United States Election: Nov. 8, 2016 |OT| Hate Trumps Love
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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You give Hillary all those states and yet somehow Trump wins all of Maines votes? Cmon
323 - 215 seems most likely but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins either FL or NC.
Citizen's United was a case against her that she lost. So the chance that she'll appoint justices that will overturn it is high. On the other hand, if the Senate stays red the chance that republicans might just block every one of her appointments is high.
Lobbying will likely still be a thing, but it's incredibly hard to restrain lobbying. Best way to limit the effect of lobbying is to get rid of Cspan and not have a person's name signed on bills, imo. Which presents other problems.
This is more accurate.
You want actual progress? Get the Dems in control of Congress. Vote for your senators and representatives.
Until then, you'll have a Congress refusing to do their job and being obstructionist for the hell of it just because their opponent won the presidency.
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
I'm nervous for you, America, best of luck.
As far as I'm concerned:
Incredible.
Look like a hand that has never held a salt shaker
The most likely electoral map
The very likely electoral map scenario with really high hispanic turnout(+7 PV win)
My electoral map prediction from early september
I think she barely wins Iowa and Ohio in all of my scenarios because the urban areas in those states should vote like crazy for her in both states. In the later two scenarios she also barely wins AZ and GA.
The very likely electoral map scenario with really high hispanic turnout(+7 PV win)
My electoral map prediction from early september
I think she barely wins Iowa and Ohio in all of my scenarios because the urban areas in those states should vote like crazy for her in both states. In the later two scenarios she also barely wins AZ and GA.
Really, that's my biggest fear. Not that Trump will win, but that he'll lose by just enough that he'll claim the system is still rigged and rile up his supporters.
This level of bigotry, incompetence, sexism, misogyny, hatred, xenophobia, Islamophobia, prejudice, ignorance, dishonesty, and fear-mongering shouldn't just lose. It SHOULD be utterly EXTERMINATED. Like, nuke it from orbit levels of eradication.
I've discussed this at length before but painfully slow progress isn't much better than status quo. Better, sure, but not by much. Especially since the chance for those rights is slim in the first place regardless of it being slow or not.
And to the other person above: I vote in every election I can.
VendettaRed07
Member
This is like, top three in the races I care about on Tuesday.
http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/11/marijuana_legalization_in_mass.html
I'm so hyped.
Three (poor, restless) sleeps to go.
2015, I'm guessing.
My map:
I'd like to be wrong about OH and IA, though. Especially IA.
Heh, that's the exact map I just made. I see OH and IA being really close but ultimately red, though they'll settle in long after they've become irrelevant to the total. I also see UT and AK being closer than you might normally expect (though McMuffin ultimately falls just short), and southern states like TX showing more purpling than predicted but not quite enough to flip.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
A lot of people are predicting NC to be blue and OH to be red, while mine is reversed.
What's your reasoning? Just curious. I base this on not just polling aggregates (which are sorta at a toss-up status it seems), but also the fact that OH has gone to Obama both times, and NC only once (and was otherwise red for a long-ass while, OH was blue for Bill Clinton).
Am I too optimistic in thinking OH will stay blue? :\ Well, if I'm wrong, Clinton still wins even without NC at least, but oof that's getting too close.
Edit: fucking Florida man. I'm stressing out because of OH, FL and PA. I think Clinton can win all three, but if Trump gets some sort of surge in those, it's gonna be so, so bad. ._.
What's your reasoning? Just curious. I base this on not just polling aggregates (which are sorta at a toss-up status it seems), but also the fact that OH has gone to Obama both times, and NC only once (and was otherwise red for a long-ass while, OH was blue for Bill Clinton).
Am I too optimistic in thinking OH will stay blue? :\ Well, if I'm wrong, Clinton still wins even without NC at least, but oof that's getting too close.
Edit: fucking Florida man. I'm stressing out because of OH, FL and PA. I think Clinton can win all three, but if Trump gets some sort of surge in those, it's gonna be so, so bad. ._.
The polls have been stronger for the Democrats in NC, the GOP is being pulled down by the highly unpopular governor, and the early vote totals have been really promising.
Count Dookkake
Member
Voted early yesterday in Tulsa.
Crowd mostly looked like people who want America to be great again.
Crowd mostly looked like people who want America to be great again.
VendettaRed07
Member
Polling and I thinkTrump's anti-trade stuff sits better with Ohio than with NC because of the difference in economy and the jobs market in both.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Gotcha. I thought I paid decent attention but I must have missed that somehow. Good news!
Also, something to lighten the mood for now:
Samantha Bee's full Trump thesaurus
Gordon Shumway
Banned
Like I said, I think OH will barely go red. NC's early voting is promising, while I haven't seen anything from OH and I think the demographics will nudge it. But if the map's gonna be wrong, I think that's the one that ends up wrong.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
oh mannnnnnnn so excited to see the orange turd flush
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
That's my exact map!Someone make the prediction map thread!
My prediction:
I think this thread is fine for map predictions btw. It fits the discussion.
VendettaRed07
Member
I feel like this is the most optimistic map I can put together at this point. I don't see her winning anything else.
Maintenance
Member
I'm ready.
Mass Effect
Member
Because early voting and favorable demographics (black people).
I'm going with no for both of your questions. Even if Hillary had the political will to go after campaign finance reform (which I highly doubt), she will be obstructed at every turn - including getting someone on the court who could actually make overturning that ruling a possibility. I suspect that she'll have a middling, unimpressive, risk adverse presidency - marked by unprecedented republican obstructionism. At this point, the TYT plan for getting money out of politics is probably more likely to happen lol.
WooHooAlex
Member
Minnesota here, voted for Hillary on Thursday, and now Trump is coming here tomorrow in a last ditch effort to turn MN red. Not happening, Donald.
I've just been reading that whoever wins the presidential race won't necessarily control the House. WTF? I understand the point of the electoral college system is to allow voters to choose the President (albeit indirectly) but it seems like whoever holds that office will be a lame duck if they can't at least control the House.
Speaking as an outsider, this setup seems entirely bonkers. Is there any advantage vs. the Westminster system where the party that holds a House majority installs their guy as the head of government?
Speaking as an outsider, this setup seems entirely bonkers. Is there any advantage vs. the Westminster system where the party that holds a House majority installs their guy as the head of government?
Nothing1016
Member
That's it, thanks.
metalslimer
Member
People giving her Ohio and losing NC? That would be a shock
Subtract one EV from Trump and this is how it will end.After further consideration..
Bob Coffee
Member
The electoral college is to prevent an actual dangerious canidate from rising to power. You vote for your canidates electorial college people for your state, they vote almost always on party lines, the one with 270 electoral votes becomes the president.
Otherwise the us goverment is based on a series of checks and balances, that in theory should force compromise but it doesnt work too good when one party is a bunch of obstructionist fuckwads.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I feel like this is the most optimistic map I can put together at this point. I don't see her winning anything else.
She can't win Georgia either.
Realistically it could be a little close.
Killer Queen
Banned
There's a dude in Toronto at the Eaton centre singing and dancing about Hindu's for Trump.
Definitely going to be an interesting election.
Definitely going to be an interesting election.
superdeluxe
Member
Great OP. Ready for the election to be over
I don't really see how? Besides which, I rather thought the point of a proportional system is to prevent populous areas from dominating every election.
Yes, but it's all a bit pointless since the President seems to be the head of the executive but not the head of the legislative. For comparison, in the Westminster system the Prime Minister is the head of government, which means she leads the House but she also forms a cabinet of ministers with executive powers. As far as checks and balances, there's the Senate which has to pass into law bills introduced by the government in the House. Also, in Australia at least, the Senate has the power to block supply.
Exactly. The whole system strikes me as a bit dumb. Why do it this way, besides tradition and forefathers etc? Is there any advantage?
Was he Indian by any chance? Trump has fans in India because they perceive he will not try to enforce restrictions on their fossil fuel usage or criticize their human rights issues.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
I want this shit to be over but I know it won't be after November 8th because then we're going to have four years of GOP and the other idiots doing the same shit they've been doing since the 90s.
smokeymicpot
Beat EviLore at pool.
I really hope he doesn't win and I hate their is a shot for him to win. Bunch of people I know are voting for him but I am in Staten Island. Its mostly red.
You're asking why we don't just let one party take over the whole government? Errr...
Please see my subsequent edit re checks and balances.
EDIT:
Also, AFAIK, there is nothing in the US system to prevent one party being in control of both houses and the executive? The complete separation between executive and legislative seems counter-productive to me insofar as the President doesn't seem to have real power to shape laws. I don't get it. What's the benefit vs the Westminster system?
Ok I don't really understand what you're asking, and I'm not familiar with the government you're talking about.
You asked why the House and President can be from different parties, but then you state that in your govt there's a Senate that provides checks and balances?
In the US, the House = the Senate. They're in the same branch called Congress. They provide checks and balances to the President.
The President's job isn't to make laws. Yes, he/she can and should give direction to how the nation should move, but laws are created by Congress (Senate and the House of Representatives). But even if they're in separate parties, the President can negotiate. If the Senate is split evenly like it's looking to be, it's possible to sway people on the other side to support your law. Or you can trade for something else, etc.
Polioliolio
Member
The most likely electoral map
The very likely electoral map scenario with really high hispanic turnout(+7 PV win)
My electoral map prediction from early september
I think she barely wins Iowa and Ohio in all of my scenarios because the urban areas in those states should vote like crazy for her in both states. In the later two scenarios she also barely wins AZ and GA.
Trump will win Ohio. Trump supporters are everywhere, with signs in many yards.
Occasionally you see Hillary signs, but I suspect supporters are afraid of putting signs up, expecting vandalism from Trump supporters (my sister's signs were vandalized, and I have friend's who are afraid of putting signs up)
Last I heard, he was up in Ohio by 3-5 points..
I don't have faith here. I know more Trump supporters personally, than Hillary supporters too.. There's an air of conservative control.
Good Job Bob
Member
There is no benefit. Parliamentary democracy is absolutely better than what we have.
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