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[TestOfTide]

Death by a thousand cuts.

It's not about big drop-offs in Trump's approval. It's about solidifying the opposition to Trump while very slowly chipping away at his supporters. So long as the overall negative narrative around Trump continues, his numbers will keep very slowly going down.

For reference, in 2012 Hillary had 56% approval, then the GOP media went for death by a thousand cuts on her until today when 60% of the population has fallen for the anti-Hillary propaganda.

But if you want to see Trump's approval to go down even quicker, then you have to destroy the GOP media machine's grip on voters. Basically, find and release enough dirt on Fox News that advertisers all pull from the channel entirely.

 

[FStubbs]

It's frustrating that it takes huge scandals to drop him just a point or two, but if he just keeps his mouth shut it goes back up.

People love Republicans and conservatives in this country. Once you understand racism and hatred is the default position it sadly makes sense.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Moving in the right direction, I hope no massive terrorist attack happens like 9/11 which could cause his popularity to soar.

I don't think anything could really cause his popularity to soar. He's had a pretty clearly defined ceiling over the past two years or so.

Bush's approval soared in response to 9/11 because he was already reasonably popular for a president. And he was less divisive than Trump to be sure.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Moving in the right direction, I hope no massive terrorist attack happens like 9/11 which could cause his popularity to soar.

Nothing is going to make his popularity soar with Dems and Independents.

 

[Meowster]

Still way too high for me.

 

[Sean C]

Worth remembering, Trump has yet to face a crisis not of his own making, and he's already extremely unpopular.

 

[Dazza]

I don't think anything could really cause his popularity to soar. He's had a pretty clearly defined ceiling over the past two years or so.

Bush's approval soared in response to 9/11 because he was already reasonably popular for a president. And he was less divisive than Trump to be sure.

Nothing is going to make his popularity soar with Dems and Independents.

I really hope you guys are right. I can see Trump wanting to start a war just to boost his ratings

 

[Strike]

Still not low enough.

 

[ascii42]

What is the lowest any president has ever had?

Truman hit 22% on Gallup. That's the lowest on that one.

 

[shiba5]

James Comey will be speaking publically before the Senate.

The shit train isn't stopping just because of an overseas trip; it is only going to get worse

CBO score for Trumpcare 2.0 comes out this week too, I believe.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I really hope you guys are right. I can see Trump wanting to start a war just to boost his ratings

We've already seen him play with this idea with his Syria strikes and it did nothing for his popularity, and all his dick measuring with NK hasn't resulted in any increases either.

 

[SJurgenson]

Can you point out how you figured that out? Good to learn.

The light color parabolic zones projecting into the future show the range of largest probable change. If everything from now starts coming up Trump, his approval numbers (In some of the closest polls tacked 538) could rise above disapproval -- as seen in the two projected ranges overlapping in July.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

It will never reach 50, don't most/all Presidents get there at some point? Trump won't.

some of the data points in that graph is above 50%

how

 

[Bronx-Man]

CBO score for Trumpcare 2.0 comes out this week too, I believe.

That's gonna be a hell of a thing to see.

 

[cakely]

The comparisons to Nixon began ten days ago so this is right on schedule.

Garbage president, garbage approval ratings.

 

[TestOfTide]

Moving in the right direction, I hope no massive terrorist attack happens like 9/11 which could cause his popularity to soar.

The problem with that worry is:

- Bush rose in popularity from 9/11 because his response was in certain aspects objectively good, such as his refusal to make it about hating Muslims.

- Trump's response to the Pulse Shooting has already shown us that Trump doesn't know how to respond to a terrorist attack.

 

[SolarPowered]

I was hoping for something more dramatic like 35ish percent. Hopefully starting next week it goes below 36% and never rises above that again.

 

[ManDudeChild]

What's amazing is that historians will in time be able to agree that Trump was the worst U.S. president of all time.

... well short of someone of Camacho becoming reality... though some might argue we're already there but without the charisma of Terry Crews.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Can you point out how you figured that out? Good to learn.

Look at the graph's projection into the future; you can see that because they have no principled reason to expect things will go up or down (they seem to model a "regression to the mean", which seems to me less likely than a random walk, but whatever), the level of uncertainty increases both moving up and down the further out you go, and around the mid-summer the lower end of the disapprove confidence interval and the upper end of the approval confidence interval cross again. Of course, just as likely as that scenario is the low-30s approval scenario.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

I really hope you guys are right. I can see Trump wanting to start a war just to boost his ratings

I imagine a war could increase his approval ratings with Republicans and right-leaning independents. But that alone wouldn't even get him to 50%, I think.

 

[TheCochese]

Nothing is going to make his popularity soar with Dems and Independents.

He could jump out of the airplane on the way back home.

 

[djplaeskool]

RIP April bump

 

[shamanick]

Time for the FOAB, I guess

 

[Ernest]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

 

[The Artisan]

i remember hearing about him at a graduation ceremony and he was saying he's been treated very unfairly

 

[Laevateinn]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:


I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

Fuck those people. They are irredeemable monsters with no place in society. Treat them like ghosts.

 

[VaultBoy101]

James Comey will be speaking publically before the Senate.

The shit train isn't stopping just because of an overseas trip; it is only going to get worse

I'm as cautiously optimistic as possible right now, but I'm willing to bet that at least a third of the people who still approve of him don't even know who James Comey is.

 

[Eusis]

Nothing is going to make his popularity soar with Dems and Independents.

He'd probably successfully self sabotage too. It worked for GWB because he didn't have as much sheer hatred towards him baked in and he also is actually capable as a public speaker. Trump has hit the ground running as one of the most deplorable people to try to get the office and probably the most deplorable to get the office, and reliably puts his foot in his mouth. At best he'd get a minor boost from those on the fence that'd probably fade away the second he gets back on Twitter.

 

[BlastProcessing]

I'm as cautiously optimistic as possible right now, but I'm willing to bet that at least a third of the people who still approve of him don't even know who James Comey is.

That's fine. It's sad, but it's fine. We only need to chip into 15% to 20% of his base to completely and utterly ruin him as a politician.

 

[Lord Fagan]

By the looks of that graph, it all turned to liquid dogshit with that travel ban.

After that, there was no turning back.

 

[Lord Frieza]

He could jump out of the airplane on the way back home.

I stand corrected, that would probably do jt

 

[ForkNetwork]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

If it possible, it doesnt matter. These people dont deserve you words or your time, use them on something thats actually worth a damn.

 

[astroturfing]

That's still pathetic that over 1/3 approve of that garbage heap of a man.

yeah, i'm honestly still in disbelief that tens of millions voted for this dumb fool. tens of millions... amazing. even 100 000 votes for him is ridiculous imo.

 

[TestOfTide]

I was hoping for something more dramatic like 35ish percent. Hopefully starting next week it goes below 36% and never rises above that again.

Read my first post in this thread. You can expect big sudden drops. What's important is:

1) Trump Opposition solidifies the way Hillary's opposition solidifies

2) VERY SLOWLY chipping away at the undecideds and supporters

3) Fox News continues its downward spiral into a full-on Breitbart network, which will be its downfall. And once Fox goes down, the GOP has nothing.

 

[Jotaka]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

These people are complete nuts, you cannot reason with them... Just say "please don't talk to me, keep a distance from me" and don't just ask to avoid to talk about politics.

 

[Zubz]

What's amazing is that historians will in time be able to agree that Trump was the worst U.S. president of all time.

... well short of someone of Camacho becoming reality... though some might argue we're already there but without the charisma of Terry Crews.

Camacho was a good fit for his people, & made the right choice in appointing the smartest man in the world to help with a problem he acknowledged he couldn't solve. I'd argue Camacho was a decent president, all things considered.

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

These are people that are never going to change after 1 conversation. These are people that are never going to change after hundreds of conversations/GOP policies ruining their life.

Short of a moment of clarity, combined with being isolated from a conservative echo chamber & something that Trump does that compromises their moral code (Which, seeing how it started with calling all Mexicans rapists & included boasts about sexual assault, is a high bar), these individuals are not going to change. And even if those conditions are met, they'll just find a less-bad person to give the same support to.

 

[Brakke]

How are these calculated?

Why do we even have OPs tho? http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tracking-donald-trumps-approval-ratings/

 

[TestOfTide]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

Here's a post I made on PoliGAF that should ease your mind:

I guess I just predict that going the full on conspiracy route is gonna fuck over Fox News.

Like, before before Trump, fox was very deliberate at never EXPLICITLY promoting a conspiracy. It was always carefully coded words. For example they would say that the media was left leaning and biased against republicans and use the term "mainstream media", but they would never outright say that the media was conspiring against them. Or you would have shit like Neil Cavuto's loaded questions as headlines like "Bush: Best President Ever?".

But now they have lost all subtlety to it. Now it is literally just them claiming every dumb conspiracy there is and claiming that anything that disagrees with them is in on the conspiracy.

And I get what some of you are thinking. "Well their base will eat it up." But if Fox News was able to get away with just being exactly like talk radio and breitbart, they would have done that shit from the start. But they didn't because going full-breitbart has too many problems such as:

- Advertisers start wanting to pull when your hosts inevitably start saying REALLY stupid shit
- Turning off moderates and quasi-moderates that may have previously been willing to watch Fox News when the bias was much more subtle and hard to point out
- Making it easier for everyone outside the fanbase to completely dismiss you as a source because you aren't even subtle at what you are doing
- Starting to actually dip in ratings because the vast majority of viewers of news and politics are looking to scratch an anti-trump itch now, not a "I want suck up to what is now technically the American establishment" itch. Yes I just called Trump part of the American Establishment.

I've seen this shit first hand. My mom used to watch Fox News all the damn time. But since she hates Trump, she barely watches the channel at all. She's still fairly conservative, but hilariously going full Breitbart has actually made it much easier for me to loosen that network's grip on her.

And as soon as Fox News does down, the GOP will no longer have an easy way to spread their propaganda. I mean the fact that Fox is going full-on conspiracy theorist already means that Fox will no longer be able to as easily and subtly influence moderates and pseudomoderates.

 

[Kill Your Masters]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

Chances are really slim.

His hardcore base will always stay behind him no matter what. It's like arguing with a flat earther.

 

[foxuzamaki]

I thought he was already at 38%, Jesus thing just doesn't drop enough

 

[TestOfTide]

Chances are really slim.

His hardcore base will always stay behind him no matter what. It's like arguing with a flat earther.

His hardcore base isn't 38% of the country. His hardcore base is more like 20-30% of the country. It's all about getting the ones that KNOW Trump is fucking up, but are too embarrassed to admit it.

 

[Lev]

His ratings should be lower. Perhaps a full repeal of the ACA will drop him into the teens and 20s.

 

[Shaanyboi]

38.8% are still fucking idiots.

 

[kess]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

Tell em President Mnuchin will really drain the swamp

 

[Snwaters]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

I would say what has been said above, but something tells me that this was not written by what we would think of as the Ave Trump voter. The way it's written, makes it sound like it was written by one of those professional trolls.

I highly doubt that was written by your average Fox News viewer.

 

[WedgeX]

I no longer trust numbers.

The numbers in the national polls were damn accurate putting Clinton up by two points. It helps with the large number of national polls, which bring the number closer to the true mean. The problem is that there is nowhere near the same number of individual state polls, which is what really matters due to our electoral college.

 

[EatinOlives]

I just want the guy out of office.

None of this changes anything. What matters is a way to kick him out.

Then don't click on the thread? What do you want people to do, just stop polling approval ratings in their entirety just because you don't like it?

 

[polyh3dron]

CBO score for Trumpcare 2.0 comes out this week too, I believe.

That is going to be glorious.

 

[Lev]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

From what I've seen so far, his supporters either ignore all criticism against him by claiming the sources being fake news, or they are woefully ignorant of what he is doing. The best strategy when talking to his supporters is to choose one topic, such as healthcare or any one of his political scandals, and discuss the facts to see where they truly stand. Talking in generalities doesn't allow for you to easily see their point of view.

Personally, I would love to hear a genuine Trump supporter's explanation of Trump's flip flopping on lies regarding his own scandals. If the Washington Post or New York Times are fake news, then why does Trump in the end confirm himself that their sources on his own scandals are true? Nobody can defend this, not even Trump's WH press team.

 

[Shoeless]

Before you guys get complacent about Trump's lowered approval rating, keep in mind, this is how his supporters still feel about the shitbag:

Spoiler

I'd like suggestions on how to combat this - is it even possible?

I think it's time America owned up to that fact that the separation of church and state failed spectacularly. Religion and politics are the same thing. In the same way that it's a pointless effort to argue logic against faith in religion, arguing fact against hate in politics will get you nowhere, and merely strengthen hate.