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[Geist-]

I'm not looking forward to voting on Tuesday. If it's congested now, I can't imagine how bad it will be in my state where there's no early voting.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Dear GAF,

Any comprehensive guides for election night, as in what will be key battleground states and at what time to expect their results to come in (preferably in CEST for us Euro's)?

Here are the battleground states with abbreviations (to match them up with the map in the OP) and closing times. These categories are somewhat arbitrary and you could shift several into other categories or even take a couple off the board or maybe put one or two others on depending on if you want to be aggressive or conservative. The times I have listed are when the final polls close in each state. It can take a long time to count results after that, so be patient.

The major battlegrounds:

Ohio (OH) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC.

North Carolina (NC) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC

Florida (FL) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Most polls will close an hour before but there will be no calls until after the final poll closings.

New Hampshire (NH) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Again some polls will close earlier. There are even one or two small towns (I mean really small, like 50 or so people combined) who have a tradition of voting at midnight and reporting their results immediately, so the first incredibly early (and incredibly meaningless) returns will come in a little after 5:00 AM UTC.

Nevada (NV) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC. Polls indicate a very close race, but the demographics and partisan composition of the early vote look good for Clinton.

States where a Trump victory likely indicates bad news for Clinton:

Virginia (VA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC. Beware that this takes a long time to call usually because the Democratic strongholds in Northern Virginia take a long time to count. Early returns will likely show Trump with a nominal lead with Clinton surging ahead later.

Pennsylvania (PA) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC

Maine (ME) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Maine shouldn't be that competitive, but they do have a provision for splitting their electoral votes by congressional district. Long story short, Trump is unlikely to win but could win one of its four electoral votes.

Michigan (MI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC. Actually almost all the polls will have closed an hour earlier so we may have an idea how it's going before that. Only a few rural areas wait until 9:00.

Wisconsin (WI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Colorado (CO) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

States where a Clinton victory likely indicates bad news for Trump:

Georgia (GA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC

Arizona (AZ) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Nebraska (NE) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC - Like Maine, this isn't really contested but has provisions for splitting its electoral votes by congressional district, and Clinton has a shot at taking one of its five votes.

Iowa (IA) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC

Utah (UT) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC - This is an unusual case. Utah is one of the most Republican states in the country but Trump is unappealing to the largely Mormon population. Evan McMullin, a Republican running as an independent, has been polling strongly and could take the state or take enough Republican votes to give Clinton the victory.

Any other results would be pretty big surprises. If, say, Clinton wins Missouri (MO) or Texas (TX) or Trump wins Minnesota (MN) or Oregon (OR), that's probably the election right there barring some wacky results elsewhere.

Note that if Trump wins every state he's supposed to (including the ones like GA or AZ that I listed) and wins every major battleground, that gets him to a 269-269 tie (which would probably be resolved in his favor by the House of Representatives but that's a whole story of its own). Add in the one vote from Maine or any state from the "Clinton should win list" like VA or PA then he wins. But the long story short is that Clinton has many paths to victory and Trump has few. If she wins even one of the major battlegrounds then Trump needs to pull off an upset elsewhere.

 

[Harmen]

Good luck US gaf, this election seems to be one for the history books and I pray to god we can all look back on it in the sense that things went well in the end.

 

[Wallach]

I was going to say, I thought the indications from early voting were solidly in favor of Clinton. Why the sudden worry that it's "close"?

overly consuming ignorant media

this election isn't close

 

[Indicate]

I'm kinda scared. A Trump presidency would have a negative impact on the world.

 

[half a moon]

Bernie lost and my state will 100% be red so... I'm leaning toward fuck it.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Bernie lost and my state will 100% be red so... I'm leaning toward fuck it.

Downballot races are very important (in fact, it could be argued that the more local the race gets the more direct the impact on your life). You should still vote even if you think your presidential vote won't matter.

 

[BearPawB]

I don't get the fear in this thread.
Hillary could lose NC, fl, Ohio, Iowa, and others and still get 270.

Early voting looks good in NC and Nevada.

 

[gdt]

Bernie lost and my state will 100% be red so... I'm leaning toward fuck it.

Vote vote vote. Go down the ballot.

 

[molnizzle]

Even though Texas will be a lock for Trump I still early-voted straight Dem down the ballot. There was no line or anything so I figured I might as well. For all the local positions there were only Republicans running so I just abstained from those.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Here are the battleground states with abbreviations (to match them up with the map in the OP) and closing times. These categories are somewhat arbitrary and you could shift several into other categories or even take a couple off the board or maybe put one or two others on depending on if you want to be aggressive or conservative. The times I have listed are when the final polls close in each state. It can take a long time to count results after that, so be patient.

The major battlegrounds:

Ohio (OH) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC.

North Carolina (NC) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC

Florida (FL) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Most polls will close an hour before but there will be no calls until after the final poll closings.

New Hampshire (NH) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Again some polls will close earlier. There are even one or two small towns (I mean really small, like 50 or so people combined) who have a tradition of voting at midnight and reporting their results immediately, so the first incredibly early (and incredibly meaningless) returns will come in a little after 5:00 AM UTC.

Nevada (NV) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC. Polls indicate a very close race, but the demographics and partisan composition of the early vote look good for Clinton.

States where a Trump victory likely indicates bad news for Clinton:

Virginia (VA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC. Beware that this takes a long time to call usually because the Democratic strongholds in Northern Virginia take a long time to count. Early returns will likely show Trump with a nominal lead with Clinton surging ahead later.

Pennsylvania (PA) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC

Maine (ME) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Maine shouldn't be that competitive, but they do have a provision for splitting their electoral votes by congressional district. Long story short, Trump is unlikely to win but could win one of its four electoral votes.

Michigan (MI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC. Actually almost all the polls will have closed an hour earlier so we may have an idea how it's going before that. Only a few rural areas wait until 9:00.

Wisconsin (WI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Colorado (CO) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

States where a Clinton victory likely indicates bad news for Trump:

Georgia (GA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC

Arizona (AZ) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Nebraska (NE) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC - Like Maine, this isn't really contested but has provisions for splitting its electoral votes by congressional district, and Clinton has a shot at taking one of its five votes.

Iowa (IA) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC

Utah (UT) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC - This is an unusual case. Utah is one of the most Republican states in the country but Trump is unappealing to the largely Mormon population. Evan McMullin, a Republican running as an independent, has been polling strongly and could take the state or take enough Republican votes to give Clinton the victory.

Any other results would be pretty big surprises. If, say, Clinton wins Missouri (MO) or Texas (TX) or Trump wins Minnesota (MN) or Oregon (OR), that's probably the election right there barring some wacky results elsewhere.

Note that if Trump wins every state he's supposed to (including the ones like GA or AZ that I listed) and wins every major battleground, that gets him to a 269-269 tie (which would probably be resolved in his favor by the House of Representatives but that's a whole story of its own). Add in the one vote from Maine or any state from the "Clinton should win list" like VA or PA then he wins. But the long story short is that Clinton has many paths to victory and Trump has few. If she wins even one of the major battlegrounds then Trump needs to pull off an upset elsewhere.

This is a really useful post, thanks. Probably worth reposting at the top of the page once election day rolls around, because it's got some good info in it.

 

[whyamihere]

I just can't believe after almost 2 years, it's almost over.

 

[giga]

Bron and JR delivering Ohio right now.

 

[Evening Musuko]

Bernie lost and my state will 100% be red so... I'm leaning toward fuck it.

Bernie is still going to be in the Senate and he's going to need all the help he can get.

Why don't you want to help Bernie?

 

[mo60]

Why are anyone worried? I think/predict Hilton winning in a huge landslide! Reagan-style! Even with the most moderate republican Hillary would have won!

I think she will win by a considerable margin on Tuesday.By consderable I mean similar to the margin Obama won against Mccain in 08 in terms of the popular vote. It's going to be a repeat of the federa election in Canada last year.

 

[N.Domixis]

I'm just scared she is going to lose Texas. I would expect a lot of Hispanics there to vote?

 

[avaya]

I'm just scared she is going to lose Texas. I would expect a lot of Hispanics there to vote?

This is not Kamala running for her 2nd term in 2028 yet.

 

[mo60]

I'm just scared she is going to lose Texas. I would expect a lot of Hispanics there to vote?

She is not doomed if she loses texas. She should cut into the margins he would win the south by significantly in general even if she loses texas.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I'm just scared she is going to lose Texas. I would expect a lot of Hispanics there to vote?

The last time a Democrat won in Texas was 1976. If she wins it means the election is a landslide.

 

[pigeon]

Here are the battleground states with abbreviations (to match them up with the map in the OP) and closing times. These categories are somewhat arbitrary and you could shift several into other categories or even take a couple off the board or maybe put one or two others on depending on if you want to be aggressive or conservative. The times I have listed are when the final polls close in each state. It can take a long time to count results after that, so be patient.

The major battlegrounds:

Ohio (OH) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC.

North Carolina (NC) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC

Florida (FL) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Most polls will close an hour before but there will be no calls until after the final poll closings.

New Hampshire (NH) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Again some polls will close earlier. There are even one or two small towns (I mean really small, like 50 or so people combined) who have a tradition of voting at midnight and reporting their results immediately, so the first incredibly early (and incredibly meaningless) returns will come in a little after 5:00 AM UTC.

Nevada (NV) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC. Polls indicate a very close race, but the demographics and partisan composition of the early vote look good for Clinton.

States where a Trump victory likely indicates bad news for Clinton:

Virginia (VA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC. Beware that this takes a long time to call usually because the Democratic strongholds in Northern Virginia take a long time to count. Early returns will likely show Trump with a nominal lead with Clinton surging ahead later.

Pennsylvania (PA) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC

Maine (ME) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Maine shouldn't be that competitive, but they do have a provision for splitting their electoral votes by congressional district. Long story short, Trump is unlikely to win but could win one of its four electoral votes.

Michigan (MI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC. Actually almost all the polls will have closed an hour earlier so we may have an idea how it's going before that. Only a few rural areas wait until 9:00.

Wisconsin (WI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Colorado (CO) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

States where a Clinton victory likely indicates bad news for Trump:

Georgia (GA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC

Arizona (AZ) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Nebraska (NE) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC - Like Maine, this isn't really contested but has provisions for splitting its electoral votes by congressional district, and Clinton has a shot at taking one of its five votes.

Iowa (IA) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC

Utah (UT) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC - This is an unusual case. Utah is one of the most Republican states in the country but Trump is unappealing to the largely Mormon population. Evan McMullin, a Republican running as an independent, has been polling strongly and could take the state or take enough Republican votes to give Clinton the victory.

Any other results would be pretty big surprises. If, say, Clinton wins Missouri (MO) or Texas (TX) or Trump wins Minnesota (MN) or Oregon (OR), that's probably the election right there barring some wacky results elsewhere.

Note that if Trump wins every state he's supposed to (including the ones like GA or AZ that I listed) and wins every major battleground, that gets him to a 269-269 tie (which would probably be resolved in his favor by the House of Representatives but that's a whole story of its own). Add in the one vote from Maine or any state from the "Clinton should win list" like VA or PA then he wins. But the long story short is that Clinton has many paths to victory and Trump has few. If she wins even one of the major battlegrounds then Trump needs to pull off an upset elsewhere.

Excellent post!

Quick breakdown of important states by time of poll closing:

7:00 PM
* Virginia -- Basically a blue state now. Virginia doesn't always count quickly and the polls stay open while people are in line, so it's quite possible it won't get called early, but if it stays too close to call (instead of too early) for a long time, it might not be a great sign for Hillary.
* Georgia -- A normally red state, but Trump's been pretty weak here. Trump needs to win this to really have any chance. If it gets called fast for Trump, good sign for him.
7:30 PM
* North Carolina -- A battleground state. Trump must win all of these. Hillary basically just needs one, unless she starts losing otherwise blue states.
* Ohio -- Battleground. Leaning towards Trump, but Hillary might have a shot to win this for the land.
8:00 PM
* Florida -- The battleground of battlegrounds. Almost always gets called late.
* New Hampshire -- Battleground, but kind of a little baby one.
* Maine -- Maine's second district is a battleground with 1 electoral vote. Hopefully won't matter, because the situations where it matters aren't great.
9:00 PM
* Arizona -- A normally red state that might be in danger this year thanks to Latino turnout. Trump doesn't just want to win this, he wants to win it easily.
* Colorado -- Battleground.
* Michigan -- A normally blue state that might be tighter. Bad if Hillary loses this, although she might still make it up by winning battlegrounds.
* Texas-- One of the redder states in the union -- when Latinos don't turn out to vote. If this isn't called for Trump immediately it's going to be a real bad night for him.
* Nebraska -- Nebraska's second district may be a one vote battleground. Again, hopefully just for bragging rights.
10:00 PM
* Iowa -- Battleground.
* Nevada -- Battleground. Probably already gone for Hillary thanks to early vote. Yes, if Hillary wins every solid blue state plus Virginia, Michigan (both pretty blue) and Nevada, the election is over.
* Utah -- BY GOD! IS THAT EVAN MCMULLIN'S MUSIC?
1:00 AM
* Alaska -- Probably doesn't matter, but if Hillary has a big win, you might want to stay up to see whether she can pick up the Last Frontier.

 

[Evening Musuko]

I'm just scared she is going to lose Texas. I would expect a lot of Hispanics there to vote?

My family and I will do our part, but it probably won't be enough to flip the state.

But don't worry, she doesn't need Texas to win. It would be a great wake up call to the GOP if she did win it and any other GOP state not named North Carolina though.

 

[Dr. Malik]

I'm just scared she is going to lose Texas. I would expect a lot of Hispanics there to vote?

She was never going to win it lol

 

[Wallach]

I'm just scared she is going to lose Texas. I would expect a lot of Hispanics there to vote?

she was never going to win texas

that would be hilarious, but no, there are still too many idiots in texas just yet

 

[Lys Skygge]

I'm not going to breath easy until the election is called. I'm really nervous for Hillary D:

 

[Fj0823]

As a nervous outsider...What are Trump's chances?

Is Trump 2016 happening?

 

[Snarfington]

Heard multiple of my friends in the US not going to vote because "they're both terrible". They're not even going to vote down the ticket, can't be convinced. Just silly. I hope there aren't too many people doing this, it's too important not to do your part either way.

 

[avaya]

Heard multiple of my friends in the US not going to vote because "they're both terrible". They're not even going to vote down the ticket, can't be convinced. Just silly. I hope there aren't too many people doing this, it's too important not to do your part either way.

What state?

 

[Snarfington]

What state?

CA and Texas. Understandably to some degree - one in CA is traditionally a repub (who would vote for Johnson) and in Texas is a dem, so they probably feel their vote isn't going to swing anything. Just seems weird to me as a Brit where, compared to our system, the two-party setup is something I would NEVER EVER opt out of voting for.

 

[mo60]

As a nervous outsider...What are Trump's chances?

Is Trump 2016 happening?

He only has like a 20% chance of winning even though that has probably decreased signficantly now since it is very unlikely he's going to win FL, NV and most likely NC now.

 

[Kai Dracon]

CA and Texas. Understandably to some degree - one in CA is traditionally a repub (who would vote for Johnson) and in Texas is a dem, so they probably feel their vote isn't going to swing anything. Just seems weird to me as a Brit where, compared to our system, the two-party setup is something I would NEVER EVER opt out of voting for.

It's difficult to get a lot of people in the US to comprehend the long game. Texas is a good example. Democrats have been fighting there for years to make the state purple and have made some progress. It wouldn't have happened without people who go and vote, even if the democrats don't win that specific election.

 

[Piggus]

Heard multiple of my friends in the US not going to vote because "they're both terrible". They're not even going to vote down the ticket, can't be convinced. Just silly. I hope there aren't too many people doing this, it's too important not to do your part either way.

They're dumb.

 

[The Lamonster]

Heard multiple of my friends in the US not going to vote because "they're both terrible". They're not even going to vote down the ticket, can't be convinced. Just silly. I hope there aren't too many people doing this, it's too important not to do your part either way.

They weren't gonna vote anyway. Too edgy. Free thinkers.

 

[tuxfool]

Heard multiple of my friends in the US not going to vote because "they're both terrible". They're not even going to vote down the ticket, can't be convinced. Just silly. I hope there aren't too many people doing this, it's too important not to do your part either way.

Like those on GAF that express those sentiments, your friends are idiots.

 

[pswii60]

This is what worries me too. Im woried pools are inaccurate and are not taking into account deplorables who ill come out in force to vote.

Both last year's UK General Election and this year's EU referendum were predicted incorrectly by pollsters. But in the election, people didn't want to admit to be Tory supporters, and in the referendum, people didn't want to admit to being Brexiteers due to the eye-rolling of the remainers (like me). The silent majority. It was similar in the Scottish independence referendum - those in support of the union were too scared to speak up in fear of nationalists giving them a hard time.

The question in the US is, are the silent voters the ones voting for Clinton or Trump?

Heard multiple of my friends in the US not going to vote because "they're both terrible". They're not even going to vote down the ticket, can't be convinced. Just silly. I hope there aren't too many people doing this, it's too important not to do your part either way.

They could at least vote for the lovely chap who doesn't know what an Aleppo is.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Why is the election still on a Tuesday? (I know the historic background). So that poor people don't have time to vote because they need to work? In Europe Sunday is voting day.

Ideally we need to move away from a voting day at all. We need nice long voting periods with plenty of access for everyone.

 

[ShironRedshift]

Ideally we need to move away from a voting day at all. We need nice long voting periods with plenty of access for everyone.

Indeed. It would be wonderful if we could have mail-in voting everywhere.

 

[phatmike128]

Personally I am going to vote but the two major presidential candidates in this cycle both leave much to be desired. Neither are exceptional and both have a lot of baggage. At this point I honestly don't care who wins. I will be writing in a candidate because voting for the lessor of the two evils still means you're voting for someone evil. I think for this specific cycle that is why there has been so much apathy, they are both dirty candidates that the majority of people don't like.

So the first reply to my comment hits the nail on the head with irony. It's not a popularity contest, the candidates have wildly different platforms for your country and if you don't care enough to choose one that will help yourself then you're just doing yourself and your friends and family a disservice.

 

[OrlanisWorks]

Indeed. It would be wonderful if we could have mail-in voting everywhere.

It absolutely should be an option everywhere. Forcing booths seems like a way to inconvenience people.

This is my first election I'll be voting in, so now I have a %50 vote rate, lol. I'm kinda excited, but the cynicism is right around the corner.

 

[whyamihere]

Both last year's UK General Election and this year's EU referendum were predicted incorrectly by pollsters. But in the election, people didn't want to admit to be Tory supporters, and in the referendum, people didn't want to admit to being Brexiteers due to the eye-rolling of the remainers (like me). The silent majority. It was similar in the Scottish independence referendum - those in support of the union were too scared to speak up in fear of nationalists giving them a hard time.

The question in the US is, are the silent voters the ones voting for Clinton or Trump?

The Brexit polls showed a very close race with Remain barely ahead and neither side cracking 50%. The results was a very close result! The idea that the EU referendum was predicted incorrectly is a very bad narrative that needs to stop!

 

[ZSaberLink]

Trump has been plastering Iowa with this fantastic two minute ad.

It must have played about 7 times during the Iowa-PSU game.

Probably my favorite political ad since the Simon and Garfunkel Bernie ad back during the primaries.

To be totally honest, Trump actually spoke coherently (probably reading from his prompter for once or just really good editing), for the entirety of that commercial. The imagery was pretty weird, but that message was better than I expected out of Trump lol.

 

[Staal]

To get in the mood, a local channel is now running 'The American President'.

Still a fun movie.

 

[tuxfool]

To be totally honest, Trump actually spoke coherently (probably reading from his prompter for once or just really good editing), for the entirety of that commercial. The imagery was pretty weird, but that message was better than I expected out of Trump lol.

antisemitism is a good message?

 

[BlastProcessing]

To be totally honest, Trump actually spoke coherently (probably reading from his prompter for once or just really good editing), for the entirety of that commercial. The imagery was pretty weird, but that message was better than I expected out of Trump lol.

Don't give a trained bear credit for standing on it's hind legs and spewing antisemitic rhetoric.

 

[SmackAttack]

Here are the battleground states with abbreviations (to match them up with the map in the OP) and closing times. These categories are somewhat arbitrary and you could shift several into other categories or even take a couple off the board or maybe put one or two others on depending on if you want to be aggressive or conservative. The times I have listed are when the final polls close in each state. It can take a long time to count results after that, so be patient.

The major battlegrounds:

Ohio (OH) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC.

North Carolina (NC) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC

Florida (FL) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Most polls will close an hour before but there will be no calls until after the final poll closings.

New Hampshire (NH) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Again some polls will close earlier. There are even one or two small towns (I mean really small, like 50 or so people combined) who have a tradition of voting at midnight and reporting their results immediately, so the first incredibly early (and incredibly meaningless) returns will come in a little after 5:00 AM UTC.

Nevada (NV) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC. Polls indicate a very close race, but the demographics and partisan composition of the early vote look good for Clinton.

States where a Trump victory likely indicates bad news for Clinton:

Virginia (VA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC. Beware that this takes a long time to call usually because the Democratic strongholds in Northern Virginia take a long time to count. Early returns will likely show Trump with a nominal lead with Clinton surging ahead later.

Pennsylvania (PA) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC

Maine (ME) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Maine shouldn't be that competitive, but they do have a provision for splitting their electoral votes by congressional district. Long story short, Trump is unlikely to win but could win one of its four electoral votes.

Michigan (MI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC. Actually almost all the polls will have closed an hour earlier so we may have an idea how it's going before that. Only a few rural areas wait until 9:00.

Wisconsin (WI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Colorado (CO) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

States where a Clinton victory likely indicates bad news for Trump:

Georgia (GA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC

Arizona (AZ) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Nebraska (NE) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC - Like Maine, this isn't really contested but has provisions for splitting its electoral votes by congressional district, and Clinton has a shot at taking one of its five votes.

Iowa (IA) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC

Utah (UT) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC - This is an unusual case. Utah is one of the most Republican states in the country but Trump is unappealing to the largely Mormon population. Evan McMullin, a Republican running as an independent, has been polling strongly and could take the state or take enough Republican votes to give Clinton the victory.

Any other results would be pretty big surprises. If, say, Clinton wins Missouri (MO) or Texas (TX) or Trump wins Minnesota (MN) or Oregon (OR), that's probably the election right there barring some wacky results elsewhere.

Note that if Trump wins every state he's supposed to (including the ones like GA or AZ that I listed) and wins every major battleground, that gets him to a 269-269 tie (which would probably be resolved in his favor by the House of Representatives but that's a whole story of its own). Add in the one vote from Maine or any state from the "Clinton should win list" like VA or PA then he wins. But the long story short is that Clinton has many paths to victory and Trump has few. If she wins even one of the major battlegrounds then Trump needs to pull off an upset elsewhere.

Excellent post!

Quick breakdown of important states by time of poll closing:

7:00 PM
* Virginia -- Basically a blue state now. Virginia doesn't always count quickly and the polls stay open while people are in line, so it's quite possible it won't get called early, but if it stays too close to call (instead of too early) for a long time, it might not be a great sign for Hillary.
* Georgia -- A normally red state, but Trump's been pretty weak here. Trump needs to win this to really have any chance. If it gets called fast for Trump, good sign for him.
7:30 PM
* North Carolina -- A battleground state. Trump must win all of these. Hillary basically just needs one, unless she starts losing otherwise blue states.
* Ohio -- Battleground. Leaning towards Trump, but Hillary might have a shot to win this for the land.
8:00 PM
* Florida -- The battleground of battlegrounds. Almost always gets called late.
* New Hampshire -- Battleground, but kind of a little baby one.
* Maine -- Maine's second district is a battleground with 1 electoral vote. Hopefully won't matter, because the situations where it matters aren't great.
9:00 PM
* Arizona -- A normally red state that might be in danger this year thanks to Latino turnout. Trump doesn't just want to win this, he wants to win it easily.
* Colorado -- Battleground.
* Michigan -- A normally blue state that might be tighter. Bad if Hillary loses this, although she might still make it up by winning battlegrounds.
* Texas-- One of the redder states in the union -- when Latinos don't turn out to vote. If this isn't called for Trump immediately it's going to be a real bad night for him.
* Nebraska -- Nebraska's second district may be a one vote battleground. Again, hopefully just for bragging rights.
10:00 PM
* Iowa -- Battleground.
* Nevada -- Battleground. Probably already gone for Hillary thanks to early vote. Yes, if Hillary wins every solid blue state plus Virginia, Michigan (both pretty blue) and Nevada, the election is over.
* Utah -- BY GOD! IS THAT EVAN MCMULLIN'S MUSIC?
1:00 AM
* Alaska -- Probably doesn't matter, but if Hillary has a big win, you might want to stay up to see whether she can pick up the Last Frontier.

Long quotes I know but thank you both for these. Don't let me down, Michigan!

 

[ErichWK]

I don't get the fear in this thread.
Hillary could lose NC, fl, Ohio, Iowa, and others and still get 270.

Early voting looks good in NC and Nevada.

Man. Crazy things can happen out there. I won't be settled until I know she 100% has it.

 

[brandonh83]

emails

 

[ZSaberLink]

The production values are good, but two downsides I see are that it starts off with all the negatives, so it isn't making a fully positive argument for Trump—it's basically another anti-Hillary ad. The other downside is that it's two minutes..

If I'm not mistaken, something like 60+% of Republicans are voting Republican because they're AGAINST Hillary. A similar %age of Democrats are voting Democrat because they're voting FOR Hillary. The ads reflect those sentiments.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Holy crap the wait yesterday was nuts as well, but not that bad.

I did feel like I was cheating by walking up and dropping my absentee ballot in the drop box.

 

[ZSaberLink]

antisemitism is a good message?

Don't give a trained bear credit for standing on it's hind legs and spewing antisemitic rhetoric.

Like I said, without the imagery. Yeh I know my expectations are just that low. I was surprised to hear Trump be a bit coherent.

 

[Green Yoshi]

Heard multiple of my friends in the US not going to vote because "they're both terrible". They're not even going to vote down the ticket, can't be convinced. Just silly. I hope there aren't too many people doing this, it's too important not to do your part either way.

It would not surprise me if many people think that way. So you don't feel responsible if one of them gets elected.

Obama would win in a landslide against Trump. And he's still only 57 years old. Being president is a tough job and with 69/70 (Clinton/Trump) your best days lie behind you.