unsurprisingly, my results aren't different to yours so far
apart from the fact that I care a little less about the environment because fuck earth
apart from the fact that I care a little less about the environment because fuck earth
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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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DiipuSurotu
Banned
That would be brave of him but I don't think it will happen. It would pretty much be the death of the PS.
I have no idea but seeing a mainstream party dropout would make them look even worse?
Yeah. If it happened it may not even help Melenchon much.I rather Hamon stay in the race. It's easier for the PS to recover after the presidential election if he does stay in the race and less painful for them.
Also this is amazing.
http://www.leparisien.fr/elections/...seul-preuve-de-travail-11-04-2017-6846039.php
One FN MEP payed their assistant 31000 euros after that assistant worked for them for 8 months. The only proof of evidence given to investigators that the assistant was doing the job he was suppose to do was a text message sent during the 8 month period.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
I don't see Fillon getting on the second turn (perdon my francization) so for me, Macron is the worst opponent to Le Pen. You have profund political mechanism that cannot be seen in pools and the profond disgust of Hollandism is one of them. I think it's a very dangerous scenario for every opponent to Lepen but i feel Melanchon could win it easily since he motivating a lot of people who would not vote in general. Macron would without a doubt call to vote for Mélenchon if he is against Lepen at the end and certainly all the «republican front» will do. In the case of Macron you will have the republican front but not the popular class. I know people more willing to vote for Fillon than Macron because of the treachury he represent.
Alx
Member
Macron is getting a surprising support from the same people he's supposed to have "betrayed". Apparently those are much less affected by it than voters...
Besides there's no treachery/treason there, it's how the fifth republic works. Everybody is allowed to run on his own ; Michèle Alliot-Marie tried to run too, and nobody calls her a traitor(ess ?). The only difference is that Macron succeeds where others fail.
When you look back at former "betrayals", for example when Balladur ran against Chirac, Balladur wasn't the traitor since he was in his perfect right. Sarkozy was though, since he switched side and went from supporting Chirac to supporting Balladur.
Today someone like Valls clearly betrayed his side (he promised to support the winner of the primaries, and finally went to Macron), but Macron himself played it fair.
But at the same time you have the corrupt versus corrupt element in play with fillon which will hurt fillon in a matchup against le pen, I don't think Macron will obliterate le pen.He will likely win 60 to 40 against her. Melenchon is a bit tricky to predict. He could either win 67-33 against Le Pen, 57-43 against Le Pen, barely win against her or even lose. It just depends on turnout and how favourable the electorate is for Melenchon and if centrist voters would even want to hold their noises for him. The working class is a small part of france. It does not play as big of a role as it does in the US and other countries in elections. Macron will definitely obliterate le pen in the cities even though he may struggle a bit in rural areas.Macron is the safest bet to win in a landslide even though he may be hurt a bit by turnout in the second round. And seriously I don't think Macron will be hurt much by his work in the Hollande government.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
The vast majority of french IS working class. I am not speaking only of factory workers but anybody who have a strong intrest of maitaining the french social system and the «code du travail»
Nah. I referring to the same type of working class voters(the white working class) that elected trump and voted for Brexit. That ones that work in factories, coal mines and etc and live in more rural areas and small towns even.Le Pen could win these voters like 70-30 and still lose the election if her oppponent gets a significant number of other types of voters to vote for them.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
There's not enough of this sort of person to do what you are talking about. Manufacturing and related industries like coal only account for 15% of UK employment, for example. It's actually higher in France (22%). You need to be worried about people who work in retail, the retired, those who live in form industrial areas, etc - a lot wider than you think. Golden_Pigeon is entirely right.
Wok
Member
Zero chance: Hamon needs to have at least 5% of the votes so that the State reimburses his campaign.
I mean at some point it'd be nice to vote for a candidate that somewhat represents your views and not just go in from the start with the sole purpose of winning against Le Pen. It's not like second round polls so far have been catastrophic for Macron.
And I'm not sure I understand your argument when you keep mentioning the working class but then say people are more likely to vote Fillon of all people.
Herb Alpert
Banned
Yeah,Fuck useful vote.
People should choose something they believe in. The offer is wide this year, one can find a candidate.
Useful vote jams the signal.
Harmon dropping out of the race would make it easier for Melanchon to get more votes in the first round and get to the second round possibly according to some of Melenchon's supporters.The truth is the instant Hamon drops out of the race it's likey some of his supporters migrate to Macron giving him another polling boost while some migrate to Melenchon.They probably will spilt hamon's voters evenly or in a way that doesn't hurt Macron much.I do not want hamon to drop out of the race because it would be a terrible move.
Alx
Member
Well it would mostly be about charisma and human/social values I guess. If I had to make the choice, I'd go with Mélenchon because he has more "healthy" values than the FN and there are more chances to steer his crazy ideas into reasonable politics. I would be dead worried though.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm inclined to agree. I don't think Hamon dropping out would change things enormously about the race. The fact he still has voters left implies those remaining are roughly halfway between Macron and Melenchon - if they preferred either Macron to Melenchon or Melenchon to Macron clearly, they'd probably have already defected given Hamon's performance and the importance of ensuring the right second-round result. I think they'd now split pretty evenly; Melenchon has already managed to get as much from Hamon as he can (which was not true a few weeks ago when it was unclear who between Melenchon and Hamon would be the frontrunner).
It'd still be more beneficial for Melenchon if Hamon dropped out because Macron is in all likelihood through to the second round anyway whereas half of Hamon's vote makes a difference to Melenchon, but it's not a game-changer.
Arthaud was asked and didn't even want to make a common candidacy with Poutou. Too big of a risk to get like 3% on arrival
And we might need to get the threshold to 750 signatures at some point. If the only condition for the candidates to get 500 is to wake up early enough to call the mayors, it's just not good enough.
The lowest turnout expected right now is for a Fillon/Lepen 2nd round. Also it's the closest result predicted.
Melenchon is given 57/43 vs Le Pen and Macron 61/49.
And please, just please, stop calling socialism extreme.
No.
Edit: on second thought this maybe too extreme on my side. I was thinking more about him being anti-system
I was thinking that Fillon/MLP is the other candidate for lowest turnout.
What are the chances that Lepen doesn't go through to the second round? I think that would make the second round more interesting.
Fair point.
Hard to predict right know, but if the dynamics of the last two weeks are confirmed, each one of the 4 could be in the 2nd round.
Lepen loses to everyone. Macron is the only one winning against everybody right know (Macron/Mélenchon is surprisingly close).
Fillon/Mélenchon hasn't be tested.
My results regarding that Le Monde test:
As a German I'm not too knowledgeable about the French institutions, my main drift to the right (in this picture) is probably because I'm a big fan of proportional representation (naturally, one might say).
I'd probably vote for Macron, because European integration is more important to me than economic policies (where I'm not really that much into interventionism).
As a German I'm not too knowledgeable about the French institutions, my main drift to the right (in this picture) is probably because I'm a big fan of proportional representation (naturally, one might say).
I'd probably vote for Macron, because European integration is more important to me than economic policies (where I'm not really that much into interventionism).
Reading through Melenchon's program, does he mean NATO here?
Or what?
Edit: yeap, it's further down the road:
Also, can he really impose these in any way:
I saw a Plan A and Plan B for EU, plan B being France being bullies with the EU and the neighbours. When should plan B apply?
Edit2:
How would this alter-globalisation alliance work since these countries have often divergent interests? And some of them profit a lot from globalisation.
Or what?
Edit: yeap, it's further down the road:
Also, can he really impose these in any way:
I saw a Plan A and Plan B for EU, plan B being France being bullies with the EU and the neighbours. When should plan B apply?
Edit2:
How would this alter-globalisation alliance work since these countries have often divergent interests? And some of them profit a lot from globalisation.
Alx
Member
The way I understand it, plan B applies if he doesn't get everything he asks for. Which makes it plan A, since you never get everything you ask for in a negotiation.
Also it makes the referendum dishonest, since it makes you choose between a less liberal EU and no EU at all. What about those who want a more liberal EU or are fine with the statu quo ? Well fuck them, I guess.
A referendum should always be between change and statu quo, never between change A and change B.
Especially as China now promotes globalisation wherever they can after Trump got elected.
Any Hamon supporter that would be for more EU integration would rather vote Fillon over Mélenchon at this point so it's automatic win for Macron.
Hamon being out would be absolutely a fuck you to anyone who took any interest in the Primary on the Left.
He's here to stay.
They're protest candidates so it makes sense.
It doesn't make sense to have Mélenchon reaping the rewards of a primary he didn't even want to take any part of and actually mocked.
He was shitting on anyone taking part of it, it makes sense only in the mind of Melenchon's stooges.
Might as well let anyone in.
The signature system only benefit fringe candidates that personally know mayors.
Another fucked up way to shit on anyone not part of the political unions.
Might as well call them that, CGT certainly did more for me in the last 20 years than any political party.
Palette Swap
Member
Generally speaking, it seems a bit weird to me, almost anachronistic, to make (anti-)Atlanticism such a large banner to rally under when there's a huge chance the paradigm will shift anyway thanks to Trump and Brexit.
This whole "we get out of NATO and EU, stop financing EU, but we're going to finance BRICS and start an alternate alliance with Russia and China against the financial evil of Europe and US" seems very strange to me. Not even touching the fact that there is probably more Russian and Chinese black money around than the anybody's else.
I understand somehow the approach to BRICS, but it's something that was relevant maybe 15 years ago, not now.
I don't think we have any way to really know but I'd rather disagree on this one.
I'd say that what's remain of Hamon's supporters are the core PS supporters not leaning towards Macron, for these ones they all had multiple occasions to switch during the campain while for those hesitating with Melenchon Hamon is trying its hardest to keep them, and despite its best efforts (mind I think it's the first time I liked that much the way a candidate was speaking about its views what he wants for the future and how he presents it in a non hyperbolic way and didn't feel the need to shout it to make it believable) the way he's doing it just... doesn't work.
He's also trying to get new electors but that one is a "serpent de mer" that didn't lead anyone anywhere in a presidential election, I'm sure he's filled with good intentions there but it just won't work.
One month ago I was sharing this article which was calling for Melenchon to retire and support Hamon, it clearly would have been my prefered option but that didn't happen and Hamon's dropped hard and fast and while his quote about "polls and Valmy" was one of its best oneit unfortunately didn't help much.
So here we are today currently at this point where the opposite of what I originally wished for is what I wish for today, mind "the opposite" is a strong word, the real direct opposite would be wishing for Macron, Fillon or Le Pen and thankfully I didn't change my mind this much in one month, in fact I didn't change at all both candidates have always been very close on many topics and when you reach 2nd turn it's only natural to modify some of your stances to accommodate for new allies.
As stated in the last article linked the PS might as well be dead already, it was always torn between those who were socialist only by names and the socialists, problem being that the former were promising the same thing than the latter during elections while betraying these expectations later on dragging down the whole party with them.
I'm fine with the PS splitting in two separate entities, one with all the one which are really from center right (Valls, Macron and cie) which might as well include Bayrou and people from UDI and a new Socialist Party with all the progressists (Hamon, Montebourg, Aubry etc) and even a few ecologists and communits if their idea fit.
It's fine if everyone has different ideas, but if they are just too different especially on crucial topics it should also be fine to split up rather than trying to keep together a clusterfuck of personalities that have next to nothing in common, this is what is blurring the lines and creating the "UMPS" that the Front National keep using in the first place.
(Though the overall trend is for the two main politics party to try to go as right as they can, because while you can find some people from PS being very close to UMP in their views the opposite isn't happening at all)
Btw
EDIT
The wording of this is a bit odd, for this one they're opposing "simplification" to "protection des salariés" other questions were very straightforward and if this one had been to we should have read "moins de protection des salariés" and "plus de protection des salariés", but yeah I 100% understand why they wrote it that way and it saddens me.
Palette Swap
Member
This surprised me too when I took the survey.
I might have missed something but I don't see how Hamon is different from Macron on this issue, so that seems a bit unfair to him TBH.
Yeah. Hamon is not really pro-Russia from what I read about him.
I think it's interesting that people complain about this thread being too pro-Macron and then you have people wondering why Hamon doesn't drop out to help Mélenchon. In what universe would socialists want to get Mélenchon elected? The guy is dead set on destroying everything they have built in the last half-century at least, not too mention the socialist party itself.
People really live in weird bubbles, if you don't see how Mélenchon is an extremist candidate for a massive share of the french population (I want to say a majority but really I have no idea), how can you attack other people for being biased? (not that there aren't thought bubbles on the right or the center of course)
Also since when is it so hip to gratuitously hate on Macron? Why is everyone starting every statement about him with "Not that I love Macron, but..."? The guy looks like a good candidate to me, I'm not afraid to say that I will be happy to vote for him. I don't understand this weird french obsession with being utterly disgusted with mainstream politicians. Nobody even knows why, but everyone feel they have to despise them.
People really live in weird bubbles, if you don't see how Mélenchon is an extremist candidate for a massive share of the french population (I want to say a majority but really I have no idea), how can you attack other people for being biased? (not that there aren't thought bubbles on the right or the center of course)
Also since when is it so hip to gratuitously hate on Macron? Why is everyone starting every statement about him with "Not that I love Macron, but..."? The guy looks like a good candidate to me, I'm not afraid to say that I will be happy to vote for him. I don't understand this weird french obsession with being utterly disgusted with mainstream politicians. Nobody even knows why, but everyone feel they have to despise them.
I don't want hamon to drop out. Should have worded my post earlier a bit better. Some people esepcially on the far left think Hamon is preventing Melenchon from rising higher in polls at this point which I don't believe.I don't think Hamon dropping out if he could legally would help Melenchon at this point.
And_Gignac
Member
Melenchon making it over Macryon(ism) would be delicious. There goes the last hope of third way liberals.
InaSnowBoundLand
Member
I am glad Hamon has called out Melenchon's accommodation of the far-right autocrat Vladimir Putin.
Melenchon is both charming and insufferable. His policies on EU, NATO are troubling.
Melenchon is both charming and insufferable. His policies on EU, NATO are troubling.
The hamon mélenchon thing is not necessarily about being biased. It's about the fact that hamon is to the left of PS, and so is mélenchon. People feel there is some overlap in their platforms. Actually, the candidates themselves feel there is some overlap in their platforms. So much so that hamon called for mélanchon to join him, insistently, and on numerous occasions. It's been reported that, in private discussions, hamon contended that mélenchon needed to join up with him, because they were defending the same values (more or less), and that he (hamon) was at the time polling higher. Now that the winds have changed, mélanchon's team has not been shy about returning the courtesy.
So there are well defined ideological, political and tactical reasons why these two joining in a way or another can be legitimately discussed. That being said, I think it's pretty clear that hamon will not drop out in favor of mélenchon, if for no other reason than trying to get 5% and recouping costs, and also probably to have PS represented in the first round.
It's anyone's right to like the guy and feel comfortable voting for him, nobody's questioning that. Conversely people have a right to not appreciate the guy. It doesn't have to be about being hip or biased.
Overall, there's been some back and forth in this thread, it's been very pro macron. To an extent that it's kept some people away. People have noticed and pushed back. Now we're going through a weird "not that I love macron but" kind of phase. It'll pass, and I don't think it's preventing discussion.
It would make me puke personally.
I want to see him beat Fillon, but that's more because Fillon needs pathetic results to really drive home the point that he should have dropped out. I'm sure internally he'll keep feeling he's just a victim, but hopefully that'll wake the others up (who am I kidding).
I'd love to see him beat Le Pen as well, as long as Macron does too. Le Pen missing the second round would be a massive failure for pollsters, but a victory for the country. Don't see it happening though.
Just 10 more days.
Yeah really delicious, you get to watch all the people who hate racism and don't want to destroy two generations of work to end war and nationalism in Europe lose their last hope, what fun!
Clearly people can like Macron or not, but he seems to be getting the Sarkozy treatment and no one even has an explanation why. Everyone has to qualify any positive statement about him with some kind of "But he's no angel" type of disclaimer.As far as I know the guy is a pretty clean politician, doesn't seem to be involved in any shady stuff, so why are people talking about him the way people on the right talk about holding their nose to vote for Fillon?
It looks like the result of pure propaganda to me, where people don't even know why they feel a certain way, but obviously that might be my bias talking.
Alx
Member
Some of it may be propaganda, but it's also natural reaction (not that it's a good thing). Since he doesn't claim to be of a specific "side" and has no history as leader, most people who already feel affiliated to a party see him as an opponent, so the instinctive first reaction is negative. Also let's be honest, he doesn't really ooze charisma, which doesn't help.
But there are definitely some shady innuendos too, like a commentator said, "nobody would mention his past in the bank that much if it had been the Crédit Agricole". For some reason you always hear the "Rothschild" keyword. Think also about the infamous caricature from the LR side too that was quickly taken down, and there is still some latent antisemitism there, conscious or not (I don't even know if Macron belongs to a specific religion, and don't care).
And like I said earlier, that banker profile seems important for Macron in the eyes of many people, when few people ever mentioned it for Emmanuelli...
But there are definitely some shady innuendos too, like a commentator said, "nobody would mention his past in the bank that much if it had been the Crédit Agricole". For some reason you always hear the "Rothschild" keyword. Think also about the infamous caricature from the LR side too that was quickly taken down, and there is still some latent antisemitism there, conscious or not (I don't even know if Macron belongs to a specific religion, and don't care).
And like I said earlier, that banker profile seems important for Macron in the eyes of many people, when few people ever mentioned it for Emmanuelli...
Do you even know what kind of law he did with the government ? the hate isn't gratuitous.
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