Thought about making a thread with this question but figured this thread is essentially TV-GAF, so I'll post it here.
Over the past few days, some interesting snippets of info have hit me and I've started thinking about what exactly it all means for how we consume TV (network/cable). The two snippets:
- the comment above that Lucifer is likely not going to be renewed, despite the fact that apparently 4M people watch the show (its rating in the demo is 1.1).
- my son telling me we could stop DVR'ing a couple of the shows he watches because he'd catch them on Netflix when they become available later
- the, in my opinion, archaic notion that the ad audience remains in the 18-49 space, despite what appears to be more and more of those 18-25 year olds abandoning network/cable for streaming, whereas the upper end of the 49 might be more "set in their ways" for watching scheduled TV
And really this all comes down to scheduled TV. I personally watch the following TV live:
- ABC World News with David Muir at 6:30, especially over the last year or so leading into the travesty of this election and now the fallout (hopefully not nuclear)
- Live sporting events, mostly NFL Football, though sometimes NHL Hockey
- Event TV Shows, which for me are The Walking Dead (which I still time delay by about 20 minutes so that I can FF through ads) and Game of Thrones (which doesn't have ads).
Everything else I either watch a DVR'd copy or stream it (via On Demand DirecTV, Netflix or Amazon Prime).
I don't know if I'm typical. My wife and I are 49, we have 19 and 17 year old boys. This is basically how we all view TV. Even my wife, who doesn't watch football, will tend to stream or grab DVR'd shows rather than watch something live while me and the boys are engrossed in a football game.
I put all this out there as a basis for the discussion to follow. Basically, I think network/cable TV is in transition. Clearly they're not getting the viewership per channel or per show they were getting when the options were fewer. But also clearly, it's impossible to look at ratings alone and make a determination that a show should be canceled. A show that performs poorly in its live slot may rise in its L+3 or L+7 or may perform very well on Netflix (see son's comment above where he'd prefer to watch his network TV that way). But are those shows that may attract viewers on Netflix doomed to failure if they cannot attract a live or L+3 following to sustain their budget?
With some networks, such as CBS, attempting to create their own paid streaming services, with their own exclusive content (new Star Trek), we seem to be getting more and more into what almost appear to be console wars. Certainly Netflix and Amazon Prime and Hulu have begun their own original programming. But at what point will I turn to NBC and not necessarily see a show that is scheduled for 8PM but a selection of available shows to watch? Is that the future, where regardless of whether it's network/cable or streamed via a device, the option for what entertainment is left to the viewer? And if so, at what point do ads become mandatory viewing, because the entertainment we consume on network/cable TV is partially paid for by advertising?
Anyway, thought it might be interesting discussion to posit how network/cable TV will change in the near future.
