UK General Election 2017 |OT2| No Government is better than a bad Government

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Without a public showing that people actually want to remain in the EU now, massively, no politician is going to risk it. Why would they? Brexit still hasn't truly been felt, not really, you go back on it and you open yourself to "It was going to work, you gave up too soon" attacks.

You're dreaming of something that isn't going to happen, not until and if it becomes absolutely clear that Brexit is a disaster.
 
'So does knowing that you live in a marginal constituency that will determine who is prime minister for the Brexit negotiations, does that make you a lot more likely to vote for Theresa May’s Conservative candidate or a little more likely to vote for Theresa May’s Conservative candidate, or are you still unsure, or does it not make a difference?'
Oh boy that's the most convincing argument ever. /s
 
Here's one thing it's helping with. It works as an idiot detector.

Anyone who gets all worked up over Abbott and excuses/ignores Boris - is probably an idiot.
Anyone who gets all worked up over Boris and excuses/ignores Abbott - is probably an idiot.
Anyone who gets all worked up over both of them - is probably a hypocrite.
Anyone who figures that this happens to politicians of all parties when they're hit with questions they're not prepared for is probably kind of right.

I mean doesn't Abbott have a physical condition she's dealing with. Does Boris have one as well? Pathological dumbass?
 
2015 UKIP: 12.6%
2017 LD+SNP+GRN: 12%

EU ref 2 here we come!

Good point. Also, I'm not sure UKIP voters === leave the EU single issue voters. Clearly a lot of those voters issues were around immigration, which is not the same thing. I think you could easily expect to see a significant reduction in UKIP vote this time around if Remain had won the election and then a Cameron government had been able to make use of the extra measures he'd negotiated to address people's concerns on that issue. A narrow Remain win would have put Leaver's issues high on the agenda for the rest of the Parliament and he'd have been working double time to bring those voters back.
 
Here's one thing it's helping with. It works as an idiot detector.

Anyone who gets all worked up over Abbott and excuses/ignores Boris - is probably an idiot.
Anyone who gets all worked up over Boris and excuses/ignores Abbott - is probably an idiot.
Anyone who gets all worked up over both of them - is probably a hypocrite.
Anyone who figures that this happens to politicians of all parties when they're hit with questions they're not prepared for is probably kind of right.

Boris is a workshy, evil twat but he's several leagues above Abbot in terms of intellect, competence and political nous, and I support Labour like they're my football team. They may have both given bad interviews recently but I'm struggling to think of someone on the Tory side who is as completely sackless yet as omnipresent as Abbot. Even IDS has more about him and he's next to pond life.

Edit: Toby Young is the best I can do but he's not an MP let alone a front bencher.
 
I'm hoping young voters stay energized and right the ship back onto a proper direction. Then again they voted for hard brexit Corbyn so I'm not sure they love things like free movement enough. Perhaps once the consequences of losing EU citizenship kicks in, and the anger starts. FPTP seems to be the biggest problem for the Lib Dems. Every hardcore remainer I know voted for Corbyn's Labour anyway. Seems like a 'lesser of 2 evils' situation.

Read this rather interesting Tweet earlier:

https://twitter.com/alaindebotton/status/877653568609800193

Cabinet Minister tells me Conservatives ready to accept EEA with 5 year immigration brake. Will be offered after German elections. Good.

No way to verify this. Wait and see till after German elections then.
 
I'm hoping young voters stay energized and right the ship back onto a proper direction. Then again they voted for hard brexit Corbyn so I'm not sure they love things like free movement enough. Perhaps once the consequences of losing EU citizenship kicks in, and the anger starts. FPTP seems to be the biggest problem for the Lib Dems. Every hardcore remainer I know voted for Corbyn's Labour anyway. Seems like a 'lesser of 2 evils' situation.

Read this rather interesting Tweet earlier:

https://twitter.com/alaindebotton/status/877653568609800193



No way to verify this. Wait and see till after German elections then.

That would be absolutely wonderful.
 
Man that C4 news report is pretty damning. It seems pretty clear cut that they were paying people to canvass in marginal seats on election day, which is criminal according to the law. Is this worse than the election overspending scandal? The fact that there is a much more concrete connection to people's behavior on election day makes me think so.
 
I think Huw makes a good point about the clear pro-Remain parties losing in this election. The conclusion is not necessarily that people change their mind about leaving, but the issue of leaving or remaining is clearly not the top priority for a lot of people. While the leave side is still mobilised under their banner. But seemingly in slightly lower numbers for hard brexit. On the opposite side you have a rather large apathetic mass of "kind of remain" voters. A lot of people just don't care anymore and consider Brexit a done deal.
 
Is he bollocks.

I'm as pro-Remain as they come, but I'm not a single issue voter.

And even if I was, that single issue would be Full Communism Now, and a bunch of Orange Bookers aren't going to advance that very far.

He's correct in describing response by the parties. Nobody voted for the remain party so we aren't going to be remaining or even offered that.
 
Random question -

The Conservative manifesto stated that the Conservatives will increase the non EU spouse visa threshold from its current £18,600 limit to a higher figure and it will increase the International Health Surcharge from £200 annually to £600, but there was no mention of this in the Queen's speech.

Does this mean it's not going to happen? Or it wasn't important enough to go into the speech and it will still go through once the Conservatives get voted in next Thursday?

Going through the the spouse visa process at the moment and it's hell. I feel like I'm being punished for falling in love with someone with the wrong colour passport. I need to know if the Conservatives are going to fuck us harder in the future as we'll need to apply for two more visas if we decide to stay here (assuming we get this initial visa..). If EU immigration ends up like non EU immigration then this country is well and truly screwed.

Cheers.
 
Is he bollocks.

I'm as pro-Remain as they come, but I'm not a single issue voter.

And even if I was, that single issue would be Full Communism Now, and a bunch of Orange Bookers aren't going to advance that very far.

How could you be pro-eu if you want full communism?

The mind boggles when it comes to the hard left.
 
Random question -

The Conservative manifesto stated that the Conservatives will increase the non EU spouse visa threshold from its current £18,600 limit to a higher figure and it will increase the International Health Surcharge from £200 annually to £600, but there was no mention of this in the Queen's speech.

Does this mean it's not going to happen? Or it wasn't important enough to go into the speech and it will still go through once the Conservatives get voted in next Thursday?

Going through the the spouse visa process at the moment and it's hell. I feel like I'm being punished for falling in love with someone with the wrong colour passport. I need to know if the Conservatives are going to fuck us harder in the future as we'll need to apply for two more visas if we decide to stay here (assuming we get this initial visa..). If EU immigration ends up like non EU immigration then this country is well and truly screwed.

Cheers.

Sadly there's absolutely no certainty on anything related to UK immigration law for the foreseeable future, though it is likely that the immigration bills will be very very contentious in parliament and likely to attract govt defeats given the hung parliament. A lot of MPs dislike the rules on spouse earning thresholds.
 
Sadly there's absolutely no certainty on anything related to UK immigration law for the foreseeable future, though it is likely that the immigration bills will be very very contentious in parliament and likely to attract govt defeats given the hung parliament. A lot of MPs dislike the rules on spouse earning thresholds.

Cool, thanks for the reply.

I consider myself lucky because I earn over the threshold and am able to afford the nearly £2.5k visa application fee. My heart goes out to those who aren't able to meet it and aren't able to afford the fees.

It's such a cruel and unfair system wrought with unnecessary complexities and hidden costs. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy.
 
I think Huw makes a good point about the clear pro-Remain parties losing in this election. The conclusion is not necessarily that people change their mind about leaving, but the issue of leaving or remaining is clearly not the top priority for a lot of people. While the leave side is still mobilised under their banner. But seemingly in slightly lower numbers for hard brexit. On the opposite side you have a rather large apathetic mass of "kind of remain" voters. A lot of people just don't care anymore and consider Brexit a done deal.

I think it's more a matter of remain voters having no real option. Vote for anyone but Labour and you're giving May power essentially and she's the last one I want organizing this crap.
 
I'm hoping young voters stay energized and right the ship back onto a proper direction. Then again they voted for hard brexit Corbyn so I'm not sure they love things like free movement enough. Perhaps once the consequences of losing EU citizenship kicks in, and the anger starts. FPTP seems to be the biggest problem for the Lib Dems. Every hardcore remainer I know voted for Corbyn's Labour anyway. Seems like a 'lesser of 2 evils' situation.

Read this rather interesting Tweet earlier:

https://twitter.com/alaindebotton/status/877653568609800193



No way to verify this. Wait and see till after German elections then.


EEA would be perfect for the EU. They'd get all the benefits of retaining the UK in the single market, and all the benefits of not having us fucking up the EU by having a say
 
EEA would be perfect for the EU. They'd get all the benefits of retaining the UK in the single market, and all the benefits of not having us fucking up the EU by having a say

So the Norway model might actually be on the table? Huh.

Still, if it's possible and the EU are actually willing, it may be one of the better options. Feels like it would actually allow Britain to see the effects of losing some of the benefits of being an EU member, and thus in ten or twenty years time, weigh up how much it really wants to be outside of the club.

It's a dream, I know.
 
EEA would be perfect for the EU. They'd get all the benefits of retaining the UK in the single market, and all the benefits of not having us fucking up the EU by having a say

Would we still be under EU law etc.?

Basically what we have now with no perks and zero say whatsoever on any EU matters going forward.

Well, what was the fucking point. LOL. I would happy with that compromise but jeez, what a waste of time and we would actually give up more. Wow, just wow. You might as well just cancel Brexit then, that's what makes me think it's not true.
 
So the Norway model might actually be on the table? Huh.

Still, if it's possible and the EU are actually willing, it may be one of the better options. Feels like it would actually allow Britain to see the effects of losing some of the benefits of being an EU member, and thus in ten or twenty years time, weigh up how much it really wants to be outside of the club.

It's a dream, I know.

Norway model would be perfect for the EU. It's just that britain has to accept freedom of movement for it.


It really all boils down to freedom of movement, isn't it?
 
I'm hoping young voters stay energized and right the ship back onto a proper direction. Then again they voted for hard brexit Corbyn so I'm not sure they love things like free movement enough. Perhaps once the consequences of losing EU citizenship kicks in, and the anger starts. FPTP seems to be the biggest problem for the Lib Dems. Every hardcore remainer I know voted for Corbyn's Labour anyway. Seems like a 'lesser of 2 evils' situation.

Read this rather interesting Tweet earlier:

https://twitter.com/alaindebotton/status/877653568609800193



No way to verify this. Wait and see till after German elections then.


I don't see how this works out with the 5 year brake on immigration (unless the break is just for show and actually meaningless).
 
I'm hoping young voters stay energized and right the ship back onto a proper direction. Then again they voted for hard brexit Corbyn so I'm not sure they love things like free movement enough. Perhaps once the consequences of losing EU citizenship kicks in, and the anger starts. FPTP seems to be the biggest problem for the Lib Dems. Every hardcore remainer I know voted for Corbyn's Labour anyway. Seems like a 'lesser of 2 evils' situation.

Read this rather interesting Tweet earlier:

https://twitter.com/alaindebotton/status/877653568609800193



No way to verify this. Wait and see till after German elections then.

Best solution.
 
Norway deal with a 5 year bullshit immigration limit within EU to UK that realistically will probably be extremely loosely enforced just to show off?
Yeah I can live with that, as a non UK citizen, that sounds like just about the best possible deal for the EU outside of Norway style with with free movement.

For the UK it would be almost assuredly the best possible deal within the realm of possibility, aka a worse deal than what they have now, but mostly life as usual.
 
I'm hoping young voters stay energized and right the ship back onto a proper direction. Then again they voted for hard brexit Corbyn so I'm not sure they love things like free movement enough. Perhaps once the consequences of losing EU citizenship kicks in, and the anger starts. FPTP seems to be the biggest problem for the Lib Dems. Every hardcore remainer I know voted for Corbyn's Labour anyway. Seems like a 'lesser of 2 evils' situation.

Read this rather interesting Tweet earlier:

https://twitter.com/alaindebotton/status/877653568609800193



No way to verify this. Wait and see till after German elections then.
Not sure what german elections have to do with it but i'll take it
 
Would we still be under EU law etc.?

From the eea website

4. What is included in the EEA Agreement?
The EEA Agreement provides for the inclusion of EU legislation in all policy areas of the Single Market. This covers the four freedoms, i.e. the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital, as well as competition and state aid rules, but also the following horizontal policies: consumer protection, company law, environment, social policy, statistics. In addition, the EEA Agreement provides for cooperation in several flanking policies such as research and technological development, education, training and youth, employment, tourism, culture, civil protection, enterprise, entrepreneurship and small and medium-sized enterprises. The EEA Agreement guarantees equal rights and obligations within the Single Market for citizens and economic operators in the EEA. Through Article 6 of the EEA Agreement, the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union is also of relevance to the EEA Agreement, as the provisions of the EEA Agreement shall be interpreted in conformity with the relevant rulings of the Court given prior to the date of signature (i.e. 2 May 1992).
5. What is not covered by the EEA Agreement?
The EEA Agreement does not cover the following EU policies: common agriculture and fisheries policies (although the EEA Agreement contains provisions on trade in agricultural and fish products); customs union; common trade policy; common foreign and security policy; justice and home affairs (the EEA EFTA States are however part of the Schengen area); direct and indirect taxation; or economic and monetary union.
12. What is EEA legislation?
The EEA Agreement is based on the primary legislation of the EU (Treaty of Rome) at the time of the EEA Agreement's entry into force, and on secondary legislation (EEA-relevant regulations, directives, decisions and certain non-binding instruments). Hence, a large part of the EEA Agreement is identical to the relevant parts governing the four freedoms as laid down in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. A central feature of the EEA Agreement is its dynamic aspect; the common rules of the EEA Agreement are updated continuously with new EU legislation.
The legal texts of EEA Agreement consist of 129 articles, 22 annexes, 49 protocols and a final act. The annexes list the EU acts applicable to the EEA, including adaptations. Some of the protocols include provisions on specific areas such as rules on the origin of goods, transition periods for the EEA EFTA States in certain fields and simplified customs procedures. Protocol 1 contains horizontal adaptations, which apply to all acts referred to in the annexes to the EEA Agreement. Protocol 31 provides the basis for cooperation outside the four freedoms, and on that basis the EEA EFTA States contribute financially to and participate in various EU programmes. Finally, on the basis of Protocol 35, the EEA EFTA States have undertaken to introduce in their national legal order, if necessary, a statutory provision to the effect that EEA rules prevail in the case of a conflict with other statutory provisions.
So yeah, they will have to follow a good amount of laws plus the agriculture and fishery policies would also be part of those if you want eu-free market for them.
 
I think Huw makes a good point about the clear pro-Remain parties losing in this election. The conclusion is not necessarily that people change their mind about leaving, but the issue of leaving or remaining is clearly not the top priority for a lot of people. While the leave side is still mobilised under their banner. But seemingly in slightly lower numbers for hard brexit. On the opposite side you have a rather large apathetic mass of "kind of remain" voters. A lot of people just don't care anymore and consider Brexit a done deal.

It would never have been possible for them to win this election. No chance in hell would people vote for remain/leave in numbers that beat FTTP.

It doesn't help that the main pro remain party completely betrayed all their voter base by entering a coallition with the Tory party and ignoring everything they campaigned for.
 
Ah, thanks for clarifying.

I amended it slightly because that isn't strictly true. Mainly it's the media aren't supposed to report campaigning/be seen to influence what people do on the day. I think that's the rule anyway. Parties can and do campaign, it's what gets the Labour vote out, dozens of people in each constituency knocking on every door they know of.
 
I amended it slightly because that isn't strictly true. Mainly it's the media aren't supposed to report campaigning/be seen to influence what people do on the day. I think that's the rule anyway. Parties can and do campaign, it's what gets the Labour vote out, dozens of people in each constituency knocking on every door they know of.

Is that broadcast media only?
 
Oh god as a brit in Norway I imagine the media sniffing around what it's like for me in Norway. The answer is fucking awesome. Don't do a hard brexit. (Getting my Norwegian citizenship come what may regardless)
 
No. UKIP imploded

UKIP was finished after the referendum and A50 was signed, the job was done in their eyes. Those UKIP voters slipped back to Labour and Conservative

If UK ends up staying in the EU then UKIP will rise back up. I don't think anyone here or in the EU should looking at UKIP collapse and think this means UK has changed it's mind.

Yougov polls says 70% should go ahead and respect the referendum. Mood is for current negotiating stance or hard brexit. Soft brexit is pretty low.

Would we still be under EU law etc.?

Basically what we have now with no perks and zero say whatsoever on any EU matters going forward.

Well, what was the fucking point. LOL. I would happy with that compromise but jeez, what a waste of time and we would actually give up more. Wow, just wow. You might as well just cancel Brexit then, that's what makes me think it's not true.

There would be a plus point in the UK being allowed to make trade deals.

Ultimately and unfortunately for the remain side, the way the EU is set up, leave is pretty much leave. Being like Norway still means you pay 95% of the fee, which whether it's £220m per week or £350m before rebate, it was a huge point of leave campaign and in 2020 the rebate was up for renewal with other countries pushing for no rebate for UK. You have no say in EEA, you get trade deals and have to keep FoM and be subject to EU laws. Leaving but staying in the customs union means you can't do trade deals. So really you either leave or you don't, the other options mean you might as well stay a full member as EU keep saying they won't allow cherry picking. It's clear FoM, paying around 10 billion a year in the EU and doing trade outside of the EU were important parts of the campaign.

Norway type deal would be a good transition deal if the UK is to honour the referendum later or some other custom transitional deal. Trade deals could be set up before fully leaving.

I'm looking at this from a neutral standpoint. I voted remain
 
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