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[JonnyDBrit]

I don't get how this will win them more seats? Who's going to vote for them? The opposition may be weak but we choose psychopaths instead? I don't understand UK politics in the slightest.

Look at the polls. Confidence in labour is low, Conservatives can seem like the option to steady the ship for moderates. Meanwhile Labour may very well bleed Leave voters if Corbyn doesn't out screaming about how he'd punch Juncker in the Junck, but pretty much agreeing with the Conservatives on the matter will make more moderates wonder what the difference would be, so they'll stick with the current government.

 

[jem0208]

I don't get how this will win them more seats? Who's going to vote for them? The opposition may be weak but we choose psychopaths instead? I don't understand UK politics in the slightest.

"The biggest argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter"

I'm still mad about the AV referendum, the BS the Tories spread in that campaign has been overshadowed by more recently lies but still...

Yup it's sickening, straight up lies and propaganda.

 

[Charles Brandon]

A tax-haven is a simple way for them to attract satellite offices where the income flows to without having to employ people in that region. Like how Ireland and Apple have gotten along. There's very little infrastructure in place in Ireland for Apple beyond some business suits.

This is true I suppose. There is much debate about how much effect the corporation tax drop has actually had. Some credit it with the Celtic Tiger, others are more sceptical for the reason you have stated. However, what I posted is the theory and the reason why the UK is threatening to do the same. It will obviously have some effect, it's just a question of 'how much?.

Well the LibDems aren't going to campaign to revert Brexit, they're going to go for soft Brexit. Labour could go for that.

Corbo is pro-FOM and anti-SM for dogmatic reasons. His electorate are split between the big metro voters who are broadly pro-FOM and pro-SM and the traditional Labour heartlands who are anti-FOM and probably pro-SM. However, as long as you don't dig too deep, Corbyn is aligned with the heartlands, they both want brexit but for different reasons. As soon as Corbyn starts getting into detail about what he wants, he splits with the heartlands, which is why he is typically vague and wishy washy.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Lib Dems are pumped for this. Much better than waiting for 2020 to get our MPs back.

It probably will be good for you guys

 

[Roberto Larcos]

So, realistically. How much % can Lib Dems gain on a anti brexit campaign? Can they overtake labour?

This has come at a bad time for the Lib Dems. 2020 was actually fairly ideal - negative effects of Brexit would be in full swing, Corbyn would still be tanking Labour even further, and perhaps May would have lost control of the narrative that everything is under control. Unless something catastrophic happens by June, the Lib Dems' position on Brexit will be painted as 'moaning' and nothing more.

One small plus point is that the Lib Dems often do very well in local elections, and they're scheduled for 4th of May. They might be fresh enough in the mind to give the Lib Dems a real poll boost, getting them more airtime, and fooling enough into thinking that they've overtaken Labour as England's second-biggest party.

Finally, spare a thought for the candidates for Manchester Gorton. The by-election is scheduled for the 4th of May as well - meaning that there's a very real chance that whoever is elected will only remain as MP for Gorton for 1 month.

 

[nOoblet16]

It's a gift for them, can only win from it.

Considering​ their destruction in 2015, they are only gaining from this yea

 

[SomedayTheFire]

I don't know. Didn't Ireland kinda do the low corporation tax thing? It seemed to work out pretty well for them. And our weather is marginally better.

not really lol

 

[nOoblet16]

May said "Let the people decide".
Just lol

 

[Deleted member 231381]

This has come at a bad time for the Lib Dems. 2020 was actually fairly ideal - negative effects of Brexit would be in full swing, Corbyn would still be tanking Labour even further, and perhaps May would have lost control of the narrative that everything is under control. Unless something catastrophic happens by June, the Lib Dems' position on Brexit will be painted as 'moaning' and nothing more.

One small plus point is that the Lib Dems often do very well in local elections, and they're scheduled for 4th of May. They might be fresh enough in the mind to give the Lib Dems a real poll boost, getting them more airtime, and fooling enough into thinking that they've overtaken Labour as England's second-biggest party.

Finally, spare a thought for the candidates for Manchester Gorton. The by-election is scheduled for the 4th of May as well - meaning that there's a very real chance that whoever is elected will only remain as MP for Gorton for 1 month.

Actually, they will never become MP, as parliament will have been dissolved and thus they cannot be sworn in. It is an entirely pointless election.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Considering​ their destruction in 2015, they are only gaining from this yea

This is our big chance to hit the big time.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

Something that happens every 5 years at a minimum, for the past few centuries, versus a constitutional issue that makes Brexit look simple.

They aren't the same, at all.

"Now is not the time to be distracted by elections, we must focus fully on securing the best Brexit deal for the whole country."

 

[Charles Brandon]

Sorta but opposition could decided when they wanted to call a general election. Under the current system that's not really the case anymore.

The opposition never got to decide. The previous system was the government could call at any time but there was a max term of five years. The current system is effectively the same in practice but with more jiggery pokery required.

 

[Black Republican]

as a briton living in Canada, i guess i have a duty!

 

[Charles Brandon]

 

[iapetus]

This is our big chance to hit the big time.

Please don't fuck it up.

 

[tomtom94]

That would imply Labour were winning, though. Unless I've got my NUFC history wrong again.

 

[Charles Brandon]

That would imply Labour were winning, though. Unless I've got my NUFC history wrong again.

nah they were behind by then

 

[DavidDesu]

"BRELEXION?"


I'm Scottish and pro independence and I only see this shoring up the indy vote yet further in Scotland so in that sense it's not a bad thing. Terrible for the UK as we have the Tories dominating while Labour continue to flounder and a super hard Brexit on it's way unless some miracle occurs and Remainers can sort out a voting strategy. But that's pretty much not gonna happen.

As for Scotland, yet again the Tories say one thing about us, then do the opposite on their own turf. Now is not the time for a divisive independence referendum when we should all be focused on Brexit negotiations. Few weeks later May calls a general election. The more ammo the Tories chuck the Yes movement's way the better. Any rational person gauging the trustworthiness of both sides can see the Unionist side has virtually no real arguments left that haven't been absolutely smashed (usually from their own actions).

 

[CyclopsRock]

This is our big chance to hit the big time.

Mate you guys are fuccckkkeeedddd.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Please don't fuck it up.

We have the best leadership since Kennedy, the best team behind them since Kennedy, and more members than we've ever had this century, and we just got over 1000 more this morning.

We are not going to fuck this up.

 

[tomtom94]

nah they were behind by then

Ah, I see. Well, Labour and Newcastle seem to be going in roughly the same direction at the moment (firmly in second but losing steam fast) so there's that.

 

[CalamityPixel]

Labour are a mess and the majority are gonna vote conservatives again. :/

 

[CCS]

Ah, I see. Well, Labour and Newcastle seem to be going in roughly the same direction at the moment (firmly in second but losing steam fast) so there's that.

Yes, but at least Labour have been relevant at some point in the last 15 years

 

[Charles Brandon]

Ah, I see. Well, Labour and Newcastle seem to be going in roughly the same direction at the moment (firmly in second but losing steam fast) so there's that.

it definitely doesn't stand up to scrutiny, more of a 'lol and move on' type joke

 

[chromatic9]

How is a low turn out handled in this instance? Are we just left in a similar position to now?

 

[JonnyDBrit]

We have the best leadership since Kennedy, the best team behind them since Kennedy, and more members than we've ever had this century, and we just got over 1000 more this morning.

We are not going to fuck this up.

I mentioned I might vote labour in my area due to the demographics, but I suppose I should at least try to campaign on our party's behalf in that time. Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky.

How is a low turn out handled in this instance? Are we just left in a similar position to now?

Depends on who doesn't turn out. It's an unclear factor since we'll have had three straight years of major political decision making by the electorate, four if you count the Scottish independence referendum. That may make people frustrated, tired, and unwilling, but Brexit is also such a single issue it'll hold the turnout of fringe groups.

 

[twofoldd]

The slim majority the Tories currently hold means that the government is far more vulnerable to rebellions by backbenchers pushing a certain agenda.

With this GE she [May] can consolidate her position against threats from within.

I read it as a hint that she may be planning unpopular moves from a Tory standpoint. Perhaps single market membership?

Interesting post from Reddit.

 

[DECK'ARD]

Mate you guys are fuccckkkeeedddd.

They really aren't, the only party with a clear identity on it. Will drag them out of irrelevance.

Makes them the defacto opposition. Labour are screwed with all the mixed-messaging.

 

[Pandy]

Labour are a mess and 35-40% are gonna vote conservatives again. :/

FTFY

Interesting post from Reddit.

Don't think that single market membership bit holds up, as she'd get support for that from the SNP, Lib Dems, and probably some portion of Labour (though I have no idea where they stand on that sort of thing just now).

Could be for some other policies she is planning, but I don't think that particular example makes sense.

 

[Protome]

It does kinda feel like this election will be a dividing up of Labour's voters amongst the other parties. Remainers to the Lib dems, Leavers to the Tories.

 

[aeolist]

rofl

 

[CyclopsRock]

We have the best leadership since Kennedy, the best team behind them since Kennedy, and more members than we've ever had this century, and we just got over 1000 more this morning.

We are not going to fuck this up.

Dude, you are. Ashcroft's polling suggests hardly anyone knows who Farron is and the people that do hate him. They're losing Leavers to the Tories and most people don't even know their policy on the EU. They're fucked and dead.

 

[D4Danger]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9sqkeaXoAAmkSs.jpg[img]

rofl[/QUOTE]

Not much you can say to that is there. I think some people just want to vote for the winning side like The Sun.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

To be blunt, this blows open the status quo.

The Tories are going to win a landslide unless the Lib Dems stop them. That is the narrative of this election. Tories vs Liberals with Labour as a broken irrelevance.

This is the recent Canada GE again.

 

[UtterlyPerplexed]

Sod it. My MP is Lucy Powell and I can at least give her some credit for bailing from the Shadow Cabinet last June when it became clear what a fucking useless sack of fermenting shit Corbyn was during the entire referendum.

EDIT: And it's a safe Labour seat anyway, so there's no point in entertaining a Lib Dem protest vote.

 

[Meadows]

Well done Momentum.

 

[Pandy]

rofl

Amazing.

 

[Audioboxer]

It is and it isn't. It is because it will be an election utterly dominated by a single issue. It isn't because there is no easy way to make an effective anti-brexit vote (although it is easy to make a pro-brexit vote). So the result will be claimed as a landslide pro-brexit mandate, even though there is no way of voting anti-brexit (in most seats).

A GE is still about how you want the country to be ran. It is a bit smoke and mirrors to just make this pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit. However, sure, I accept that is how 90% of the general population will treat this.

Also, shitposting Sturgeon on Twitter is the best Sturgeon

It's like the "good" version of Donald Trump on Twitter (a sketchy sentence if I do say so myself). A little bit of this spice is what Corbyn/Labour need.

 

[Moze]

rofl

Crying at this.

 

[Arttemis]

Would anyone mind explaining a few points of confusion for me?

May is leader of the Conservative Party, but she was pro-remain before the referendum. She was then elected to 'make the best of it'.

With this election, is she expecting more Labor or Conservative MPs to be brought in? It seems like this is an opportunity to help Labor as fears of losing the support of the EU set in.

 

[Zvonimir Boban]

rofl

I don't know whether to laugh or get angry

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Would anyone mind explaining a few points of confusion for me?

May is leader of the Conservative Party, but she was pro-remain before the referendum. She was then elected to 'make the best of it'.

With this election, is she expecting more Labor or Conservative MPs to be brought in?

Conservatives.

Part of the problem for May is that her current majority in Parliament is rather small. So if backbenchers want to challenge her, they don't need that many to go against the party line and deny her the majority of votes needed to pass legislation. Meanwhile, polling suggests that Labour's popularity has basically collapsed unser Corbyn's leadership. So she's hoping to grab more seats in Parliament, making it easier to pass legislation unchallenged. It also removes one of the criticisms that has dogged her - that her Prime Ministership was not approved by the country at large.

 

[Dougald]

With this election, is she expecting more Labor or Conservative MPs to be brought in? It seems like this is an opportunity to help Labor as fears of losing the support of the EU set in.

Take a look at the current poll numbers and it will become clear why she's calling an election

 

[Mr. Sam]

With this election, is she expecting more Labor or Conservative MPs to be brought in? It seems like this is an opportunity to help Labor as fears of losing the support of the EU set in.

The thing is a) Labour aren't popular, b) Labour aren't anti-Brexit and c) Theresa May is the leader of the Conservatives.

 

[plagiarize]

Guess I'm going to be voting lib dem for the first time ever.

I can't believe that, after the awful coalition crap, this is where we are.

 

[AGoodODST]

Would anyone mind explaining a few points of confusion for me?

May is leader of the Conservative Party, but she was pro-remain before the referendum. She was then elected to 'make the best of it'.

With this election, is she expecting more Labor or Conservative MPs to be brought in? It seems like this is an opportunity to help Labor as fears of losing the support of the EU set in.

The Conservatives currently have a small majority. This puts May in a unstable position due to the threat of rebellion by her MP's.

By holding an election she is gambling that she can get a bigger majority.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Yup, this is an entirely self-interested GE that nobody wants. May has u-turned. Amongst soft Conservatives she won't be terribly popular.

Again, the only winners from this GE are Liberal Democrats and the Tories that seize safe Labour seats.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yup, this is an entirely self-interested GE that nobody wants. May has u-turned. Amongst soft Conservatives she won't be terribly popular.

Again, the only winners from this GE are Liberal Democrats and the Tories that seize safe Labour seats.

Quoted for posterity.

 

[Thornton Reed]

I guess I won't be voting for the first time ever

 

[ShutEye]

Interesting post from Reddit.

That was my read as well. May delivers enhanced majority. Gets capital / buffer l to pursue pathways unpopular to the base. I think this logic is driving financial markets positioning atm too