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[brian577]

There is no way this doesn't lead to something. How many will be dead by the end of the week...

 

[Maiden Voyage]

I pointed out that this shit has happened before and those running around in a panic need to calm down. Jesus!



Of course we knew, it was always headed for the sea as NK has literally done this before on multiple occasions. Kim isn't going to attack the least populated island of Japan as a prelude to war.

Unless you had information the rest of us did not, you did not know it's path.

 

[SDCowboy]

Pretty much like the point flew over you.

The point didn't fly over me.

 

[Maintenance]

Apparently it isn't right and normal for people to be scared and irrational because of a missile flying over their country but everytime the american president makes some dumb statement we have 90+ page threads on how it's going to change world society from now on and how dangerous he could be.

I personally don't get that line of thinking. Even if NK has done this before, this can legitimately be a cause of concern for people. It's a missile flying over populated land.

"Not where I live, why should I care? Calm down" garbage, while Trump sneezes and "OH MY GOD HE'S GETTING IMPEACHED".

 

[boiled goose]

No, but it's inevitable.

Delaying the inevitable simply raises the casualty counts for when it really does happen.

So you got two options: Just do nothing and wait for North Korea to strike and kill first -OR- strike now, take out as many launchers and silos as you can as quickly as you can and hope you can limit the casualties.

In fact, when it comes to the egos of madmen, doing nothing in response to their threats and displays of strength only emboldens them to be more threatening.

Prove it's inevitable.
I'm not willing to murder 10 million people on your fucking feelings

And prove that delaying raises casualties

 

[Haines]

Can you imagine if it actually hit something, even if not on purpose?

Theres no way this doesnt get a response.

 

[Monkeyball]

Apparently it isn't right and normal for people to be scared and irrational because of a missile flying over their country but everytime the american president makes some dumb statement we have 90+ page threads on how it's going to change world society from now on and how dangerous he could be.

I personally don't get that line of thinking. Even if NK has done this before, this can legitimately be a cause of concern for people. It's a missile flying over populated land.

On GAF everytime Kim farts people poop their pants and predict WW3. Thats probably why.

 

[Stop It]

"wars have started over less"

Yet North Korea has done worse before and here we are.

The thing is, you usually go to war when you feel confident about your chances of winning. Such notion is thoroughly incompatible with going to war against a nuclear power. Which again, explains how we got here.

The nuclear bit isn't the key reason why NK can get away with this though.

They have enough regular artillery pointed at Seoul to wipe them out at a moment's notice and have done for decades. Going nuclear just makes them a potentially global than a regional threat.

It has been and always will be an impossible situation to manage when one side is a country led by an oppressive personality cult propped up by a country that frankly needs the buffer between them and US allies from surrounding their eastern flank.

The problem with ramping up the escalation is of course the possibility of something happening that sets off a chain reaction. Imagine if that missile fell on Japanese land. What then?

Diplomacy can still work but it needs to start by saying that this frankly needs to stop, right now.

 

[KHarvey16]

So what happens when NK eventually kill people? Is a response viable then?

Of course. But that's unlikely to ever happen.

Maintain? NK is dying slowly. He isn't on a good path now. Crazy people will take as many with them as they can.

The narrative of him being an irrational crazy person isn't really accurate. He acts pretty rationally to maintain what he has. He's a brutal murderer, but he has goals and none of them include being killed.

There's plenty of reporting being done on what the options are and why, and also on NKs leadership.

 

[Wet Bloodfart]

There is no way this doesn't lead to something. How many will be dead by the end of the week...

oh come the fuck on

 

[ponpo]

Of course. But that's unlikely to ever happen.

How is it unlikely, it's already happened.

 

[Xyrmellon]

THEY HAVE KILLED PEOPLE!!

Several times!

Was about to post this, and we did nothing except condemn. I will agree that current administrations in U.S. and Japan have had about enough and are much more willing to respond.

 

[5taquitos]

Everytime I read stuff like this I remember this quote from Machiavelli:

"The Romans never allowed a trouble spot to remain simply to avoid going to war over it, because they knew that wars don't just go away, they are only postponed to someone else's advantage. Therefore, they made war with Philip and Antiochus in Greece, in order not to have to fight them in Italy... They never went by that saying which you constantly hear from the wiseacres of our day, that time heals all things. They trusted rather their own character and prudence — knowing perfectly well that time contains the seeds of all things, good as well as bad."

Definitely a man known for his prudence.

 

[Giganteus]

Sorry but they have zero means of defense against anyone if they attack first. Their generals aren't stupid. It's provocation to get themselves in the news again.

Has NK officially said anything about the missile yet?

It's not to get into the news. This was an important test for NK.

 

[KingSnake]

Fire missiles in NK's general direction as a test.

And have them land in China or Russia? Yeah, that could work. /s

 

[Byakuya769]

How are Japanese or Sourh Korean posters reacting? Is it mainly us Westerners ready to accept Seoul getting hammered?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

This is a massive escalation from NK.

Firing missiles offshore is dickwaving, firing a missile which passes over another country is the sort of thing that starts wars.

If this is met with nothing stronger than harsh words and increased sanctions then NK will be emboldened further, and that will lead to a true catastrophe sooner or later. This aggressive act demands a defensive retaliation.

This happened 20 years ago. He's trying to show us he has an ICBM. These continually show that. They're also designed to undermine the US's commitment to Japan.

Its not an attempt to start a war. Its, in Kim's mind, the only way to prevent one. He feels a US strike is inevitable. So he wants to make it impossible.

I'm not sure what North Korea's end game is here. I mean, does Kim Jong Un actually think he can win this?

No. Its an attempt to say the US can't win without its own citizens and military bases taking unacceptable losses. He knows he would lose and die in any nuclear attack.

 

[MadeULook]

Seems like China doesn't have any reason to do anything about this

If the regime falls do you have any idea how many refugees would be pouring into China? On top of that, the most likely aftermath senerio is SK and US starting developing what's left of NK and eventually unite them again. Which would leave a pro US country at China's doorstep.

 

[MIMIC]

I assumed it was on the outer edges, but this was straight across Hokkaido.

That’s crazy.

WTF. That's a lot of fucking land to be flying missiles over. KJU might be crazier than Trump

 

[zelas]

Yeah my bad, continue to let nk artillery sk, torpedo ships, launch monthly missiles near / over countries.

Even if a missile lands, the situation will still be sensitive, nothing should be done then either.

I knew it. You aren't afraid of something escalating. You're itching for it.

 

[Jintor]

fuck

 

[ExVicis]

Hell they even said they’d support NK if the US attacks first

Well yeah they kind of have to, the U.S. attacking first is a big deal.

On the flipside, if North Korea did something they said they wouldn't support them at all.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I think we're probably instigating this reaction with (unreported) mobilization and threats on our part.

 

[danm999]

Everytime I read stuff like this I remember this quote from Machiavelli:

"The Romans never allowed a trouble spot to remain simply to avoid going to war over it, because they knew that wars don't just go away, they are only postponed to someone else's advantage. Therefore, they made war with Philip and Antiochus in Greece, in order not to have to fight them in Italy... They never went by that saying which you constantly hear from the wiseacres of our day, that time heals all things. They trusted rather their own character and prudence — knowing perfectly well that time contains the seeds of all things, good as well as bad."

The calculus on this has changed a little bit since the invention of nuclear weapons.

 

[Maiden Voyage]

Of course. But that's unlikely to ever happen.



The narrative of him being an irrational crazy person isn't really accurate. He acts pretty rationally to maintain what he has. He's a brutal murderer, but he has goals and none of them include being killed.

There's plenty of reporting being done on what the options are and why, and also on NKs leadership.

How does flying a missile over Japan maintain what he has? Do you really think there won't be consequences for this?

 

[Relix]

I am in the boat that think it's time to attack NK. Sadly, Trump is the CIC... which doesn't bode for anything positive just dumb actions.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Everytime I read stuff like this I remember this quote from Machiavelli:

"The Romans never allowed a trouble spot to remain simply to avoid going to war over it, because they knew that wars don't just go away, they are only postponed to someone else's advantage. Therefore, they made war with Philip and Antiochus in Greece, in order not to have to fight them in Italy... They never went by that saying which you constantly hear from the wiseacres of our day, that time heals all things. They trusted rather their own character and prudence — knowing perfectly well that time contains the seeds of all things, good as well as bad."

we're talking about nuclear war and deterrence. not Machiavelli's sucking up to the medici

I am in the boat that think it's time to attack NK. Sadly, Trump is the CIC... which doesn't bode for anything positive just dumb actions.

They have an above 0% chance of nuking a US city.

We can't attack without a nuclear war.

 

[4Tran]

There has to be military strikes against North Korean launchers.

You can't just let a madman fire off rockets in the "general direction" of populated countries.

Preemptive/First Strike threshold has already been passed to be honest. Any response now would be considered reactionary and defensive in nature.

There is no such thing as "military strikes against North Korean launchers". There is only either Korean War 2.0 or the status quo. A limited strike will lead to a full on war just as surely as a full invasion would.

"wars have started over less"

Yet North Korea has done worse before and here we are.

The thing is, you usually go to war when you feel confident about your chances of winning. Such notion is thoroughly incompatible with going to war against a nuclear power. Which again, explains how we got here.

The usual equation is whether the costs incurred by fighting an all-out war is worth the price of relieving the status quo. This decision is ultimately up to South Korea, and I doubt that it's a close call for them.

 

[Dopus]

Everytime I read stuff like this I remember this quote from Machiavelli:

"The Romans never allowed a trouble spot to remain simply to avoid going to war over it, because they knew that wars don't just go away, they are only postponed to someone else's advantage. Therefore, they made war with Philip and Antiochus in Greece, in order not to have to fight them in Italy... They never went by that saying which you constantly hear from the wiseacres of our day, that time heals all things. They trusted rather their own character and prudence — knowing perfectly well that time contains the seeds of all things, good as well as bad."

Taking notes from a barbaric empire, yeah let's go back to that time again. For the greater good, right?

And let's not even think about what the weapons of war are in this age. Some of the posts in this thread... good grief.

 

[UntoldDreams]

NK is essentially a hostage situation... With the hostage count in the multiple millions of innocent "not aligned with crazy man" people.

Everyone thinking we can end this by somehow "blowing them up" without the kill count of millions is being overly simplistic. Similarly, in a hostage situation its TOO easy to say "go ahead and murder the hostages we don't like you" when its not your children being held captive.

 

[Netherscourge]

Prove it's inevitable.
I'm not willing to murder 10 million people on your fucking feelings

And prove that delaying raises casualties

Nobody can prove anything either way. We're discussing possibilities.

Also, murder?

 

[Darth Pinche]

So any idea why it split into 3? Do ICBMs normally do that, or is it another failed one?

Probably a failed missile, BUT they could have been testing a MIRV (Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicle), a way for one missile to target several cities.

 

[KHarvey16]

How is it unlikely, it's already happened.

I assumed the poster meant in a mass attack. A few deaths here and there will not provoke a war that kills millions.

 

[Visualante2]

Fire missiles in NK's general direction as a test.

An expensive test that just emboldens Kim Jong Un's stance.

 

[ThisIsMyDogKyle]

Did anyone film it flying over?

 

[Oriel]

No, this is a first.

The only two other times they've fired something that went over Japan were with SLVs, not a ballistic missile.

North Korea defied demands from Japan, South Korea and the United States not to go ahead with a planned launch of what Pyongyang said would carry into space an experimental communications satellite.

The United States says North Korea launched a Taepodong- 2 missile which flew into the Pacific Ocean over northern Japan.

Japan says no debris has apparently fallen on its territory after what it calls a provocative rocket launch. Japan has called for an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council later in the day to discuss the event, which it and others say violates a U.N. resolution.

https://www.voanews.com/a/a-13-2009-04-05-voa2-68733937/357836.html

 

[Draper]

There is no way this doesn't lead to something. How many will be dead by the end of the week...

The fuck are you talking about

 

[Nicolada]

Yikes. I'm curious about what the general Japanese public thinks of all this.

 

[brian577]

oh come the fuck on

Look at the people in charge and say that again.

 

[Sutton Dagger]

The difference between launching a missile into the ocean compared to over a country (with people getting missile warnings and everything) is monumental. People telling others to calm down/not be frightened are totally misjudging what it must feel like to be the average Japanese citizen right now, especially with the history they have with bombs being dropped on cities. I'd be petrified.

 

[unknownhero]

It makes no sense for North Korea to attack. He wants to keep his kingdom just the way it is and keeping the situation in this state is how he does that. He can't survive a war with the rest of the world. The threat of innocents dying is all that keeps him alive and in power. The instant he kills people he's finished.

you assume that he's a sane leader, very dangerous.

 

[ponpo]

I knew it. You aren't afraid of something escalating. You're itching for it.

Not really, but I'm curious as to what the actual plans of the nations involved are.

Like you said, NK already has killed people and nothing has been done in retaliation because of a worry of the outcome. Is there a number of people that NK is free to kill before nations deem the bad outcomes of war to be acceptable?

I assumed the poster meant in a mass attack. A few deaths here and there will not provoke a war that kills millions.

What do you think the number should be?

I'm not asking for pyongyang to be MIRV'd every time they launch a missile, but sometimes it seems like the threat of NK retaliation - one that would exist whether their attacks kill anyone or not - will always lead some to suggest nothing happen no matter how many people they kill.

 

[Xando]

As the NK ICBM program continues to advance i await the day people call for an invasion of NK when a ICBM lands somewhere close to Hawaii.

 

[Betty]

I assumed the poster meant in a mass attack. A few deaths here and there will not provoke a war that kills millions.

Didn't WW1 start over the death of a single guy.

 

[PantherLotus]

animated:

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DIWRUDrW0AA7J5w.mp4

 

[KHarvey16]

How does flying a missile over Japan maintain what he has? Do you really think there won't be consequences for this?

Diplomatically, maybe. He also knows we have no good options and is leveraging that to make it clear why no one should attack him.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

NK is essentially a hostage situation... With the hostage count in the multiple millions of innocent "not aligned with crazy man" people.

Everyone thinking we can end this by somehow "blowing them up" without the kill count of millions is being overly simplistic. Similarly, in a hostage situation its easy to say "go ahead and murder the hostages we don't like you" when its not your children being held captive.

Its not a hostage situation, its deterrence

 

[Lonewolf_92]

It beats definitely killing a million+ innocent people though. It sucks and it's not a fun situation but that's what it is.

Except, you know, until one of these missiles isn't a test, has a warhead, and drops into a populated area killing a million+ innocent people. We're not dealing with a stable country when it comes to NK here.

 

[Ryouji Gunblade]

Fire missiles in NK's general direction as a test.

Can we give them an unwarranted fireworks show over NK? Nothing dangerous of course, just a classic display of colored gunpowder, as a "prank."

I'd like that, but it's probably too stupid and irresponsible to actually execute.

 

[encephalon]

Sigh. I'm not dismissing this as a thing of nothing. But NK has been doing this for a while now. Kim has everything to lose by attacking a major US ally. These launches always seem to make GAF go into panic mode. Chill out.

A warning went off on my phone that told me to get into a secure building or underground, but ok?