Bits N Pieces
Member
She wasn't elected by the people, she was elected by her party after Cameron chucked it.
Theresa May Statement: June 8th General Election requested
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She wasn't elected by the people, she was elected by her party after Cameron chucked it.
Delusibeta
Banned
Two problems with this post:
1) The polls have consistently underrepresented conservative sentiment. This is obviously good news for the Conservatives.
2) The Brexit polls were far closer for months than the national polls. I don't recall Remain ever getting a ten point lead, while the Tories are now in twenty point territory on a fairly regular basis.
Point is that the polls will have to be apocalypticly wrong in order for the outcome of this general election not being the Tories increasing their majority.
Didn't Cameron call for the referendum because he thought he'd walk it?
Delusibeta
Banned
Yeah, and that's why he's no longer Prime Minister.
Well well well. Looks like those old Tory backbenchers might actually have to face up to their crimes.
Could rumours of this have been what snapped the election trigger? She doesn't want By Elections losing her x seats.
You already know the answer to this.
AuthenticM
Member
Thanks
Jezbollah
Member
She could if she fielded the candidates... but that would never happen.
Turns out asking the EU if they thought we were the bees knees didn't yield the appropriate response so they've turned inwards for some gratification.
First, the indy ref is entirely a Scottish Parliament thing (well apart from getting consent) and has already passed a vote. It is happening.
There is also no way the Conservatives make any large gains in Scotland. If any party is going to take some seats from the SNP it will the Lib Dems in seats they lost last time.
Labour is fucked though for sure.
autumnleaf
Member
Labour, the opposition, have been so utterly useless since their leader Corbyn took over and in-particular since the referendum vote that the party is leaking voters and the gap between them and the Conservatives is getting bigger and bigger. The Conservatives won the last General Election by a slim majority and a vote now would give them a significant increase as Labour offer absolutely nothing at the moment. It's like kicking a man while he's down.
It does reek a bit of power trip, tbh. A lot of low-hanging fruit to be had and used later as political talking points.
I hope it blows up in May's face, though. It'd be great to see two Prime Ministers in a row destroyed by hubris.
CyclopsRock
Member
"I'm not saying you *shouldn't* vote for us, but..."
Thornton Reed
Member
Yeah he will go and that's how I'm looking at this election. We need to knock it all down and start again. The next 5 years are going to be dog shit but hopefully 5 years is enough time for labour to get a credible leader. If things are going to be as bad as we predict they've got a good chance of getting back in even if it's a bloodbath in June. The public are fickle and have no loyalty when it comes to politics. They'll turn on the tories as soon as the shit hits the fan with brexit and the reality sinks in. At that point we need a strong labour leader, a master of the dispatch box to come in and stick it to those twats in the commons. They've been let off so lightly over the past few years when it comes to PMQs and it's been frustrating to watch
Could I get more context on this, please? So 30 Tories are about to be prosecuted or what? Am I reading this right? What for?
The first point is unlikely to be the case anymore, the polling methodology underwent an "aggressive" rebalancing towards the Tories post 2015. If anything a few of the psephologists think there's a very slight unrepresentation of the Labour support, nothing major.
Take ComRes and Opinium. ComRes for instance have done away with asking people how likely they are to vote instead basing it on a demographic screen (which obviously skews Tory as older people are more likely to vote and vote Tory), hence ComRes consistently show the biggest Tory leads. Opinium on the other show the smallest Tory leads because they don't use previous votes as a screen, and instead use a rough party identification screen instead which the thought is doesn't detect the old shy Tory effect as well. The 'correct' answer is probably somewhere in between.
More people need to vote Lib Dems.
Labour are not the only other party. We do not want a 2 party system like America.
So anyway, skipping ahead to June when the Tories have a triple figure majority, what's next for Labour?
Will Corbyn stay?
Will McDonnell or Abbot try and take his place?
Will David Miliband try and get a seat?
Despite how bleak things are it might be nice to have a functioning opposition for a change.
Will Corbyn stay?
Will McDonnell or Abbot try and take his place?
Will David Miliband try and get a seat?
Despite how bleak things are it might be nice to have a functioning opposition for a change.
Ravensmash
Member
Too many people are caught up on this student fees stuff (I realise I'm risking wrath dismissing that), and not remembering how effective they were in that coalition.
And not only that, but they were in a coalition - they didn't hold all the keys to power.
Corbyn could be the political equivalent of a cockroach, so it's over to Trump and whether nuclear Armageddon would get rid of him or not.
cjp
Member
It's all we will ever have with FPTP.
zonetrooper5
Member
Nobody is going to vote for the piece of shit party that is the Lib Dems, especially when you got a leader like Farron who is equally as useless as Corbyn.
Either way I don't want the Tories in the power so its going be hard to choose which party to vote for if the snap election is in June and on top of that we got the local elections in a few weeks time as well.
Thornton Reed
Member
I hope to God this doesn't happen. You've just ruined my night as for some reason I didn't think of this as a possible outcome
The issue is and has been for some years that the attitude is "Won't vote Lib Dem as they won't win" and that voting Lib Dem in many constituencies can often take votes away from Labour (who are usually second) and so giving the Conservatives more seats. Hence the joy that is tactical voting.
In my constituency at least, Lib Dems used to be a very strong 2nd place to the Conservatives. In 2010 it was 50.4/37.7%, in 2005 it was 44.5/39.3%, 2001 was 46/34%, 1997 was 45/37.2%. So voting Lib Dem in those years at least might have made a difference.
Last election though? 2015 results, 56.1% Conservative, 14.4% Ukip, 13.4% Labour and just 9.7% LibDem. They used to be a strong second, in 2015 they dropped down beind the other two who were perennial also-rans.
So LibDems have a fair amount of support that just ran away in 2015, and considering we sadly voted fairly overwhelmingly in favour of Leave, LibDems won't be getting a whole lot of votes back in my area if they are campaigning on stopping Brexit.
That cost the party hard (and I largely disagree with that baclash) and will for years probably. They did some useful things in that coalition but that will mostly be ignored because they bargained away student fees in order to get it done.
A snap election favours the Tories highly too - there'll be less time for the media frenzy and by the looks of things a lack of debates, which whilst gawdy as fuck they definitely got more people engaged in politics despite the usual shite turnout. Say one thing for Tories, say they always vote.
They'll be on the phone to the Samaritans until at least the end of the month.
If Labour runs on this May is guaranteed 100+ seat majority.
Austerity is a dead issue for voters. It is done. This is not 2012. Austerity didn't work in 2015 and the tories have backed away from it.
The NHs is not a wedge issue either - voters trust May on it more than they do Corbyn. Also labour are unable to articulate a position beyond "save our NHS" when there's nothing solid they can point to about the NHS needing saving.
Note I'm not disagreeing with the principles behind this, but as an election campaign it will be an absolute disaster. This is a Brexit election, Labour pretending otherwise and running on the old, tired campaign of saving the NHS will guarantee a bloodbath,
Why do so many people predict that the Tories will win so easily?
Why does Teresa May have so much support?
Why is there so much negativity towards corbyn?
I honestly don't understand, for me corbyn looks like much better choice for the people, yet most of the poorer demographic seem to be siding with the Tories.
Why does Teresa May have so much support?
Why is there so much negativity towards corbyn?
I honestly don't understand, for me corbyn looks like much better choice for the people, yet most of the poorer demographic seem to be siding with the Tories.
Better the devil you know. People don't like change, and if you're making a case for it you have to make it convincingly.
Corbyn can't even convince himself.
Because the Tories have an unprecedented lead in the polls, and even worse British polls historically have understated their support. It will be a minor miracle if they don't get at l;east a 100 seat majority out of this.
SomethingInTheSea
Member
The backlash is because Students always get a raw deal from politicians, successive Labour politicians promised no fees/no fee rises then did exactly the opposite when elected. People thought the Lib Dems were different and would actually keep their word after explicitly making such a promise (it should have been a coalition red line) and instead they just showed that they were the same as all the rest and just like usual stabbed their supporters in the back.
The worst thing is now our university fee system actually raises less money than before due to them overestimating people's wages when graduating and the system is net more expensive than the US for students (due to the lack of support structures such as scholarships in the UK as traditionally they weren't needed).
I can't imagine any election strategy being anything other than disastrous for Labour, but frankly, what have they got to lose? They should fight an honest, angry, and indignant campaign. Jeremy Corbyn is a lost cause, and this election is lost already, so everything they do right now needs to be about building a foundation to become a real opposition again in the months that follow this election.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Had some time to chill at home and think this situation over.
If Labour's centre-left don't act decisively in the next few days, they're basically complicit in handing May power until 2022.
If Labour's centre-left don't act decisively in the next few days, they're basically complicit in handing May power until 2022.
I think if he had the chances and people could watch him they might think more of him. One of the problems has always been how his message and been filtered through the media and it's always been negative or with the narrative that he's unelectable. It's no secret many in the media don't like him like BBC's Laura Kuenssberg who doesn't even try to hide her contempt.
I'm not saying this is why he would lose because there's plenty about him people don't like for good reason but the media have done a bang up job promoting the idea of May's stability. The opinion polls certainly reflect that.
You can't blame the centre-left when they've been trying and failing to get the keys away from the drunk driver. It's not them pushing Corbyn.
JonnyDBrit
Member
To answer the first point, because the polls lean heavily in the Conservatives' favour. Yes, there's margins of error to consider, and potential biases in sources, but a regular, 15-20 gap is nothing to simply dismiss
As to why May has so much support versus Corbyn, you severely underestimate the value the average voter places in image and perception, versus actual stated or acted on policy. The Conservatives have understood and mastered this, making themselves look like responsible decision makers opposed by a dithering old man at the head of an unstable mess; which even after discounting Leave voters and diehard Conservatives, will leave many ticking beside a patriotic looking tree so as not to rock the boat, and simply hope the Tories won't screw them over.
I understand the backlash truly I do. I just don't agree that disowning the Libdems as a result is the best thing for those votes.
Because no-one cares about these issues. He's preaching to his base. You're right that an angry, indignant campaign full of passion could work - but not on these things. The notion that austerity is going to motivate someone who didn't vote labour in 2015 to now vote labour is ludicrous.
Corbyn should be out giving amazing speeches of fire and passion about how fucked the common man is under Brexit, how May is selling the country down the river for headlines to the same businessmen who don't pay a penny in taxes.
So, as someone unknowledgeable to UK politics, what's the reason as to why the liberal parties are so powerless? And I don't want empty zingers, like I need actual information.
Also, someone in here suggested that the UK doesn't want a two party system like the US... but I actually think it could help to have a smaller number of parties, since the UK isn't nearly as big or dense as the US, and it could help the issue of the liberal vote being split between multiple parties.
Also, someone in here suggested that the UK doesn't want a two party system like the US... but I actually think it could help to have a smaller number of parties, since the UK isn't nearly as big or dense as the US, and it could help the issue of the liberal vote being split between multiple parties.
Believe
Kotetsu534
Member
If someone ever writes the book on the decline of the left in the early part of this century in the US, UK, France etc., this should be the epigraph.
To be honest, getting the people who voted in 2015 to vote in 2017 would be a massive win. This is about damage control, after all. As for austerity, I still think opposing austerity is the right thing to do even if it is one of many avenues they should use to attack. The fact is that Conservative rule has been epitomised by things getting better for the rich and worse for the poor, by services and benefits being cut, by wages for the average joe flatlining (at best). They lost the argument on austerity, I think, largely because their alternative was Austerity Lite. Far too often Labour's policy since 2010 has been "What the Tories are doing, but nicer", which doesn't excite anyone. Labour lost the austerity argument, broadly, because they accepted that austerity was necessary rather than arguing for stimulus and growth.
I agree that Labour would be making a grave error if they were to base their campaign purely around austerity and the NHS, but given austerity has been disastrous, and the NHS is in dire straits, it's hard for the opposition to ignore them.
Sigh. The sad thing is that, while I think there is a path forward for Labour, there is no way they're going to take it. Their recent pledge to continue the Triple Lock until 2025 ended any change they had of winning my vote. The one demographic which Labour should be able to guarantee capturing is the young, but with policies like that? They deserve to fail, frankly.
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