Let's talk about the inevitable: the overpopulation of earth

Do you think that earth eventually will be overcrowded?

  • Isn't it already?

  • Yes, and then drastical measures will be taken

  • No, new innovations will solve everything

  • No, global population will decrease in the future

  • Other


Results are only viewable after voting.

Sybb

Banned
It's not only Japan that has a population problem. Or maybe it's not even a problem, maybe it's good that their population is decreasing. Maybe automation will cover for the lack of young workforce.

Most countries in Europe have women who give birth to less than 2.1 babies on average. That's means most of Europe is decreasing in population, if it wasn't for the mass immigration from countries where the birth rate is very high - mainly North Africa and Middle East.

Our capitalist society is made on the premise of constant growth. Which means more and more people generationg more and more produce. Even China is semi capitalist. But what happens in the end, when there simply are too many people? And what's going to be done about it?

Some people say we need to be more effective, but effectiveness can only take you so far. There's a limit to that. Others say that the richer the countries become, the less children will be born. And going by numbers, this is true. People in rich countries care more about education and career than family. It's easy to see this because first time mothers become older and older. People want to have a stable life first, then they start a family. But many women also discover their biological clock, and that it's getting increasingly difficult to get pregnant after you're 35.

Maybe people have a subconcious sense that the earth is overpopulated, and therefore the instinct to have children is weakened? Or maybe, in strive for constant development, humans have become so advanced that our modern lifestyle has become so demanding that people simply don't have either time nor energy to start a family. People say this is the reason why so many Japanese are uninterested in sexual relationships. They have no energy or time left after all work.

As more and more people are lifted out of poverty due to development, will the earth's population start to fall? And if that happens, will capitalism be destroyed? Or will it simply invent a way to make up for less workforce? What do you think? Will human population shrink naturally, or will force be needed (like 1 child policy and such)?
 
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I've also heard the exact opposite?


I think he's talking about low birth rates and how they threat to destroy growth. People in the west, and some other countries give birth to fewer and fewer babies. Maybe our generation will have to work until we die because there won't be enough money for welfare? There are so many different, possible scenarios here.
 
It depends on what you mean by OVERpopulation.

The planet can probably sustain many billions more people before demand outstrips any possible sustainable supply, but we're talking basic subsistence needs being catered to here, at a level of poverty for all that would be unbearable for most of us currently.

But if you're talking about what the ideal population should be for everyone to have more than they need and have comfortable, safe and easy lives of luxury, ie. The classic 'American Dream', well we already couldn't possibly produce enough food and luxury goods to maintain a western level of wealth and excess for everyone in the world right now.

Hell, with life expectancy falling, disease and mental health issues being on the rise, increasing homelessness, wage stagnation and demand for property pricing most potential buyers out for the market of home ownership, we're arguably already seeing the negative impact of overpopulation having taken us passed the point where the Western World's previous norms are still attainable as a realistic expectation for most people living there.

I do however think things will self-correct eventually though. Globalist Capitalism is very clearly not sustainable, because there is no such thing as truly INFINITE growth, and the lack of competition multinational monopolies are creating will eventually collapse under their own weight.

Couple that with the growing backlash against globalism most nations are seeing in the face of falling living standards, the counter-globalist machinations of more staunchly nationalistic governments such as Russia, India and China, as well as the inevitable conflict dwindling unrenewable or limited resources will cause, and I'd be surprised if War, Famine and Pestilence don't go on a bit of a massive bender round the world with their old buddy Death in the next century and restore a little balance again.
 
IMO overpopulation is a myth used by neoliberals appealing towards our environmental savior complexes by promoting a soft "smart genocide". Usually it's being promoted by the same big tech companies that fucked things up in the first place. That God complex is a hell of a drug.

It's utterly horrific IMO. My big problem with the Avengers finale was how none of the heroes questioned Thanos on his buying into the myth. They more or less agreed with it by never challenging him, they just disagree with his methods. Then again they all have god complexes as well.

Basically it boils down to "I would rather indulge in fantasies of mass killing people off to reduce demand than curb my own consumption"
 
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Interesting.

Things which come to the top of my head.

- Rule of thumb when not counting early death:
- Couples have an average of less than two children: Population decline.
- Couples have an average of two children: Steady population.
- Couples have an average of three or more children: Population growth.

We know the world has many dangers which put a handicap on the above rule of thumb. Counting early death, I wonder if an average of four children per couple would even be enough to curb a population decline?

I can see truth in Musk's question of where will immigrants come from. As the world becomes more developed it's only natural to assume current high birthrate areas will decline.

I think he's talking about low birth rates and how they threat to destroy growth. People in the west, and some other countries give birth to fewer and fewer babies. Maybe our generation will have to work until we die because there won't be enough money for welfare? There are so many different, possible scenarios here.

The thing is, we always should aim to work until we die, regardless of whether our paycheque comes from self-employment, a private employer or a welfare state. This does not mean our work should be hard labour until death. If one is physically healthy then one should step in and do their share of the labour so all the hard work does not get dropped on the shoulders of and kill a small group of people.

AI: I believe the biggest threat from advanced AI will be our own complacency. No doomsday scenarios of AI going Skynet. Ironically, I can see people getting bored and giving rise to more groups like the Amish.
 
It depends on what you mean by OVERpopulation.

The planet can probably sustain many billions more people before demand outstrips any possible sustainable supply, but we're talking basic subsistence needs being catered to here, at a level of poverty for all that would be unbearable for most of us currently.

This is pretty much it.
 
Yeah, going to space when we barely have our shit together down here. The magic space colony just won't inherit the same problems of the motherland.
You're seriously underestimating mankinds ability to create whole new problems whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Seriously though, if we got Planetary Colonisation down pat, we'd likely not have to worry about overpopulation again until we started running out of new worlds to inhabit and resources to exploit within the Sol System. Then we would need to start interstellar colonies, and that would all be a hell of a long way off.
 
I always laugh at all of the justifications that "it's slowing" or "it's going to die off", pretending the world population doesn't continue to increase every year. We can ignore an end result because it gets there incrementally longer than it would have before. Makes any sense to you either? Of course not.

Anyway, my view on this is not a popular one. Humans are destructive to the planet. The amount of resources one person consumes in their lifetime in a developed country, is astronomical. Human life isn't as important as we make it out to be. We fight tooth and nail to save every unwanted baby, criminal, junkie, etc like we will never get that opportunity again. This is one reason why even as a conservative, I'm not completely against abortion. Did the US really need 45+ million more people?

Many areas are already overpopulated. We need to start new cities.
 
Some people are arguing there is no danger of overpopulation because we're actually headed for a population crash and there's nothing that can be done about it.



It's not just in the first world where the replacement rate is toast. The developing world is headed in the same direction.

The basic issue is educated women either don't want to have kids or when they do, they have them later in life and then don't have enough.
 
I'm stuck between "No, we'll find a way to manage" and "No, global population will level off or decrease in the future".

Simply look at the population trends in many modernized countries. They have an extreme shortage of new children being born. The fear of overpopulation is yet another example of naive city-dwellers slowly growing up while they watch more people get crammed into their bubble, reinforcing the belief that "everything is crowded" as they age and desire more solitude than they did when they were younger.

More importantly, innovation is booming in the energy and agricultural sectors which currently enables us to grow more food in smaller plots with less infrastructure. There is already a gold-rush for marginal lands that can be reliably converted over to productive cropland. We can grow vertical towers of nutritious foods in abandoned warehouses.
 
Just look to China.

Everything is fine. Just fine....


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My concern is less about actual overpopulation, and that we here in America are going to keep increasing the number of population of DUMB people. Education is taking such a back seat here, that it disgusts me. I work with a lady who used to be a teacher for years, but quit because she couldn't stand what was happening in the education system, and how she wasn't even allowed to do her job properly. Another reason why I love Japan so much, they actually care about making sure children develop properly, and get a decent education.
 
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Apparently first world countries have the declining population. It's following the behavioral sink experiments done in the 60s. Being in a peaceful stress free environment makes us all self destruct.
 
Some people are arguing there is no danger of overpopulation because we're actually headed for a population crash and there's nothing that can be done about it.



It's not just in the first world where the replacement rate is toast. The developing world is headed in the same direction.

The basic issue is educated women either don't want to have kids or when they do, they have them later in life and then don't have enough.


Very interesting. We had a rough decline for many years in Germany, but the last 2-3 years was definetly a baby boom. Woman dont even wait till their 40s anymore.

What is more sickening, is the fact that so many lonely people are out there. People that give up in their late 20s already. Most people have family, friends or colleagues like that. Woman with a cat or three cats. Guys who spend their time either drinking with other guys or gaming.

In the long run, we might have a population decline, but for now I see loneleyness and mental health as the biggest problems today. Which in return, will not create more babies.
 
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Raising kids and living the Instagram star lifestyle aren't compatible. Either you show your titties for cash and fuck rich dudes on yachts, or you settle down in Omaha with the high school prom king who sells car insurance over the phone. More and more are being attracted to IG life. But in reality, life in Omaha keeps the population up and the machine running.
 
As technology and the quality of living improves birth rates should begin declining in developing countries. Fertility rates are so high in developing countries for a variety of reasons, many of which are greatly reduced once a country reaches a level of development and government.
 
IMO overpopulation is a myth used by neoliberals appealing towards our environmental savior complexes by promoting a soft "smart genocide". Usually it's being promoted by the same big tech companies that fucked things up in the first place. That God complex is a hell of a drug.

It's utterly horrific IMO. My big problem with the Avengers finale was how none of the heroes questioned Thanos on his buying into the myth. They more or less agreed with it by never challenging him, they just disagree with his methods. Then again they all have god complexes as well.

Basically it boils down to "I would rather indulge in fantasies of mass killing people off to reduce demand than curb my own consumption"
yep. There is not a space issue, nor a food issue. You can argue the distribution of food but we currently have the opposite problem, excess. And if such farming problems do arise do you know who can solve this problem? The future children we bare who will come up with even better tech than we have now.
 
Eventually it may become a problem (or will be) in the future. I'll be long dead by then. The people in charge also know that they too will be long dead before it is a direct personal problem. I'd say most users here also know this and they still also don't care. I mean they (certain people) continue to create kids because that is embedded into their dna. Despite knowing that overpopulation and resources will be scarce in their children's lifetime yet here we are. Because you know if I don't do it somebody in India or China still will! Adoption? Too much hassle and it is too expensive unlike you know having kids they aren't expensive at all! Let's keep electing billionaires to pass laws like they did in the 50s when the plastic menace started. Right that's another one, trash/plastic pollution. Doomposting!
 
It's a combination of failure attributed by religion and culture. Religion dictates that abortion is wrong and culture dictates that as an example Filipino families will live 20 family members to a single house, some folks would call that inhumane, Filipino's call that "culture"

How do you win a war against Religion which is a given false narrative or culture which is an established way of being without running into instant conflict with those specific groups that are completely averse to change.

Answer: Kill them

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The world has so much space and resources, it can sustain much more people.

What makes it look like the world can't sustain itself is because there's tons of poor people (especially in poor countries).

For any of you who live in a dense urban city, it looks crowded right? Tons of streets and buildings?

Now go to Google maps and pick your city. It starts out looking crowded. Now start zooming out one click at a time. After a few clicks you'll have a blimp view and suddenly there's shit loads of empty space around it.

I know Canada is different since there's tons of land mass, but just about any country still applies unless it's super small or dense like Japan.

About 8 million people live here in southern Ontario. The big grey area in the middle is Lake Ontario
greater-golden-horseshoe.jpg


Rest of Ontario. 7 million people. The above chart is the tiny spot in the bottom right corner where it says Toronto/Hamilton/401.
Ontario-map.jpg
 
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The world has so much space and resources, it can sustain much more people.

What makes it look like the world can't sustain itself is because there's tons of poor people (especially in poor countries).

For any of you who live in a dense urban city, it looks crowded right? Tons of streets and buildings?

Now go to Google maps and pick your city. It starts out looking crowded. Now start zooming out one click at a time. After a few clicks you'll have a blimp view and suddenly there's shit loads of empty space around it.

I know Canada is different since there's tons of land mass, but just about any country still applies unless it's super small or dense like Japan.

About 8 million people live here in southern Ontario. The big grey area in the middle is Lake Ontario
greater-golden-horseshoe.jpg


Rest of Ontario. 7 million people. The above chart is the tiny spot in the bottom right corner where it says Toronto/Hamilton/401.
Ontario-map.jpg

I mean yea, sure space is one thing, the current problem is the billions of assholes polluting and killing the environment on the regular and acting like the world isn't getting both fucking hotter and colder every year.

Not to get political (about to get political) but if you're an adult living in today's society and can honestly and openly communicate to others that you don't think any of the effects humans are causing to the environment are detrimental, you're really not an adult yet.
 
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Overpopulation is an extreme prediction, I look at the population of earth as a an easy problem to solve, limit the amount of children you can have, China will vouch for that and I'll take my enjoyment in space than living in a hive.
 
I mean yea, sure space is one thing, the current problem is the billions of assholes polluting and killing the environment on the regular and acting like the world isn't getting both fucking hotter and colder every year.

Not to get political (about to get political) but if you're an adult living in today's society and can honestly and openly communicate to others that you don't think any of the effects humans are causing to the environment are detrimental, you're really not an adult yet.
Contrary to what politicians tell you, most adults exercise some degree of environmental awareness. If they didn't we would have trash littered all over our streets, chemicals and oils poured down drains and into ditches, smoking cigarettes inside of buildings, etc.

So it's really just a question of degree. To what degree is a person aware of their environmental impact, and to what degree are they changing their habits? Are you buying things shipped from China? Bad for the environment. Are you eating food grown more than 100 miles away? Bad for the environment. This standard not only applies to your food but to your toothpaste, your shampoo, anything made with textiles, your appliances, and probably your car (or the bus/train you ride on). Are you using the internet? How many of the hops on your internet excursion are powered by coal-fired plants? How many miles of cable are used to send your query? Bad bad bad.

But wait!!!! We haven't even gotten to the typical things politicians finger-wag about. Could it be that modern environmentalism is stuck in a cult-like mentality instead of humbly considering all of the facts? Say it isn't so! I voted for [correct politican] so it means I am absolved of my pollution!
 
Contrary to what politicians tell you, most adults exercise some degree of environmental awareness. If they didn't we would have trash littered all over our streets, chemicals and oils poured down drains and into ditches, smoking cigarettes inside of buildings, etc.

So it's really just a question of degree. To what degree is a person aware of their environmental impact, and to what degree are they changing their habits? Are you buying things shipped from China? Bad for the environment. Are you eating food grown more than 100 miles away? Bad for the environment. This standard not only applies to your food but to your toothpaste, your shampoo, anything made with textiles, your appliances, and probably your car (or the bus/train you ride on). Are you using the internet? How many of the hops on your internet excursion are powered by coal-fired plants? How many miles of cable are used to send your query? Bad bad bad.

But wait!!!! We haven't even gotten to the typical things politicians finger-wag about. Could it be that modern environmentalism is stuck in a cult-like mentality instead of humbly considering all of the facts? Say it isn't so! I voted for [correct politican] so it means I am absolved of my pollution!


If you go on national television and actively deny the existence of scientific facts because it bodes well for your party line, that's a far bigger sabotage to the environment than the poor and uneducated masses throwing trash in the street. I'm neither Democrat nor Republican, but my ears tells me there's a massive number toeing the Republican Party line that if the Earth told us it was dying tomorrow they'd still state otherwise.

The 2 things that Republicans in general toe the line for more than anything is their commitment to religion and culture.
 
Millennial men are lonely, unemployed, terrified of women, live with their parents, don't buy property, don't socialize, don't get married, and don't have kids.

Women are told they are strong and independent and don't need a man and should focus on their careers.

Sex is something to make you feel good and that's it.

Abortion is encouraged.

Universities are ideologically possessed.

Cancel culture and victim culture and social media make our lives even more childish.

Religion is thrown to the wayside and Science is worshipped in its place.

Anyone who disagrees with you is a brutish animal that doesn't deserve to live and should suffer for hurting your feelings.

Young people are told the world will end in x number of years anyway due to climate change.

The president of the united states is held to be worse than Hitler, Stalin, and Mao combined and blamed for all evil in the country.

Young people are told they can and should mutilate themselves to change their sex.

Journalists wage constant war on the truth, forcing political narratives so biased and ridiculous that they can even have the opposite effect of what the journalist intended (similar to what happened with the Joker film).

Life is spent working long hours with people you can't stand for money you will waste.

Morality is based on emotions.

Discipline is shunned.

Laziness is encouraged.

Advertising agencies and the federal government spy on you every day, and it is profitable for them to do so.

Objective truth is denied.

Art is presented as subjective and beyond moral judgment, unless it offends liberal beliefs.

Divorce is commonplace.

Infidelity is normal.

Dating apps exploit lonely millennials for money and simultaneously drive them further apart.

Pornography ensures that the millennials are watching other people have sex instead of doing it themselves.

Welcome to 2020.
 
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If you go on national television and actively deny the existence of scientific facts because it bodes well for your party line, that's a far bigger sabotage to the environment than the poor and uneducated masses throwing trash in the street.
There's a big difference between denying what the current bloc of climate activists claim and denying that humans affect the environment.

For any other topic, one would be wary of being presented such a binary and artificial dichotomy, yet that is exactly how climate zealots frame it, the same people who go on national television and actively spread lies about the world ending in 12 years, lie about the viability of solar and wind, lie about corn ethanol, lie about the need for emission reduction (instead of emission sequestration), etc because it bodes well for your party line (and corporate sponsors).

There's a lot of FUD mixed in with the genuine concerns. Do you acknowledge this is the case or should we continue on this simpleton's path of lumping everyone into one of two groups, climate activists or climate deniers? The lies about climate change are just as destructive as the out-of-hand denial that human pollution has a negative impact. Both types of lies put power into the hands of corporations and orgs that do not have our best interests at heart.

I'm neither Democrat nor Republican, but my ears tells me there's a massive number toeing the Republican Party line that if the Earth told us it was dying tomorrow they'd still state otherwise.
The problem is you believe this must be framed along political lines, which is a symptom that the climate activists are political in nature.

You assume that people get their beliefs about the environment through their political party of choice.

The 2 things that Republicans in general toe the line for more than anything is their commitment to religion and culture.
That is the nature of a conservative party, it conserves.
 
At some point the amount of calories available from the land will be = to the current human population, and there can't be any growth past that. That's arguably going to happen this century. The fact that most of the realistically available arable land to feed the population of the planet is all located within 1 country means that country will wield a large lever of international power over countries that can't feed their overgrown populations without massive food imports.
 
At some point the amount of calories available from the land will be = to the current human population, and there can't be any growth past that. That's arguably going to happen this century. The fact that most of the realistically available arable land to feed the population of the planet is all located within 1 country means that country will wield a large lever of international power over countries that can't feed their overgrown populations without massive food imports.

 
I think we reached at the mouse utopia stage, especially the western and developed asian countries. S.Korea's birthrate is like 0.84 and falling - their population effectively have 0 percent growth.

I'm sure the less developed countries will still have population growth - but it will eventually balanced out by other developed parts losing / slowing their population.
 
I mean yea, sure space is one thing, the current problem is the billions of assholes polluting and killing the environment on the regular and acting like the world isn't getting both fucking hotter and colder every year.

Not to get political (about to get political) but if you're an adult living in today's society and can honestly and openly communicate to others that you don't think any of the effects humans are causing to the environment are detrimental, you're really not an adult yet.
Says the guy who supports mass genocide. Sit your ass down 😂

Overpopulation is one of the stupidest "fears" out there, but it makes dumb people feel smart, so we have to pretend to care about this I guess
 

I don't disagree, but as with all meat farming, it requires an infrastructure of staple-farming to support in large quantities. From the end of the same article:

"These reports reinforce what we already know – consumers worldwide are eating more and more fish," says Ms. Sutter. "With the global aquaculture industry growing so quickly, it will continue to push the demand for quality soybean meal in aquafeeds, one that U.S. Soy is well-positioned to answer."​
 
I can't cite the data for this, but I recall studies being done where as a population reaches a certain level of industrialization and advancement, population growth eventually plateaus to the point where growth stalls. I think it cited Japan as an example, and the US trending towards that direction as well. Was an interesting read. Can't guarantee this but will try to find the paper this was talked about in.

So basically, I think the population will eventually cap out with a 3-5% standard deviation.
 
I don't disagree, but as with all meat farming, it requires an infrastructure of staple-farming to support in large quantities. From the end of the same article:


"These reports reinforce what we already know – consumers worldwide are eating more and more fish," says Ms. Sutter. "With the global aquaculture industry growing so quickly, it will continue to push the demand for quality soybean meal in aquafeeds, one that U.S. Soy is well-positioned to answer."

Yeah, but 40% of our corn goes to biofuel, and there is more in tobacco, hemp, etc. that are not food. It's just which crops are the most profitable, if there is a soy shortage, than that's where the money would be.
 
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