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[Alx]

How are the polls right now?

Still around 60/40 for Macron (they're fluctuating with +/- 1% , but nothing significant for the moment). Expected participation at 72% right now.
I don't think meetings or PR will change much, tomorrow's debate is the last chance for either candidate to make a difference.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Very good

 

[mo60]

Still around 60/40 for Macron (they're fluctuating with +/- 1% , but nothing significant for the moment). Expected participation at 72% right now.
I don't think meetings or PR will change much, tomorrow's debate is the last chance for either candidate to make a difference.

Yeah as long as macron does well enough in the debate he should end up beating le pen by somewhere between 18% and 22% on Sunday.

 

[dosh]

I didn't really expect Varoufakis of all people to be close to Macron (he's not really supportive of his program, but they seem to have had good interaction in the past)
http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/po...-sympathies-pour-emmanuel-macron_1903870.html

Full article (paid content) on Le Monde
http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article...ver-la-grece-votez-pour-lui_5120673_3232.html

The article is available in full and in english on his blog. Basically, Macron attempted to mediate in the debt dicussions between Greece, France and Germany and was told "No."

 

[Irminsul]

The article is available in full and in english on his blog. Basically, Macron attempted to mediate in the debt dicussions between Greece, France and Germany and was told "No."

Quote from that article:

"Is Marine Le Pen genuinely a less unpalatable proposition than her father was? Is Emmanuel Macron somehow worse, from a leftwing perspective, than Jacques Chirac was in 2002? If not, why are some leaders of the left today unwilling to support Macron against Le Pen? This is a genuine puzzle to me."

Anyone defending calls for abstention or Mélenchon's stance of "Anyone but Le Pen but not necessarily the only alternative though" should really think hard about this.

 

[Alx]

The article is available in full and in english on his blog. Basically, Macron attempted to mediate in the debt dicussions between Greece, France and Germany and was told "No."

Thanks for the link. I find it funny how his stealthy and unofficial negotiations with Greek representatives are reminiscent of the story about how he handled the Le Monde buyout earlier in his career (got caught red-handed meeting with different sides). I suppose it's how he deals with such stuff, for better or worse.

Since we're talking Mélenchon, the more I think about it the less I understand the purpose of the internal vote of the Insoumis, the results of which should be published today. Especially since their official stance is "we must stand united for the future, and everybody is free to vote how he wishes". What will today's numbers achieve then ?

 

[dosh]

Thanks for the link. I find it funny how his stealthy and unofficial negotiations with Greek representatives are reminiscent of the story about how he handled the Le Monde buyout earlier in his career (got caught red-handed meeting with different sides). I suppose it's how he deals with such stuff, for better or worse.

Ha, I didn't think of that, but you're right, it's really similar. Funny how depending on context, this either feels well intentioned (as far as politics can truly be well intentioned) or dishonest.

Since we're talking Mélenchon, the more I think about it the less I understand the purpose of the internal vote of the Insoumis, the results of which should be published today. Especially since their official stance is "we must stand united for the future, and everybody is free to vote how he wishes". What will today's numbers achieve then ?

Probably not much. I guess it will only come down to "stand on the way of Le Pen" anyway. And in any case, most of his supporters have probably already decided what they'll do on may 7, whether it's voting Macron or blanc. Or abstaining.

 

[Koren]

I think also that many people were tired of Holland intrepid sex life.

You mean Holland's, Sarkozy's (Si tu reviens, j'oublie tout and the rest), Chirac's (although it was silent) AND Mitterand's (who had an hidden family that every journalists knew about)...
VGE's are probably just fantasies, so they don't count.

Really, I doubt Macron could do much that would weight a lot. I'm not even sure that DSK would do really bad, and that's with a far heavier charge that we (should) see with Macron.

 

[Koren]

What will today's numbers achieve then ?

Free intel on how to modulate their speech, suggesting the supporters you care... mostly populism I'd say, but that works, so why not?

Also, I thought about the "there shouldn't be pro-A anti-B demonstrations"... I still don't fully agree, but I think call for a candidate from others candidates is somehow worse. The only exception would be Dupont-Aignan: since there's an actual agreement about what will be done after, it became a part of FN program.

 

[Alx]

Ha, I didn't think of that, but you're right, it's really similar. Funny how depending on context, this either feels well intentioned (as far as politics can truly be well intentioned) or dishonest.

Indeed, which is also why I always avoid drawing hasty conclusions out of such stories, since we never see the whole picture.
It's still telling about his character I suppose, he seems to be the kind of person who thinks "fuck it, I'll do it myself !". Same story with his "En Marche" initiative, "can't get things done in a PS government ? Ok, I'll make my own party then".
It can be a risky strategy but also a good way to get things done. I won't lie, I do have some sympathy for that profile, since it can provide good engineers. Don't know about presidents, though.

 

[Alx]

Free intel on how to modulate their speech, suggesting the supporters you care... mostly populism I'd say, but that works, so why not?

Also, I thought about the "there shouldn't be pro-A anti-B demonstrations"... I still don't fully agree, but I think call for a candidate from others candidates is somehow worse. The only exception would be Dupont-Aignan: since there's an actual agreement about what will be done after, it became a part of FN program.

I'm not too fond of voting instructions either to be honest, but I wouldn't let anybody tell me who to vote for anyway. As a matter of fact if it were up to me I would even doubt the purpose of political parties to begin with, if we consider people should be smart enough to take their own decisions, without having to follow a specific program.
On the other hand our politic system is based on the untold truth that people aren't knowledgeable enough to take decisions, and need representatives to do it for them (or "lead the way" at least). By that logic one could accept that party leaders are also there to help people take a decision through their wisdom and moral values (not sure "little agreements with the candidates" count though... it's more logical but less moral).

 

[G.O.O.]

Mediapart dropping da bomb

https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/in...onal-traite-avec-des-banques-mafieuses-russes

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Mediapart dropping da bomb

https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/in...onal-traite-avec-des-banques-mafieuses-russes

Can you please make a rough translation, at least of the headline?

 

[oberjin]

I voted Hamon on the first round, but since I don't want to see Le Pen winning I'm relunctantly voting for Macron ... Abstention is not a solution.

 

[LFMartins86]

Can you please make a rough translation, at least of the headline?

The National Front has been getting money from Russian banks.

 

[G.O.O.]

Can you please make a rough translation, at least of the headline?

Sorry, I posted this with a hamburger in my hand

French investigation website Mediapart just published papers on the FN being financed by Russian banks (well known) with ties to the mafia (less known)

 

[BigAl1992]

Can you please make a rough translation, at least of the headline?

Rough translation: The Fn has dealt with russian mafia banks.

 

[oti]

Can you please make a rough translation, at least of the headline?

https://translate.google.com/transl...s-banques-mafieuses-russes&edit-text=&act=url

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Rough translation: The Fn has dealt with russian mafia banks.

Sorry, I posted this with a hamburger in my hand

French investigation website Mediapart just published papers on the FN being financed by Russian banks (well known) with ties to the mafia (less known)

The National Front has been getting money from Russian banks.

Thank you! And no problem regarding the Hamburger

 

[woodland]

Can you please make a rough translation, at least of the headline?

I haven't used my French for years, but I believe it's "The National Front does business/trades with Russian Mob Banks".

Dunno how much effect this will have as I haven't read, but didn't Le Pen say she was running independent of FN?

holy fuck I'm slow

 

[dosh]

Mediapart dropping da bomb

https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/in...onal-traite-avec-des-banques-mafieuses-russes

There's also this one.

I really wouldn't want Agathe Duparc looking at my financing campaign if I'd had anything to do with russian banks and russian money. She's been covering that topic for years, along with political corruption.

 

[Addi]

I haven't used my French for years, but I believe it's "The National Front does business/trades with Russian Mob Banks".

Dunno how much effect this will have as I haven't read, but didn't Le Pen say she was running independent of FN?

holy fuck I'm slow

She went independent like a week ago. This is from back in 2014 and 2016 when she still was president of the FN. Can't read the article since I'm not a member of that site, but the start says the banks they landed money from have all disappeared and were run by swindlers and money launderers, putting into question where the money FN got really came from.

 

[Alx]

I wonder if the timing is appropriate when the FN has blamed the media of being biased during the whole campaign.

 

[Palette Swap]

I had already forgotten about that "independent" posturing lol.
Honestly, I haven't heard or read anyone making any difference between her party and her. That she resigned from her functions between the two rounds doesn't change anything about her affiliations, her funding or her platform.

I guess this adds to her very shallow "opening", which is more a complete lack of consistent messaging while not really changing the underlying platform and values.

 

[G.O.O.]

I wonder if the timing is appropriate when the FN has blamed the media of being biased during the whole campaign.

Mediapart made no secret about their preference though, and still kept its street cred'

 

[Kuldar]

I had already forgotten about that "independent" posturing lol.
Honestly, I haven't heard or read anyone making any difference between her party and her. That she resigned from her functions between the two rounds doesn't change anything about her affiliations, her funding or her platform.

I only saw this "independent" thing here, on French forums I don't remember reading anyone who would talk about her being an independent candidate.

 

[dosh]

I wonder if the timing is appropriate when the FN has blamed the media of being biased during the whole campaign.

Some readers mention this in the comments of the article that G.O.O. linked. I can't really disagree, because this is the kind of fuel needed to support the media-bias rhetoric that Le Pen electorate has been spewing over and over for years. But fuck it: this is the FN, they deserve all the bad press they can get.
Plus this is Mediapart. They DO have a pretty strong bias anyway

 

[woodland]

I only saw this "independent" thing here, on French forums I don't remember reading anyone who would talk about her being an independent candidate.

Glad to hear the French voters seemingly aren't as duped as the ones here in the US lol. And if all the bankers are gone and the money is questionable, that's a pretty great bomb for this late.

 

[Sinsem]

I wonder if the timing is appropriate when the FN has blamed the media of being biased during the whole campaign.

Mediapart doesn't care. They release a story once it's ready.
Same thing happend in bewteen the two rounds in 2012 with Sarkozy and Libya.

 

[Alx]

Mediapart doesn't care. They release a story once it's ready.
Same thing happend in bewteen the two rounds in 2012 with Sarkozy and Libya.

I'm ok with the idea of releasing a story when it's ready. But you'll always have a doubt in people's mind on whether it was really a fresh story, or one they kept in their bag ready to use at the most convenient moment (I haven't read the whole article, so I don't know if there is recent information or it's all stuff from previous years). That's what makes the difference between a piece of information and a political weapon.
Same goes for Fillon's story btw.

 

[KingSnake]

I wonder if the timing is appropriate when the FN has blamed the media of being biased during the whole campaign.

I don't think that people who believe in a media conspiracy will change their vote anyhow, with or without the article.

 

[Coffinhal]

I'm ok with the idea of releasing a story when it's ready. But you'll always have a doubt in people's mind on whether it was really a fresh story, or one they kept in their bag ready to use at the most convenient moment (I haven't read the whole article, so I don't know if there is recent information or it's all stuff from previous years). That's what makes the difference between a piece of information and a political weapon.
Same goes for Fillon's story btw.

With that kind of spirit you can see plots everywhere and more importantly it deflects the investigation and put the incrimination towards journalists who did their job instead of talking of the content of the story published. Very, very dangerous game ; and exactly the shift of the discussion that the FN wants.

 

[Alx]

With that kind of spirit you can see plots everywhere and more importantly it deflects the investigation and put the incrimination towards journalists who did their job instead of talking of the content of the story published. Very, very dangerous game ; and exactly the shift of the discussion that the FN wants.

I'll always give them the benefit of doubt (especially since as I mentioned I haven't even read the full article yet), but independently of what FN wants or not, it is important for the press to work on the trust inspired to their readers (and non-readers).
When a story comes out at such a "convenient" moment, I think they should be especially transparent on why they release it now and not sooner (or later).

 

[Fistwell]

So FI's 2/3 in favor of abstention or vote blanc. Hmm.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Plagiarism is a severe ethical transgression and it's extremely ugly that when politicians are caught doing it, they either deny it entirely or admit tot he act but claim there's nothing wrong. I would do the maximum I could to fail a student doing what MLP has been caught doing, and every time this happens I feel more and more like giving up and telling students to go ahead and cheat because there are no consequences for being a sociopath in life.

 

[Palette Swap]

So FI's 2/3 in favor of abstention or vote blanc. Hmm.

Let's say there's a bias in there, it's still not a good look for all parties involved in this debacle.

Some people lack perspective.

Plagiarism is a severe ethical transgression and it's extremely ugly that when politicians are caught doing it, they either deny it entirely or admit tot he act but claim there's nothing wrong. I would do the maximum I could to fail a student doing what MLP has been caught doing, and every time this happens I feel more and more like giving up and telling students to go ahead and cheat because there are no consequences for being a sociopath in life.

To be fair, I'm not sure there will be consequences to stealing 5M€ from the EU taxpayer to fund her party, so exemplary morals were already long gone anyway.

 

[Kurtofan]

So FI's 2/3 in favor of abstention or vote blanc. Hmm.

i got scared until i realized it's just militants, hopefully it's not indicative of a larger trend in the voterbase.

 

[BaronLundi]

i got scared until i realized it's just militants, hopefully it's not indicative of a larger trend in the voterbase.

Around 250k so less than 4% of the voter base.

 

[Alx]

I would do the maximum I could to fail a student doing what MLP has been caught doing, and every time this happens I feel more and more like giving up and telling students to go ahead and cheat because there are no consequences for being a sociopath in life.

Apparently academics are taking plagiarism quite seriously over here. At least that's what one TV commentator (a teacher in rhetorics) explained this morning :
https://youtu.be/N3i3xgH2QIU?t=330 (video in French)
The official rule for students is that a sequence of four identical words, if unsourced, is automatically considered plagiarism, and imply an immediate rejection of the paper (zero/F mark). It could even escalate to harsher sanctions.

But of course for politicians, anything goes.

 

[Simplet]

Probably not much. I guess it will only come down to "stand on the way of Le Pen" anyway. And in any case, most of his supporters have probably already decided what they'll do on may 7, whether it's voting Macron or blanc. Or abstaining.

What do you mean either voting for Macron or abstaining? Between 10 and 25% of Mélenchon's voters are going to vote for Le Pen in the second round according to some new polls:

Selon un sondage hebdomadaire Elabe pour L'Express et BFMTV, Emmanuel Macron a perdu 5 points en une semaine, il a maintenant 59% des intentions de vote face à Marine Le Pen (41%). Pour les reports de voix, 44% (- 9) des électeurs de Jean-Luc Mélenchon comptent voter pour le candidat d'En Marche!, 23% (+ 7) veulent voter pour Marine Le Pen et 33% (+2) n'ont pas exprimé d'intention de vote. Autre sondage, le "Rolling" Ifop-Fiducial pour Paris Match, CNews et Sud Radio, Emmanuel Macron (59,5%) gagne un demi-point face à Marine Le Pen (40,5%). Dans ce sondage, 50% des électeurs de Mélenchon comptent voter pour Emmanuel Macron au second tour, 13% comptent voter pour Marine Le Pen et 37% préfèrent s'abstenir, voter blanc/nul ou ne s'expriment pas.

It's becoming easier and easier to understand Mélenchon's position regarding the second round. Great example of political courage by the nº1 opponent of fascism in France! And now that the militants have voted for abstention, I really don't expect him to suddenly find his balls back.

edit: wait what's going on with this Elabe poll? I just checked another source and when you add up all the numbers you still get more than 100%

 

[Oreiller]

i got scared until i realized it's just militants, hopefully it's not indicative of a larger trend in the voterbase.

It's probably not just militants. I managed to vote simply because I subscribed to their newsletter two months ago. I certainly wouldn't call myself a militant tho.

 

[Tranqueris]

I voted Hamon on the first round, but since I don't want to see Le Pen winning I'm relunctantly voting for Macron ... Abstention is not a solution.

 

[Mac_Lane]

It's probably not just militants. I managed to vote simply because I subscribed to their newsletter two months ago. I certainly wouldn't call myself a militant tho.

Well, it's only 250 000 people, so that's far from the 6 million people that did vote Mélenchon in the first round.

 

[Herb Alpert]

So FI's 2/3 in favor of abstention or vote blanc. Hmm.

Guess they want the dirty work to be made by others

Sigh...

 

[sbkodama]

Quote from that article:

"Is Marine Le Pen genuinely a less unpalatable proposition than her father was? Is Emmanuel Macron somehow worse, from a leftwing perspective, than Jacques Chirac was in 2002? If not, why are some leaders of the left today unwilling to support Macron against Le Pen? This is a genuine puzzle to me."

Anyone defending calls for abstention or Mélenchon's stance of "Anyone but Le Pen but not necessarily the only alternative though" should really think hard about this.

And maybe a lot of people should really think hard about why the fn rise since.

 

[Simplet]

23% des électeurs de Jean-Luc Mélenchon au premier tour disent qu'ils voteront pour Marine Le Pen au second, soit une hausse de sept points en une semaine.

7 points in a week! Impressive work fighting fascism Jean-Luc, keep up the good work!

 

[Stumpokapow]

So FI's 2/3 in favor of abstention or vote blanc. Hmm.

Quelle surprise. C'est un choc énorme qu'ils ont décidé de se soumettre au lieu d'être la conscience de la gauche.

 

[G.O.O.]

So FI's 2/3 in favor of abstention or vote blanc. Hmm.

also 240'000 answered on 450'000

not sure what to conclude about the other 210'000 but that's quite a lot

 

[Kuldar]

also 240'000 answered on 450'000

not sure what to conclude about the other 210'000 but that's quite a lot

Maybe that they're hardcore abstentionists.

 

[Funky Papa]

So FI's 2/3 in favor of abstention or vote blanc. Hmm.

Trash.