UK General Election 2017 |OT2| No Government is better than a bad Government

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The problem with Corbyn and the single market is that he and McDonnell seem pretty clear they want out. Can his backbenchers - in particular his centrist backbenchers who he seriously dislikes like Benn, Umunna and Kendall - really manage to change his mind?

But what happens if they fail to? It's not enough by itself to cause a split or defections, and both would mean having to hold heavily Labour seats after having stabbed Corbyn in the back. It's suicide.

Reminder that they tried to oust Corbyn twice already, when he was far less popular with the public at large. It would require blinkers bigger than Theresa Mays to try again.

Tomorrows probable headline from the radical centre:
DDG5WbRXkAER8Js.jpg
 
Labour have repeatedly said they want access to the Single Market. Corbyn doesn't want to leave it.
It really has gone from a triangle ladder match to a two horse race between the Tories and Labour.

The DUP, LDs and UKIP are inconsequential at this point and it's just a race to see who is able to turn public opinion back to remain en masse first between those two.

Corbyn is an easier opportunist in this regard as he is surging with the youth. May has the unenviable task of being Theresa May - embattled Prime Minister who has to eat shit to survive.
 
Reminder that they tried to oust Corbyn twice already, when he was far less popular with the public at large. It would require blinkers bigger than Theresa Mays to try again.

Yeah, which is why I didn't suggest they'd try ousting him - it's either grumble or the nuclear option.
 
The Annual Yorkshire Ferret Racing Festival is legit my favourite event of the year.
 
It really has gone from a triangle ladder match to a two horse race between the Tories and Labour.

The DUP, LDs and UKIP are inconsequential at this point and it's just a race to see who is able to turn public opinion back to remain en masse first between those two.

Corbyn is an easier opportunist in this regard as he is surging with the youth. May has the unenviable task of being Theresa May - embattled Prime Minister who has to eat shit to survive.

To be fair, the Lib Dems were irrelevant before the election as well.
 
Reminder that they tried to oust Corbyn twice already, when he was far less popular with the public at large. It would require blinkers bigger than Theresa Mays to try again.

Tomorrows probable headline from the radical centre:
DDG5WbRXkAER8Js.jpg

I was at Tractor Fest in Ripon the other week, I wonder how that'd go.
 
Everyone has "access" to the single market - but that's very different from being a member of it.

Corbyn and McDonnell do not to be *members* of the single market. They want the best possible access, but not to be members.

This is why you have MPs like Umunna, Benn and Kendall agitating for membership.

They do want to be members. But they also want the single market. Either they are being wilfully obtuse or it is them trying to balance between accepting Brexit and appealing to remainers. They can easily compromise and say they'd reluctantly accept freedom of movement in exchange for market access. Their base is better primed to accept it, and it will be perceived as less damaging if seen to be an earnest compromise in the national interest rather than an ideological crusade to leave the EU at all cost.
 
You know it's good that sometimes we get moments where within our political shitshow of Brexit and other things we can still be reminded that being British is kinda nice.

Ferret racing, how marvellous.
 
Everyone has "access" to the single market - but that's very different from being a member of it.

Corbyn and McDonnell do not to be *members* of the single market. They want the best possible access, but not to be members.

This is why you have MPs like Umunna, Benn and Kendall agitating for membership.

As you well know Huw, being a member of the single market means no control over EU immigration (and no ability to do separate trade deals). Which is why, in the face of the referendum vote, May and Corbyn can't be seen to be approaching that route, as it's basically just being in the EU by another name.

But a model more similar to Switzerland, with a free trade agreement with the EU single market (for most industries), is ultimately going to be their way forward.

That's the reality, as much as I'm hoping dearly that Brexit crashes and we remain in the EU as we are now.
 
What's amazing is that that is bogus - you can control EU migration inside the single market. (Germany, for example, does so, and trying to open up access for UK professionals working in Germany was something Cable was involved in doing in government).

You also get to abandon the CAP and CFP outside of the EU, which I'd wager would make certain farmers and fishermen VERY happy.

It's by far the least bad option.
 
As you well know Huw, being a member of the single market means no control over EU immigration (and no ability to do separate trade deals). Which is why, in the face of the referendum vote, May and Corbyn can't be seen to be approaching that route, as it's basically just being in the EU by another name.

But a model more similar to Switzerland, with a free trade agreement with the EU single market (for most industries), is ultimately going to be their way forward.

That's the reality, as much as I'm hoping dearly that Brexit crashes and we remain in the EU as we are now.

Switzerland accepts free movement of labour to get the trade deals that they have got. And it took a long time to negotiate.
 
The problem with Corbyn and the single market is that he and McDonnell seem pretty clear they want out. Can his backbenchers - in particular his centrist backbenchers who he seriously dislikes like Benn, Umunna and Kendall - really manage to change his mind?

But what happens if they fail to? It's not enough by itself to cause a split or defections, and both would mean having to hold heavily Labour seats after having stabbed Corbyn in the back. It's suicide.

But the creation of the SDP was probably viewed as suicidal at the time...

BTW, on the idea that May will soften her approach - Cash, Redwood, Patel and other notorious eurosceptics (often in entirely safe seats) would cheerily bring down the house if she backs off from a hard Brexit. If she wants to do that, she needs to win a general election with enough of a majority to ignore their votes. That was probably the reason she called the GE. It's why I think a second election this year is likely.
If May actually calls for another general election this year it will backfire on her again. People in the UK probably don't want to deal with another election.
 
If May actually calls for another general election this year it will backfire on her again. People in the UK probably don't want to deal with another election.

She will not be PM when another GE is called.

The core issue of this parliament is this: does May have the numbers to pass the repeal bill and the Brexit legislation.

The passing of the Queen's Speech is a fun sideshow compared to that.

Of course Corbyn could just make all the Brexit votes a free vote like A50 then tell his peers not to block it.

If you assume the Brexit legislation votes are de-facto confidence votes May will resign if she loses any of them. I'd bet in that case a new PM would have to go to the country.
 
She will not be PM when another GE is called.

The core issue of this parliament is this: does May have the numbers to pass the repeal bill and the Brexit legislation.

The passing of the Queen's Speech is a fun sideshow compared to that.

Of course Corbyn could just make all the Brexit votes a free vote like A50 then tell his peers not to block it.

If you assume the Brexit legislation votes are de-facto confidence votes May will resign if she loses any of them. I'd bet in that case a new PM would have to go to the country.

A new PM will still face the same problem. If the DUP-Conservative agreement naturally falls apart people won't complain as much about another election. If the new PM does what May did the day she called an election it will likely backfire again.
 
The only way we'll stop Brexit is through another referendum so it looks like the general populations choice again. No MP or party will make the choice to stop it through fear of a backlash.

I didn't think it was likely, but I'm starting to feel like tides are turning and we might get another vote on the final deal, with the wording of the question more favourable to the remian side.
 
I am now more than ever convinced that no hard brexit will happen.
Which is good.

May's statement about EU citizens is incredibly vague and I am glad the EU isn't taking any of the Brexiteers' shit. Guarantee rights for all and every EU citizen in the UK & their families. This 5 year naturalisation crap, is vague as hell. I know it's a fucking nightmare to just get your residence certificate because they put all sorts of hurdles inside of an 85 page document about something EU citizens have an automatic right to.

Put that pressure on the Tories, my ELECTED EU leaders. You will have to accept the 4 freedoms in their entirety.
 
I don't think cancelling the apocalypse Brexit would hurt Labour all that much, if at all.

The youth are overwhelmingly against it in the first place, and it's been dawning on people for a while now that the entire Leave campaign was predicated on lies upon lies.

A "jobs focused" Brexit policy gives Labour the wiggle room to back out or present another referendum if necessary. Corbyn has the credibility to sell either. I think the only question is if he wants to.
 
Reminder that they tried to oust Corbyn twice already, when he was far less popular with the public at large. It would require blinkers bigger than Theresa Mays to try again.

Tomorrows probable headline from the radical centre:
DDG5WbRXkAER8Js.jpg
Lol

Freedland to be fair admitted he was wrong after the election. Of course it had huge caveats but it's something.
 
the worst "journalist" the guardian hires is Nick Cohen by far. I hope he heeds his own advice and gives up on politics because he's a rubbish pundit.
 
Switzerland accepts free movement of labour to get the trade deals that they have got. And it took a long time to negotiate.
Yup. Every time they make noise about changing that, they back down quite swiftly once reality hits them in the face.
Another interesting tidbit about Switzerland, they voted for a cap of the freedom of movement in a referendum in 2014. EU responded that doing so would mean getting out of their agreement. When the government in charge of changing the laws came to be, they decided it was better not to do exactly that and they just changed the law a bit after two years so that they were not kicked at the end of 2016 or so.
And that is in a country were direct democracy is more common.
 
Another interesting tidbit about Switzerland, they voted for a cap of the freedom of movement in a referendum in 2014. EU responded that doing so would mean getting out of their agreement. When the government in charge of changing the laws came to be, they decided it was better not to do exactly that and they just changed the law a bit after two years so that they were not kicked at the end of 2016 or so.
And that is in a country were direct democracy is more common.

Ha, a stupid referendum that lets a populist result people don't really understand almost ruin a country's economy, who would do a thing like that.
 
Reminder that they tried to oust Corbyn twice already, when he was far less popular with the public at large. It would require blinkers bigger than Theresa Mays to try again.

Tomorrows probable headline from the radical centre:
DDG5WbRXkAER8Js.jpg
Haha. Turns out that was close, the angle seems to be "Glastonbury costs money to go to, that's not very socialist!!! Middle class people can't be socialists!" Fucking centrist columnists with their boring pointless whataboutery.
 
Haha. Turns out that was close, the angle seems to be "Glastonbury costs money to go to, that's not very socialist!!! Middle class people can't be socialists!" Fucking centrist columnists with their boring pointless whataboutery.

In the Spectator, not the Guardian, asfaik. Very different, despite this lazy 'centrist' talk. The Guardian EMBODIES middle class socialism lite after all.
 
In the Spectator, not the Guardian, asfaik. Very different, despite this lazy 'centrist' talk. The Guardian EMBODIES middle class socialism lite after all.

I've seen a couple of the definitely-not-bitter Guardian writers tweet it today. Nice to see them embrace the world of "but how can you be against austerity when you've bought a nice coffee".
 
I've seen a couple of the definitely-not-bitter Guardian writers tweet it today. Nice to see them embrace the world of "but how can you be against austerity when you've bought a nice coffee".

New Statesman too. That combined with Paul Mason's performance at the Progress conference where he has embittered Blairites literally hissing at him means I've been feasting on centrist misery for the last 24 hours. Wonderful stuff

1QqFYKc.jpg


God, just look at the looks on their faces. Magnificent
 
I've seen a couple of the definitely-not-bitter Guardian writers tweet it today. Nice to see them embrace the world of "but how can you be against austerity when you've bought a nice coffee".

Wasn't that Louise Mensch's boring argument on Have I Got News For You way back when?
 
In the Spectator, not the Guardian, asfaik. Very different, despite this lazy 'centrist' talk. The Guardian EMBODIES middle class socialism lite after all.

I don't like critiquing someone's political beliefs on the grounds of their upbringing. I know we're pretty fucked as a country right now, but there is still social mobility. I was raised by a single mother on welfare, one of three children, grew up in a council house, free school meals were sometimes the only meal of the day for me.

But now I'm 22, I've worked various jobs for 8 years, I have a degree from a redbrick university and I'm about to start a job that will make me, I suppose, economically 'middle class', or a yuppie, or whatever you want to call it. My political beliefs, my way of viewing the world, however, will always pertain to my working class roots. And just because I'm educated and have worked to make something better of myself, it doesn't make me a champagne socialist. On that same note, there are friends from my childhood who are still in economic shit and they've gone Tory, or even UKIP. Whilst I have friends from university who come from very wealthy backgrounds, but they voted Labour in the election.

We've got to stop bickering about labels over who deserves to call themselves socialists or not: whether you're living paycheque to paycheque in a high rise, or you're earning decent money in the city, as long as you're in support of politics that aspire to make all our lives better, you have my respect.
 
Wanting to help others even though you're in a higher income bracket and more privileged isn't hypocritical, it's moral. I don't like this implication that the only reason people vote is their own self-interest.
 
I don't think cancelling the apocalypse Brexit would hurt Labour all that much, if at all.

The youth are overwhelmingly against it in the first place, and it's been dawning on people for a while now that the entire Leave campaign was predicated on lies upon lies.

A "jobs focused" Brexit policy gives Labour the wiggle room to back out or present another referendum if necessary. Corbyn has the credibility to sell either. I think the only question is if he wants to.

It would cost them a hell of a lot of votes from middle aged working class people who voted for leave, unfortunately.
 
It would cost them a hell of a lot of votes from middle aged working class people who voted for leave, unfortunately.

This was one of Labour's conundrums at the last election and they were able to chart their course through it quite well by ignoring the point.

The idea that high command has right now is probably to let Labour MPs do what they want vis-a-vis Brexit. No sense annoying either side of the divide.
 
On Leave Campaigners distancing themselves:

You will see that a lot as we get closer and closer to B-Day. Lots of Leavers deciding a holiday in Florida is in order.
 
Eurosceptic MPs 'particularly unbalanced', says former Vote Leave campaign boss

Pot. Kettle. Another prominent 'mastermind' of the Leave campaign this week (Gisela Stewart being the first) slowly backing away from the shitstorm they created, Homer Simpson hedge style.

That's hardly surprising. Cummings was Gove's chief of staff during his time as the Minister for Education, and was instrumental in getting Gove and Johnson to be the main faces of the Leave campaign. If it wasn't for that, then the likes of Bill Cash, John Redwood and Nigel Farage would have been the main driving forces, and with all their political baggage.
 
Haha. Turns out that was close, the angle seems to be "Glastonbury costs money to go to, that's not very socialist!!! Middle class people can't be socialists!" Fucking centrist columnists with their boring pointless whataboutery.

"Middle class people can't be socialists!"

Errr...
vladimir-lenin-9379007-1-402.jpg
 
Cabinet minister David Davis has signalled he is willing to do a deal with Brussels over the European Court of Justice's influence in the UK after Brexit.

He said the UK would consider setting up a new arbitration body that would include European officials to rule in future trade disputes.

The Brexit Secretary was adamant that it would not mean the ECJ itself continuing to have a role, something Theresa May has made a red-line in her approach.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...pean-court-of-justice-influence-a7807076.html

Don't call it ECJ though
 
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