While we were distracted, Trump's approval ratings fell to a new low.

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Trump has dipped to 38.8% in FiveThirtyEight's polling average, a full percentage point below his previous low. According to FiveThirtyEight's adjusted polling numbers (which account for which way each pollster generally leans), he hasn't scored above 40% (adjusted) in over a week.

Meanwhile, he's dipped under 40% for the first time in RealClearPolitics's polling average, to 39.6%.

I think it's generally understood that once he gets into the low 30s, politicians will be even less willing to work with him. Seems like it'll just be a matter of time. So keep calling your representatives!
 
That graph definitely shows that there is a chance he could have more approval than disapproval in July already, so the world isn't quite unfucked yet.

I wonder what it would take to prompt such a change though.
 
Good. I hope it drops even more when they start losing seats in 2018. If they lose Georgia in June they will jump off the Trump train in droves.
 
Yeah I saw that he'd dropped back down to 37±3 on Gallup yesterday. Will be interesting to see how the week with him being abroad plays out.
 
SiegfriedFM said:
That graph definitely shows that there is a chance he could have more approval than disapproval in July already, so the world isn't quite unfucked yet.

I wonder what it would take to prompt such a change though.
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Not an expert on presidential approval by any means, but my guess from what I know about more general human psychology and sociology would be that once people decide they hate a president, it's probably a whole lot harder to pull them back above that bar.

I would guess that the general trajectory for almost any president's approval ratings is downward, even if they're doing a reasonably good job. Again, not based on any observation of data trends or hard evidence, just from the way people think.
 
Imperfected said:
Not an expert on presidential approval by any means, but my guess from what I know about more general human psychology and sociology would be that once people decide they hate a president, it's probably a whole lot harder to pull them back above that bar.

I would guess that the general trajectory for almost any president's approval ratings is downward, even if they're doing a reasonably good job. Again, not based on any observation of data trends or hard evidence, just from the way people think.
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I think those projections could be based on prior presidents and other politicians (just guessing though without looking further), but if that's the case then there's still the fact Trump is a wholly unprecedented president. His approval could still keep tanking beyond the norm.
 
Imperfected said:
Not an expert on presidential approval by any means, but my guess from what I know about more general human psychology and sociology would be that once people decide they hate a president, it's probably a whole lot harder to pull them back above that bar.

I would guess that the general trajectory for almost any president's approval ratings is downward, even if they're doing a reasonably good job. Again, not based on any observation of data trends or hard evidence, just from the way people think.
Click to expand...

Gallup's tracking has a good historical look back to Truman. Obama faced a steady decline from 2009 until the 2012 election where it popped back up, and then declined again until people realized he couldn't be president again. Which I think makes a pretty good case study since there was no major war or scandal to send polling significantly up or down.
 
SiegfriedFM said:
That graph definitely shows that there is a chance he could have more approval than disapproval in July already, so the world isn't quite unfucked yet.

I wonder what it would take to prompt such a change though.
Click to expand...

It's going to be a gradual thing at this point, because the only ones keeping him there are Republican voters, and even that is steadily decreasing.

RPGCrazied said:
Good. I hope it drops even more when they start losing seats in 2018. If they lose Georgia in June they will jump off the Trump train in droves.
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You should brace yourself, though, because I'm fairly sure the GOP will win that race even if it's going to be tight
 
James Comey will be speaking publically before the Senate.

The shit train isn't stopping just because of an overseas trip; it is only going to get worse
 
I don't know why people want to always bring up the election polls in these discussions to be honest. It's an entirely different type of measuring.
 
Lord Frieza said:
I don't know why people want to always bring up the election polls in these discussions to be honest. It's an entirely different type of measuring.
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Are you referring to me?

If so I didn't compare this poll with the election night coverage. I was responding to the poster who said his/her eye twitched looking at it, and I assumed it was because of the nightmare poll update that looked exactly like this on election night that showed what the odds were for Trump to win as the night progressed. I was only referring to the gulf in between approval and disapproval, as the gulf between Hillary and Trump looked similar on election night. I know that they're not the same.
 
SpaceWolf said:
I just want the guy out of office.

None of this changes anything. What matters is a way to kick him out.
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Its progress.

The more his ratings drop, the less republicans will rally around him unless they want to go down with him. He's a sinking ship that will cause lasting damage and lose them both the midterms and 2020.

In the pile up to take Trump down like he's some cosmic level threat in a comic book, every little bit helps at this point. Its fucking shameful that we got here but we may finally starting to be seeing a way out.
 
WedgeX said:
Gallup's tracking has a good historical look back to Truman. Obama faced a steady decline from 2009 until the 2012 election where it popped back up, and then declined again until people realized he couldn't be president again. Which I think makes a pretty good case study since there was no major war or scandal to send polling significantly up or down.
Click to expand...

Yeah, typically you'd see approval ratings go down in midterms and back up for the reelection. Problem is that Trump was never really all that high to begin with, so there's a question of what his ceiling even is IMO

Anyway, approval ratings move very slowly so 1% shifts every month is actually a pretty sizable change.
 
Moving in the right direction, I hope no massive terrorist attack happens like 9/11 which could cause his popularity to soar.
 
Trump will hit his floor. Except his base is defecting so God only knows where that new floor truly lies or if Trump will be President long enough to find out.
 
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