I posted a pretty detailed summary on what I believe will happen regardless of whether the deal goes through or not, so I figured lets keep the discussion going on someone else's posts on this.
So, lets talk point 1. From my knowledge, MS hasn't really minded how much Phil has asked them to invest into his vision of what Xbox could be, or rather, the service-ification of Xbox. The time table for evaluation that Phil and MS leadership has operated on is that it would take about a decade or so, and they are giving him that decade, which puts their evaluation timetable for all of this for sometime in 2027. Now, it has to be said that no one company wants to hand another company a few billion dollars over and get nothing for it, but they have had LOADS of wasteful spending thus far and MS hasn't batted an eye. For the larger US businesses, having a merger blocked will simply mark a sea-change in the corporate world; the impact of this block will spread to other sectors besides gaming.
As for point 2 - nothing much will change for ABK. Part of the reason the sale even happened was a combination of the civil suits and labor investigations that were happening on the back of missing release target windows for big titles and revenue targets for titles that were releasing. Since then, CoD has had a strong bounce back thanks to the initial reception of Modern Warfare 2 and Blizzard seemingly rediscovering how to ship some titles, but it seems the impact of both of these big releases ABK management was banking on is going to wind up being far more muted than they'd like (we'll really only see how this is gonna go sometime next year when we get the revenue totals for how well MW2 and OW2 do this year).
As for Phil, the corporate culture within MS is such that dropping Phil will be seen as a massive vote of no confidence in Xbox's direction and the entire division itself. Much like they did with Bonnie Ross, they will create a narrative that pushes him out and promote a typical MS sycophant from within to take his place. I've worked both with and for MS in the past, have loads of colleagues who have as well, and the number 1 thing that gets you ahead there is being a kool-aid guzzling corporate cheerleader. Its part of the reason why they are almost always out-of-touch when it comes to selling products to general consumers and not enterprise consumers.
Honestly, given that we are likely going to see one of the biggest investment shifts ever witnessed into AI in the next 2 years, I imagine MS will take the majority of the funds saved should this deal get blocked and re-invest all of it into pursuing AI applications and R&D in order to get them to start catching up to the big players in the space. We are on the advent of this tech completely changing our society the way the internet did in the 90s/2000s. MS is not where they should be relative to the bigger players. They are gonna seek to catch up and hard this year.