3ds game, a movie and a glorified demo. GR2 is an sandbox adventure superhero game. Tales is a action RPG. Aesthetics are important but idk if the audience is the same. I mean I am buying most of these but I have issues and money to waste....thats not the norm.

ALSO ALSO also...pubs don't give a fuck. Namco doesn't care about GR2 or Yakuza (might care about KH...but eh). SE damn sure gives no fucks. Capcom probably cares but they probably don't see any of those games as true competitors either. Sony doesn't care about GR2s success. I mean they do but at the end of the day it is a niche game that helps fill their list of "see we do care about yall weebs too". Its like Nintendo occasionally does with obvious bombas..sometimes you can hold that but release it anyway. Its delay was more about TLG (which they care about immensely). Sega legit doesnt give a fuck...and probably is just waiting for it to bomb so they can stop localizing it...lol...sorry. Sega gonna Sega
 
Also I'd like to add this in that Tales of Berseria and Resident Evil 7 - unlike Yakuza, Kingdom Hearts, and Gravity Rush 2 - Are multiplats rather than PS4 exclusives, giving them a tad bit more elbow room in that January timeslot than the others.

If any of the others on that list cannibalize Berseria on PS4, Namco's wise choice to diversify platforms of their games will be able to make up for it just fine.
 
I think the fact that games are retail product (and thus are less reliant on first-week sales) makes a lot of publishers willing to release them when ample competition is in the water. Most people buying these games don't care about playing them immediately at release. So from a sales perspective, it's better to be on the shelf for the Holiday sales rush - instead of having a week to yourself elsewhere in the year.

Remember, people insisted RoTR was being sent out to die by launching the same day as Fallout 4. That game still pushed a million copies. Common sense around release dates can be wrong.
 
It's a bit of release confidence (aiming for the "best dates" of the year), believing that your title can stand against the competition and lastly, the reality of software development and profits that have to be made within a fiscal year.

Sadly though it doesn't necessarily mean the decisions will be right. As you noted yourself, a lot of these release dates are going to end up killing other games.
 
Yakuza probably doesn't intersect with those audiences beyond being Japanese games. Genres that differ don't usually eat the sales of others.
 
Gravity Rush 2 isn't going to be a huge seller no matter what time frame they release it in. We are talking about a sequel to a vita game here. Sony is doing the bare minimum to hype the title. I say all that but it's also the only game in that list that I actually want to buy.
 
Mass_Pincup said:
Let's remember everyone who said that delaying GR2 was a good idea in the other thread.

It's going to get murdered.
Click to expand...

It's really odd seeing the Pavlovian "it's for the better!" and "game needed room to breathe!" responses that follow every single delay at this point, even when the new date is either not any better or decidedly worse.
 
There are a few good reasons why it makes sense for EA to release TF2 before MWR and shortly after BF1.
1) TF2 and BF1 are not very similar
2) TF2 might be well positioned to poach a few sales from COD, potentially allowing BF1 to close the gap on COD; and
3) It gives EA a hell of a quarter between FIFA, Madden, BF1 and TF2. They will very likely end up being the top publisher this fall.
 
1. EA doesnt care if BF1 and TF2 cannibalize each others sales, they just dont want you buying CoD. Does that make any sense? They know the games will cut into each others sales but theyre OK with that as long as it also cuts into CoD sales.


2. Theres hundreds of games released each year and only 52 weeks in a year. Game releases always have and always will conflict with each other.

3. Delays are far too common in the gaming industry. Even if you set a date far away from someone else, something will end up getting delayed next to it anyway. What then, delay the game because someone else delayed theirs? Thats not always feasible.
 
The January games are at least different publishers. EA releasing two multiplayer shooters within a week of each other still takes the cake.
 
Yeah, I really don't get it. We haven't had a shooter released for months and then Titanfall, COD and Battlefield all release within 2 weeks of each other. Why?
 
Outside of Resident Evil 7, all of the games you listed are going to tank anyways. Makes no difference when you release them.
 
They all want a slice of that delicious holiday release window cake. I agree that it is dumb, but I think data supports that decisions. Now, just blindly releasing it without factoring in other big releases, is just utterly dumb. It's certainly ok if you have a different target audience with minimal overlap, say Persona 5 vs CoD or something, but releasing close to other shooters and NOT first? That's kinda dumb.
 
TheSpoiler said:
Yakuza probably doesn't intersect with those audiences beyond being Japanese games. Genres that differ don't usually eat the sales of others.
Click to expand...
That doesn't change the fact that all of them (besides RE7) are niche games aiming at an audience that mostly enjoys Japanese games.

I know that I'm interested in at least two more titles from that list beside Yakuza 0, yet I have to choose Yakuza over them. And I'd wager that a fair number of people are in pretty similar situations.

Tizoc said:
To be fair, SEGA wouldn't have known of what games would also release in January :P
Click to expand...
And I think it was even Yakuza that took that date first. How the hell did it became so crowded :(
 
Son Of Sparda said:
That doesn't change the fact that all of them (besides RE7) are niche games aiming at an audience that mostly enjoys Japanese games.

I know that I'm interested in at least two more titles from that list beside Yakuza 0, yet I have to choose Yakuza over them. And I'd wager that a fair number of people are in pretty similar situations.


And I think it was even Yakuza that took that date first. How the hell did it became so crowded :(
Click to expand...

Well, it depends on the hardcore, the Yakuza fans, and newcomers. I don't think enough hardcore gamers are going to significantly impact Yakuza, Yakuza fans are gonna buy it regardless, and people's taste for Japanese games can just include an action brawler and not the other games. I plan on getting RE7 and Yakuza but I plan on saving for both. I wonder if there's some studies on this.
 
mullet2000 said:
Gravity Rush 2 - Jan 20th
Kingdom Hearts 2.8 HD - Jan 24th
Resident Evil 7 - Jan 24th
Yakuza 0 - Jan 24th
Tales of Berseria - Jan 24th

Something to note about all these games - outside of Resident Evil 7 which has a broader appeal - they're all aiming for a pretty similar market of Japanese game fans (for lack of a better term that I can't pull out of my head at the moment).
Click to expand...

Seems kind of reaching to say that they're all going for the same group.

Anime Superheroine game
Remake/Collection of Disney/SE Action/RPGs
Horror Game
GTA in Japan
Action/RPG

I can see some overlap between KH & Tales but you're talking about long-running RPG series with dedicated fanbases - regardless of when you release, the diehard fans are going to buy day 1 and everybody else is going to ignore it or buy it on sale a few months later anyway. For that matter, that applies somewhat to all of these games - they're all sequels and they're all single-player games so even if you are a fan of all of them, it's not like you're going to miss out if you buy some of them later.

Personally, I guess you could call me a Japanese game fan and Gravity Rush 2 is a must-have, Tales is a get on sale, and everything else on that list is a skip.

The fact of the matter is that so many games come out these days that you have to release at the same time other games come out. At best, you can try to avoid the heavy hitters in your genre, but even then there's no guarantee since release dates get changed all the time.
 
Loads of boring derivative games come out at the same time as each other all the time. Don't assume everyone's radar is the same as yours
 
mullet2000 said:
Again - why do this?


I'd be very interested in hearing why this happens. Am I wrong? Do games actually almost never cannibalize each other's sales? Do games actually do better when released in batches like this? It's been happening for so many years now that I'm just baffled that it continues to happen, but there must be a reason why publishers keep doing this, right? It just seems like a no-brainier to not release games this way, but I'll also no business-man.
Click to expand...

Most retail sales happen in the last quarter of the year.

That is when Americans are getting holiday bonuses and buying presents for each other due to multiple holidays.

Basically, more money is spent overall and individual people are more likely to spend.

It is still a gamble going up against other heavy hitters, but if you succeed, it's like winning the lotto.
 
Tizoc said:
To be fair, SEGA wouldn't have known of what games would also release in January :P
Click to expand...

This!
Most companies operate without knowledge of when other studios are releasing. Ship dates are often worked out LONG before it's time to actually ship, that way they can work out a milestone schedule and work towards a ship date.
 
There are only so many weeks, and you have limited visibility to other people's release dates.

Ultimately, it's not that big of a deal, especially for the most of the games listed here - fans of those series are going to buy those games.
 
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