Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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That's for Microsoft to decipher. In the meantime, they're continuing putting Xbox hardware in datacenters to reach a large audience.

An audience that doesn't exist and where they do exist they have no buying power.

Homer Simpson Love GIF by Robert E Blackmon
 
Comparing number of people with Sony harware vs number of people with sofware accounts. Here is the failing in math.

A fair comparison is to compare hardware with hardware, which is PS4/5, PC vs XSX/S, PC, phones, tablets.
 
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That's not my argument. My argument is that Microsoft claims that these acquisitions allow them to make these games available to more people than ever before. That's not true.

Scenario #1 -- If Zenimax remained independent

Zenimax games would have been available to:
  • 135 million PlayStation users
  • 65 million Xbox users
  • 120 million Steam users
  • Total = 320 million users
Scenario #2 -- After Microsoft acquired Zenimax

Zenimax games would now be available to:
  • 65 million Xbox users
  • 120 million Steam users
  • 25 million Gamepass/xCloud users
  • Total = 210 million uses (and that's despite counting XGP/xCloud users totally separate from Steam and Xbox users, although there is a huge overlap).

It's 320 million vs. 210 million. Microsoft's acquisitions are reducing the total number of gamers who will have access to these games, not increasing them.
Question, is there a reason you excluded Nintendo from this equation? Far as I can see, the Microsoft scenario works because they just signed a 10 year agreement with Nintendo. What is that over another 100 million?
 
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I don't see anyone thinking it's not going to happen. We know how this shit works.

Should happen or "good for the industry," however? That is a whole other bag of skittles.
I actually think there is a fair chance it will not happen. It all depends on the proposed remedies and if Microsoft is willing to agree to them.

All this talk of streaming as well has me thinking how much regulators like a streaming world where Microsoft is leveraging Azure, Windows, GamePass, Xbox, and multiple developers/publishers they would own. Apple just had its walled garden knocked down so I can't see European regulators being too happy about letting Microsoft build a new one.
 
People really think console and PC gamers who play AAA games and those who predominantly play on mobile phones are the same audience huh?
Steam most used GPU is 1060. In many cases, cloud gaming can give better performance than that. Before getting a 3080, i had a 970 and i couldn't play many new games, so i subscribed to GF Now and i enjoyed new games more than i could have enjoy them on 970. So cloud gaming doesn't mean only people with phones.
 
Steam most used GPU is 1060. In many cases, cloud gaming can give better performance than that. Before getting a 3080, i had a 970 and i couldn't play many new games, so i subscribed to GF Now and i enjoyed new games more than i could have enjoy them on 970. So cloud gaming doesn't mean only people with phones.

Travel more.
 
Travel more.
The GF Now servers are not in my country, but i have 1GB internet connection.

And do you think the ping would mind ppl who plays on low-medium settings on their hardware? There is an entire world out there with gamers that play on low settings who would trade ping/latency for higher settings.
 
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I actually think there is a fair chance it will not happen. It all depends on the proposed remedies and if Microsoft is willing to agree to them.

All this talk of streaming as well has me thinking how much regulators like a streaming world where Microsoft is leveraging Azure, Windows, GamePass, Xbox, and multiple developers/publishers they would own. Apple just had its walled garden knocked down so I can't see European regulators being too happy about letting Microsoft build a new one.
Sony has a vastly larger walled garden, so if anything, this makes it more even.
 
The GF Now servers are not in my country, but i have 1GB internet connection.

Amazing. And there are plenty of people who don't have strong or stable Internet connections. Beyond that GF Now isn't even available where I live.

Just trying to play Hitman 3 last night I had issues with being able to log in to the servers and people are sat here advocating cloud gaming for the masses for no reason other than "it works for me".

If it were so amazing then everyone would be doing it and the companies that provide the service wouldn't be having to give it away (or bundle it with other services) in order to get people to try it.
 
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That's not my argument. My argument is that Microsoft claims that these acquisitions allow them to make these games available to more people than ever before. That's not true.

Scenario #1 -- If Zenimax remained independent

Zenimax games would have been available to:
  • 135 million PlayStation users
  • 65 million Xbox users
  • 120 million Steam users
  • Total = 320 million users
Scenario #2 -- After Microsoft acquired Zenimax

Zenimax games would now be available to:
  • 65 million Xbox users
  • 120 million Steam users
  • 25 million Gamepass/xCloud users
  • Total = 210 million uses (and that's despite counting XGP/xCloud users totally separate from Steam and Xbox users, although there is a huge overlap).

It's 320 million vs. 210 million. Microsoft's acquisitions are reducing the total number of gamers who will have access to these games, not increasing them.
Technically it would increase availability as it would be available to billions of mobile phone users/gamers.

But just because it is available, doesn't mean people will engage.

Anyway, is there actual news or updates recently?
 
Great conversation

Think you are being a bit generous

I actually think there is a fair chance it will not happen. It all depends on the proposed remedies and if Microsoft is willing to agree to them.

All this talk of streaming as well has me thinking how much regulators like a streaming world where Microsoft is leveraging Azure, Windows, GamePass, Xbox, and multiple developers/publishers they would own. Apple just had its walled garden knocked down so I can't see European regulators being too happy about letting Microsoft build a new one.

Not yet knocked down, a decent chunk of the bricks have been removed.

The issue still stands that EC as it stands doesn't see 'streaming' as a separate market. I can see xbox/playstation/others being included into the DMA further down the road.
 
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That's not my argument. My argument is that Microsoft claims that these acquisitions allow them to make these games available to more people than ever before. That's not true.

Scenario #1 -- If Zenimax remained independent

Zenimax games would have been available to:
  • 135 million PlayStation users
  • 65 million Xbox users
  • 120 million Steam users
  • Total = 320 million users
Scenario #2 -- After Microsoft acquired Zenimax

Zenimax games would now be available to:
  • 65 million Xbox users
  • 120 million Steam users
  • 25 million Gamepass/xCloud users
  • Total = 210 million uses (and that's despite counting XGP/xCloud users totally separate from Steam and Xbox users, although there is a huge overlap).

It's 320 million vs. 210 million. Microsoft's acquisitions are reducing the total number of gamers who will have access to these games, not increasing them.
Sorry dude, that's very flawed.
You are saying that Microsoft makes every license it acquires exclusive. That's false.
The games that MS chooses to make exclusive remain available to way more users that Sony's exclusives are
Becoming a Game Pass subscription does not require a 700 bucks console. My tablet + 1$ is all I need to play Starfield. That's a lower barrier of entry than before the acquisition, not higher.
You are misguided.
 
I'm not the one who keeps getting ridiculous tags like yours. You said MS are the only platform holder who bring their IP to other platforms. I only told you that's not true, that very few companies buy "their IP" and the very few cases that they do others release on other platforms too if the publisher/studio was already. You've got your MS pom poms out though trying to still argue.
Blah blah... you have a tag... You can't make a coherent argument without getting into lame ad hominems. I never said said MS was the only platform holder that put their IP on platforms they do not own. I said no other platforms do it more so complaining about MS withholding content from other platforms is ridiculous. Even more ridiculous considering other platforms have plenty of exclusives both first and third party so being upset when MS gets exclusives is silly.
You spoke about Zenimax because you were trying to suggest that Bungie is about keeping already released games multiplatform and say how it isn't the same as Minecraft. Then when I showed that future games release multiplatform too you started talking about who "did it first" which again was wrong but it seems you're desperate for your MS medal or something.
Wrong. Again. I spoke about ZeniMax because they continued supporting games that were on other platforms just like you suggested Bungie continuing to support Destiny on Xbox meant something special. MS set the precedent with ZeniMax and is setting a further precedent with CoD and the contracts they are willing to sign with multiple companies including ones that don't even have CoD currently.

This is far different from a vague promise of 'multiplatform support' Bungie put out but you are willing to accept them at their word. Again you are doing some 'pom pom waving' too just for your preferred platform. Your lack of self awareness is pretty humorous.

No. Gamepass/xCloud has a maximum of 25 million users.

With this acquisition, Microsoft is making these games available to 25 million users and taking games away from ~150 million PlayStation users. So that's a net reduction of ~125 million gamers.
I disagree. Twenty-five million current users is not a cap. That is the current user base not the full extent of the reach of the service. It is far easier to get on Game pass than to purchase a PlayStation. Anyone who has internet can get on Game pass and you can use existing equipment. You must purchase PlayStation hardware to use their ecosystem. Again if Sony had a functional browser on PS5 that would be an additional vector to Game pass so that is on Sony to address. I highly doubt MS would block access.
I think Mojang, who had sold 50m copies of Minecraft at the time of Microsoft's buy out, could fund new projects independently.
Any evidence to prove those titles were in development before the acquisition?
 
We still pretending Xcloud doesn't have an incredibly small userbase?
but you have to understand it has a massive potential user base and that's why MS isn't BSing about bringing games to more gamers by buying companies and ending support for PlayStation /s

just ignore the people pushing the claims about billions of people with phones, at best they've just drunk massive marketing koolaid & at worse they are the marketing
 
We still pretending Xcloud doesn't have an incredibly small userbase?
It's crazy that the media are always trying to make us believe that the gap between PS and Xbox sales is negligeable; some fanboys with a large following even say that Xbox is slightly ahead in terms of sales.
 
We still pretending Xcloud doesn't have an incredibly small userbase?
I just love that power user enthusiasts who hated streaming, latency, bad IQ, need that VRR 120Hz and lowest input lag ever, now push it. I wonder what changed? Around the same time they push an anemic box to boot that is supposed to last another 3 to 4 years. Huh. Something is amiss. :messenger_weary::messenger_ok:
 
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The extended deadline means that MS now has to decide if it will risk another Billion Dollars pursuing this deal even though they would have to litigate the merits of the deal after closing (absent a settlement and/or an extension beyond all regulatory and court challenges). Before this extension, MS only had to decide if it would risk another 1/2 Billion in the short term while waiting to see how many fights they really have to get this approved. As an aside, the reason is that the termination fee goes from 2 Billion now, to 2.5 Billion on 1/18. And then from 2.5 Billion to 3 Billion on 4/18. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...icrosoft-buyout-deal-is-terminated-2022-01-19 is the source for the escalating fees.

Some people seem confident the CMA will approve this. Maybe they will, but this delay alone puts MS in a really tough spot. Having to bet another BILLION dollars on approval with one challenge already started in baby steps phase, and another major country's decision reserved until after the bet locks in, is an incredibly difficult decision I would think.

Right now I wouldn't be shocked if top MS people are already setting up meetings to discuss whether to let gaming continue this pursuit. Of course, they are such a big company maybe they couldn't care less about the risk. But one thing seems sure, and that is EU now has more power than anyone in this deal today. If EU says no, or delays decision until after 4/18, then I bet MS walks.
 
Question, is there a reason you excluded Nintendo from this equation? Far as I can see, the Microsoft scenario works because they just signed a 10 year agreement with Nintendo. What is that over another 100 million?
1) I just didn't want to further complicate this conversation, as some people would have argued why I'm including Nintendo as not every Zenimax game is released on Nintendo. Either way, Nintendo would have featured on both lists, so the net effect would be 0.

2) We were talking primarily about Zenimax/Bethesda games at that point, and MS hasn't made any contract and even indicated to bring Zenimax games to Nintendo. In fact, the intent is the opposite, i.e., to make Zenimax content exclusive to Xbox consoles and PC, so Nintendo is out of the equation anyway.

 
any evidence to prove they couldn't have been made without MS funding? as someone who made that statement and said it's a fact I think the onus is on you to prove that?
Precedence.

https://www.gamesradar.com/psychona...-game-after-xbox-acquisition-says-developers/

There is historical evidence that studios that MS has purchased has improved their products and made them considerably better. Can you provide evidence to the contrary?

Interesting to see so many attempt to downplay the obvious improvements MS has made to games when they acquire a studio. I guess that's why the addition of CoD to Nintendo platforms is being dismissed despite the fact those games wouldn't come without MS' support.
 
Precedence.

https://www.gamesradar.com/psychona...-game-after-xbox-acquisition-says-developers/

There is historical evidence that studios that MS has purchased has improved their products and made them considerably better. Can you provide evidence to the contrary?
You can't even make a coherent point sometimes.

You said; Minecraft Dungeons and Legends wouldn't have been made without MS's backing.

We aren't talking about improving games or making them better.

In your mind would Mojang have just never made another game ever again?

Interesting to see so many attempt to downplay the obvious improvements MS has made to games when they acquire a studio. I guess that's why the addition of CoD to Nintendo platforms is being dismissed despite the fact those games wouldn't come without MS' support.
You do a lot of rambling to see what shit will stick - I've never said any of that waffle so I'll leave that one hanging there.
 
The extended deadline means that MS now has to decide if it will risk another Billion Dollars pursuing this deal even though they would have to litigate the merits of the deal after closing (absent a settlement and/or an extension beyond all regulatory and court challenges). Before this extension, MS only had to decide if it would risk another 1/2 Billion in the short term while waiting to see how many fights they really have to get this approved. As an aside, the reason is that the termination fee goes from 2 Billion now, to 2.5 Billion on 1/18. And then from 2.5 Billion to 3 Billion on 4/18. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...icrosoft-buyout-deal-is-terminated-2022-01-19 is the source for the escalating fees.

Some people seem confident the CMA will approve this. Maybe they will, but this delay alone puts MS in a really tough spot. Having to bet another BILLION dollars on approval with one challenge already started in baby steps phase, and another major country's decision reserved until after the bet locks in, is an incredibly difficult decision I would think.

Right now I wouldn't be shocked if top MS people are already setting up meetings to discuss whether to let gaming continue this pursuit. Of course, they are such a big company maybe they couldn't care less about the risk. But one thing seems sure, and that is EU now has more power than anyone in this deal today. If EU says no, or delays decision until after 4/18, then I bet MS walks.
MS is already confident. They don't care about that payouts, considering the prize that is in front of them.
 
Again, you are talking about "potential customers".
"Potential Customers" is what you've been referring to this entire time. Despite it being pointed out to you several times, by several different people... You continue to stand behind your bad math.
Well, two can play at that game. There are 8 billion people in the world, and they can buy a PS5, so Microsoft is taking Zenimax games away from 8 billion PlayStation gamers.

See how that sounds?
It sounds just as absurd as your other figures. So it's about par for the course. You're assuming that by "having access", that every PS5 user would get the game for free. That's never been the case before, so why do you insist on this being the case now? PS5 users would have to pay for the game in order access it, just like anyone who has access to Gamepass can pay to access it.
Edit. Well, I've presented my arguments with actual numbers, and I'm done. If somebody doesn't want to see or accept this, I can't make them. Cheerio.
Ah, good edit. Take that L buddy.
 
Personally don't think MS is massively worried about the 500m, (the difference between 1/19 and 4/19). Its big money but think they would see it was worth the risk especially when they made 21,500m in OI in the last quarter.



Should add 'RT or embeds ain't endorsements'

I guess we are twiddling our thumbs for a little while now.
 
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Personally don't think MS is massively worried about the 500m, (the difference between 1/19 and 4/19). Its big money but think they would see it was worth the risk especially when they made 21,500m in OI in the last quarter.



I guess we are twiddling our thumbs for a little while now.

They are playing with words now. You can protect consumers by promoting competition, that does not mean you are protecting the latter. And they're role is for both:

This creates the Agency's two primary missions: protecting competition and protecting consumers.
 
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You can't even make a coherent point sometimes.

You said; Minecraft Dungeons and Legends wouldn't have been made without MS's backing.

We aren't talking about improving games or making them better.

In your mind would Mojang have just never made another game ever again?
How many different Minecraft spinoff games did Mojang make before the acquisition? My point is MS acquisitions significantly change what studios are capable of than before they were acquired. That includes improved scope of titles and brand new titles. Just like CoD hitting Nintendo platforms when was not planned before the acquisition. Games aren't free to develop so obviously the additional funding made those games possible. Sorry you couldn't put those ideas together.
You do a lot of rambling to see what shit will stick - I've never said any of that waffle so I'll leave that one hanging there.
If the shoe fits wear it. I never claimed Banjo64 Banjo64 said anything. I was making a broader point about what many here have claimed.


Pretty doubtful that the PlayStation brand won't be competitive after this acquisition.
 
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