Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Siri said:
I'm working at a care home in B.C. and we're still seeing deaths and illnesses and new positives from both residents and staff. I personally haven't noticed any ease up, though of course this is anecdotal. To me, it feels like we're at the very, very beginning.

Again, just my opinion... completely non-scientific... but I doubt BC has even 5% herd immunity.
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BC is REPORTING low number of new cases and they just said hospitals are flat. But I also think that most of Canada (like France) counts its senior residents differently or outside of other methods. I know in QC they are saying in 519 seniors homes there is at least 1 infection.

Odd and strange question, but lets say BC managed to contain all infections in these seniors residences would you feel comfortable for people who don't work there to go about there normal daily lives (with social distancing, hand washing etc....)?

I really hope you guys aren't fudging numbers because so far you have been one of the best provinces. Are ya'll wearing face masks out there?
 
ManaByte said:
This is bullshit fake news. CA is sending surplus medical equipment to states who need it. Media WANTS a civil war now to oust Trump now that this virus isn't doing it.
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Isn't he talking about the world? There are only 50 states so if he says 70 governments I have to imagine that means world wide ???
 
rykomatsu said:
Someone fails a temperature check, goes home and takes an anti-pyretic. How are you going to handle that?

Even the notion of taking an anti-pyretic breaks a temperature check.
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I agree in terms of feasibility. I wasn't arguing the feasibility or efficacy of temp checks, though. I was only saying that citing HIPAA privacy laws when talking about public temp checks doesn't hold water imo unless that data is catalogued and used in some way (apart from possibly aggregate/anonymized staistics).
 
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  • Russia reports another concerning jump in cases
  • Downing Street offers update on Johnson's condition
  • Abe kicks off Japan's 1-month state of emergency
  • Spain reports jump in deaths following drop over the weekend
  • Wuhan lifts lockdown
  • US death toll tops 11k
  • Italy reports another deceleration in cases + deaths
  • Spanish deaths tick higher
  • UK reports deadliest day yet
  • New York State reports biggest one-day jump in deaths with 731
  • France reports massive jump in deaths breaking above 10k; case total breaks above 100k
  • New Jersey also reports highest fatality numbers
  • Italy reports lowest jump in cases in a month
  • ICU admissions, intubations down significantly in New York
  • US cases accelerate faster than Europe's
  • Turkey delivers COVID-19 update
  • Wuhan residents crowd train platforms as they're finally allowed to leave after 10+ weeks
  • De Blasio says ventilator shortage is easing
  • Israel imposes Passover lockdown, Irish asked not to visit holiday homes for Easter
  • 12 NYPD officers have died of COVID-19
  • Trump admin officials jawbone market higher
  • Peterson poll shows 73% say COVID-19 has hit them in the pocketbook
  • India closes hospitals after cases confirmed
  • China reports no daily deaths for first time
  • German health ministry unveils app to help track COVID-19 patients
  • France prepares to ban jogging as lockdown tightens
 
Captain Zyrain said:
Personally I feel like this is the most dangerous time. Things are generally "looking better" and people see a light at the end of the tunnel, but now everyone is going to get very restless and want to get things back to normal ASAP.. and if we jump the gun, we risk going right back into exponential spread mode.
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Gut feeling I would t be surprised if this happens.
I'm going to stay away from bars, restaurants, and group gatherings.
Sorry government, I'm not listening to your ass that everything is fine.
 
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Steve.1981 said:
That's not what those links say.

I'm starting to wonder if you're being irresponsible now.
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This is getting tiresome.

It shows that the figures released by the government are on average a lot lower than the figures officially recorded as having died on the day the government gives those figures. It explains that this is because there's a lag between the daily announcements and the time when those deaths are registered.

For example, on 25 March the government figure released a daily death toll of 515. By the 5th April the NHS had registered 1,067 as having died on 25 March (just hospital deaths). By 1 April the ONS recorded 1,111 deaths registered as dying on 25 March.

Deaths aren't always registered on the day the person dies. According to the ONS almost twice as many people died on 25 March from this virus than the figure released by the government on that date. Not because anyone is lying, but because the government figures are always a bit behind the actual figure.
 
ManaByte said:
This is bullshit fake news. CA is sending surplus medical equipment to states who need it. Media WANTS a civil war now to oust Trump now that this virus isn't doing it.
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I am guessing this is countries governments, not state governments. By all accounts, the US states are cooperating nicely with each other.
 
Karma Jawa said:
This is getting tiresome.

It shows that the figures released by the government are on average a lot lower than the figures officially recorded as having died on the day the government gives those figures. It explains that this is because there's a lag between the daily announcements and the time when those deaths are registered.

For example, on 25 March the government figure released a daily death toll of 515. By the 5th April the NHS had registered 1,067 as having died on 25 March (just hospital deaths). By 1 April the ONS recorded 1,111 deaths registered as dying on 25 March.

Deaths aren't always registered on the day the person dies. According to the ONS almost twice as many people died on 25 March from this virus than the figure released by the government on that date. Not because anyone is lying, but because the government figures are always a bit behind the actual figure.
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Why are you ignoring my post that showed the COVID-19 deaths through March 27th were actually lower than initially reported? What are you doing?

Unless I'm wildly misreading something (please point that out if so), I think your numbers are completely off based on the official sources you are citing...
 
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Zefah said:
Wasn't hard to look into this.

March 27th update:


759 reported deaths (and it only looked at hospitalized deaths)

April 7th report on numbers up through March 27th:

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the latest weeks.
www.ons.gov.uk

539 reported deaths (and it looked at the total, including those outside of hospital).

539 is 71% of 759, which means the initially reported deaths were higher than they actually turned out to be, not that the actual numbers were 70% higher than initially reported.

Am I missing something?
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I think the second source states weekly numbers and the first one is quoting a cumulative number (that's what I saw at a glance anyway, could be mistaken).
 
MasterDerico said:
Stop blaming china, stop with conspiracy theories.

Wake up to the reality and find your deep intuition and spirituality. There's nothing you can do now, just reflection.

The world pushed the handbrake.

Time to stop and think on more important things than money, politics, ideology.
It's time to be a better person, to contact the light.
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I think you might mistake "blame CCP" with "blame Chinese people", sane and rational persons would not equalize those two.

While an ordinary person like myself blaming China is of no use to my mental health, as I acknowledge that blaming is an innate weakness of human gene, nor does blaming China help the continually worsen number in US, I do think checking what is CCP's wrongdoing is for the common good.

One of the reasons is that, on twitter, it is known (from congress public hearings) that Russia and China both have state-aided twitter bots spreading propaganda. If you observe some retweets praise China's effort on battling SARS-Cov-2 while bashing western countries' governments' incompetence, without acknowledging that China has the authoritarian social infrastructure to impose a military lockdown at Wuhan and much more stringent social-distancing measure (temperature checking at community/public entrances for non-epicenter cities), then you could keep in mind it is statistically possible that this is a bot.
 
Karma Jawa said:
For example, on 25 March the government figure released a daily death toll of 515. By the 5th April the NHS had registered 1,067 as having died on 25 March (just hospital deaths). By 1 April the ONS recorded 1,111 deaths registered as dying on 25 March.
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Am I brave enough to ask, again, for a link to something official (not a tabloid article) where I can confirm these numbers. Because I've looked & I can't find it.

I'm not the sharpest tool in the box, but I'll get there. I apologise if you're getting tired.
 
Zefah said:
Why are you ignoring my post that showed the COVID-19 deaths through March 27th were actually lower than initially reported? What are you doing?

Unless I'm wildly misreading something (please point that out if so), I think your numbers are completely off based on the official sources you are citing...
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I'm looking at the graph. You can move it along for the days up to 27 March, and it shows that when accounting for additional days for deaths to be registered, the real daily figures are a lot higher than those provided by the government. Especially because the ONS also include home deaths.

For example, tomorrow the government might announce a daily death toll of 1k based on info provided by the various hospitals around the UK. By Saturday another 500 deaths may have been registered as having died on tomorrow's date (including home deaths). The ONS would use that figure as the official number of deaths on tomorrow's date.

Maybe I'm colour blind and mixing up the different lines, but that's my interpretation and also the interpretation of a number of British newspapers.

I think we'd all expect the total numbers to be higher than those being announced anyway. Sadly there would have been a lot of people who died of the virus today who's death hasn't yet been discovered, or which hasn't officially been registered.
 
Ok I don't know how to link stuff on a phone. Here's a quote taken directly from the Office for National Statistics website,

"In the three weeks up to March 27th, there were 647 deaths in England and Wales involving Covid-19 (397 men and 250 women)."

That's a direct quote. Feel free to look it up.

So Karma Jawa Karma Jawa I'm not understanding where you're much larger numbers are coming from.
 
Karma Jawa said:
I'm looking at the graph. You can move it along for the days up to 27 March, and it shows that when accounting for additional days for deaths to be registered, the real daily figures are a lot higher than those provided by the government. Especially because the ONS also include home deaths.

For example, tomorrow the government might announce a daily death toll of 1k based on info provided by the various hospitals around the UK. By Saturday another 500 deaths may have been registered as having died on tomorrow's date (including home deaths). The ONS would use that figure as the official number of deaths on tomorrow's date.

Maybe I'm colour blind and mixing up the different lines, but that's my interpretation and also the interpretation of a number of British newspapers.

I think we'd all expect the total numbers to be higher than those being announced anyway. Sadly there would have been a lot of people who died of the virus today who's death hasn't yet been discovered, or which hasn't officially been registered.
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This literally does not compute.

We have two plain-as-day numbers for COVID-19 deaths. One from the government's provisional update on March 27th that only applied to hospital deaths, and one reconciled report that accounted for all deaths, including those those in the home, and broke out the COVID-19 deaths from the big picture. The reconciled number was lower than the provisional one.

How are you using that number to say that actual deaths are 70% higher than initially reported? You're just going by that article that provides no source and suspiciously seems to be a misunderstanding by a math-impaired individual?
 
cryptoadam said:
You guys aren't in lockdown?
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Not full lockdown. You can move around freely if you are healthy.
But i expect full lockdown today or at least in the next 3 weeks as in everyone has to stay home.
My business is still considered essential but it might change.
 
Jtibh said:
Not full lockdown. You can move around freely if you are healthy.
But i expect full lockdown today or at least in the next 3 weeks as in everyone has to stay home.
My business is still considered essential but it might change.
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Well to be optimisitic if you do go into lockdown its probably to stamp the final bit of virus out. I remember when you guys had more cases then us. We were at less than 100, you guys had just above 100. Now here we are at 9K and Alberta hasn't even gotten to 1.5K.

Trust me you wouldn't rather be living in the epicenter of Canada.
 
Ok I'm not sitting here all night waiting for a reply from Karma Jawa Karma Jawa

If there's some misunderstanding here, I'm sure we'll sort it out. But I've got other things to do. I just don't get those crazy high numbers you're talking about.
 
cryptoadam said:
Well to be optimisitic if you do go into lockdown its probably to stamp the final bit of virus out. I remember when you guys had more cases then us. We were at less than 100, you guys had just above 100. Now here we are at 9K and Alberta hasn't even gotten to 1.5K.

Trust me you wouldn't rather be living in the epicenter of Canada.
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This where the economic impact comes to play.

You see for me i get jack shit if i am denied work.
Infact i will loose soo much money i will have to close my doors if it comes to that.
Work or no work i still have to pay my overhead and the work i would have would have to be delayed or cancelled.
My only option is to pitch a tent in my bay and wait it out but then i wont see my family.

Nah this will be major shit for me
 
Empty shelves at stores all over. I'm having to cook what's left or order food, the latter which is very expensive.

I'm okay with living on cup ramen but that's not even an option ffs.
 
Steve.1981 said:
Ok I'm not sitting here all night waiting for a reply from Karma Jawa Karma Jawa

If there's some misunderstanding here, I'm sure we'll sort it out. But I've got other things to do. I just don't get those crazy high numbers you're talking about.
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I have a feeling he doesn't intend to address it directly. He got some talking points from his media of choice, which seem to fly in the face of the data available, but rather than change his mind, I fear he's just going to stick to the talking points.
 
Darkmakaimura said:
Empty shelves at stores all over. I'm having to cook what's left or order food, the latter which is very expensive.

I'm okay with living on cup ramen but that's not even an option ffs.
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Where do you live? In my neighborhood, the grocery stores are extremely well stocked (based on my 2 trips this week), including the toilet paper.
 
Jonsoncao said:
Where do you live? In my neighborhood, the grocery stores are extremely well stocked (based on my 2 trips this week), including the toilet paper.
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Vegas. Everything is on lockdown here. Perhaps certain areas are better than others but on my end of town it's bad.
 
Bit of bright news today: a bunch of statistically significant people will be tested for the virus to know the general population status. Results will come in 3 weeks and then the first measures of de-lockdowning might begin.
 
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Rock And Roll said:
New cases are going down/holding steady in Ontario but there's been a sharp decline in tests.

I have been a bit skeptical of numbers from across Canada (not saying its a government cover up or anything, just I don't think we're getting the full picture). I think we're on the right track, but we need more testing to get an accurate reading of where we are at.
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Thats my concern, that there is something funky going on with the tests. The only one I have confidence in is my province. We have also done the most test (over 100K now) and we even include anyone who has symptoms and was in contact with a positive case as infected.

But Ontario there numbers always felt off. I find it a bit hard to believe that they have less cases then us in Quebec when taking into account population size and Toronto vs Montreal as far as being a hub etc....
 
cryptoadam said:
Thats my concern, that there is something funky going on with the tests. The only one I have confidence in is my province. We have also done the most test (over 100K now) and we even include anyone who has symptoms and was in contact with a positive case as infected.

But Ontario there numbers always felt off. I find it a bit hard to believe that they have less cases then us in Quebec when taking into account population size and Toronto vs Montreal as far as being a hub etc....
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No one is tracking the pandemic anymore solely based on total cases. No major province, including Quebec, is testing mild cases anymore, although that may change as work load for labs diminishes. Every jurisidiction in the world has way more cases then are officially announced. At the end of the day, deaths, ICU admissions, hospital admissions will be a better indicator of how prevalent the disease is due to constantly shifting criteria for testing. All of this will have to be interpreted with an understanding of how the disease presents and kills.

Ontario was slow to get its testing capacity up, and now that it has ramped up there aren't that many people to test because the current criteria limits testing to high risk people. I anticipate the criteria will loosen up now. We may see a an increase in diagnosed people for that reason, but people on this forum have to understand that the primary purpose of testing is not to track the pandemic. or feed your insatiable curiosity. Its for health professionals to isolate, protect services, and perform contact tracing.


EDITED the above may not apply to smaller province/jurisdictions with only a small amount of cases
 
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Zefah said:
This literally does not compute.

We have two plain-as-day numbers for COVID-19 deaths. One from the government's provisional update on March 27th that only applied to hospital deaths, and one reconciled report that accounted for all deaths, including those those in the home, and broke out the COVID-19 deaths from the big picture. The reconciled number was lower than the provisional one.
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I'm sorry that I'm repeating myself but:
Q4OPVyC.png

The 539 and 759 are different numbers because they're over different time periods. I don't know if it has anything to do with what the other dude is talking about, doubt we'll find out.
 
Anecdotally, NYC has the best health care around the world, yet in this video, the ICU doctors are wearing ski-goggles to protect themselves...

 
eot said:
I'm sorry that I'm repeating myself but:
Q4OPVyC.png

The 539 and 759 are different numbers because they're over different time periods. I don't know if it has anything to do with what the other dude is talking about, doubt we'll find out.
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Thank you for pointing that out.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.
www.ons.gov.uk

Here's the previous week.

The number of death registrations involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased from 5 in week 11 to 103 in week 12.
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So, 103 more deaths brings us up to a cumulative total of 642. Either way, it's still lower than the provisional numbers reported on March 27th.
 
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008 said:
I laughed

Some people on here have a raging boner for an old, fat guy with tits, who uses fake tan lotion and hair coloring
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Are you judging me by my sexual preferences?

dont you know the T in LGBTQ stands for Trumposexuals?

Were people too and I won't allow your bigotry and Trumpaphobia to stand.
 
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Zefah said:
Thank you for pointing that out.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.
www.ons.gov.uk

Here's the previous week.

So, 103 more deaths brings us up to a cumulative total of 642. Either way, it's still lower than the provisional numbers reported on March 27th.
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I dunno if this is the reason, but the tweet that mentions 759 deaths talks about the entire UK, whereas the government website you found only gives the numbers for England and Wales (not Scotland or Northern Ireland)
 
Zefah said:
I have a feeling he doesn't intend to address it directly. He got some talking points from his media of choice, which seem to fly in the face of the data available, but rather than change his mind, I fear he's just going to stick to the talking points.
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He's a 'character' calling everyone else an extremist while using phrases like 'Boris the butcher'. You are not dealing with a rational being.
 
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